Keeping Cool in a

Warming World
World Bank Group, 4C Final Project
Anthony OCallaghan

Introduction:
What is Climate Change?
- Climate change can be defined as any change in climate over an extended amount
of time due to natural variability or anthropogenic (human) activities. The changes
are mapped using tests to look at the properties of the climate and noting any
changes in their mean and/or variability. (IPPC, 2007)

- It is the weather averaged over a period of time (generally 3 months), looking at

the averages of temperature, rainfall as well as wind direction and speed. Since 1850,
instrumental temperature measurements taken all over the world have shown an
increase in around 0.8oC, with clear
increases after industrialisation, and
with the greatest increases occurring
after the 1970s till the present
(0.55C). (Metz, 2010)

A Polar bears disappearing habitat, Alaska. (ESLP, 2011)

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The Green House Effect

The earths climate is a result of the radiative budget produced by the
greenhouse effect that raises the earths temperature around 33oC. It is the
balance of incoming energy from the sun and the energy reflected, absorbed and
emitted from the atmosphere and surface of the earth with the tilt and orbit of
the earth around the sun can also affect the energy received (Milankovitch
cycles). (USEPA, 2011 d)

Picture 2 shows the Greenhouse effect and the influences it has. The forcings
and feedbacks from the oceans, continents and atmosphere, combining to
produce the energy balance of around 240 watts/m2. The extra energy produced
as well as the positive feedbacks are what is thought to have caused the increase
temperatures. (Ritter, 2009)
Using ice core, tree ring, glacier lengths, pollen remains and rock samples,
temperature measurements have been able to be analysed up to millions of years
ago with the earths climate experiencing several cycles of cooling and warming
during that time. Since the 1900s the world has experienced a definite warming
trend in the climate. (MO, 2012 b)
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The Green House Effect (cont.)

There is overwhelming support for the theory that the warming is due to the level
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the longer life gas, CO2, has a forcing
effect and can remain in the atmosphere for 100 years, while CH4, that has a
stronger effect, can remain for only 10 years.
The greatest levels are of H2O, which acts as a feedback and increases as
temperature increases, but is only a product of the temperature and not of any
other changes. Other gases include N2O, SOx, O3 and CFCs. (MO, 2011 (c))
The concentrations of these gases are the result of emissions (natural and
anthropogenic) as well as their removal in soils, vegetation and oceans.

Picture 2:
The Greenhouse
effect
(UNEP, 2002)

Chimney Stacks, (Toptenz, 2015)

Anthropogenic Climate Change

While natural climate change is a result

of; solar output, volcanic eruptions and
the Milankovitch cycle; Anthropogenic
climate change is change resulting from or
produced by human activity. Sources of
anthropogenic climate change include
agriculture, energy use, deforestation, industrial production and population
growth. (Metz, 2010)
In 2001 when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
produced their 3rd report, it was possible on the current information to
assess the changes and impacts from social and economic factors and their
emissions. By the time the 4th report came out in 2007, improved mitigation
and adaptation strategies could be developed to try and reduce emission
levels and avoid future impacts. (IPCC, 2007)
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Causes of Climate Change

Natural Causes
Natural causes of climate change include;
1.Variations in the suns intensity that will affect the amount of light that reaches
earth, fluctuations can cause warming or cooling; 2.Milankovich cycles, that are
variations in earths tilt and orbit again affecting the amount of light received;
3.Volcanic eruptions that release aerosols that can induce short term cooling by
blocking sunlight and CO2 emissions that will produce a warming effect.
These natural drivers can then cause further changes, increasing or decreasing
greenhouse gases and changes in the ocean currents. The feedbacks can induce
further warming or reduce the effects and add to cooling. (USEPA, 2011 d)
Picture 3: CO2 Levels (NASA, 2015).

Causes of Climate Change

Anthropogenic Causes
The main causes of climate change from anthropogenic sources are the result of increases in
greenhouse gases, aerosol emissions and land use changes.
Greenhouse gas emissions are produced from;
- One of the main effects has been from increased CO2 levels, rising by a third since the
Industrial Revolution. This has been due to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and land
use changes. It is estimated there has been a 36% increase in CO2 levels since preindustrial
times, with current concentrations higher than in the last 650,000 years, with almost all due to
anthropogenic causes. (USEPA, 2011 (e)) This rise in CO2 levels can be clearly seen in picture 3
(NASA, 2015).
CH4 levels have increased due to emissions from landfill wastes, domestic livestock from
ruminant digestion and manure as well as agricultural practices particularly rice crops. Levels
are also at their highest now than they have been in the last 650,000 years, and are at 148%
above preindustrial levels, with only their rate of increase slowing in the past few years.
(USEPA, 2011 (e))
N2O is produced from the addition of commercial and organic fertilisers to soil, the
combustion of fossil fuels, nitric acid production and biomass burning such as forest fires. In
the past 200 years there has been an 18% increase in levels, with rapid increases at the end of
the 20th century. (USEPA, 2011 (e))
Halocarbons like CFCs, are synthetic compounds, and were mainly used in refrigerants,
aerosol propellants, foaming agents, pesticides and solvents. They were increasing steadily
since their introduction in 1928 but have now been phased out of production and heavily
regulated due to their destructive potential of the ozone layer.
O3 is produced when emissions from industrial and commercial sources, transportation and
power plants react with sunlight, with a 36% increase in concentrations since pre-industrial
times. It can also be a hazardous air pollutant at ground level. (USEPA, 2011 (e))
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Aerosol emissions are produced from a range of sources including;

Sulfate aerosols, released when coal and oil are burned, produce a cooling effect. Due to the reduction of
coal-fired power stations, emissions of SO2 have also been reduced.
Black Carbon is the product of the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels as well as land clearing and
forest fires. It is thought global concentrations are still increasing, as air pollution measures are not in
place worldwide.
Agricultural practices producing dust as a bi-product.
Production of organic droplets and soot from bio-mass burning.
Transport emissions producing aerosols, as well as products that undergo chemical reactions in the
atmosphere to become aerosols.
Northern hemisphere aerosol concentrations are 3 times higher than those in the Southern hemisphere.
(WMO, ND)
(USEPA, 2011 (e))

Land use changes are resulting in;

Deforestation, desertification and urbanisation can significantly affect the albedo of an area. It is
thought that current land use changes are having a negative radiative forcing effect and producing a slight
cooling.
Around one-fifth of the climate forcing changing greenhouse gas emissions has been attributed to land
use changes.
Reduction of tropical rainforests is changing evapotranspiration rates changing water vapour levels in
the atmosphere.
(WMO, ND)
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Where is it Being Felt?

Picture 3: Global temperature changes by continent from

natural and natural and anthropogenic forcings (IPPC, 2007)

The changes the climate is producing on a worldwide scale include increases in land and
ocean temperatures, changes in rainfall amounts and distributions, sea level rises and greater
coastal erosion as well as higher incidence of natural disasters due to the severity of weather
patterns. These changes will not only impact the environment, but will also affect social and
economic sectors producing considerable costs. The impacts wont be felt evenly throughout
the world, but will impact on some areas more so than others and greatly affect the more
vulnerable sectors of society, the elderly, the sick and the poor. (CEC, 2009)
Included in this are those less able to afford the costs of mitigation and adaptation such as te
developing countries. These countries economies are predominantly driven by climatesensitive sectors and many are barely able to survive on what little they have. As the
populations grow and further industrialisation takes place, especially in countries like China
and India (Anderson & Bows, 2009), combined with the accompanying extra demands for
energy and resources, as well as the climatic changes, people will be placed even more at risk.
(MO, 2011 (g))
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What Can Be Done?

Individual
Think globally, act locally, the slogan that calls each and every one of us to make a difference.
- Energy Usage - making some simple changes to our daily lives can produce a vast change to
our enegy usage. Turning lights and appliances off when not in a room or not using them,
taking them off standby can save a substantial amount of electricity over the year, 25% for
computers and almost 50% for televisons. (SEAI, 2015)
- Water Usage - like our energy, being aware of the amount we use and conserving where we
can can save a valuable resource and save us money in the process. Fixing leaks in the home
can save up to 1500l/year from a leaking tap and 16000l/year from a leaking toilet. (UISCE
Irish Water, 2015)
To help improve compliance and reduce waste/leakages in the system, Ireland has recently
introduced water charges and has a new water authority to better maintain standards and
supply.
- Purchases - While improving our own compliance, we can also improve/influence business
compliance and greening through purchasing power. We can choose those products produced
more sustainably and with a greater environmental focus. By choosing the 'greener' food,
clothing and consumer goods from the businesses that have a strong green focus, we can
influence businsses further down the greening economy.
Focussing on businesses with a clear 'Social Mission' statment, that are involved with their
community and business partners as well as their team members in focussing on their
environmental commitment. (Endline, S. 2013)

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Individual (cont.)
- Waste Disposal -Reduce, Reuse, Recycle. It takes 95% less energy to to use a recycled
aluminium can and 75% less for a steel can. (NC Greenpower, 2012)
If we can start reducing the amount we throw away and shopping for products with
less/recyclable packaging, we can further influbcebusinesses through consumer power.
Buying only the food we will need and reducing the amount of food waste we produce
combined with composting can substantioally reduce waste and the impact we have on the
waste system.
Ireland has also implemented the Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE)
program that allows for the colection and removal of equipment and waste batteries, keeping
them out of landfills and grestly improving their levels of recycling. (WEEE, 2015)
- Voting - As a voting public, we have the people power to be able to cast our vote to ensure
the Goverments that are most in line with an environmental
focus and have the strongest committment to mitigating climate
change.
Whether through Regulatory Instruments of stringent standards
or a Market Based Approach of either carbon tax or emissions
trading schemes, the political will must be there to see the
schemes through as well as to police them.

(S3 EU West, 2015)

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Conclusion:
Climate change is a major issue facing the world today on a global scale that
will affect different regions in very different ways, with some areas
benefitting and other bearing the brunt of the negative impacts.
The evidence is very strongly in favour of the major sources of the problems
being anthropogenic in nature, with the developed, northern hemisphere
countries, applying pressure on the developing southern hemisphere
countries.
The language in the IPCC report (2007) and beyond is clearly pronounced,
that there are serious climate changes currently in progress, however, equally
as clear are any areas in the modelling or data collection that require more
work or are deficient in any way. They have gone to great lengths to try and
provide a transparent approach to the issue. This is important to engender
trust in the wider public as they will be the ones that will have to implement
the safer practices and live with the restrictions governments will need to put
into place to combat the climate change.

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Conclusion (cont.):
Although the costs of mitigation will be excessive, the costs of inactivity will be even
more extreme and action must be taken as soon as possible to work to reduce
emissions, aerosols and current land practices.
Improving methods and models of prediction and improved data will help future
modelling and accuracy, but as far as current testing techniques can tell us, the climate
has never been through such a rapid period of change, with current models reflecting
quite closely the alarming rises in the past few decades.
There are signs that the International community is taking the climate change message
more seriously.
The joint statement from Angela Merkel and Franois Hollande calling for a shared
vision and concrete action for a "profound trasnsformation" economically and socially
to limit warming to under 2C. (Merkel, A. and Hollande, F. 2015)
There is now no denying these changes are anthropogenic in nature and by reducing
the impact humans are having on the environment, we can achieve greater levels of
sustainability and begin to live within the earths capacity to support current and
future generations.
Its not too late, but we need to act NOW.

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References:
Anderson, K. & Bows, A. 2009. Beyond dangerous climate change: emission scenarios for a new
world, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0290 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 13 January 2011 vol. 369 no. 1934 20-44,
Available at: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full [Accessed 18 May 2015]
Commission of the European Communities (CEC), 2009. White Paper, Adapting to climate change:
Towards a European framework for action, Available at: http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2009:0147:FIN:EN:PDF [Accessed 17 May 2015]
Endline, S. 2013. Think Global, Act Local: Four Ways Your Company Can Be Socially Responsible
And Prosperous, Available at:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/entrepreneursorganization/2013/09/09/think-global-act-local-fourways-your-company-can-be-socially-responsible-and-prosperous/ [Accessed 20 May 15]
European Commission (EC), 2009. Climate Change, Available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/pubs/pdf/factsheets/climate_change.pdf [Accessed 16 May 2015]

IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis report, Available at:

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf [Accessed 17 May 2015]
Meteorological Office (MO), 2012 (b). What affects our climate? Available at:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/what-is-it/affects [Accessed 20 May 2015]

Metz, B. 2010. Controlling Climate Change, Available at: http://www.amazon.com/ControllingClimate-Change-Bert-Metz/dp/0521747848#reader_0521747848 [Accessed 18 May 2015]

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References (cont.):
Merkel, A. and Hollande, F. 2015. Petersberg Dialogue Call for Climate Action - Joint Statement
from Angela Merkel and Franois Hollande (May 19, 2015) Available at:
http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy-1/climate-7436/events7880/article/petersberg-dialogue-call-for [Accessed 20 May 15]
MO (g) 2011. Impacts on the Developing World, Available at:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/impacts/developing [Accessed 20 May 2015]
NASA, 2015. The current and future consequences of global change, Available at:
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ [Accessed 18 May 2015]
NC Greenpower, 2015. Recycling Saves Energy, Available at:
http://ncgreenpower.blogspot.ie/2012_06_01_archive.html [Accessed 17 May 15]
Ritter, S.K. 2009. Global Warming And Climate Change, Chemical & Engineering News, December
21, 2009, Volume 87, Number 51, pp. 11 21, Available at:
http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/87/8751cover.html [Accessed 17 May 2015]
Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI), 2015. Electricity Saving Tips, Available at:
http://www.seai.ie/Power_of_One/Energy_Saving/Electricity_Saving_Tips/ [Accessed 19 May 15]
Toptenz. 2015. Climate Change 9, Available at: http://www.toptenz.net/wpcontent/uploads/2015/05/cchange9.jpg [Accessed 19 May 2015]
UISCE Irish Water, 2015. Helpful Information, Available at: http://www.water.ie/docs/helpfulinformation-booklet.pdf [Accessed 18 May 15]
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References (cont.):
United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), 2002. Greenhouse effect,
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/greenhouse-effect [Accessed 18 May 2015]
USEPA, 2011 (d). Past Climate Change, Available at:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html [Accessed 17 May 2015]
USEPA, 2011 (e). Atmospheric Changes, Available at:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.html [Accessed 18 May 2015]
Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) Ireland, 2015. About WEEE Ireland, Avilable at:
http://www.weeeireland.ie/about-weee-ireland/ [Accessed 17 May 15]
World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), ND. Causes of Climate Change, Available at:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/causes_of_climate_change.php [Accessed 15 May 2015]

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