Assessment Task 2: Gaining insights from research for classroom planning 1

Heidi Gabrys S00135390

Gaining insights from research for classroom planning

Heidi Gabrys
Introduction
Probability is a concept assumed to be challenging for children, in fact Piaget &
Inhelder declared that probability is beyond the capabilities of younger children (in
Threlfall, 2004, p.297). As challenging as probability may appear, this does not deem
the concepts to be unimportant. In fact children walk into the classroom armed with an
accumulation of probability concepts. Children are exposed every day to probability
and the language of probability, such as whether it is likely rain tomorrow or the
chances of winning a card game (Barnes, 1998).

Literature review
Probability cannot be separated from everyday life, and as such is important for
students to be instructed in these concepts. Students will have beliefs about the
likelihood of an event occurring based upon previous experiences and knowledge
causing misconceptions about probability, which is why it important to challenge these
ideas and move them from subjective thinking towards experimental and theoretical
probability thinking (Barnes, 1998). In addition to this, both children and adults may
find it challenging to reason with randomness of probability, substantiating the need
for early encounters with these concepts (Bryant & Nunes, 2012). Language used for
talking about probability and chance can pose problems when students are trying to
communicate the possibility of an event occurring. For example Fischbein, Sainati
Nello & Sciolis Marino (1999) found that children will say impossible when describing
uncertainty or a low chance, such as rolling a 3 on a fair die. Necessitating the need
for explicit education in discerning the language used to describe probability, (certain,
possible and impossible) (p. 528). Frykholm (2001) supports the idea of probability
language through everyday events, he suggests that guiding students to ask What is

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the chance that some event will occur? will help to foster and support probability
concepts (p.112).
Bryant & Nunes (2012) suggest that the understanding of randomness is indispensable
because it is located in our everyday lives. Children struggle with the concept of
randomness, but are likely to associate randomness with fairness. This association
opens a pathway for children to examine the nature of randomness further (p. 5).
Children are able to develop intuitive notions of chance, recognising that a trend may
occur, even if the event is not predictable (Frykholm, 2001). Students are better able
to develop instincts about probability, which are less reliant on subjective knowledge if
they are given the opportunity to explore probability through simulated random
phenomena (Tarr, 2002). Tarr (2002) also suggests that students understanding of
randomness can be localised by looking at data collected from a quantity of trials,
rather than only examining the results based solely of a single set of data. This can
offer students the realisation that sample size matters, when evaluating the
probability of an event (p. 484). Aspinwall & Tarr (2002) ascertained that
misconceptions about sample size for determining the probability of an event were
prevalent with some students, reasoning that the longer they played a game of chance
the more likely they are of winning. Which evidentially requires that students need to
experiment and examine repeated trials to come to the understanding that sample
size does matter in determining the likely hood of winning or the fairness of a game to
contest this misconception (p.107). Students need to be able to make connections
between the trials they are performing with, the theoretical chances of an event
occurring and apply the concept of randomness to be able to make inferences based
upon the data. Student can then draw conclusions about the likelihood of an event
occurring and apply their knowledge of randomness to make reasonable predictions
(Edwards & Hensien, 2000).

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Discussions which compel students to state their belief about their predictions benefits
the learning processes, because they are verbalising what they understand. This
verbalisation allows teachers to observe and gain a greater insight into student
understandings and can contribute towards the planning of future instruction.
Secondly it permits student understandings to be challenged, as they must justify
what they believe to be true. This justification can lead to the realisation of
misconceptions in their own judgments and the sharing of ideas can build a greater
understanding of probability concepts from more points of view. Lastly verbalising and
questioning throughout the exploration of a problem can challenge a students
judgement and lead to a greater understanding of the likely hood of events occurring
(Konold, 1991). Learning through problem solving is much more empowering and
meaningful for students because it maximises learning and develops the capacity and
capabilities for transferring the gained proficiencies to other problems and everyday
lives of students (Fi & Degner, 2012). Problem solving tasks should be facilitated by
the teacher, but allow for struggle and messiness. The problems should focus on the
big ideas and permit students to record their perceptions. It is also crucial to discuss
the solutions, as well as drawing on the mistakes and misconceptions as nonexamples to consolidate students insights (Fi & Degner, 2012). Watson (2001) found
that enjoyment and thus learning happens in probability when a few factors are
addressed. These factors incorporate probability experiences which allow for hands on
activities, games of chance and performing surveys where students can play with the
concepts and big ideas (p. 316). The exploration of chance should be investigated
using concrete materials, ICT and materials with a focus specifically on chance
(Watson, 2001).

Critique of the Curriculum

Probability is as stated earlier a tricky concept for students to grapple (Threlfall, 2004).
The AusVELS curriculum includes probability from foundation level where students are

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asked to use data to ascertain yes/no statements through to level 6 where students
are able to interpret data and communicate the probability of an event occurring
(Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA), 2014). The
curriculum begins to look at chance specifically by level 1, where students are
expected to identify and use everyday language to describe the outcome on an event.
This does not necessary mean that probability lessons are required have a
mathematical connection, as the curriculum does not stipulate that it does (Threlfall,
2004). The curriculum does not incorporate any numerical mathematical links until
level 5, where students are required recognise that probabilities range from 0 to 1
(ACARA, 2014). The fact that the curriculum does not state the need for numerical
representations of probability may affect the way in which teachers choose to present
it. Additionally to this Threlfall (2004), suggests that without explicit links to more
complex mathematical probability concepts students are less likely to gain full
understandings. But, probability concepts can be strenuous for younger students,
especially if more mathematically complex. This makes it hard to assess students
comprehension of probability concepts (p. 312).
The concept of randomness is not explicitly mentioned within AusVELS, there is more
of a focus upon the language, data collection, sample size and creating predictions
based upon experiments. This could as mentioned previously and discussed by
Aspinwall & Tarr (2002), consequently resulting in students misconceptions about the
sample space and links to randomness, as it not specifically revealed in the curriculum
documents as being important.

Conclusion
As discussed throughout, probability and chance have conceptual complexities which
may create barriers for students if not addressed. The idea of randomness in
probability is one that is not specifically mentioned within the curriculum, but as

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Bryant & Nunes (2012) suggested cannot be separated. Students need to be exposed
to probability concepts early on, as they come preloaded with their own subjective
ideas of probability before they may have even heard of the concept, which must be
challenged.

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References
Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority. (2014). The AusVEL
curriculum: mathematics. Retrieved from
http://ausvels.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Mathematics/Curriculum/F-10
Barnes,M. (1998). Dealing with Misconceptions about Probability [online]. Australian
Mathematics Teacher, 54(1) 17-20. Retrieved from
http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=436396540861333;res=IEL
HSS> ISSN: 0045-0685
Bryant, P. & Nunes, T. 2012. Childrens understanding of probability, A literature
review. Retrieved from
www.nuffieldfoundation.org
Edwards, T. G., & Hensien, S. M. (2000). Using probability experiments to foster
discourse. Teaching children mathematics, 6(8), 524. Retrieved from
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Fi, C. D. & Degner, K. M. (2012). Teaching through problem solving. The mathematics teacher. 105(6). 455459. DOI:

10.5951/mathteacher.105.6.0455

Fischbein, E., Sainati Nello, M., & Sciolis Marino, M. (1991). Factors affecting
probabilistic judgements in children and adolescents. Educational Studies in
Mathematics. 22(6), 523-549. DOI: 10.1007/BF00312714
Frykholm, J. A. (2001). Eenie, meeni, minie, moebuilding on intuitive notions of
chance. Teaching children mathematics. 8(2). Retrieved from
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Konold, C. (1991). Understanding students beliefs about probability. In E. von
Glasersfeld
(Ed.), Radical constructivism in mathematics education). Netherlands:
Kluwer Academic Publishers.

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Tarr, J. E. (2002). Providing opportunities to learn probability concepts. (Principles and
Standards). Teaching Children Mathematics, 8(8), 482-487. Retrieved from
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Threlfall, J. (2004) Uncertainty in mathematics teaching: the National Curriculum
experiment in teaching probability to primary pupils. Cambridge Journal of
Education. 34(3), 297-314. DOI: 10.1080/0305764042000289938
Watson, J. M. (2001). Profiling Teachers' Competence and Confidence to Teach
Particular Mathematics Topics: the Case of Chance and Data. Journal of
Mathematics Teacher Education. 4(4), 305-337. DOI: 10.1023/A:1013383110860