ARBOLES DE DECISION

Prob.

Ao 1 y 2

Prob.

Ao 3, 4 y 5

70% $
Bajar Precio

100%

80%

3,412,500

VAN

DATOS AUXILIARES

VAN ESPERADO

8,849,568

3,185,000

8,934,831
30% $

3,640,000

9,133,779

60% $

3,250,000

8,178,560

40% $

3,640,000

8,665,779

20% $

2,600,000

6,804,928

1
2
3
4
5

2,860,000

Mantener Precio

UNIDADES
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000

14000
14000
15000
15000
15000

PRECIO
950
950
950
950
950

INGRESOS
13,300,000
13,300,000
14,250,000
14,250,000
14,250,000
VAN (25%)

EGRESOS
(8,400,000)
(8,400,000)
(9,000,000)
(9,000,000)
(9,000,000)

IMPUESTOS
(1,715,000)
(1,715,000)
(1,837,500)
(1,837,500)
(1,837,500)

ING NETOS
3,185,000
3,185,000
3,412,500
3,412,500
3,412,500
8,849,568

UNIDADES
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000

14000
14000
16000
16000
16000

PRECIO
950
950
950
950
950

INGRESOS
13300000
13300000
15200000
15200000
15200000
VAN (25%)

EGRESOS
-8400000
-8400000
-9600000
-9600000
-9600000

IMPUESTOS
(1,715,000)
(1,715,000)
(1,960,000)
(1,960,000)
(1,960,000)

ING NETOS
3,185,000
3,185,000
3,640,000
3,640,000
3,640,000
9,133,779

8,059,744

VARIANZA

VAN ESPERADO
20%

2,470,000
Opcin 1
80% $

2,678,000

6,804,928
VAN
8,849,568
9,133,779

Prob.
70%
30%

VAN esperado

Valor
6,194,698
2,740,134

VARIANZA
5,255,833,115,884
11,512,283,506,634

(2,740,134)
(6,194,698)

8,934,831

16,768,116,622,518

2,895,524 <-------DISPERSION

Opcin 2
VAN
8,178,560
8,665,779
6,804,928
6,804,928

Prob.
48%
32%
4%
16%

VAN esperado

Valor
3,925,709
2,773,049
272,197
1,088,788

(4,134,035)
2,773,049
272,197
1,088,788

8,203,317,560,742
2,460,736,852,563
2,963,650,885
189,673,656,669

8,059,744

10,856,691,720,860

18,500,000 <-------DISPERSION

OPCION 2

1
2
3
4
5

UNIDADES
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000

13000
13000
14500
14500
14500

PRECIO
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000

INGRESOS
13,000,000
13,000,000
14,500,000
14,500,000
14,500,000
VAN (25%)

C.V.
(7,800,000)
(7,800,000)
(8,700,000)
(8,700,000)
(8,700,000)

PUBLICIDAD
(800,000)
(800,000)
(800,000)
(800,000)
(800,000)

IMPUESTOS
(1,540,000)
(1,540,000)
(1,750,000)
(1,750,000)
(1,750,000)

ING NETOS
2,860,000
2,860,000
3,250,000
3,250,000
3,250,000
8,178,560

1
2
3
4
5

UNIDADES
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000

13000
13000
16000
16000
16000

PRECIO
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000

INGRESOS
13000000
13000000
16000000
16000000
16000000
VAN (25%)

C.V.
-7800000
-7800000
-9600000
-9600000
-9600000

PUBLICIDAD
-800000
-800000
-800000
-800000
-800000

IMPUESTOS
(1,540,000)
(1,540,000)
(1,960,000)
(1,960,000)
(1,960,000)

ING NETOS
2,860,000
2,860,000
3,640,000
3,640,000
3,640,000
8,665,779

1
2
3
4
5

UNIDADES
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000

11500
11500
12000
12000
12000

PRECIO
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000

INGRESOS
11500000
11500000
12000000
12000000
12000000
VAN (25%)

C.V.
-6900000
-6900000
-7200000
-7200000
-7200000

PUBLICIDAD
-800000
-800000
-800000
-800000
-800000

IMPUESTOS
(1,330,000)
(1,330,000)
(1,400,000)
(1,400,000)
(1,400,000)

ING NETOS
2,470,000
2,470,000
2,600,000
2,600,000
2,600,000
6,804,928

1
2
3
4
5

UNIDADES
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000

11500
11500
12300
12300
12300

PRECIO
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000

INGRESOS
11500000
11500000
12300000
12300000
12300000
VAN (25%)

C.V.
-6900000
-6900000
-7380000
-7380000
-7380000

PUBLICIDAD
-800000
-800000
-800000
-800000
-800000

IMPUESTOS
(1,330,000)
(1,330,000)
(1,442,000)
(1,442,000)
(1,442,000)

ING NETOS
2,470,000
2,470,000
2,678,000
2,678,000
2,678,000
6,902,372

OPCION 1

6,039,308

8,934,831

11,830,355

OPCION 2

(10,440,256)

8,059,744

26,559,744

(26,804)
(25,911)
(25,018)
(24,124)
(23,231)
(22,337)
(21,444)
(20,550)
(19,657)
(18,763)
(17,870)
(16,976)
(16,083)
(15,189)
(14,296)
(13,402)
(12,509)
(11,615)
(10,722)
(9,828)
(8,935)
(8,041)
(7,148)
(6,254)
(5,361)
(4,467)
(3,574)
(2,680)
(1,787)
(893)
0
893
1,787
2,680
3,574
4,467
5,361
6,254
7,148
8,041
8,935
9,828
10,722

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001

8,934,831 2895523.84
8,059,744
18500000

1 0.32407146
0.90205885 2.07054831

11,615
12,509
13,402
14,296
15,189
16,083
16,976
17,870
18,763
19,657
20,550
21,444
22,337
23,231
24,124
25,018
25,911
26,804

0.0001
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

(30,000) (20,000)

0.0002
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001

0.0001
0.0001
0.0000
(20,000) (10,000)
Column B

10,000

-3
-2.9
-2.8
-2.7
-2.6
-2.5
-2.4
-2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2
-1.9
-1.8
-1.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
1.527E-015
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2

10,000
B

20,000

1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3

30,000

0.4
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6

0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2

0.12
0.16
0.12
0.24
0.24
0.12

-3000
-3000
-3000
-3000
-3000
-3000

1500
1500
1500
2500
2500
2500

1000
1500
2000
2000
2500
3000

(809.92)
(396.69)
16.53
925.62
1,338.84
1,752.07

(97.19)
(63.47)
1.98
222.15
321.32
210.25
595.04

236,869.07
157,366.30
40,161.19
26,227.72
132,777.82
160,644.76
754,046.85
868.36