Running head: NUCLEAR, WEATHER OR TERROR DISASTERS

Nuclear, Weather or Terror Disasters in my Community? What happens next?

Ronda A. Mott
Ferris State University - Nursing 319

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Abstract
Disasters of all types on a scale seemingly never before appreciated are being
experienced world-wide and with consistently increasing frequency. Though media reports at
times make these seem catastrophic, yet far removed, the fact is that each event occurred in
someones backyard, some populations local community; where how they live, work and play is
vehemently disrupted. As evidence grows that no community is immune and that the attributes
of certain communities actually increase their risk for disaster, a return to the local civil defense
and disaster preparedness strategies of an era gone by may deserve real reconsideration. Short of
this and a complete shift in the public psyche to better appreciate the risks, a personal recognition
of the disaster risk in ones individual locus of existence and community and a strategic game
plan to insure personal survival is not only wise but could make the difference between life,
death, despair and peace of mind in critical 72 hours of a regional mass disaster in a community.

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Nuclear, Weather or Terror Disasters in my Community? What happens next?

Having lived in West Michigan my entire life and in particular Grandville, Michigan for
eighteen years, after a survey of the areas major industries, transportation networks, population
distribution, natural environment, weather patterns and history, I conclude that Grandville,
Michigan and the surrounding communities are at risk for disasters in the categories of nuclear or
industrial accidents, winter weather related catastrophes and exploitation as a terror strike soft
target. Researchers have rated the risk level of a terror attack for 132 cities based on factors
including critical industries, ports, railroads, population, natural environment and other factors
(University of Arizona, 2008). According to the text, it has been observed that despite their
differences, many disasters share similarities because certain challenges and similar response
tasks occur repeatedly and predictably (Veenema, 2013). For these reasons, it is plausible that
Grandville, Michigan and the surrounding communities are at risk for nuclear or industrial
accidents and weather related catastrophes because of the same unique characteristics that put it
at risk as a soft terror target (French, 2014).
Today, with the news headlines roaring about the growing prospects for disasters of all
types most notably nuclear, weather- related and terror-motivated events, what is emerging in the
public is either trepidation or irrational denial. People no longer consider effective planning for
surviving a nuclear attack, crippling weather catastrophe or a terror strike. In fact, the biggest
surprise for most Americans, if any of these or other such events are unleashed, will be that they
are still alive after the event. With any of these events, most people in regular communities like
West Michigan, will likely survive the initial impact of such events because they will be removed
or nowhere close to an industrial disaster site, direct weather front or a ground zero.
Unfortunately, most people will not be prepared to survive the subsequent radioactive fallout,

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temperature and environmental extremes and infrastructure collapse classically experienced in

such events that will claim far more lives than these initial events themselves. The good news,
according to The National Planning Scenario No. 1 conducted by the Department of Homeland
Security in 2004 cited that well over ninety percent of potential casualties could be avoided if the
public were trained through a national civil defense and disaster survival education program. So,
as ominous as a true disaster in any of the aforementioned categories sounds, including a nuclear
incident, most residents if trained and prepared, would witness, survive and live to tell about
their first major regional disaster within the US cities at high risk for terrorist attacks identified
(Howe, 2004). Devoid of meaningful civil defense and disaster preparedness training, millions
of families in ordinary communities just like West Michigan, are at risk and will unnecessarily
succumb. Unable to expect much from government and other organized response efforts in the
opening hours and days a regional disaster, the public will likely have to respond in the
immediate aftermath to save themselves.
The following treatise is an identification and analysis of the major disaster event risks
for the community of Grandville, Michigan; a summary of the philosophy, strategy and action
steps of my personal household disaster response plan; and a listing of the components of a
disaster supply kit for my family of three, designed to enable survival for the first 3 or more days
in the event of a disaster.
Regarding the regional nuclear or industrial accident threat to my community, a brief look
at any places of interest map demonstrates a West Michigan concentration of nuclear power
plants within 100 miles and several within 60 miles of my residence, places of work and
recreation and the locations of my nuclear and extended family and friends. In that nuclear
plants are often positioned to benefit from the availability of natural water sources for cooling

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the reactors, West Michigans great lakes geography is a natural strategic location that supports
plant operations. The Fukushima reactor malfunction of 2011 in Japan has made it abundantly
clear that despite industry, regulatory agency and government oversight, stringent energy and
environmental risk policy and safety procedures once thought immutable, reactors can both fail
and be breached (ns.iaea.org, 2014). Considering that the Palisades Nuclear Plant in Covert, MI
is 59.3 miles away, the Entergy Nuclear Plant in Paw Paw, MI is 60.9 miles south and the Cook
Nuclear Facility in Bridgman, MI is 91.6 miles southwest, the potential for experiencing the
immediate effects of a nuclear blast wave are lower but Grandville, Michigan would almost
certainly experience the effects of wind propagated radioactive fallout and penetrating radiation
energy, known to travel over hundreds of miles, through homes, businesses and virtually any
edifice in my community for several days (Connor, 2011). The threat to life in my community
for at least the first few days would be enormous.
The winter weather related disaster risk to the West Michigan community and Grandville
has long been appreciated for decades. The northern areas of the state generally experience
colder weather compared to the south but Michigan weather is unpredictable and switches
rapidly, especially during the winter (InWriteWork.com, 2007). The National Weather Service in
Grand Rapids, Michigan has authenticated records since the late 1800s. The intensity and
duration of winter weather in this community is legendary. This season through January 14,
2014, Grand Rapids has experienced 53.9 inches of snow. Normal or average amounts by this
time of the winter are 39.8 inches. During a normal or average winter Grand Rapids generally
records about 75 inches. At this point this year in the winter season, my community is on track
to easily surpass that with most all of February and March 2014 still left (Craig, 2014). The
devastation that severe winter can cause has been experienced many times over in West

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Michigan throughout the years. Despite that the community is typically well prepared and
resourced to combat formidable winter weather challenges, infrastructure is commonly
incapacitated, services are typically sidelined and citizens are routinely housebound, sometimes
for days at a time. Recently the winter weather plight of 2014 in Pennsylvania cities of similar
population and composition as Grandville, Michigan in which hundreds of thousands of
Pennsylvanians are without power following the latest round of dangerous winter weather is a
stark reminder of the brutal force with which these weather patterns paralyze regions
(Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency, 2014). As is typical of winter weather
infrastructure failure, vulnerable populations are often out of power for days, simply because of
the staggering quantity of power outages and the magnitude of debris that must be cleared before
power crews can access the problem areas and repair damage. For Grandville, Michigan and the
surrounding areas whose winter weather extremes are more frequent and dwarf most
Pennsylvania communities the potential for a truly disabling winter disaster is only a matter of
time.
Lastly, a case for the risk of a terror attack on the West Michigan community can be
plausibly made given the communitys regional attributes, as well as the existence of higher risk
factors native to the community (University Of Arizona, 2008). Many factors help define what
law enforcement institutions consider potential soft terror targets. A soft target is a tactical term
referring to an unarmed or undefended position or target. A soft target can be a structure,
automobile, school, mall or an assembly of people (French, 2014). Given these definitions,
Grandville, Michigan and the immediate surrounding community is replete with dense
population and spectator rich platforms with low situational awareness. For example, unlike
most communities its size Grandville and its adjacent communities enjoy status as major

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locations and venues for mass public gatherings such as the Van Andel Arena, DeVos Place for
Performing Arts, Fifth Third Baseball Complex, Meijer Gardens and the popular trade show
destination at the DeltaPlex. The community is also a choice destination for regional and nationwide convention traffic as well as regularly publicized recurring events such as Art Prize,
summer festivals and local community fairs and the River Bank Run attracting thousands. The
community boasts a renowned host of closely approximated, easily accessible educational
institutions and colleges serving tens of thousands of on campus and commuting students. These
include Grand Valley State University, Grand Rapids Community College, Cornerstone
University, Davenport Colleges, University of Phoenix, Calvin Christian College, Western
Michigan University annex and the recently acquired main campus for Michigan State
Universitys College of Human Medicine and more. Further, three of the largest suppliers of
regional health care services Spectrum Health, Mercy Health Partners and St. Marys Hospital
and Metro Health are all concentrated within a fifteen mile radius and share vitally important
infrastructure and collaborative relationships. The area is host to a robust, mass transit sector
including national bus service and passenger train operations, international airport and a shared
municipal public transit line. Other soft target potential of the community is reinforced by the
presence of abutting ports of call in Holland and Grand Haven, Michigan and the thriving
nuclear power sector as previously mentioned native to the community. Finally, though no proof
of it is available other that my anecdotal experience in living in this community all my life and in
particular Grandville for many years, I believe the community may also be at risk in this regard
because of its own perception as a safe-haven, given its family-oriented, conservative values,
suburban and rural flavor.

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Regardless of the type of disaster and in particular, the three most likely to assault my
community, a personal disaster response philosophy and strategy is most likely to succeed if it is
simple, proven and is able to flexibly respond to the core upheaval common to most every
disaster of mass proportion. Much like a publically funded, state and municipal all-hazards
approach to disaster preparedness incorporates planning for components consistent across all the
major disaster types to maximize resources and efforts (Veenema, 2013). I believe a personal
plan should likewise be structured in a similar way for peak effectiveness, of course, with smaller
economies of scale.
The major components of my personal response strategy include those immediate actions
taken to prepare for the first three days or more of self-sufficiency. These overarching,
benchmark decisions and actions include: 1) whether to evacuate myself and family or prepare to
stay in our home or immediate local area 2) delegating and prioritizing responsibilities among
adults for assuring food, supplies, water and shelter 3) gathering and storing food and water 4)
constructing or maintaining a shelter and maximizing livability 5) maintaining communications
news and access to vital information, between essential persons, institutions and authoritative
resources 6) personal protection and playing the waiting game until getting the formal all-clear
(Connor, 2011).
If immediate evacuation cannot be accomplished safely, sheltering in place becomes
essential. Sheltering at home or a familiar building is best. Priorities include maximizing
location, protective shielding and reinforcement against weather and toxic environments and
livability. Plans to secure the lowest level of an edifice for safe occupancy increases the
likelihood of avoiding indoor temperature extremes, toxic inhalation and exposure, weather
extremes and assures safe ventilation and protection of supplies and defense against rogue

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elements and community threats. Since most disaster threats will likely require the need to
shelter full-time for only days to a week, secure escape and re-entrance portals will make egress
and returning from chores and surveillance safer and predictable. Other logistics to providing
and maintaining livability such as personal hygiene, sanitation, avoiding contamination, waste
removal and insulation deserve set-up and ongoing attention for both persons and pets.
The personal decision to evacuate or stay put in response to a disaster may hinge on
factors such as the nature of the disaster, prior resources in place and preparations made and
certainty of the information about the disaster that is available (i.e. weather forecasts, ground
zero and effect radius etc.) Evacuation would likely require very high levels of confidence in the
ability to arrive at a desired evacuation checkpoint, the ability to leave immediately to avoid
situation deterioration, a low risk of getting trapped between departure and arrival locations,
possession of portable supplies on hand, adequate transportation means and fuel and adequate
personal protection given the possibility of limited situational law enforcement (Connor, 2011).
Unless all of these variables are within my control relatively quickly, evacuation may be far too
dangerous and mandate the staying put option.
Delegating food and supply gathering and other key life strategies to responsible adults or
older children, some with special skills and knowledge is a priority. These tasks can begin long
before a disaster, anticipating the real possibility of being cut off from stores, utilities and city
support services. Advance acquisition of additional training in first aid, personal security,
communications equipment and the like, may come in handy, if forging out to stores or the
community for supplies becomes necessary after a disaster. In this case, use of credit cards may
be best to conserve cash and advance planning on which establishments to patronize might allow
for avoiding panicked hordes of people overrunning stores and businesses. Advance study in

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organizing and protecting tools, powers sources, fuels, generators and other traditional energy
sources (electric and natural gas diversion or shutoff) begins pre-disaster and throughout the
period of likely confinement.
Maintaining communications internally and with the outside world is a key to survival
planning and adjustments to new or changing conditions, personal health or unforeseen risks.
Listening for guidance from authoritative outside resources can prove live saving if conditions
rapidly change or deteriorate. Typical applications for communications, such as cell phones, TV,
internet and computer are fine if the communications infrastructure has been preserved post
disaster. Anticipating the need for less commonly used radio, short wave communications or
even hand held walkie-talkies for personal and group communication and sustaining these
outreach tools during a disaster, deserves consideration.
Lastly, developing a community phone tree for contacting and monitoring family,
friends, the infirmed and ones strategic inner circle, with scheduled check- in time, can be
delegated to adults and older children to assure escape readiness, rendezvous locations and other
needs. The disaster supply list to follow would serve as the personal index for priority supply
stocking and monitoring. Then immediately post disaster, collecting and storage of water in all
forms takes priority. Any available container from bathtubs, to swimming pools, washing
machines and hot water heaters, to lined garbage cans can be useful for storage and immediate
filling with no maximum being considered. Products and know-how for water source
purification, filtering and monitoring for home or shelter use is easily learned and assigned.
Finally, preserving security and protecting the persons and resources in your immediate
sphere of post disaster influence is a serious consideration. Though long term confinement is
less likely for most disasters, the widely disseminated lessons of the Katrina Hurricane and

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winter 2013 U.S. east coast noreaster storm are stark reminders of the ominous threats and
societal transformations that occur during mass panic, when thousands are faced with the
prospect of an immediate life threat or wanton conditions. Consideration in acquiring and
becoming proficient with a number of personal protection strategies, maintaining arms and
adequate ammunition to deter threats or defend territory is prudent, considering the range of
local threats and the lack of law enforcement likely to be available, who are themselves likely
locked in the same self-survival mode for their families that other citizens are facing.
Lastly, passing the time during disaster confinement, especially for children, could prove
challenging, without some advance planning. Though most time early on will likely be
consumed by securing and maintaining the basics of survival as time wears on, the ability to
provide temporary social and psychological diversions and cognitive stimulation may prove
useful in combating cognitive and emotional fatigue, desperation and the risks of cabin fever.
On its face, this priority falls far lower on the emergency preparedness scale but its long term
benefit for those confined, infirmed and in doubt could be psychologically substantial in
preserving a sense of normalcy and relationship connectedness.
Some items you may not think of that could save your life and be included in your basic
emergency kit are indicated below.

Aluminum foil, plastic wrap, resealing plastic bags

Baby Formula and Bottle (if applicable)

Battery operated alarm clock

Blankets, sleeping bags, pillows

Can Opener

Candles, tin cans

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Candy (to revive blood sugar levels)

Canned foods (Choose foods your family will eat, meats, fruits, vegetables, salsa, and

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cheese. Avoid foods that will make you thirsty. Choose salt-free crackers, dry packaged
foods, dehydrated foods, whole grain cereals and canned foods with high liquid volume.)

Cell phone charges and adapters

Clean old towels, rags and coffee filters to strain unclean water if necessary

Coffee, tea, powdered coffee cream, Kool aid packets

Compass

Entertainment items books, magazines, cards, puzzles, small games, toys

Facial Mask N95

Fill up your vehicles gas tank and spare gas cans, if safe to do so.

Flashlight and extra Batteries

Garbage bags, plastic bags

Glasses, contacts and cleaners

Good Pocket Knife or all-purpose knife

Hand and baby wipes, hand sanitizers, soap

Household documents, personal identification, money and contact numbers

Household liquid bleach

Jump kit with hydrated packaged foods and seeds

Needle and thread

Paper, pencils and pens

Personal clothes, undergarments, socks, shoes, boots and coats

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Personal hygiene supplies including tooth brushes, toothpaste, washcloth and towels.
Toilet paper. Hair supplies.

Pet food, supplies and prepare for additional water requirements

Prescription Medicines (a 2 week supply of anything you or a family member normally

consumes.)

Rain Ponchos

Simple seasonings (salt, pepper, Mrs. Dash, sugar, flour, packaged spices, dry mixes)

Small Camp Stove and Fuel

Small fire extinguisher

Small first aid kit with aspirins, Motrin, Tylenol, child products, vitamins, syrup of
ipecac, laxatives

Small frying pan and pot for cooking or boiling water

Small tool box with wretches, hammer, nails, screwdrivers and pliers

Tarp and Duct Tape (think make-your-own shelter)

Utensils plastic cups, plates, bowls, silverware

Water - melted ice cubes, liquids from canned goods such as fruit or vegetables, water
drained from pipes, water drained from the water heater and filling the washing machine.

Water one gallon per person per day

Waterproof Matches

Whistle

Work gloves for the family

Disasters they have happened and will continue to happen. Though the full explanation

behind the surge in world-wide disasters themselves may be unclear, the carnage in terms of loss

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of life, infrastructure collapse and enduring community fracture and displacement are all too
common and have been so consistently experienced at the hands of such events, as to now be
expected. The flip side in so frequently revisiting mass tragedies and disasters is the dichotomy
that now exists in the public mindset. The psychological pendulum demonstrates complacency
and nihilism versus abject fear and panic. Thus, though states, regions and municipalities have
made plans for mass tragedy, evidence exists that the most effective plans are personal,
deliberate and well-conceived and initiated by individuals who have prepared to respond to a
mass disaster in their community.

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References
Connor, S. (2011). Surviving radioactive fallout and radiation contamination from Japan, Iran
and North Korea. When an ill wind blows from a far! Retrieved February 7, 2014, from
http://www.ki4u.com/illwind.htm
Craig, K. (2014). West Michigan snow totals continue to mount. Retrieved February 7, 2014,
from http://www.fox17online.com/2014/01/15/west-michigan-snow-totals-continue-tomount/#ixzz2shTKSwzI
French, G. (2014). Terrorist attacks: Don't be a soft target. Retrieved February 7, 2014, from
http://www.policeone.com/international/articles/6261724-terroristHowe, D. (2004). The Homeland Security Council planning scenarios - executive summaries.
Retrieved February 7, 2014, from http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/.../2004/hscplanning-scenarios
InWriteWork.com (2007). Historical weather patterns of Michigan. Retrieved February 7, 2014,
from http://www.writeworks.com/essay/historical-weather-patterns-michigan
Mueller, E. (2012). How to create an emergency kit for your family. Retrieved February 7, 2014,
from http://www.5minutesformom.com/63060/how-to-create-a-family-emergency-kit
Ns.iaea.org (2014). Long term structure of the IAEA safety standards and current status.
Retrieved February 7, 2014, from http://wwwns.iaea.org/committees/files/css/205/status.pdf
Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (2014). Pennsylvania state provides power
outage safety tips in wake of latest winter storm. Retrieved February 7, 2014, from
http://www.news.yahoo.com/pennsylvania-state-provides-power-outage-tips-wake222600571.html

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Surviormall.com (2014). Emergency supplies and survival kits for disaster preparedness.
Retrieved February 7, 2014, from http://www.surviormall.com
University Of Arizona (2008). US cities at high risk for terrorist attacks identified. Retrieved
February 7, 2014, from http://www.sciencedaily.com/release/2008/03/080304092842.htm
Veenema, T. (2013). Disaster nursing and emergency preparedness (3rd ed.). New York, NY:
Springer Publishing Company, LLC.