Introduction

Think Security Africa 2015 Annual Report

FROM LOCAL TO GLOBAL
Since Think Security Africa (TSA) was established, it has risen to the formidable
task of making a tangible contribution to badly needed debate on security
developments in Africa, whilst being in a small field already saturated by experienced
players. Starting a new orgnaisation was not a decision that I took lightly, in view of
the challenges involved. However, the fact that TSA is an independent organisation
has given us the freedom to develop new and critical methods and specialisations.
ADUNOLA ABIOLA
Founder & CEO Think Security Africa

TSA is now the global leader in foreasting security trends in Africa and strategic
planning, this is something that adds value to calculations made by a relatively small
group of national, regional, and global policymakers, as well as investors.

Our annual report is usually an internal exercise to assist us in determining whether or not we are fulfilling our
founding objectives, and it ultimately helps me to determine whether the results and impact we are having warrants
the ongoing existence of TSA. The rationale behind making our annual report public this year is two-fold. Firstly, it is
important for our website users to understand the import of what they are reading or viewing. Secondly, the willingness
of key stakeholders to measure their performance and effectiveness is increasingly going to determine security conditions
in Africa (and even beyond), and I would like to be the change that I wish to see.
I would like to thank all the governments, officials, groups, institutions, and communities across Africa that have
granted TSA the access and interviews needed to undertake research. Especially those that have been openminded and understanding of the important, impersonal and rising stakes (increasingly transcending national interests)
involved in the work that we do. I would also like to thank all advisers, researchers, contributors, graphic and web
designers for their important contribution.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"#$%&'(!")*&'(

THINK SECURITY AFRICA

Since Think Security Africa started in 2009, it has become
a leader in political and strategic risk identification and
management for Africa.
It has grown from being a simple but important idea,
to being a repository of continent-wide foresight, critical
to the formulation of improved security policy for Africa.
Extensive field experience across several countries, is a
critical component of our ability to consistently stay
ahead of the most important security-related
developments in Africa.

Security in Africa
There is a rise in the number of countries impacted by conflict in Africa. This is occuring alongside a global
economic slowdown, which may result in the decline of badly needed investment. This is most worrisome, as
many African governments have articulated plans to become middle-income countries in the next 5 - 20 years.

2012

2013

In 2012 there were 6 African

countries impacted by conflict.

46%

This grew by one, to 7 in

2013.

10

2014
The number of countries grew
further in 2014.

46% of Africas population is currently living in a country impacted by serious

conflict. The number of Africans living in abject poverty is roughly equal to the
number of Africans living in violence-hit countries. The issue of conflict (and other
violence) is as much a developmental issue, as it is a security one.

RESPONDING PROACTIVELY
Supporting existing efforts to inculcate a more proactive response to
security management in Africa, is the essence of what we do at Think
Security Africa.

TSAsResearchFocus
At Think Security Africa we specialise in forecasting security-related trends in Africa. In the six years since we started
we have built a solid track record of doing this effectively.

ACCURACY

TIMELINESS

RELEVANCE

REPORTS

94%

100%

100%

BLOGS

88%

100%

100%

PRESENTATIONS

100%

100%

100%

OUR RESULTS
Our forecasts have a 100% score for
both timeliness and relevance. We have
a demonstrated record of providing
foresight on the most important security
related developments across Africa, well
before they are needed. Overall,the accuracy
of our headline assessments is 91%.

OUR RESEARCH FOCUS

We have hundreds of resources on the Think Security Africa website in html, pdf, photographic, video, and presentation
format.
The vast majority of our resources relate to national issues, and account for 70% of the resources on our website.
.
20% of the downloadable resources, are related to armed groups operating in Africa. 10% of the resources
on the website relate to either regional security issues or terrorism.

20%

70%

NATIONAL SECURITY

ARMED GROUPS

10%

REGIONAL SECURITY
/ TERRORISM

Measuring Impact
In the six years since Think Security Africa started, we have developed metrics by which we assess the extent
to which are are fulfilling our founding objectives.

USAGE

RELIABILITY

The extent to which our

resources are used. We
have chosen to use downloads
vs. visitor numbers

The reliability of our

resources. Measured
by accuracy, timeliness,
& relevance.

GLOBAL REACH

SOCIAL

The geographic spread and

reach of our message

Social interaction with

our resources

THINK SECURITY AFRICA TIMELINE

2009-10

2011

2012-13

2014

Start-up

Registration

Project Evolution

Feature

Creation of an
organisational
blueprint

Formal registration
in England & Wales

Development of
projects and resources

Feature in UNESCOs
Culture of Peace in
Africa project

THINK SECURITY AFRICA

Has evolved from being an idea, to becoming a globally recognised organisation in six years.
We measure our organisations impact by the extent of resource usage, the reach of our message,
the reliability of our resources, and social engagement.

2015

6 Continents
TSA research featured
across six continents

UTILISATION

NationalSecurityDownloads
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RELIABILITY

NIGERIAS 2015 ELECTIONS

RISING TERRORISM

SECURITY IN AFRICA 2014

03/15 Free & Fair elections likely to

produce no clear winner. Voting
patterns were in line with
expectations. However, the outcome
was not in line with our projection.

02/15 Projected the rising influence

of ISIS & expressed concern that
efforts to counter extremism could
fuel it. Subsequently, 2 major
African terrorist groups joined ISIS.

01/15 Amidst rising conflict preserving stability in Africa should result in

the postponement of elections. This
occurred in Nigeria, CAR, South
Sudan & Burundi from 02/15.

Accurate " Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

SECURITY PROFILE KENYA

DRC & NEIGHBOURS

BRIEFING IVORY COAST

08/14 Likely rise in insurgent-like

activity in Kenya. Hallmarks have
become clear in Garissa, Mandera
& Wajir counties.

06/14 Highlighted the importance of

diplomacy as the most important
tool in combating violence in the
DRC, in view of the countries 9
neighbouring states.

05/14 Focused on the need to

maintain cohesion between the
RDR & PDCI parties for ongoing
stability. 02/15 Daoukro declaration
was made in support of this.

Accurate ! Relevant Timely

Accurate n/a Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

MALI BRIEFING

BRING BACK OUR GIRLS

04/14 Highlighted the importance of

skill vs. money for a more equal
society. 04/15 foreign shop owners
were in essence attacked for their
relative capability.

04/14 Failure to engage nationalists

in the North, could create more
space for extremism to flourish.
There have since been deadly
attacks in Bamako and other towns.

04/14 Rescue efforts unlikely to be

successful. In 10/14, there were
reports of a high-level rescue effort.
Subsequently women were rescued.
The Chibok girls are yet to be rescued.

Accurate Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

INEQUALITY SOUTH AFRICA

SECURITY IN AFRICA 2013

MAKING IT IN AFRICA

FRANCE IN AFRICA

03/14 Warned of the urgent need to

take concerted efforts to prevent
conflict. Subsequently, between
2013 - 14 the number of serious
African conflicts rose from 7 to 10.

09/13 Volume of young Africans &

unemployment could combine to
create serious national & regional
problems. It didnt envisage the
scale of drownings off North Africa.

12/12 French plans to retreat from

Africa militarily unlikely to succeed.
In 2015 French military engagement
encompasses operations across the
Sahel, CAR, & against Boko Haram.

Accurate Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

BORDER SECURITY

SECURITY IN NIGER

07/12 Assessed the urgent need to

improve border security. By 2014,
45% of African states were seriously
impacted by border insecurity, up
12% from the previous year.

06/12 Raised concerns about contagion from across the region. From
05/13 Niger has been attacked on 3
fronts & has become more reliant on
external partnerships.

05/12 Ability to deliver on economic

needs would decide the fate of
Muslim Brotherhood govt, more
than ideological solidarity. They
were removed following protests.

Accurate Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

OIL, GAS & SECURITY

SECURITY IN NIGERIA

FDI & INSECURITY

09/11 Rising oil & gas states may

result in maritime disputes & civil
unrest. 2012-14 there were 3 new
maritime disputes, & civil unrest
over oil occurred in Chad & Niger.

06/11 Warned about the rise of

extremists & rising regional oil
production. Nigeria is fighting to
reverse an existential Salafist threat
& maintain economic stability.

10/10 Assessed investment trends

in conflict-impacted countries, and
conditions under which ongoing FDI
inflows persist. Patterns persisted in
South Sudan and Sudan.

Accurate Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

Accurate Relevant Timely

SECURITY PRIORITES EGYPT

REACH

SOCIAL

!
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