Modeling at Different Scales

for the Lake Superior Ecosystem

Past, Present and Future
Jim Kitchell
Hasler Professor of Zoology
Center for Limnology
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Thanks to: Conference Organizing Committee
Harry Gorfine
Linas Lozys
Gitana iaulien
Wisconsin Sea Grant Program

Gitchee gummee

What next?

Invaders from Europe:

Three messages:
-Lake Superior is warming.
-Food web interactions are changing.
-Adaptive Management of sea
lamprey can help.

Cast: The See Lamprey

Magnificent
creature!

loved by some

Direct relation to Man

Lampreys are a delicacy in Europe:
King Henry I (1068-1135) of England died of a surfeit of it!
(Scott and Crossman, Freshwater Fishes of Canada)
The Portuguese, French and Finnish are no less keenin the UK, the
people of Gloucester still present British monarchs with lamprey pie
on special occasions.
(Burton, A.. 2010. Lets pray for the lamprey. Frontiers 8: 392.)
From the River Usk in Wales:
and it was these that formed our favourite fishing stations, where we
sometimes found shoals of small lampreysthen fried for our dinner
to our great enjoyment. (Alfred Russell Wallace, My Life)

(WIDNR)

(WIDNR)

Lamprey grow rapidly!

Sea lamprey populations exploded in each of the Great Lakes

Victim

Lamprey-marked Trout

Unmarked trout

Other Victims

How many fish does a sea lamprey kill? F=0.5, M=0.45

The solution? Wage war! GLFC Treaty has two main goals:
1. Control sea lamprey 2. Restore native fish communities.

Heinrich et al. 2003

Heinrich et al. 2003

Sea lamprey spawning streams: Lake Superior = 74

All Great Lakes = 628, Now ~ 400+

Adults in L. Superior (Heinrich et al. 2003)

Heinrich et al. 2003

How?
--TFM
--Barrier dams
--Sterile males
--Pheromones

Declare victory! Mission accomplished!?

Results? Lamprey size increases. Causes? Increase of host populations.

Lake trout recovery (Catch Per Unit Effort)

Bronte et al. 2003

Other anadromous invaders from the Atlantic

Rainbow smelt (introduced as lake trout prey)

Another anadromous invader from the Atlantic

Lampreys and fisheries removed the predators. Alewife invaded and flourished

Alewife basking on a Chicago beach in 1967

Alewife are a menace! Stock predators to reduce and control them! L. Superior is
too cold for alewife. Smelt increased. Lake trout and salmon prey on them.

Start with the native lake trout. Add Pacific salmon (e.g., chinook and coho)

Conclusion: Stocked salmon and trout cause decline of alewife.

Result? Recreational fishery ~ 7.5 Billion (US $) per year.

Bigger lampreys!
Does stocking salmon and trout create another problem?

Lean lake trout

Siscowet lake trout

Lean lake trout

Siscowet lake trout

Oops! We forgot about

habitat partitioning based on
preferred temperatures

100 years of Average Annual Water Temperature

Since 1980, L. Superior average ice cover has decreased by 50%

Lake Superior surface water temperatures have increased

approximately 2.5 C over the interval of 1979-2006significantly in
excess of regional atmospheric warming. (Austin and Colman 2008)

Lake Superior mean annual surface temperature

from Austin & Colman 2008

Add climate change: Lampreys get larger, kill more hosts,

and produce more eggs! Lamprey control costs more!

Thermal Habitats
Walleye:

Chinook and coho salmon

Are rising temperatures changing

habitats and trophic interactions?

(Tpref = +/- 2.0)

Tpref = 16-20

Lake trout are demersal. What temperature will sea lamprey experience?

Lake trout thermoregulate!

(100C = 500F)

Bioenergetics models of sea lamprey seasonal feeding and growth

25

20

4.5

15

10

1.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D
Months

0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00

Specific Growth Rate

(g-g-1-day-1)

7.5

Temperature (C)

Daily Blood Consumption

(g / lamprey)

mean daily temperature is the dominant factor affecting

host mortality. (Swink 2003)

Hydrodynamic Model
1979-2009

MIT general circulation models

Provide above-lake atmospheric winds, radiation, moisture, and

temperature
Model determines flux of heat and momentum between lake and
atmosphere
Wind field, bathymetry, temperature gradients, Earths rotation
drive circulation (Bennington et al. 2010)

Trends

Cline, Bennington, Kitchell. 2013. PLOS One

Cline et al., 2013. PLOS One

Darwins mantra: Eat, grow and reproduce.

Lake Superior is a buffet for lampreys!

That raises the scale to the fish community level.

Warming = Longer growth season

More hosts = More food
Increased growth = Higher fecundity
More larvae = More TFM
More TFM = More money
Current problem grows at
5-10% per year!

Cline et al. 2014. Ecosphere.

Adaptive management: Focus lamprey control on the

rivers and regions where lampreys are largest due to
climate change effects!

Now for some more good news!

Good news: Invasive mussels cant succeed!

Good news: More walleye!

What next?
Climate change?
More exotics?
The Big Chill?

Thank you
for your
time!
Questions?

So, keep thinking about lampreys, food webs and

and adaptive management!

Prognostic
Hydrodynamic Model
of Lake Superior

Atmospheric conditions prescribed

Calculates momentum and heat
transfer between atmosphere and lake
Wind- and Buoyancy-induced mixing of
the water column calculated
Heat and momentum transfer between
lake grid cells
Temperature and velocity in all model
grid cells calculated
Conservation of mass and energy
Primitive equations solved at each time
step and grid cell

Inter-annual Variability

Cline et al., in review PLOS One

250

Cum. New Models

Cum. Applications
Total Publications

200

150

100

50

0
74

1978

1983

1988
Year

1993

1998

2003

Inter-annual Variability

Cline et al., in review PLOS One

Add hosts: Lampreys get larger and produce more eggs!

Lamprey control costs more!

Add climate change: Lampreys get larger and produce more eggs!
Lamprey control costs more!

Leans
Fats = Siscowets

120

Wounds per 100 Fish

100

Do siscowet subsidize
lamprey growth?

80

60

40

20

0
Lake Trout

Small Siscowet

Large Siscowet

Whitefish

Lamprey data are lake-wide means. Are there regional effects?

Bad

Rock

Test: Long-term data from individual rivers.

Tahquamenon

Warming = Longer growth season

More hosts = More food
Increased growth = Higher fecundity
More larvae = More TFM
More TFM = More money
Current problem grows at
5-10% per year!

Cline et al. 2014. Ecosphere.

Why are lampreys

bigger?
1. More hosts +
Bigger lampreys

2. Climate changes
More hosts

Longer growing seasons

Big Chill?

Lampreys and fisheries removed the predators. Alewife invaded and flourished

Darwins mantra: Eat, grow and reproduce.

Bottom trawls for fish stock assessment produced bycatch of lamprey kills.

Darwins mantra: Eat, grow and reproduce.

Gitchee gummee

Gitchee gummee

What next?

Missions accomplished!

Good news: Invasive mussels cant succeed!

Good news: More walleye!

Carcass trawls revealed that lamprey-caused mortality = 45% of total. F = 50%.

Eureka! Then zebra mussels increased

Lake Superior mean annual surface temperature

from Austin & Colman 2008

Add climate change: Lampreys get larger, kill more hosts,

and produce more eggs! Lamprey control costs more!

Warming = Longer growth season

More hosts = More food
Increased growth = Higher fecundity
More larvae = More TFM treatment
More treatment = More money
Current problem grows at
~ 5-10% per year!

Cline et al. 2014. Ecosphere

Adaptive management: Focus lamprey control on the

rivers and regions where lampreys are largest due to
climate change effects!

What next?
Climate change?
More exotics?
The Big Chill?

Lesson: One exotic can facilitate other exotics = Invasional meltdown

Carcass trawls revealed that lamprey-caused mortality = 45% of total. F = 50%.

Eureka! Then zebra mussels increased

Salmon

Siscowet

Are siscowets invading the habitat of leans?

Will lake trout continue to increase?

Leans

Prognostic
Hydrodynamic Model
of Lake Superior

Atmospheric conditions prescribed

Calculates momentum and heat
transfer between atmosphere and lake
Wind- and Buoyancy-induced mixing of
the water column calculated
Heat and momentum transfer between
lake grid cells
Temperature and velocity in all model
grid cells calculated
Conservation of mass and energy
Primitive equations solved at each time
step and grid cell

Figure 1.The energy budget of a yellow perch as a function

of temperature. Note the rapid decline in growth as
temperature increases beyond 25C. The vertical line at 23C
indicates the optimal temperature and maximum metabolic
scope for this species. From Kitchell et al. 1977.
From: Ficke, A. D., C. A. Myrick, and L. J. Hansen. In
Preparation. Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on
Freshwater Fisheries.

J-hook

Circlehook

Tunahook

Three morphotypes of native lake trout in the Great Lakes:

Leans occupy nearshore habitats.
Humpers occur in deeper water on ridges, rises and reefs
Fats or Siscowets typically occupy deeper water.
Siscowets differ from others in that they can be up to 70% fat.
-the name translates from Algonquin languages as cooks itself.
-this fish is of little value to recreational or commercial fisheries.
So, why would a fish devote so much of its mass to fat?
Whats the adaptive advantage?
Hint: The worlds most abundant fishes are members of the family Myctophidae.
The myctophids occur in the epipelagic and mesopelagic habitats of the oceans.
They exhibit regular diel vertical migration between those habitats.

70000
70,000

60000
60,000

50000
50,000

Changes in Median Spatial Extent of Habitat

Walleye
Chinook Salmon
Lean Lake Trout

Walleye > 71 days

Chinook > 156 days
Lean Lake Trout > 190 days

km2

40000
40,000

30000
30,000

20000
20,000

10000
10,000

00

Bennington et al., in prep

1980
1980

1985
1985

1990
1990

1995
1995

2000
2000

2005
2005