Lecture 10 Regression Analysis

11/02/2015
PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING
Chapter
Scatter diagram, linear regression

and correlation
Goodness of fit, Fitting a straight
line, parabola, and other types
PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

BY
Weekly Fuel Consumption y

(MMcf)
13
11
ARSHAD ALI
The Simple Linear Regression

The dependent (or response) variable is the
variable we wish to understand or predict
The independent (or predictor) variable is the

variable we will use to understand or predict
the dependent variable
Regression analysis is a statistical technique

that uses observed data to relate the
dependent variable to one or more
independent variables
9
7
5
20
30
40
50
60
70
CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA
ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)
The objective of regression analysis is to build

a regression model (or predictive equation)
that can be used to describe, predict and
control the dependent variable on the basis of
the independent variable
Objective of Regression Analysis
Scatter Plot and Linear Regression Model
Regression
One of the main purposes of curve fitting is to estimate one of the variables
(the dependent variable) from the other (the independent variable). The
process of estimation is often referred to as regression. If y is to be
estimated from x by means of some equation, we call the equation a
regression equation of y on x and the corresponding curve a regression
curve of y on x.
11/02/2015
Generally, more than one curve of a given type will appear to fit a set of data. To
avoid individual judgment in constructing lines, parabolas, or other approximating
curves, it is necessary to agree on a definition of a best fitting line, best-fitting
parabola, etc.
To motivate a possible definition, consider following figure in which the data points
are (x1, y1), . . . , (xn, yn).
For a given value of x, say, x1, there will be a difference between the value y1and the
corresponding value as determined from the curve C. We denote this difference by d1,
which is sometimes referred to as a deviation, error, or residual and may be positive,
negative, or zero. Similarly, corresponding to the values x2, . . . , xn, we obtain the
deviations d2, . . . , dn
The Method of Least Squares
10
y na b x
xy a x b x
11

Comparison of Correlation Coefficient
12
11/02/2015
13
14
The value of r is such that -1 < r < +1. The + and

signs are used for positive linear correlations and
negative linear correlations, respectively
Negative correlation: If x and y have a strong negative linear correlation, r is

close
to -1. An r value of exactly -1 indicates a perfect negative
fit. Negative values
indicate a relationship between x and y such
that as values for x increase, values for y decrease.
If x and y have a strong positive linear correlation, r is

close
to +1. An r value of exactly +1 indicates a
perfect positive fit. Positive values
indicate a
relationship between x and y variables

such that as values for x increases,
values for y also increase.
17
16
positive correlation: If x and y have a strong positive linear correlation, r is

close to +1. An r value of exactly +1 indicates a perfect positive fit. Positive
values
indicate a relationship between x and y variables such that as
values for x increases, values for y also increase.

15
Positive Correlation
18
11/02/2015
19
20
Regression ( A dictionary Meaning)
the act of going back to a previous place or

state; return or reversion.
2.retrogradation; retrogression.
3.Biology. reversion to an earlier or less advanced
state or form or to a common or general type.
4.Psychoanalysis. the reversion to a chronologically
earlier or less adapted pattern of behavior and
feeling.
5.a subsidence of a disease or its manifestations:
One of the main purposes of curve fitting is to estimate one of

the variables (the dependent variable) from the other (the
independent variable).
22
Example Problem
Average Hourly
Week Temperature x
(deg F)
Weekly Fuel
Consumption y
(MMcf)
28
12.4
28
11.7
32.5
12.4
39
10.8
45.9
9.4
57.8
9.5
58.1
Weekly Fuel Consumption y (MMcf)

13
12
11
FUELCON
The process of estimation is often referred to as regression. If

y is to be estimated from x by means of some equation, we
call the equation a regression equation of y on x and the
corresponding curve a regression curve of y on x.
21
Regression
10
9
8
7
6
5
20
30
40
50
60
70
TEMP
Least Square Model for Straight Line

y a bx
xy ax bx 2
y a bx
y a bx
xy ax bx
xy ax bx
y na b x
xy a x b x
7.5
23
Example Problme
62.5
24
y na b x
xy a x b x
11/02/2015
y na b x
y
x2
12.4
28.0
784.00
347.20
11.7
28.0
784.00
327.60
12.4
32.5
1056.25
403.00
10.8
39.0
1521.00
421.20
9.4
45.9
2106.81
431.46
9.5
57.8
3340.84
549.10
8.0
58.1
3375.61
464.80
7.5
62.5
3906.25
468.75
81.7
351.8
16874.8
3413.1
xy
81.7 8 a 351.8 b
xy a x b x
3413.1 351.8 a 16874.8 b
25
Example Problem
a 15.84
b 0.1289
y x x xy
2
26
Example Problem
Least Square Model for
2nd
degree polynomial
xy ax bx 2 cx 3
xy ax bx 2 cx 3
y a bx cx 2
xy ax bx
y a bx cx
2
y a bx cx
y na b x c x
xy ax bx
cx 3
xy ax bx cx
2
xy a x b x
c x3
cx 3
xy ax bx cx
2
y a x 2 b x 3 c x 4
y 15.84 0.1289 x
x2
x3
x4
xy
x2y
28.0
12.4
784.00
21952.00
614656.00
347.20
9721.6
28.0
11.7
784.00
21952.00
614656.00
327.60
9172.8
32.5
12.4
1056.25
34328.13
1115664.06
403.00
13097.5
39.0
10.8
1521.00
59319.00
2313441.00
421.20
16426.8
45.9
9.4
2106.81
96702.58
4438648.38
431.46
19804.01
57.8
9.5
3340.84
193100.55
11161211.91
549.10
31737.98
58.1
8.0
3375.61
196122.94
11394742.87
464.80
27004.88
62.5
7.5
3906.25
244140.63
15258789.06
468.75
29296.88
351.8
81.7
16874.8
867617.8
46911809.3
3413.1
156262.4
x y
xy x
27
28
x2
x3
x4
xy
x2y
81.7
351.8
16874.8
867617.8
46911809.3
3413.1
156262.4
y na b x c x
xy a x b x
x
c x3
y a x 2 b x 3 c x 4
a 15.63
b 0.118
c 1.145
81.7 8a b 351.8 c 16874.8

3413.1 a 351.8 b 16874.8 c 867617.8
156262.4 a 16874.8 b 867617.8 c 46911809.3
351.8
16874.8 a
81.7 8
34131.1 351.8
16874.8
867617.8 b

156262.4 16874.8 867617.8 46911809.3 c
29
81.7 8a b 351.8 c 16874.8

3413.1 a 351.8 b 16874.8 c 867617.8
156262.4 a 16874.8 b 867617.8 c 46911809.3
y a bx cx 2
y 15.63 0.118 x 1.145 x 2
30
a 15.63
b 0.118
c 1.145
11/02/2015
35

33


31
32
34
36
11/02/2015
12x16y=5
38
39
37
40
16x+106y=47
PROBLEM
41
42
Problem Extension of Steel Wires
Ten steel wires of diameter 0.5 mm and length 2.5 m were extended in a laboratory
by applying vertical forces of varying magnitudes. Results are as follows:
F kg
15
19
25
35
42
48
53
56
62
65
mm
1.7
2.1
2.5
3.4
3.9
4.9
5.4
5.7
6.6
7.2
(a)
Estimate the parameters of a simple linear regression model with force as the
explanatory variable.
(b)
Find 95% condence limits for the two parameters.
(c)
Make Microsoft Excel calcs of the same and compare with the manual Clacs
11/02/2015
USING MICROSOFT
EXCEL
Step 2
Go to insert
44
Step 1
Enter Data in Microsoft Excel
45
43
46
Select Data
Select Scatter Chart
47
48
7.2
5.7
6.6
5
5.4
3.4
4.9
3.9
2.1
3
2
2.5
Step 3
1.7
0
Left Click on scatter data, right click & select
Add Data Labels
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
11/02/2015
Step 4
Right Click on data points and
Select Add Trend line
7.2
5.7
6.6
5
5.4
3.4
4.9
3.9
2.1
50
Step 5
Select Linear Model
51
49
52
2
2.5
1.7
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Step 6
70
Right Click on Regression Line

Select Format Trend line
Step 7
Check Display Eq
Check R squared
53
54
7.2
y = 0.1062x - 0.1212
R = 0.9833
6
mm
5.7
6.6
5.4
3.4
4.9
3.9
2.1
3
2
2.5
1.7
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Force (kg)
11/02/2015
Linear Regression
Equation
55
y a bx
y a bx
y
na b x i
x y
a xi b xi2
15
yi
xi yi
xi2
1.7
25.5
225
19
2.1
39.9
361
25
2.5
62.5
625
35
3.4
119
1225
42
3.9
163.8
1764
48
4.9
235.2
2304
53
5.4
286.2
2809
56
5.7
319.2
3136
62
6.6
409.2
3844
Regression Equations
y
x y
i
2128.5 420a 20518b
7.2
468
4225
43.4
2128.5
20518
x y
a xi b xi2
43.4 10a 420b
65
na b x i
Substituting Values
420
58
10a 420b 43.4

420a 20518b 2128.5
Arrange equation variables for elimination
217
10a 420b
5
4257
420a 20518b
2
i
Multiply10a 420b
217
by 42
5
9114
420a 17640b
5
therefore the set of equations become
9114
420a 17640b
5
4257
420a 20518b
2
59
57
xi
56
Step 1: Make Equations needed to find a and b
60
Subtructing as follows
4257
2
9114
420a 17640b
5
-
420a 20518b
2878b
3057
10
3057
0.10622
28780
10
11/02/2015
420a 17640
Substitute the value of b as follows
3057 9114
28780
5
420a
9114
3057
17640
5
28780
420a
9114 2696274
5
1439
420a
y= a + bx
y 0.1212 0.10622 x
1.7
19
2.1
Y 0.1212 0.10622 19 1.90
25
2.5
Y 0.1212 0.10622 25 2.53
35
3.4
Y 0.1212 0.10622 35 3.60
42
3.9
Y 0.1212 0.10622 42 3.60
48
4.9
Y 0.1212 0.10622 35 3.60
53
5.4
Y 0.1212 0.10622 35 3.60
56
5.7
Y 0.1212 0.10622 35 3.60
62
6.6
Y 0.1212 0.10622 35 3.60
65
7.2
Y 0.1212 0.10622 35 3.60
Y 0.1212 0.10622 15 1.47
63
Y 0.1212 0.10622 x
15
Evaluating the values of all determiniants
50 2100
50 41036 2100 840 287800
840 41036
217 2100
217 41036 2100 4257 34888
4257 41036
64
50a 2100b
217
840a 41036b 4257
Writing the matrix Form

50 2100 a 217
840 41036 b 4257
Find coefficient matrix (D), A matrix (Da) and B matrix (Db)
217 2100
Da
4257 41036
65
Alternate Method for solving
50 2100
D
840 41036
det ( Dy )
Hence the Regression Equation is as follows
366324 1
4361
0.1212
7195 420 35975
Finding Y at given value of x by using Regression Equation
det ( Dx )
62
366324
7195
det ( D)
61
9114
420a 17640 b
5
50 217
Db
840 4257
66
Using Cramer Rule
det ( Dx ) 34888
4361
0.1212
det ( D) 287800
35975
det ( Dy )
det ( D)
30570
3057
0.10622
287800 28780
50 217
50 4257 217 840 30570
840 4257
11
11/02/2015
Correlation
67
Defined as
covariance x, y
Var x Var y
XY
X2
X2Y
X3
X4
15
1.7
25.5
225
382.5
3375
50625
19
2.1
39.9
361
758.1
6859
130321
25
2.5
62.5
625
1562.5
15625
390625
35
3.4
119
1225
4165
42875
1500625
42
3.9
163.8
1764
6879.6
74088
3111696
48
4.9
235.2
2304
11289.6
110592
5308416
53
5.4
286.2
2809
15168.6
148877
7890481
56
5.7
319.2
3136
17875.2
175616
9834496
62
6.6
409.2
3844
25370.4
238328
14776336
65
7.2
468
4225
30420
274625
17850625
420
43.4
2128.5
20518
113871.5
1090860
60844246
xy
xy2
x2 y2
x 2 x 2 y 2 y 2
i i i i
n
n n
n
n XY X Y
n X 2 X 2 n Y 2 Y 2

69
Table for Calculations
x y x
i
Simplifies to
68
Coefficient of Correlation
70
Coefficient of Correlation
n XY X Y
n X 2 X 2 n Y 2 Y 2

Substituting
X 420 , Y 43.4 , X Y 2128.5, X

r
20518 , Y 2 221.38
10 2128.5 420 43.4

10 20518 4202 10 221.38 43.4 2
0.9916 or 99.16%
PROBLEM
71
72
Problem
Consider the lab-measured water content in randomly selected field soil specimens
from a particular site, and the corresponding water content. estimated by a fast,
inexpensive method which measures the gas pressure created when the soil is
mixed with a chemical which reacts with water. If it is sufficiently accurate, the
second method will provide an inexpensive way to obtain more frequent watercontent samples during the quality control of soil compaction on a highway project.
The purpose is to predict true water content given an observed value of the fast
test. Find the estimated regression line using the following data
n 67, x 13.8 , y 13.8 , xi yi 2128.5 , x i2 13260
12
11/02/2015
na b x i
x y
a xi b xi2
x 13.8
x
x
Substituting Values
We get
13.8
13.8
67
n 67, x 13.8 , y 13.8
x y
13145 , x i 13260
13.8 67
73
74
67 a 924.6 b 924.6
924.6 a 13260 b 13145
STEP 1: Get rid of the fractions.by multiplying first equation by 5 and second
equation by 10. After multiplying we have the following system:
924.6
335 x 4623 y
4623
9246 x 132600 y 131455
Similarly
924.6 67 a b 924.6
924.6
13145 a 924.6 b 13260

STEP 2: Find coefficient matrix (D), X matrix (Dx) and Y matrix (Dy). In this
example we have.
4623
335
D
9246 132600
4623
4623
Dx
131455 132600
75
4623
335
Dy
9246 131455
STEP 4: Solve for the a and b using Cramer Rule.
det ( Dx ) 5293335
3.1569
det ( D ) 1676742
det ( D y )
det ( D )
1293167
0.771
1676742
y a bx
The estimated regression model
76
STEP 3: Find determinants for D, Dx and Dy.
det ( D )
335
4623
335 132600 4623 9246 1676742
9246 132600
det ( Dx )
4623
4623
4623 132600 4623 131455 5293335
131455 132600
det ( D y )
335
4623
335 131455 4623 9246 1293167
9246 131455
77
78
PROBLEM
y 3.1569 0.771x
13
11/02/2015
health effects research has prompted the Environmental Protection Agency

to reduce allowable arsenic levels in drinking water so that many water
systems are no longer compliant with standards. This has spurred interest
in the development of methods to remove arsenic. The accompanying data
on and arsenic removed (%) by a particular process was read from a
scatter plot in the article Optimizing Arsenic Removal During Iron
Removal: Theoretical and Practical Considerations
80
Scatter Diagram
80
70
Arsenic remove d %
Arsenic is found in many ground-waters and some surface waters. Recent
79
Problem: Ground water Analyis
60
50
40
30
20
10
(J. of Water Supply Res. and Tech., 2005: 545560).
6.5
7.5
X 7.01 7.11 7.12 7.24 7.94 7.94 8.04 8.05 8.07 8.9 8.94 8.95 8.97 8.98 9.85 9.86 9.86 9.87
Y
60 67 66 52 50 45 52 48 40 23 20 40 31 26
22 13
X 152.7
Y 671
X Y 5380.84
, X 2 1312.6764
9.5
10
10.5
Step 1: Find XY and X2 as it was done in the table below.

X
7.01
7.11
7.12
7.24
7.94
7.94
8.04
8.05
8.07
8.9
8.94
8.95
8.97
8.98
9.85
9.86
9.86
9.87
Y
60
67
66
52
50
45
52
48
40
23
20
40
31
26
9
22
13
7
XY
420.6
476.37
469.92
376.48
397
357.3
418.08
386.4
322.8
204.7
178.8
358
278.07
233.48
88.65
216.92
128.18
69.09
83
Step 2: Find the sum of every column:
81
8.5
x p-H
82
XX
49.1401
50.5521
50.6944
52.4176
63.0436
63.0436
64.6416
64.8025
65.1249
79.21
79.9236
80.1025
80.4609
80.6404
97.0225
97.2196
97.2196
97.4169
YY
3600
4489
4356
2704
2500
2025
2704
2304
1600
529
400
1600
961
676
81
484
169
49
84
y
x y
i
na b x i
a xi b x
n 18
2
i
X 152.7
Y 671
Substituting the values of
671 18 a 152.7 b
5380.84 152.7 a 1312.6764 b
X Y 5380.84
, X 2 1312.6764
31231
31231
14
11/02/2015
18 a 152.7 b 671
152.7 a 1312.6764 b 5380.84
18a
1527
b 671
10
85
Re organizing Equations
86
STEP 1: Get rid of the fractions.by multiplying first equation by 10 and second
equation by 2500.
180 x 1527 y 6710

381750 x 3281691y 13452100
1527
3281691
134521
a
b
10
2500
25
STEP 2: Find coefficient matrix (D), X matrix (Dx) and Y matrix (Dy). In this
example we have.
1527
180
D
381750 3281691
1527
6710
Dx
13452100 3281691
87
6710
180
Dy
381750 13452100
STEP 4: Solve for the x and y.
det ( Dx ) 1478789910
a
190.27
det ( D)
7772130
det ( Dy )
det ( D)
140164500
18.03
7772130
88
STEP 3: Find determinants for D, Dx and Dy.
det ( D)
180
1527
180 3281691 1527 381750 7772130
381750 3281691
det ( Dx )
6710
1527
6710 3281691 1527 13452100 1478789910
13452100 3281691
det ( Dy )
180
6710
180 13452100 6710 381750 140164500
381750 13452100
89
Another Direct Method to find a and b
90
Y X X XY
n X X
2
6711312.6764 152.7 5380.84

18 1312.6764 152.7 2
190.268
n XY X Y
n X 2 X
18 5380.84 152.7 671

18 1312.6764 152.7
18.034
15
11/02/2015
y
y
91
a b x
190.268 18.034 x
Step 4: Substitute a and b in regression equation formula
92
Correlation Coefficient
n XY X Y
n X 2 X 2 n Y 2 Y 2

18 5380.84 152.7 671
18 1312.6764 152.7 2 18 31231 6712
0.9505
PROBLEM
95
94
Japans high population density has resulted in a multitude of resource-usage

problems. One especially serious difficulty concerns waste removal. The article
Innovative Sludge Handling Through Pelletization Thickening (Water Research,
1999: 32453252) reported the development of a new compression machine for
processing sewage sludge. An important part of the investigation involved
relating the moisture content of compressed pellets (y, in %) to the machines
filtration rate (x, in kg-DS/m/hr). The following data was read from a graph in the
article:
x 125.3 98.2 201.4 147.3 145.9 124.7 112.2 120.2 161.2 178.9 159.5 145.8 75.1 151.4 144.2 125 198.8 132.5 159.6 110.7
y
77.9 76.8 81.5 79.8 78.2 78.3 77.5 77 80.1 80.2 79.9 79 76.7 78.2 79.5 78.1 81.5 77
Scatter Plot
93
Step 1: Find XY , X2 and Y2 as it was done in the table below.
96
XY
XX
YY
125.3
77.9
9760.87
15700.09
6068.41
98.2
76.8
7541.76
9643.24
5898.24
201.4
81.5
16414.1
40561.96
6642.25
147.3
79.8
11754.54
21697.29
6368.04
145.9
78.2
11409.38
21286.81
6115.24
124.7
78.3
9764.01
15550.09
6130.89
112.2
77.5
8695.5
12588.84
6006.25
120.2
77
9255.4
14448.04
5929
161.2
80.1
12912.12
25985.44
6416.01
178.9
80.2
14347.78
32005.21
6432.04
159.5
79.9
12744.05
25440.25
6384.01
145.8
79
11518.2
21257.64
6241
75.1
76.7
5760.17
5640.01
5882.89
151.4
78.2
11839.48
22921.96
6115.24
144.2
79.5
11463.9
20793.64
6320.25
125
78.1
9762.5
15625
6099.61
198.8
81.5
16202.2
39521.44
6642.25
132.5
77
10202.5
17556.25
5929
159.6
79
12608.4
25472.16
6241
110.7
78.6
8701.02
12254.49
6177.96
79 78.6
16
11/02/2015
X 2817.9
Y 1574.8
X Y 222657.88
X
97
Step 2: Find the sum of every column to get:
y
x y
i
na b x i
a xi b x
n 20
X 2817.9
2
i
Y 1574.8
Substituting the values of
X Y 222657.88
1574.8 20 a 2817.9 b
415949.85
98
Substituting the values in following equations
X
Y
222657.88 2817.9 a 415949.85 b
28179
7874
20 x
y
10
5
20 a 2817.9 b 1574.8
2817.9 a 415949.85 b 222657.88
28179
8318997
5566447
x
y
10
20
25
STEP 1: Get rid of the fractions.by multiplying first equation by 10 and

second equation by 100.
99
STEP 2: Multiply each equation by a number that will create opposite coefficients
for x. In this case we will multiply first equation by -28179 and the second equation
by 20.
5635800a 794056041b 443762892

5635800a 831899700b 445315760
STEP 3: add the two equations together to eliminate a from the system
37843659b 1552868
281790a 41594985b 22265788
STEP 5: substitute the value for b into the original equation to solve for a.
28179 1552868 7874
10 37843659
5
1533899096
21024255
a 72.96
1552868
0.041
37843659
101
124039.58
100
200a 28179b 15748
Solving for a
415949.85
124039.58
20a
102
The estimated Regression Equation is
y a bx
y 72.96 0.041x
17
11/02/2015
PROBLEM
Values of modulus of elasticity (MOE, the ratio of stress, i.e., force per unit area, to
strain, i.e., deformation per unit length, in GPa) and flexural strength (a measure of
the ability to resist failure in bending, in MPa) were determined for a sample of
concrete beams of a certain type, resulting in the following data (read from a graph
in the article Effects of Aggregates and Microfillers on the Flexural Properties of
Concrete, Magazine of Concrete Research, 1997: 8198):
MOE
29.8 33.2 33.7 35.3 35.5 36.1 36.2 36.3 37.5 37.7 38.7 38.8 39.6 41 42.8 42.8 43.5 45.6 46 46.9 48 49.3 51.7 62.6 69.8 79.5
Strength 5.9
7.2
7.3
6.3
8.1
6.8
7.6
6.8
6.5
6.3
7.9
8.2
8.7
7.8
9.7 7.4 7.7 9.7 7.8
80
7.7 11.6 11.3 11.8 10.7
104
Problem Statement
The article Promising Quantitative Nondestructive Evaluation Techniques for

Composite Materials (Materials Evaluation, 1985: 561565) reports on a study to
investigate how the propagation of an ultrasonic stress wave through a substance
depends on the properties of the substance. The accompanying data on fracture
strength (x, as a percentage of ultimate tensile strength) and attenuation ( y, in
neper/cm, the decrease in amplitude of the stress wave) in fiberglass-reinforced
polyester composites was read from a graph that appeared in the article. The simple
linear regression model is suggested by the substantial linear pattern in the scatter
plot
12
30
36
40
45
57
62
67
71
78
93
94
100
105
3.3
3.2
3.4
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.1
105
Problem Statement
103
Use the accompanying Minitab output to obtain the equation of the least squares
line for predicting strength from modulus of elasticity, and then predict strength for a
106
Problem Statement
No-fines concrete, made from a uniformly graded coarse aggregate and a
cement-water paste, is beneficial in areas prone to excessive rainfall because of
its excellent drainage properties. The article Pavement Thickness Design for NoFines Concrete Parking Lots, J. of Trans. Engr., 1995: 476484) employed a
least squares analysis in studying how y = porosity (%) is related to x = unit
weight (pcf) in concrete specimens. Consider the following representative data:
x
99
101.1
102.7
103
105.4
107
108.7
110.8
112.1
112.4
113.6
113.8
115.1
115.4
120
28.8
27.9
27
25.2
22.8
21.5
20.9
19.6
17.1
18.9
16
16.7
13
13.6
10.8
Obtain the equation of the estimated regression line. Then create a scatter plot of
the data and graph the estimated line. Does it appear that the model relationship
will explain a great deal of the observed variation in y? What happens if the
estimated line is used to predict porosity when unit weight is 135? Why is this not
a good idea?
beam whose modulus of elasticity is 40. Would you feel comfortable using the least
squares line to predict strength when modulus of elasticity is 100? Explain.
For the past decade, rubber powder has been used in asphalt cement to improve
performance. The article Experimental Study of Recycled Rubber-Filled HighStrength Concrete (Magazine of Concrete Res., 2009: 549556) includes a
regression of y = axial Strength Mpa, x = cube strength in Mpa based on the
following sample data: Obtain the Regression line and Coefficient of Correlation
from the given data
x
112.3
97
92.7
86
102
99.2
95.8
103.5
89
86.7
75
71
57.7
48.7
74.3
73.3
68
59.3
57.8
48.5
107
Problem Statement
108
Problem Statement
Wrinkle recovery angle and tensile strength are the two most important
characteristics for evaluating the performance of cross-linked cotton fabric. An
increase in the degree of crosslinking, as determined by ester carboxyl band
absorbance, improves the wrinkle resistance of the fabric (at the expense of
reducing mechanical strength). The accompanying data on x = absorbance
and y= wrinkle resistance angle was read from a graph in the paper Predicting the
Performance of Durable Press Finished Cotton Fabric with Infrared Spectroscopy
(Textile Res. J., 1999: 145151).
x
y
0.115 0.126 0.183 0.246 0.282 0.344 0.355 0.452 0.491 0.554 0.651
334
342
355
363
365
372
381
392
400
412
420
a. Does the simple linear regression model appear to be appropriate? Explain.

b. What wrinkle resistance angle would you predict for a fabric specimen having an
absorbance of .300?
c. What would be the estimate of expected wrinkle resistance angle when
absorbance is .300?
18
11/02/2015
Calcium phosphate cement is gaining increasing attention for use in bone repair
applications. The article Short-Fibre Reinforcement of Calcium Phosphate Bone
Cement (J. of Engr. in Med., 2007: 203211) reported on a study in which
polypropylene fibers were used in an attempt to improve fracture behavior. The
following data x = fiber weight %age on and y = compressive strength (MPa) was
provided by the articles authors.
x
1.25
1.25
1.25
9.94
11.67
11
13.44
9.2
9.92
9.79
10.99 11.32 12.29
1.25
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
8.69
9.91
10.45
2.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
10
10
10
10
10.25
7.89
7.61
8.07
9.04
6.63
6.43
7.03
7.63
7.35
6.94
7.02
7.67
a. Fit the simple linear regression model to this data. Then determine the
proportion of observed variation in strength that can be attributed to the model
relationship between strength and fiber weight.
b. The average strength values for the six different levels of fiber weight are 11.05,
10.51, 10.32, 8.15, 6.93, and 7.24, respectively. The cited paper included a
figure in which the average strength was regressed against fiber weight.
c. Obtain the equation of this regression line and calculate the corresponding
coefficient of determination. Explain the difference between the r2 value for this
regression and the r2 value obtained in (a).
Variations in clay brick masonry weight have implications not only for structural and
acoustical design but also for design of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning
systems. The article Clay Brick Masonry Weight Variation (J. of Architectural Engr.,
1996: 135137) gave a scatter plot of y = mortar dry density (lb/ft3 ) versus x = mortar
air content (%) or a sample of mortar specimens, from which the following
representative data was read:
x
5.7
6.8
9.6
10
10.7
12.6
14.4
15
119
121.3
118.2
124
112.3
114.1
112.2
115.1
15
16.2
17.8
19
19.7
20.6
25
111
107.2
108.9
108
111
106.2
105
Corrosion of steel reinforcing bars is the most important durability problem for
reinforced concrete structures. Carbonation of concrete results from a chemical
reaction that lowers the pH value by enough to initiate corrosion of the rebar.
Representative data on x = carbonation depth (mm) and y = strength (MPa) for a
sample of core specimens taken from a particular building follows (read from a plot in
the article The Carbonation of Concrete Structures in the Tropical Environment of
Singapore, Magazine of Concrete Res., 1996: 293300).
x
y
x
y
8
22.8
38
19.5
15
27.2
40
12.4
16.5
23.7
45
13.2
20
17.1
50
11.4
20
21.5
50
10.3
27.5
18.6
55
14.1
30
16.1
55
9.7
30
23.4
59
12
35
13.4
65
6.8
The accompanying data was read from a graph that appeared in the article
Reactions on Painted Steel Under the Influence of Sodium Chloride, and
Combinations Thereof (Ind. Engr. Chem. Prod. Res. Dev., 1985: 375378). The
independent variable is SO2 deposition rate (mg/m2 /d), and the dependent
variable is steel weight loss (g/m2 ).
14
18
40
43
45
112
280
350
470
500
560
1200
a) Construct a scatter plot. Does the simple linear regression model appear to be
reasonable in this situation?
b) Calculate the equation of the estimated regression line.
c) What percentage of observed variation in steel weight loss can be attributed to the
model relationship in combination with variation in deposition rate?
d) Because the largest x value in the sample greatly exceeds the others, this observation
may have been very influential in determining the equation of the estimated line. Delete
this observation and recalculate the equation.
e) Does the new equation appear to differ substantially from the original one (you might
consider predicted values)?
112
Problem Statement
During oil drilling operations, components of the drilling assembly may suffer from sulfide
stress cracking. The article Composition Optimization of High-Strength Steels for
Sulfide Cracking Resistance Improvement (Corrosion Science, 2009: 28782884) reported
on a study in which the composition of a standard grade of steel was analyzed. The
following data on y = threshold stress (% SMYS) and x = yield strength (MPa) was read
from a graph in the article (which also included the equation of the least squares line).
635
644
711
708
836
820
810
870
856
923
878
937
948
100
93
88
84
77
75
74
63
57
55
47
43
38
113
Problem Statement
110
Problem Statement
111
Problem Statement
109
Problem Statement
114
Problem Statement
The catch basin in a storm-sewer system is the interface between surface runoff and
the sewer. The catch-basin insert is a device for retrofitting catch basins to improve
pollutant removal properties. The article An Evaluation of the Urban Storm water
Pollutant Removal Efficiency of Catch Basin Inserts (Water Envir. Res., 2005: 500
510) reported on tests of various inserts under controlled conditions for which inflow
is close to what can be expected in the field. Consider the following data, read from a
graph in the article, for one particular type of insert on x = amount filtered (1000s of
liters) and y = % total suspended solids removed.
23
45
68
91
114
136
159
182
205
228
53.3
26.9
54.8
33.8
29.9
8.2
17.2
12.2
3.2
11.1
19
11/02/2015
115
Thanks
Note:
If you feel any difficulty in understanding the lectures or if you could not get
the soft copy of the lecture you can email me. I will try my best to answer.
Your suggestions are always welcome to improve the lecture presentations
Personal:
Official:
arshadalibuitems@gmail.com
arshad.ali@buitems.com.pk
20

Lecture 10 Regression Analysis

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Lecture 10 Regression Analysis

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

11/02/2015

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

Scatter diagram, linear regression

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Weekly Fuel Consumption y

The Simple Linear Regression

The independent (or predictor) variable is the

Regression analysis is a statistical technique

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

The objective of regression analysis is to build

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

Objective of Regression Analysis

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

Scatter Plot and Linear Regression Model

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

The Method of Least Squares

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

Comparison of Correlation Coefficient

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

The value of r is such that -1 < r < +1. The + and

Negative correlation: If x and y have a strong negative linear correlation, r is

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

If x and y have a strong positive linear correlation, r is

to +1. An r value of exactly +1 indicates a

perfect positive fit. Positive values

relationship between x and y variables

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

positive correlation: If x and y have a strong positive linear correlation, r is

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

ARSHAD ALI (arshadalibuitems@gmail..com)

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHODS IN ENGINEERING

CIVIL ENGINEERING BUITEMS, QUETTA