Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates - FM3 Public Opinion Resear & rags TO: Becker Campaign Team FROM: Dave Metz and Emma White Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz. & Associates DATE: November 10, 2014 RE: Recent Survey of Salt Lake City Voters A recent study conducted by Fairbank, Mastin, Maullin, Metz, & Associates finds Ralph Becker is in a strong position should he decide to run for reelection as Mayor of Salt Lake The electorate is happy with the direction of the city, and rewards him with a remarkable job approval rating of 73 percent. In head-to-head match ups he beats potential opponents by more than two-to-one margins. Even in this era of strongly anti-incumbent sentiment, the mood of Salt Lake City reflects contentment and a desire to continue on their current path, Key specific findings of the study are the following: + Voters are happy with the direction of the city overall. Seven in ten say things in Salt Lake City are moving in the right direction (72%) while only two in ten say they are off on the wrong track (21%). Optimism about the city’s direction is shared across the city, including men (7296) and women (73%), voters of all age groups, and Democrats (77%), Republicans (70%) and independents (68%). Salt Lake City voters overwhelmingly approve of Becker's performance as Mayor. Overall, Becker's job approval rating stands at 73 percent — and has never fallen below 70 percent in any of our surveys throughout his time as Mayor. His approval is especially high among Democrats (84%) and independents (75%), but even reaches a majority among Republicans (51%), and men and women approve of his work in office in equal numbers (both 73%). In addition, the electorate rates the mayor positively on all aspects of his performance investigated in the survey, including quality of life, the economy, taxes, and delivery of city services, with approval ratings for many specific areas in the 70s and 80s, as Figure 1 on the next page illustrates. * Methodology: Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) conducted a survey of 400 Salt Lake City voters from Ostober 15-19, 2014. All respondents are considered likely to vote in next yeae's mayoral election, based on their past history of electoral participation. The margin of sampling error for the full study is +/- 4.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level; margins of error for population subgroups will be higher. Due to rounding, some percentages may not sum to 100%,Key Findings Salt Lake City Voter Survey ~ October 2014 Page 2 Figure 1: Approval of Specific Aspeets of Becker’s Job Performance Item Approve | Disapprove ‘Keeping Salt Lake City a great place to live 38% 9% ‘Supporting arts and culture in Salt Lake City 82% 11% Creating a green and sustainable cit 81% 14% Delivering city services 79% 13% Protecting natural areas near the eity 78% 11% ‘Running a transparent and open government 76% 16% ‘Growing the local econom: 75% 17% Expanding trails, bikeways and open space 71% 22% Expanding bus routes, light rail, street car and public aa aaa transportation options within Salt Lake City and the region Protecting rights for the L-G-B-T Community 68% 20% Holding down taxes 64% 26% as we Becker's personal favorability is posi |. Fully 62 percent of voters say that they have a favorable impression of Mayor Becker, while fewer than half as many (26%) view him unfavorably. Dating back to Becker’s election in 2007, at least three in five voters have consistently indicated that they view Becker favorably. In addition, voters perceive that Becker has a wide range of positive personal qualities. As Figure 2 shows, voters are especially likely to believe he loves Salt Lake City (87% “very” or “somewhat” accurate), works fo promote equality (81%) and wants to make Salt Lake City ‘more sustainable (78%). High percentages also say he gets things done (76%), is honest and someone we can trust (75%), and is a strong leader (70%). He is seen as liberal (76%) but also independent (59%). FIGURE 2: Perception of Various Descriptions of Ralph Becker as “Accurate” ‘pti Total Deseription ae Toves Sait Lake City 87% ‘Works to promote equality 81% ‘Wants io make Salt Lake City more sustainable 78% Is liberal 76% Gets things done 76% Ts honest and someone we can tust 75% Is a problem solver Isa strong leader ‘Makes me proud of Salt Lake Cit “Has new ideas to improve Salt Lake City ‘Shares my values ‘Can work across par ies 10 get things doneKey Findings ~Salt Lake City Voter Survey — October 2014 Page 3 Desert on Dispose oa as Gy o% (niga 2 The same dynamics were evident in more indepth conversations in focus groups conducted on behalf of Mayor Becker last fall. Most focus group participants were highly familiar with his commitment to sustainability, to developing transportation altematives and to sound planning for growth and development. Most also credited him Becker with a high degree of integrity and honesty. Several also found his low-key demeanor to be an asset — saying he seemed to them to be positive, collaborative, and uninterested in political gamesmanship. * Should Mayor Becker choose to run for re-election, he is in an extremely strong Position, Two-thirds (66%) say it would be “appropriate” for Mayor Becker to run for a third term, and voters are strongly inclined to vote for Mayor Becker if he is a candidate in next year’s election. More than twice as many say they would vote to re-elect Becker (41%) as say they would vote to replace him (21%). In this era of skepticism about incumbent elected officials, this ratio of positive to negative sentiment is quite striking. ‘Taken together, the survey results show that Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker is held in remarkably high regard by Salt Lake City voters. Voters view Becker favorably, strongly approve of his work as Mayor, are confident that the City is headed in the right direction, and as a result are heavily inclined to support him in next year’s election for Mayor.Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates Public Opinion Research & Sirategy TO: Becker Campaign Team FROM: David Metz Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates RE: Key Findings from October Focus Groups DATE: November 19, 2013 Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) recently completed three focus groups with likely voters in Salt Lake City elections to assess their attitudes toward major issues facing the City, and toward Mayor Ralph Becker. Overall, the sessions revealed an electorate that is highly satisfied with conditions in the City. Participants said they thought their quality of life in Salt Lake City was quite high — with a spectacular natural setting, low crime rates, affordable housing, and a vibrant arts and cultural community. While participants expressed concern about air quality — and while many bemoaned the conservative political culture prevalent in the rest of the state — most said they could think of no place they would rather live. Their general perceptions of City government were that it is well-managed, with good planning and balanced budgets. Their impressions of Mayor Ralph Becker were also generally positive. Most participants were familiar with his commitment to sustainability, to developing transportation alternatives and to sound planning for growth and development. Most also credited him with integrity and honesty. But nearly all said they felt that they knew very little about him, or his administration's priorities — particularly in comparison to some of his more spotlight-seeking predecessors. While some participants argued that their lack of familiarity with Becker could be a sign that he was a workhorse, rather than a show horse, others felt some concern that they did not have a clearer idea of what the Mayor was doing, None of this seemed to add up to any particular vulnerability for Becker. Only a handful said that they would vote against him if he ran for a third term — and just a few thought that the idea of a third term for any mayor was itself troubling. While most said that they would at least 2425 Colorado venue. Sulte 180 1999 Harrison Street, Suite 1290 Santa Montea. CA 90404 Oakland, CA 94612 Phone: (310) 828-1183 Phone: (310) 451-9521 Fas (310) 433-6562 Fax 0) 431-0384Key Findings — Salt Lake City Focus Groups — October 2013 Page 2 consider voting for another candidate, few could name any individual potential candidate that they thought they would prefer to Becker. Moreover, once participants read a brief biography of Becker detailing some of his accomplishments, and read a short summary of his agenda for the balance of his term, they tended to feel much more positively toward him, and questioned why they hadn’t heard some of this information before. Allin all, the sessions suggested that Becker is well-positioned to win re-election to a third term should he choose to run, but that he will need to more aggressively communicate_his accomplishments and priorities in order to firm up voter support. The balance of this memo summarizes the methodology of the focus groups, and presents some of the more detailed findings. METHODOLOGY A total of three groups, with an aggregate of 25 participants, were held in Salt Lake City on the nights of October 9" and 10". Each group consisted of Salt Lake City residents likely to cast ballots in municipal elections, with those who indicated “very favorable” or “very unfavorable” opinions of Mayor Ralph Becker screened out from participation, The sessions were segmented as follows: Swing Voters: Defined as voters who identified as moderate or conservative, but not as “strong Democrats;” Liberal Democrats: Defined as voters who self-identified as liberal and Democratic; and Opinion Leaders: Defined as college-edueated, higher-income voters with a mix of ideological perspectives who read newspapers daily; are members of organizations active on civie affairs; write letters to the editor of local newspapers or to public officials; and contribute money to organizations active in polities Participants in each session included a mix of ages between 25 and 64, with a range of educational attainments, occupational backgrounds and neighborhoods of residence. Each group included a mix of LDS and non-LDS voters. Anyone who had an immediate family member who. worked for an elected official or political campaign, the news media, or an advertising or opinion research firm was excluded from participation All four focus group sessions were moderated by David Metz. It should be noted that focus groups do not measure directly the frequency by which opinions and attitudes may exist within a particular universe of people. Only a random-sample survey can provide that type of statistically- reliable data. However, focus groups dig deeply into mind-sets, customary actions or belief and ‘encourage responses to new ideas or concepts. They can also provide in-depth evaluations of issues. Accordingly, the results of these focus groups may be considered suggestive of the attitudes of Salt Lake City voters, but cannot be considered to represent their views with any kind of statistical precision. Fairhank, Maslin, Mauliin Metz& Associates