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Contact:!Tom!Swiss!
(773)!48569477!
February!1,!2015!
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Emanuel(Holding(Strong(
Aggressive(attacks(from(opponents(not(hurting(Emanuel(
CHICAGO,(IL!6!Ogden!&!Fry,!an!independent!polling!company,!is!conducting!weekly!polls!for!the!Mayor!
of!Chicago.!Respondents!are!selected!by!random!sampling!to!match!Municipal!Election!turnout!ratios!
(see!Methodology).!! !
January!31,!2015!!!n=!884!

Rahm(Emanuel(

369!

41.7%!

Jesus(Chuy(Garcia(

147!

16.6%!

Willie(Wilson(

86!

9.7%!

Robert(Bob(Fioretti(

59!

6.7%!

William(Dock(Walls(

15!

1.7%!

208!

23.5%!

Undecided(

(Margin(of(Error(+/K(3.36%(at(95%(Confidence(Interval((
(

January!24,!2015!!!n=!950!

Rahm(Emanuel(

375!

39.5%!

Jesus(Chuy(Garcia(

171!

18.0%!

Willie(Wilson(

105!

11.1%!

Robert(Bob(Fioretti(

71!

7.5%!

William(Dock(Walls(

17!

1.8%!

211!

22.2%!

Undecided(

(Margin(of(Error(+/K(3.24%(at(95%(Confidence(Interval((
(

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January!17,!2015!!!n=!1,010!

Rahm(Emanuel(

384!

38.0%!

Jesus(Chuy(Garcia(

166!

16.4%!

Willie(Wilson(

107!

10.6%!

Robert(Bob(Fioretti(

68!

6.7%!

William(Dock(Walls(

15!

1.5%!

270!

26.7%!

Undecided(

(Margin(of(Error(+/K(3.15%(at(95%(Confidence(Interval((

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ANALYSIS(
There!is!little!question!Rahm!Emanuel!will!lead!the!February!24,!2015!Municipal!Election.!As!he!inches!
toward!the!50%!mark,!the!only!question!is!whether!he!can!avoid!an!April!7,!2015!run6off!against!Jesus!
Chuy!Garcia.!Emanuel!will!need!to!get!50%!of!the!undecided!voters!to!avoid!a!run6off.!If!Emanuel!is!
forced!into!an!April!7th!run6off,!he!has!a!commanding!106point!lead!over!Garcia.!
Undecided!will!be!removed!as!an!option!after!early!voting!begins!on!February!9,!2015.!This!will!start!
to!reveal!where!the!undecideds!are!breaking.!At!this!point,!Emanuel!needs!a!little!more!than!a!third!of!
the!undecideds!to!prevent!a!runoff.!
January!24,!2015!!!n=!725!

Rahm(Emanuel(

398!

54.9%!

Jesus(Chuy(Garcia(

327!

45.1%!

Margin(of(Error(+/K(3.71%(at(95%(Confidence(Interval((

!
Since!most!activity!in!Municipal!Elections!occurs!in!the!last!2!weeks,!there!is!still!much!room!for!further!
development!in!this!race.!The!final!order!wont!change!but!it!remains!to!be!seen!if!Emanuels!under6
funded!opponents!can!drag!him!under!the!50%!mark!
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METHODOLOGY(
Ogden!&!Fry!strives!to!increase!the!accuracy!of!political!polling!by!measuring!voters!most!likely!to!vote!
based!on!voter!history.!Voting!is!a!socialized!behavior!with!predictable!reliability!and!consistency.!
Ogden!&!Fry!maintains!a!database!with!20!years!of!voting!history.!For!a!Municipal!Election!poll,!60%!of!
the!sampled!population!voted!in!3!of!the!last!3!elections,!30%!voted!in!2!of!the!last!3!elections,!and!10%!
voted!in!1!of!the!last!3!elections.!This!60/30/10!ratio!reflects!Municipal!Election!voting!patterns!
(

CROSSTABS!!January!17th!Poll!
Respondents(by(Gender(((((!
Male(
Female(

468!
542!

46%!
54%!

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Respondents(by(Age(
Age(18(K(30(
96!
9.5%!
Age(31(K(45(
281!
27.8%!
Age(46(K(64(
357!
35.4%!
Age(65(plus(
275!
27.3%!
*Age!could!not!be!determined!for!1!respondent!
(
Respondents(by(Ward(
Ward(1(
Ward(2(
Ward(3(
Ward(4(
Ward(5(
Ward(6(
Ward(7(
Ward(8(
Ward(9(

Ward(26(
10!
! Ward(27(
22!
! Ward(28(
31!
! Ward(29(
20!
! Ward(30(
7!
! Ward(31(
6!
! Ward(32(
22!
! Ward(33(
15!
! Ward(34(
36!
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20!
15!
33!
29!
30!
31!
20!
23!
34!

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Ward(10(
Ward(11(
Ward(12(
Ward(13(
Ward(14(
Ward(15(
Ward(16(
Ward(17(
Ward(18(
Ward(19(
Ward(20(
Ward(21(
Ward(22(
Ward(23(
Ward(24(
Ward(25(

8!
19!
8!
13!
19!
8!
16!
21!
30!
45!
23!
29!
10!
15!
18!
14!

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Ward(35(
Ward(36(
Ward(37(
Ward(38(
Ward(39(
Ward(40(
Ward(41(
Ward(42(
Ward(43(
Ward(44(
Ward(45(
Ward(46(
Ward(47(
Ward(48(
Ward(49(
Ward(50(

15!
11!
16!
17!
19!
16!
22!
21!
14!
18!
17!
17!
30!
34!
24!
19!

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CROSSTABS!!January!24th!Poll!
Respondents(by(Gender(((((!
Male(
Female(

444!
506!

47%!
53%!

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Respondents(by(Age(
Age(18(K(30(
79!
8.3%!
Age(31(K(45(
262!
27.6%!
Age(46(K(64(
353!
37.2%!
Age(65(plus(
255!
26.9%!
*Age!could!not!be!determined!for!1!respondent!
(
Respondents(by(Ward(
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Ward(1(
Ward(2(
Ward(3(
Ward(4(
Ward(5(
Ward(6(
Ward(7(
Ward(8(
Ward(9(
Ward(10(
Ward(11(
Ward(12(
Ward(13(
Ward(14(
Ward(15(
Ward(16(
Ward(17(
Ward(18(
Ward(19(
Ward(20(
Ward(21(
Ward(22(
Ward(23(
Ward(24(
Ward(25(

13!
20!
39!
30!
29!
29!
22!
41!
27!
7!
11!
12!
13!
8!
10!
9!
17!
18!
30!
16!
26!
6!
15!
18!
6!

Ward(26(
Ward(27(
Ward(28(
Ward(29(
Ward(30(
Ward(31(
Ward(32(
Ward(33(
Ward(34(
Ward(35(
Ward(36(
Ward(37(
Ward(38(
Ward(39(
Ward(40(
Ward(41(
Ward(42(
Ward(43(
Ward(44(
Ward(45(
Ward(46(
Ward(47(
Ward(48(
Ward(49(
Ward(50(

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9!
19!
30!
21!
11!
15!
20!
11!
25!
9!
6!
22!
13!
17!
22!
18!
19!
26!
17!
22!
29!
27!
35!
18!
16!

CROSSTABS!!January!31st!Poll!
Respondents(by(Gender(((((!
Male(
Female(

423!
461!

47.9%!
52.1%!

!
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Respondents(by(Age(
Age(18(K(30(
Age(31(K(45(
Age(46(K(64(
Age(65(plus(
(

84!
239!
306!
255!

9.5%!
27.0%!
34.6%!
28.8%!

Respondents(by(Ward(
Ward(1(
Ward(2(
Ward(3(
Ward(4(
Ward(5(
Ward(6(
Ward(7(
Ward(8(
Ward(9(
Ward(10(
Ward(11(
Ward(12(
Ward(13(
Ward(14(
Ward(15(
Ward(16(
Ward(17(
Ward(18(
Ward(19(
Ward(20(
Ward(21(
Ward(22(
Ward(23(
Ward(24(
Ward(25(
!

17!
15!
28!
27!
21!
25!
28!
22!
20!
8!
11!
8!
21!
5!
1!
24!
12!
14!
32!
15!
29!
11!
12!
26!
8!

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Ward(26(
Ward(27(
Ward(28(
Ward(29(
Ward(30(
Ward(31(
Ward(32(
Ward(33(
Ward(34(
Ward(35(
Ward(36(
Ward(37(
Ward(38(
Ward(39(
Ward(40(
Ward(41(
Ward(42(
Ward(43(
Ward(44(
Ward(45(
Ward(46(
Ward(47(
Ward(48(
Ward(49(
Ward(50(

11!
15!
23!
18!
9!
6!
19!
20!
23!
5!
11!
19!
22!
30!
16!
22!
17!
19!
24!
13!
18!
28!
20!
26!
10!

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