Unit 4 Plan

Title of Unit
Subject
Developed By

Intro to Inference - T-Test

Grade Level

Math/ Probability and Statistics

Time Frame

12th
2 weeks

Charles Roth and Cali Pantazis

Stage 1 - Identify Desired Results

Transfer
What kinds of long-term independent accomplishments are desired?
To be able to understand inference statistics.
To be able to identify when to use a t-test, and be able to use a t-test.
Learning Outcomes
What relevant goals will this unit address?
To understand how scientists use probability and statistics to make decisions.
To understand that sometimes observed results are due to randomness and sometimes because of an actual difference.
To understand that when we are trying to compare two groups, and we can find the mean of each group, we can use the t-test to find
the probability the results happening due to random variability.
Enduring Understandings
Essential Questions
What understandings about the big ideas are desired? (what you
What provocative questions will foster inquiry into the content?
want students to understand & be able to use several years from
(open-ended questions that stimulate thought and inquiry linked
now)
to the content of the enduring understanding)
What misunderstandings are predictable?
Students will understand that...
Content specific.
Probability is used to calculate the likelihood of an event.
How can we use probability to determine the likelihood of an
Scientists never prove anything, but can show the
event occurring?
probability of getting certain results, and then use that
probability to make a decision.
When do you determine whether your experiment gave
When comparing two samples where the mean can be
significant results?
measured, a t-test is the appropriate statistical test to use.
Related misconceptions
0.50 critical value Students think that whichever result is
more likely is the one that is stated as true.
Students will think that the Null Hypothesis is an educated
prediction of results.
Low probability = accept NH

How can we compare two samples of data?

Knowledge:
What knowledge will student acquire as a result of this unit? This
content knowledge may come from the indicators, or might also
address pre-requisite knowledge that students will need for this
unit.

Skills
What skills will students acquire as a result of this unit? List the
skills and/or behaviors that students will be able to exhibit as a
result of their work in this unit. These will come from the
indicators.

Students will understand...

Students will be able to

that the Null Hypothesis is always that there is no difference between two
groups and is NOT an educated prediction of results.
that the p-value is the probability of getting the observed results if the Null
Hypothesis is true.
that the purpose of these statistical tests is to determine whether observed
differences are due to random variability (such as getting 52 heads when
flipping a fair coin 100 times, instead of the expected 50) OR due to an
actual difference.
to use a t-test when comparing two samples where the mean can be
measured.

Given a situation, write a Null Hypothesis.

Given a the probability of getting observed results (p-value), determine
whether to Reject of Fail to Reject the Null Hypothesis.
Given a set of data, determine whether a t-test is appropriate.
Given a set of data, use the t-test to determine the p-value.

Stage 2 Assessment Evidence

Performance Task
Through what authentic performance task will students demonstrate the desired understandings, knowledge, and skills? (describes the
learning activity in story form. Typically, the P.T. describes a scenario or situation that requires students to apply knowledge and skills
to demonstrate their understanding in a real life situation. Describe your performance task scenario below)
By what criteria will performances of understanding be judged?
GRASPS Elements of the Performance Task
G Goal
By the end of this unit, students will be expected to show their understanding of
What should students accomplish by completing
inference testing and the t-test. Students will design and run an experiment or
this task?
observational study in order to answer a question they are wondering about.
R Role
Students will then collect data appropriate for using a t-test, analyze the data using a
What role (perspective) will your students be
t-test, and answer their question by Rejecting or Failing to Reject their Null Hypothesis.
taking?

A Audience

Who is the relevant audience?

S Situation

The context or challenge provided to the student.

P Product, Performance

What product/performance will the student create?

S Standards & Criteria for Success

Create the rubric for the Performance Task

Attach rubric to Unit Plan

Other Evidence
Through what other evidence (work samples, observations,
quizzes, tests, journals or other means) will students demonstrate
achievement of the desired results? Formative and summative
assessments used throughout the unit to arrive at the outcomes.

Student Self-Assessment
How will students reflect upon or self-assess their learning?

Quizzes, Homework, and classwork, will be formative and

summative pieces to show their achievement.

Throughout the unit, students are able to look at their mastery

levels for each learning target in each assignment. This chart is
showing their progress and will help them to readjust if progress is
not being made.

Stage 3 Learning Plan

What teaching and learning experiences will you use to: (1) achieve the desired results identified in Stage 1? AND (2)equip students to
complete the assessment tasks identified in Stage 2?
Where are your students headed? Where have they been? How will you make sure the students know where they are
going?
What experiences do the learners bring to the unit? How have the interests of the learners been ascertained? Have the
learners been part of the pre-planning in any way? What individual needs do you anticipate will need to be addressed?
Learning environment: Where can this learning best occur? How can the physical environment be arranged to enhance
learning?
Students will combine the skills learned in Unit 1 Basic Probability with what they have learned in Unit 2 Descriptive Statistics and
Unit 4 Data Collection in order to be able to fully understand inferential statistics. The biggest obstacle to being able to interpret the
results of the inferential tests they run will be their understanding of probability. We will spend a lot of time discussing what we are
finding the probability of and what that probability tells us. Another potential obstacle of understanding the t-test will be the students
understanding of Standard Deviation. We will spend time drawing the frequency distributions of different samples in order to visually see
the spread of the data and how much the samples overlap.
Students will mostly be working in groups in the classroom. However, data collection will happen outside of class.
How will you engage students at the beginning of the unit? (motivational set)
The opening activity of this unit will be for students to observe a guessing game involving flipping a coin. Students will be asked to
record their thoughts as a student guesses a coin flip correctly many times in a row. This activity shows students a very easy was to
understand what inference tests are all about: When the probability of our original assumption becomes too low, we reject our original
assumption (that the game is fair) and become very suspicious that something is going on.
What events will help students experience and explore the enduring understandings and essential questions in the unit?
How will you equip them with needed skills and knowledge?
#
Lesson Title
Lesson Activities
CCCs
Resources
1
Intro to pCoin flip guessing, discussion of probability and decisions about observations p-value.
value?
Concept of a critical value.
2
Null
Comparing Test scores. Review of mean and standard deviation. When do we determine
Hypothesis
whether the observed difference means there is actual difference in the two groups?
Define Null Hypothesis. State Null Hypothesis for yesterdays and todays activities.
Reject and Fail to Reject similar to Guilty and Not Guilty. (We dont say Innocent, just as
we dont Accept NH.)
3
Null
Students write Null Hypothesis of different situations. Students determine whether to
Hypothesis
Reject or Fail to Reject NH based on probability given.
Day 2
Students receive flow chart.
4

Intro to t-test

T-test
practice with

Given a large set of data, students will make two dot plots in order to draw a frequency
distribution for each. Students will observe the difference in means and observe how
much overlap there is between the groups in order to say whether there seems to be a
real difference between the groups. Students will then use a t-test to determine the
probability of their truly a difference between the groups.
Students will be given another set of data to determine whether to Reject a Null
Hypothesis or not by using the t-test. Students will be shown how to use the graphing

6
7

8
9
10

technology
Quiz
Determining
when to use
a t-test
Intro to
Project
Project Work
Present
Project

calculators to be able to do this.

Quiz on t-test and inference testing
Students will be given sets of data to determine whether they can find the mean and use
the t-test. Students will be asked to Reject or not a Null Hyp by using the t-test if
appropriate. Students will be asked to alter the experimental design so that a t-test can
be used if t-test wasnt appropriate.
Students will be given final unit project. Students will work on experimental design of
project and select samples.
Students will be given time to create Power Point Presentations of their project.
Students will present results to class.

Assess and Reflect (Stage 4)

Considerations
Required Areas of Study:
Is there alignment between outcomes,
performance assessment and learning
experiences?
Adaptive Dimension:
Have I made purposeful adjustments to the
curriculum content (not outcomes), instructional
practices, and/or the learning environment to meet
the learning needs and diversities of all my
students?
Instructional Approaches:
Do I use a variety of teacher directed and student
centered instructional approaches?
Resource Based Learning:
Do the students have access to various resources
on an ongoing basis?
FNM/I Content and Perspectives/Gender
Equity/Multicultural Education:
Have I nurtured and promoted diversity while
honoring each childs identity?

Comments
Yes.
For struggling students:
Flow charts, printed definitions, technology
For students who need a challenge:
Creating own experimental can be as challenging as students or teacher want.
Intro and vocabulary are learned through activity, followed by lecture, notes
and discussion.
Practice is done with groups and individually.
Projects are done in groups.
Yes. Technology such as graphing calculators and Excel. Internet resources also
available. Other resources are notes and worksheets given to all students.
Yes.

From: Wiggins, Grant and J. McTighe. (1998). Understanding by Design, Association for Supervision and Curriculum Development, ISBN # 0-87120313-8 (pbk)