Year

Quarter

Period

1989

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

1990

1991

1992

1993

Year

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Total
Mean
Median
Adj. Mean

Share
Index

Seaosnal Effect
MA(4)

1037
1090
1183
1131
1149
1120
1082
1019
1099
1207
1239
1204
1207
1265
1148
1277
1384
1404
1472
1570
Periods
3

1124.25
1142
1133.125
1106.5
1086.25
1090.875
1121.375
1164.125
1200.75
1221.5
1217.375
1215.125
1246.375
1285.875
1343.75
1420.875

Ratio to Moving
Average

Adjusted Seasonal
Index

Deseasonalized
Share

Trend Projection

Detrend data

Cyclical MA (3)

1.0522570603
0.9903677758
1.0140099283
1.0122006326
0.9960874568
0.9341125243
0.9800468175
1.0368302373
1.0318550906
0.9856733524
0.9914775644
1.04104516
0.9210711062
0.993098085
1.0299534884
0.9881235154

1.0039842832
1.0196639743
1.0004296143
0.9759221282
1.0039842832
1.0196639743
1.0004296143
0.9759221282
1.0039842832
1.0196639743
1.0004296143
0.9759221282
1.0039842832
1.0196639743
1.0004296143
0.9759221282
1.0039842832
1.0196639743
1.0004296143
0.9759221282

1032.8846948271
1068.9796123985
1182.4919845026
1158.903940554
1144.4402259945
1098.4010696205
1081.5353569161
1044.1406856097
1094.6386495805
1183.7232955643
1238.4679364317
1233.7049906517
1202.2100546348
1240.6047795267
1147.5070145469
1308.5060407493
1378.5076351405
1376.9241979886
1471.3678792796
1608.7349130591

1013.585
1034.77
1055.955
1077.14
1013.585
1034.77
1055.955
1077.14
1013.585
1034.77
1055.955
1077.14
1013.585
1034.77
1055.955
1077.14
1013.585
1034.77
1055.955
1077.14

1.0190410225
1.0330601123
1.1198317963
1.075908369
1.1291013837
1.0614929594
1.0242248551
0.9693639505
1.0799672939
1.1439482161
1.1728415855
1.1453524989
1.1860969279
1.1989183872
1.0867006781
1.2147966288
1.3600316058
1.3306572456
1.3934001726
1.4935244379

1.0573109771
0.6840337116
1.0573109771
1.0762667592
1.1082805163
1.0888342374
1.0716063994
1.0183605883
1.0245186998
1.0644264868
1.1322523652
1.1540474335
1.1680970041
1.1767892713
1.1572386644
1.1668052314
1.2205096376
1.3018284934

1.052257 0.9903677758
1.0140099 1.012201 0.996087 0.9341125243
0.9800468 1.03683 1.031855 0.9856733524
0.9914776 1.041045 0.921071 0.993098085
1.0299535 0.988124
4.015488 4.0782 4.00127 3.903251738
1.003872 1.01955 1.00032 0.975812934 3.9995524489
1.002744 1.02452 1.01397 0.988020564 4.0292510192
1.003984 1.01966 1.00043 0.975922128

1600

Time Series Plot of Share Index

1500
1400

f(x) = 21.1846164281x + 992.3952753834

1300
1200
1100
1000
1

Deseasonalized Share

10

11

12

13

14

15

Linear (Deseasonalized Share)

16

17

1000
1

Deseasonalized Share

Adj. Median 0.995464 1.01708 1.00661 0.980847864

10

11

12

13

14

15

Linear (Deseasonalized Share)

16

17

Cyclical Index %

Irregular

105.73109771
68.403371161
105.73109771
107.62667592
110.82805163
108.88342374
107.16063994
101.83605883
102.45186998
106.44264868
113.22523652
115.40474335
116.80970041
117.67892713
115.72386644
116.68052314
122.05096376
130.18284934

0.9770636404
1.6371003027
1.0175893302
1.0490906404
0.9577836511
0.9406618749
0.9045895499
1.0604959641
1.1165713386
1.1018530636
1.0115699769
1.027771384
1.0263859791
0.9234454329
1.0497373327
1.165602938
1.0902472251
1.0703408166

dex

14

15

zed Share)

16

17

18

19

20

14

15

zed Share)

16

17

18

19

20

Share Index

Simple
Exponential
Smoothing

1037
1090
1183
1131
1149
1120
1082
1019
1099
1207
1239
1204
1207
1265
1148
1277
1384
1404
1472
1570

1037
1052.9
1091.93
1103.651
1117.2557
1118.07899
1107.255293
1080.7787051
1086.24509357
1122.471565499
1157.4300958493
1171.4010670945
1182.0807469662
1206.9565228763
1189.2695660134
1215.5886962094
1266.1120873466
1307.4784611426
1356.8349227998
1420.7844459599

Alpha

Simple Exponential Smoothing Graph

0.3
1600
1500
1400
1300
Share

1200
1100
1000
900
800
1

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Index

Share Index

Simple Exponential Smoothing