EruptionForecastingCaseStudies

Mt.PinatubointhePhilippinesisoneoferuptionforecasting'sgreatsuccessstories.Whenit
awokeinthespringof1991,volcanologistsrushedin,installedmonitoringequipment,and
correctlyidentifiedthenatureoftheunrest.Theyrapidlycompletedahazardassessment,
basedinpartonlookingatevidencefrompasteruptionsthere.Andtheyprovidedgood
advicetopublicofficialsandthePhilippineandU.S.militaries.Justdaysbeforethemountain
explodedonJune15,theFilipinogovernmentsuccessfullyevacuatedmorethan60,000
peoplefromtownsandvillages(andtheU.S.ClarkAirBase)thatwerelaterpartlyorwholly
destroyed.
TungurahuavolcanoinEcuador,ontheotherhand,mightfallinthe"spectacularfailure"
categoryoferuptionforecasting.WhenTungurahuawokeupin1999,volcanologistsfromthe
USGS'sVolcanoDisasterAssistanceProgram(VDAP)quicklyhelpedtheirEcuadoran
colleaguessetupmonitoringequipmenttoevaluatethehazardsandtrackthevolcano's
restlessness.Whenamagmaticeruptionbeganthere,theteamsmelledtrouble:Three
welldocumentederuptionswithinthepast300yearsthathadbegunjustthatwayhad
resultedinexplosiveeruptionsthatdevastatedthevolcano'sflanksandkilledlargenumbers
ofpeople.Basedonthe1999team'surgentrecommendation,theEcuadoranauthorities
evacuatedmorethan15,000peoplelivingbeneaththevolcano.
Fiveyearslater,Tungurahua,whilegurglingonadailybasis,hasyettoproduceanymajor
explosiveeruptions."Itwasaneconomicandpoliticaldisaster,andaworseoneisinthe
making,becausethose15,000peoplereturnedtotheirvillagesandhavecategorically
refusedtoleaveagain,"saysMiller,whodirectsVDAPandledthe1999team.Millerfearsthe
mountaincouldstillproducedamagingeruptions.
WhythedisparityinresultsbetweenPinatuboandTungurahua?Thereasonisthatwhena
volcanoshowssignsofdisquiet,evenonethatisthoroughlyknownandinstrumented,
volcanologistscanstillneverbecertainwhenitwillerupt,inwhatway,andtowhat
degreeorevenifitwilleruptatall.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/forecastingvolcaniceruptions.html

Groupsof45.

Groupsaregivendatafrom5/7and5/14andsevenminutestoreviewitandmakea
decision.Ateammembercomestotheteacherwith1,2,or3writtenastheir
recommendation.A2or3mustalsospecifywhichcity/mountainlocation.Whentime
runsout,theteamdefaultsto1.

Smallearthquakeisreportedon5/15nearMt.Kuna.Teamshavesevenminutesto
provideanotherrecommendation.

Datafor5/21isprovided.(Iftherewasamountainclosure,thecampersforthat
locationcanbeignoredforthatteam.)Sevenminutes,andanotherrecommendationis
broughtforward.Anyrecommendationbeforethistimeisawastenothinghappens
beforetheweekisout.

Slightlylargerearthquakeon5/27isreportednearMt.Sherwood.Sevenminutesto
makeanotherrecommendation.IfawarningisissuedtoLockwood,therewillbeno
casualtiesandonly$5,000,000indamage.

Datafor5/28isreported.Sevenminutestomakeanotherrecommendation.Ifa
warningisissuedtoLockwood/Mt.Carolon5/28/2020,therewillbeonlytwo
casualties,campersthatcouldnotbelocatedintime.$7,000,000indamage.

5/29At9:23inthemorning,steamisspottederuptingfromthecrateronMt.Carol.
Sevenminutestomakeanotherrecommendation(butcutshorttotwominutes?)A
warninggivenatthistimetoLockwoodallowssomepreparation.At9:47,thecrater
explodeswithvolcanicashandapyroclasticflowclaims10campersandanother3
citizensofLockwoodasashanddebriscoverthecity.$13,000,000indamage.

IfLockwoodisgivennowarningwhatsoever,7citizenswilldieinadditiontothe10
campers.$16,000,000indamage.