Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 12 December 2013

EU Productions
EU-28 Deliveries/Production developments
(Apr-Sep13 compared to Apr-Sep 12)

EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development

(Jan-Sep 2013 compared to Jan-Sep 2012)

Cows' Milk Collected

+ 0.70%

Cows' Milk Collected

- 0.4%

Fermented milk
- 0.4%
.

Fermented milk
- 0.0%

Cheese
+ 1.3%

Evolution en %

Evolution en %

Cheese
+ 0.6%

Milk powder cream,

Whole milk powder
and partly skimmed
milk powder
+ 2.0%

Skimmed-milk powder
- 7.2%

Skimmed-milk
powder
- 7.9%
Total Butter
- 1.2%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

Total Butter
+ 1.2%

0%

5%

10%
-12%

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

Milk powder cream,

Whole milk powder
and partly skimmed
milk powder
+ 8.3%

-7%

-2%

3%

8%

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

12 December 2013

+0.8

+5.7

-0.3

+0.9
+1.3

-20.0% to -15.0%
-15.0% to -10.0%
-10.0% to -5.0%
-5.0% to +0.0%
+0.0% to +5.0%
+5.0% to +10.0%
+10.0% to +15.0%
+15.0% to +20.0%

-2.8

+0.9
-1.9

-0.4

+3.9

+1.4

+0.4
+1.7

-3.0

-2.9
-2.0
-3.7

-1.3

-4.6

-2.7

-18.5

-4.0
-0.7

-5.5

-0.9

-1.5

+1.3

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

12 December 2013

+1.9

+6.2

+0.3

+0.5
+2.1

-24.0% to -18.0%
-18.0% to -12.0%
-12.0% to -6.0%
-6.0% to +0.0%
+0.0% to +6.0%
+6.0% to +12.0%
+12.0% to +18.0%
+18.0% to +24.0%

-3.3

+1.9
+0.4

-0.1

+6.0

+2.1

+2.2
+3.2

-3.3

-3.2
-1.9
-4.4

-0.1

-6.4

-1.0

-18.8

-1.8
-1.7

-5.1

+0.2

-3.6

0
+1.9

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

12 December 2013

Monthly Deliveries EU 28
13,000
12,500
12,000

1000 tonnes

11,500
11,000
10,500
10,000
9,500
9,000
8,500

Jan

2010

Feb

Mar

2011

Apr

May

Jun

2012

Jul

Aug

2013

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

average 2005-2009

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

12 December 2013

Source: MS communications to Eurostat

12 December 2013
Sep 13

Jul 13

May 13

Mar 13

Jan 13

Nov 12

Sep 12

Jul 12

May 12

Mar 12

Jan 12

Nov 11

Sep 11

Jul 11

May 11

Mar 11

Jan 11

Nov 10

Sep 10

Jul 10

May 10

Mar 10

Jan 10

Nov 09

Sep 09

15

Jul 09

20

May 09

25

Mar 09

30

Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-15)

23.17
30.34
9 661
21.33
29.53
9 034
27.34
10 209 20.86
25.01
10 353 20.89
24.93
10 694 20.78
20.36
25.16
10 055
25.51
9 840 20.83
21.50
26.31
9 464
21.96
26.97
8 867
22.81
27.55
9 164
24.69
28.99
8 815
25.40
28.76
9 314
25.90
29.43
9 526
26.29
29.01
8 940
26.59
28.35
10 204
26.52
28.43
10 305
25.85
29.17
10 902
25.69
30.28
10 267
25.83
31.35
10 033
26.69
32.57
9 774
28.08
33.43
9 350
28.78
33.54
9 530
29.99
33.83
9 136
29.96
33.75
9 451
30.34
33.60
9 841
30.74
33.69
9 201
30.94
33.63
10 529
31.14
33.26
10 672
30.95
33.60
11 023
30.47
34.32
10 337
30.50
34.83
10 344
30.03
35.08
9 955
29.52
35.63
9 460
30.01
35.68
9 545
30.27
35.87
9 199
30.23
35.38
9 710
30.22
35.00
10 050
31.15
34.80
9 546
30.84
33.84
10 692
29.35
32.44
10 703
27.82
31.70
11 138
27.01
31.50
10 478
27.06
31.63
10 206
27.69
31.77
9 795
28.10
32.69
9 232
29.21
33.77
9 370
30.04
34.70
9 045
30.62
34.73
9 493
30.82
34.86
9 852
30.67
34.63
9 196
30.92
34.54
10 398
30.88
34.68
10 411
30.78
34.76
11 133
30.40
36.52
10 498
31.03
37.15
10 448
31.70
37.68
10 143
33.12
39.27
9 612
34.63
40.28

35

1 492
1 380
1 541
1 543
1 713
1 685
1 679
1 656
1 536
1 464
1 343
1 402
1 413
1 299
1 486
1 519
1 661
1 636
1 635
1 623
1 539
1 482
1 359
1 409
1 438
1 315
1 492
1 489
1 644
1 626
1 674
1 664
1 581
1 556
1 452
1 523
1 558
1 450
1 614
1 610
1 779
1 745
1 742
1 714
1 602
1 572
1 453
1 515
1 542
1 431
1 592
1 586
1 726
1 683
1 741
1 703
1 624

40

Jan 09

Prices in EUR/100 kg

Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-12; EU-13 from 07/2013)

Weighted average Milk price (EU-12; EU-13 from

07/2013)
Weighted average Milk price (EU-15)

10

0
24 000

22 000

20 000

18 000

16 000

14 000

12 000

10 000

Source : Eurostat, Reg. (EC) No 429/2010 Art. 3

Productions in 1 000 Tons

EU 15/12 Milk Deliveries and Prices

36 000

34 000

32 000

30 000

28 000

26 000

8 000

6 000

4 000

2 000

Milk Prices Evolution

(up to October 2013)

EUR/100 kg
50

LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat)

48

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

46

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)

44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26

24

12 December 2013

Jan 14

Sep 13

Jan 13

May 13

Sep 12

Jan 12

May 12

Sep 11

Jan 11

May 11

Sep 10

Jan 10

May 10

Sep 09

Jan 09

May 09

Sep 08

May 08

Jan 08

Sep 07

Jan 07

May 07

Sep 06

Jan 06

May 06

Sep 05

Jan 05

May 05

Sep 04

Jan 04

May 04

Sep 03

Jan 03

May 03

Sep 02

Jan 02

May 02

Sep 01

Jan 01

May 01

Sep 00

Jan 00

May 00

22
20

Source :MS communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 + LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland

EU Milk Prices
(October 2013 compared to October 2012)
EU28 in 2013 - EU 27 in 2012

62

58.4

58
Milk Price 2012

Milk Price 2013

54

51.2

49.4

50
46
42.5 42.3 41.7 41.7

41.6

40.8 40.4 40.1

39.5

42
38.4

37.0 36.7 36.5 36.5

35.5 35.3 35.1 35.1 34.8

34.5 34.4 34.1

38
32.6

31.3

34

30

in EUR/100 kg

44.8 44.1

26
22

18
14
CY MT FI IE EL SE NL DE IT DK BE AT LU EU UK ES FR HR LT PT EE CZ BG HU SI SK PL LV RO

Estimates for IT and CY

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others
to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010
Source: MS communications under Reg. 479//2010

12 December 2013

2010

2011

2012

2013

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Jan

Feb

,425
,400
,375
,350
,325
,300
,275
,250
,225
,200
,175
,150

EUR/100 kg

Monthly EU SMP Prices

IP 2009

Source: MS communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

12 December 2013

Monthly EU BUTTER Prices

,425
,400
,350
,325

,300
,275
,250

EUR/100 kg

,375

,225
,200

,175

2010
2013

2011
IP 2009

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

,150

2012
Avg 2007-2009

Source: MS communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

12 December 2013

10

,140

12 December 2013
BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

,360

,320

Dec 13

Sep 13

Jun 13

Mar 13

Dec 12

Sep 12

Jun 12

Mar 12

Dec 11

Sep 11

Jun 11

Mar 11

Dec 10

Sep 10

Jun 10

Mar 10

Dec 09

Sep 09

Jun 09

Mar 09

Dec 08

Sep 08

Jun 08

Mar 08

Dec 07

Sep 07

Jun 07

Mar 07

Dec 06

Sep 06

Jun 06

Mar 06

Dec 05

Sep 05

Jun 05

Mar 05

Dec 04

,380

Jun 04

,400

Sep 04

,420

Mar 04

Dec 03

Sep 03

Jun 03

Mar 03

in EUR/100 kg

EU Dairy Quotations

(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

,440

407.0
401.8

370.9

,340

317.6

,300

,280

,260

,240

,220

,200

,180

,160

Source: MS communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

11

Monthly EU WMP Prices

,410
,390

,370
,350
,330
,310
,290

,270
,250
,230
,210
,190
,170

12 December 2013

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

,150

2010

2011

2012

2013

Avg 2007-2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: MS communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

12

Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2010

2011

2010

2013

Avg 2007-2009

2010

2011

2012

,420
,400
,380
,360
,340
,320
,300
,280
,260
,240
,220
,200
Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

,420
,400
,380
,360
,340
,320
,300
,280
,260
,240
,220
,200
,180

Jan

Monthly EU EDAM Prices

2 013

Source: MS communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

12 December 2013

13

Monthly EU WheyPowder Prices

,120
,100
,80
,60
,40

2010

2011

2012

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

,20

2013

Source: MS communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

12 December 2013

14

USD/EUR
US Dollar

1.3750

12 December 2013

Source: European Central Bank

15

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

6 000
Avg Oceania SMP quotation

5 500
Avg EU SMP internal Price

5 000

Avg US SMP quotation

4 600
4 350
4 260

Prices in USD/tonne

4 500
4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000

1 500

12 December 2013

Nov 13

Aug 13

May 13

Feb 13

Nov 12

Aug 12

May 12

Feb 12

Nov 11

Aug 11

Feb 11

May 11

Nov 10

Aug 10

Feb 10

May 10

Nov 09

Aug 09

May 09

Feb 09

Nov 08

Aug 08

Feb 08

May 08

Nov 07

Aug 07

Feb 07

May 07

Nov 06

1 000

Aug 06

Source: MS communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

16

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

6 000
Avg Oceania Butter quotation

5 500

5 470

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation

5 000

Prices in USD/tonne

4 500
4 000

4 000

3 660

3 500
3 000

2 500
2 000
1 500

12 December 2013

Nov 13

Aug 13

May 13

Feb 13

Nov 12

Aug 12

May 12

Feb 12

Nov 11

Aug 11

Feb 11

May 11

Nov 10

Aug 10

May 10

Feb 10

Nov 09

Aug 09

May 09

Feb 09

Nov 08

Aug 08

May 08

Feb 08

Nov 07

Aug 07

May 07

Feb 07

Nov 06

1 000

Aug 06

Source: MS communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

17

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

6 000
Avg Oceania WMP quotation

5 500

Avg EU WMP internal Price

5 000

Avg US WMP quotation

4 990
4 950

Prices in USD/tonne

4 500

4 440

4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500

12 December 2013

Nov 13

Aug 13

Feb 13

May 13

Nov 12

Aug 12

Feb 12

May 12

Nov 11

Aug 11

May 11

Feb 11

Nov 10

Aug 10

May 10

Feb 10

Nov 09

Aug 09

May 09

Feb 09

Nov 08

Aug 08

May 08

Feb 08

Nov 07

Aug 07

May 07

Feb 07

Nov 06

Aug 06

1 000

Source: MS communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

18

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

6 000
Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

5 500

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

5 420

Avg US Cheddar quotation

5 000

Prices in USD/tonne

4 500

4 500
4 110

4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000

1 500

12 December 2013

Nov 13

Aug 13

Feb 13

May 13

Nov 12

Aug 12

May 12

Feb 12

Nov 11

Aug 11

May 11

Feb 11

Nov 10

Aug 10

May 10

Feb 10

Nov 09

Aug 09

May 09

Feb 09

Nov 08

Aug 08

Feb 08

May 08

Nov 07

Aug 07

May 07

Feb 07

Nov 06

1 000

Aug 06

Source: MS communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

19

Adjusted U.S. milk production

(months of constant length)
8 200

8 000
7 800

7 600

7 200
7 000

in tonnes

7 400

6 800
Jan-Oct 2013 compared to 2012 : + 0.5% (real monthly production)

2009

2010

2011

2012

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

6 600

2013

Source:USDA

12 December 2013

20

Australian milk production

1,200
Jul-Oct 2013/14 compared to 2012/13 : - 4.2%
1,100

1,000

,800

in tonnes

,900

,700
,600

2010/11

12 December 2013

2011/12

2012/13

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

,500

2013/14

Source: Dairy Australia

21

NZ milk production
3 500
Jun-Sep 2013/2014 compared to 2012/2013 : + 6.9%
3 000

2 000

1 500

in tonnes

2 500

1 000
500

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/2013

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

2013/2014

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

12 December 2013

22

Results of the GDT Auction of 03.12.2013

% change by contract from previous auction

Prices

in US$/t
AMF
Butter
BMP
Cheeses
MPC70
Rennet Casein
Lactose
SMP
WMP

Jan-14

n.a.
4 055
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
4 558
5 025

5 384
3 740
4 960
4 470
8 170
10 771
n.a.
4 802
5 000
1=

03/12/2013

in /t
AMF
Butter
BMP
Cheese
MPC70
Rennet Casein
Lactose
SMP
WMP

Feb-14

Jan-14

2 986

3 357
3 701

Feb-14

3 965
2 755
3 653
3 292
6 017
7 932
3 537
3 683

Mar-14

5 440
3 735
4 990
4 586
8 395
11 585
1 730
4 781
5 081

Apr-14

May-14

5 392
3 695
n.a.
4 456
n.a.
n.a.
1 730
4 816
5 121

5 283
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1 730
4 918
5 081

Jun-14

5 610
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
5 745
n.a.

Jul-14

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

Aug-14

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

Weighted
average
price

5 395
3 750
4 630
4 501
8 242
11 011
1 730
4 791
5 035

% change

Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

Apr-14

+ 2.0%

+ 2.2%

+ 2.8%

+ 4.8%

+ 4.0%

+ 4.2%

- 2.6%

+ 4.9%

+ 4.0%

- 1.8%

- 3.5%

+ 1.7%

+ 5.8%

+ 4.8%

+ 8.0%

+ 2.7%
+ 4.7%

+ 5.3%

+ 3.4%

+ 3.0%

+ 9.6%

+ 20.1%

Jul-14

- 3.3%

+ 16.2% + 19.7%

+ 16.9%

+ 4.5%

May-14 Jun-14

+ 2.8%

+ 4.7%

+ 4.1%

+ 4.2%

+ 7.3%

+ 2.8%

+ 4.9%

+ 5.3%

+ 0.5%

1.3578 $ (ECB rate)

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

4 007
3 971
3 891
4 132
2 751
2 721
3 675
3 378
3 282 #VALUE! #VALUE!
6 183 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
8 532 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
1 274
1 274
1 274
3 521
3 547
3 622
4 231
3 742
3 771
3 742 #VALUE!

Jul-14

Aug-14

#VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

Weighted
average price

3 974
2 762
3 410
3 315
6 070
8 110
6 936
3 528
3 708

Source : http://www.globaldairytrade.info/

12 December 2013

23

Aug-14