Analysis of WRF-Hydro Simulations of the 2008 Iowa Floods: Effects and Sensitivity of

Model Structure and Precipitation Forcing

Mohamed ElSaadani1, Tim Lahmers2
1
2

Iowa Flood Center, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa

University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona

Abstract:
WRF-Hydro is run From 1 April 2008 to 30 September 2008 with NLDAS atmospheric forcing.
The model is run in the following two configurations: 1) using the Noah MP LSM, channel
routing, sub surface routing, overland flow, and baseflow and 2) using only the Noah MP LSM
to force RAPID (i.e. NFIE Hydro). Using these two configurations, WRF-Hydro is forced with
both NLDAS precipitation and NCEP-Stage-IV precipitation. The skill of the model using these
configurations and forcing is examined at USGS stream gauges throughout the Iowa study area.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Sensitivity analysis and calibration of NFIE-Hydro in Texas
Tim Ivancic1, Taereem Kim2, Manab Saharia3
1

SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, New York

Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
3
University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma
2

Abstract:
Uncertainty in precipitation input can take on a number of forms. In addition to error in
measured precipitation, there can be uncertainty in intensity and spatial and temporal distribution
of forecast data. When propagated through a hydrologic model, these errors can have a
measurable impact on streamflow predictions and impact the ability to properly assess flood
extent in events such as the 2015 Memorial Day Flood in Austin and Houston, Texas. In this
project, we force the WRF-Hydro (NoahMP) using various synthetic and measured precipitation
products. The runoff from the WRF-Hydro model is then routed using RAPID. The first input
ensemble measures the impact of a spatially independent gaussian precipitation error on the
streamflow output. The second consists of uniform pulses of precipitation with varying intensity
and duration and is intended to estimate the sensitivity of streamflow to forecasted precipitation
intensity. We also force the model with uniform pulses corresponding to several return periods
with values extracted from a point distribution. The third uses a spatially and temporally
redistributed precipitation signal to estimate the sensitivity of streamflow to forecasted
precipitation distribution. The model results are validated by comparing with the observed USGS
station streamflow.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Spatio-temporal validations of the WRF-Hydro/RAPID simulated water fluxes over Texas:

interplay between uncertainties in modeled evapotranspiration and surface/subsurface
runoff
Peirong Lin1, Mohammad Adnan Rajib2, Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela3, Yan Wang4
1

Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas

Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
3
Center for Research in Water Resources, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas
4
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
2

Abstract:
Appropriate model diagnostics is important for successful implementation of the National Flood
Interoperability Experiment (NFIE) toward national-scale flood monitoring and forecasting. In
this project, the WRF-Hydro/RAPID modeling framework is evaluated by focusing on the spatial
and temporal uncertainties in three hydrological variables, namely evapotranspiration (ET),
surface runoff and subsurface runoff. The model outputs for a wet year (2008) and an extreme
drought year (2011) are compared against the MODIS ET products and USGS gauge
observations covering the entire state extent of Texas. A novel python-based algorithm is
employed to dynamically extract and populate ~5 km model grids with 8-day MODIS ET
estimates. To separate the surface and subsurface runoff components, a recursive digital filter is
run with the daily streamflow data from 486 USGS gauging sites. Then, the inverse distance
weighted (IDW) interpolation technique is employed to generate the surface and subsurface
runoff fields at ~5 km spatial resolution, appropriate to be used as observational datasets. It is
found that ET is consistently under-predicted over the wet regions, and over-predicted over the
arid to semi-arid regions of Texas, with possible significant differences in absolute values
beween model simulation and corresponding MODIS ET estimates. Accordingly, this distinct
spatial pattern in the ET biases is related to the biases in surface and subsurface runoff fields to
understand their mutual cause-effect relationship and interplay.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Evaluation of Forecast values using WRF-Hydro and Rapid through error estimation
Gonzalo Espinoza1, Kayla Cotterman2
1
2

Center for Research in Water Resources, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas
Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan

Abstract:
Floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters, therefore it is imperative to have flood
forecasts that are early and accurate to help prevent life and property loss. The National Flood
Interoperability Experiment (NFIE) forecasts stream discharge for all river reaches in the
National Hydrographic Dataset (NHD). An assessment of the quality of the predicted values is
required for validating the model. This research uses the forecast discharge produced by two
models: WRF-Hydro and the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge

(RAPID). WRF-Hydro is used for atmospheric coupling and hydrologic modeling (Gochis, Yu,
& Yates, 2013), and RAPID calculates stream discharge over the NHD network (David, Yang, &
Hong, 2013). The present research evaluates the error in the predictions from the WRF-Hydro
and RAPID models by comparing to the discharge values taken from the USGS stream gauges
network for a week of data from 06/10/2015 to 06/16/2015. The present research proves that the
forecast values are consistent due to the error decreasing as the time for the predicted values
approaches the predicted forecast time. In addition, the error is computed and compared for the
USGS II network, which is a subset of the gauges not affected by human activity. The research
estimates the standard error made in the forecast. It also identifies the hydrologic regions where
the model is performing well and areas where a more detailed model is needed.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Evaluation of model skill for the newly developed NFIE streamflow forecast workflows
Scott Christensen1, Shawn Carter2, Chad Drake3
1

Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah

University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
3
University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa
2

Abstract:
The National Weather Service provides hydrologic forecasts at nearly 4,000 locations across the
United States. These forecasts, developed by 13 River Forecast Centers as part of the Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS), are based on the lump-parameter models Sacramento
Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) and Snow17. However, recent advances in
hydrologic modeling have made it possible to provide hydrologic forecasts using physics-based
models for each of the 2.67 million reaches of the NHDPlus dataset. While these advances have
the potential to transform hydrologic forecasting, the new models are still under development
and require further evaluation and testing; for example, currently these new models do not
account for human influences on streamflow. To accurately measure the performance of these
models while eliminating the need to account for anthropogenic impact, we selected locations
that are part of the Hydro-Climate Data Network. Several measures of model performance of
simulated streamflow were automated into the Streamflow Prediction Tool in Tethys. For a given
forecast, major hydrograph components including peak flow, time of peak flow, and total runoff
volume are summarized for each reach. At USGS gaging locations, model performance is
summarized using several common goodness of fit statistical measures, including Nash-Sutcliffe
efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and percent bias, among others. This work
provides the foundation for evaluation of model skill as a function of lead time, generating
summary statistics for a given basin or region based on individual reach performance, and
extending this analysis to the broader national scale.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------A GENERAL ADAPTER FOR INTEGRATING A PHYSICS-BASED SNOWMELT
MODEL INTO OPERATIONAL STREAMFLOW FORECASTS

John Koudelka
Utah State University, Logan, Utah

Abstract:
In the Spring of 2010, flooding occurred on several rivers in the Bear and Weber basins of the
Upper Colorado River Basin during the spring runoff. Streamflow observations surpassed the
10% exceedence probabilities that were forecasted by the Community Hydrologic Prediction
System (CHPS) at the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC).
The CHPS system produces streamflow forecasts using the Sacramento Soil Moisture
Accounting Model (SAC-SMA). This system relies on the SNOW17 conceptual snowmelt model
to provide additional water from melting snow into SAC-SMA. This work attempted to
investigate the ability of a physics-based snowmelt model to improve streamflow forecasts
during this event. The year was characterized with lower than average snowpack and one that
persisted beyond the 30 year median and average. Preliminary investigations into the forecasting
of the event suggest that the current SNOW17 model did not model the rapid snowmelt that
occurred.
The Deltares Flood Early Warning System (FEWS), which provides the backbone of the CHPS
system, is an open data handling framework. Model integration is performed through
development of a General Adapter. This work describes the General Adapter that was designed
to integrate the physics-based Utah Energy Balance (UEB) snowmelt model into the CHPS
system for evaluating the performance of this model to produce better forecasts for the Spring
2010 runoff event.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------An Arc-Map Add-in for LISFLOOD-FP Model
Zhu Liu1, Hojun You2, Tong Wan3
1

Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

Dankook University, Yongin, South Korea
3
University of Alabama, Tusacloosa, Alabama
2

Abstract:
LISFLOOD-FP is a well performed hydraulic model that is used by European Flood Alarm Syste
m(EFAS) to simulate and predict flood. Currently, however, there exists few GUI for LISFLOO
D-FP model and therefore it is difficult for beginners to use it. In our project, a LISFLOOD-FP
Arc-Map add-in that include functions to run the diffusive solver and subgrid solver is developed
under the environment of C# and ArcObject. With this tool, LISFLOOD-FP users can get rid of t
he difficulties for preparing all the input files in GIS manually. Instead, a friendly LISFLOOD-F
P GUI is provided that can generate cross-sections based on certain spacing, creating profiles for
each cross-section, making the various input files needed by the solvers, running the model and v
iew the simulation results. All these processes are automated by using DEM and Stream line and
users just need to follow the steps in the tool and set proper parameters/configurations. Also, we t

ested our tools with several reaches in United Stated based on 100-year flood and it turns out that
the simulations results are pretty good compared with FEMA 100-year map by checking F statist
ics and running speed is rapid.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Assessment of Reservoir Management During Flood Events
Herman Dolder1, Tingting Zhao 2, Lian Zhu3
1

Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois
3
University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
2

Abstract:
The purpose of this project is to investigate the impacts of the reservoir management on the flood
inundation. There are three main parts in the project: 1) use data-driven approach to predict
reservoir inflows; 2) define a standard format to represent reservoir characteristics and operation
rules, and thus allow the development of reservoir modules into RAPID and other routing
models, and evaluate how the reservoir operation affect the river streamflow; 3) evaluate the
economic loss based on the river streamflow from part 2). Regression methods are applied to
predict reservoir inflows using soil moisture and precipitation data. Hazus-MH 2.2, WinEPIC V6
and an Input-Output based indirect economic consequence model were integrated to achieve a
comprehensive economic impact of flood. Details of economic loss with and without reservoir
operation are compared. The economic analysis part provides decision support for the reservoir
operation system in this project. The case study area in this project is the lower Colorado river
basin.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Cross Section Information Integration for Continental Scale Hydraulic Modelling
Chi Chi Choi1, Peng Shang2, Kyungmin Sung3, Solmon Vimal4, Cheng-Wei Yu5, Xing Zheng5
1

Iowa Flood Center, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa

University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
3
Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
4
UNESCO-IHE, Delft, Netherlands
5
University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas
2

Abstract:
River geometry information is essential to compute stage and flow using 1-D hydraulic models.
In hydraulic modelling, cross section is the most typical unit to organize river channel data. In
this project, methods for extracting cross section data from different sources have been
developed. The data sources were Flood Risk Information System (FRIS) HEC-RAS models and
high resolution LiDAR (1m) and detailed bathymetry composite DEM. Workflows for using
tools such as AutoRoute (USACE) and cross section automatic generation tool (choi et al., 2015)

were used and the workflows have been identified and demonstrated for the nation wide
contiguous river network - National Hydrography Dataset (NHD). The cross-sections extracted
and assembled for each NHD reach have been integrated into a unique database and linear
referenced onto National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) river network. Using cross section
information stored in the information system, relationship between hydraulic parameters (wet
area, wetted perimeter and cross section top width) and water depth have been developed. In
order to run a Very Large Scale Integrated (VLSI) network hydraulic model, namely 'Simulation
Program for River Networks (SPRNT)', approaches for representing cross-section based
hydraulic parameter functions and river channel geometry information at a river reach have been
tested. Taking flow data from North American Land Data Assimilation Systems (NLDAS) and
United States Geological Survey (USGS) gage observations and reach-scale river geometry data,
SPRNT model will be run for the Upper Alabama River Region for the period the region was
affected by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The simulation results will be compared with Federal
Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood inundation map and floodplain generated from
AutoRAPID.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Identify effective relationships using multiple techniques and resources for data
assimilation flood forecasting
Tim Petty1, Allison Tarbox2
1
2

University of Alaska at Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Abstract:
A suite of tiered application tool-sets (provided by NFIE RAPID/ECMWF/Tethys
CloudApp/ESRI ArcGIS/Microsoft Azure/AutoRoute) were applied to the Boise River Basin in
Idaho to assess input & output methodology for optimizing flood inundation mapping. Flood
boundaries were created for the 50, 100, 200, and 500 year floods through the use of AutoRoute,
USGS flow regressions, and DS412 data for Idaho, focusing on the Boise River Basin. Large
historical flows found using RAPID/ECMWF computations will be run in AutoRoute and
compared to the flood boundaries for the flow regressions. Research attempts to run time
correlation and multiple regression analysis on in-situ USGS streamgage data stations within a
designated watershed and compare & contrast river/stream watershed data using Microsoft
Azure Machine Learning tool sets to forecasting model sets. Identifing multiple technigues using
both AutoRoute watershed relationships that build on bothTethys and ArcGIS toolsets that will
utlize forecasting ECMWF precipiation forecasting for Azure streamgage prediction models.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Probabilistic Flood Inundation Delineation Using River Cross-Section Rating Curve
Library Approach
Caleb Buahin1, Cassandra Fagan2, Nikhil Sangwan3, Curtis Rae4

Utah State University, Logan Utah

Center for Research in Water Resources, University of Texas at Austin
3
Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
4
Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah
2

Abstract:
Many researchers have recommended explicit incorporation of uncertainty in flood inundation
mapping. A typical approach to accomplish this goal is to use an ensemble of models with
different conceptualizations, initial conditions, and parameterizations that capture the uncertainty
in the model parameter space and model structure. However, the computational expense
commonly associated with hydraulic models, prohibit their use for such evaluations, especially
when dealing with large spatial scales and for real time forecasting scenarios. To overcome this
challenge, we use a rating curve library approach for floodplain delineation. This approach
involves pre-computing a rating curve at various cross-sections along a river by running a
hydraulic model over a wide range of flows. River stage at each cross-section for a given flow
forecast can then be readily derived from the rating curve library, thereby providing a
computationally economical way to delineate local inundation areas. We apply this approach
using a forecast automation software tool we have developed to streamline the workflow. This
software extracts cross sections and ratings curves from an existing HEC-RAS model;
downloads real-time ensemble flow forecasts from the European Center for Medium range
Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model routed through the RAPID model; and dynamically maps
the inundated areas and their corresponding probability of flooding in immediate future. The
automation tool additionally exports the set of inundation depths and flooding probabilities
rasters to a Tethys web mapping application developed for emergency responders and local
residents.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Integrating the social dimension into flood management: A framework to understand
human response to probabilistic flood warnings and the value of volunteered geographic
information
Erhu Du1, Marc Girons Lopez2, Samuel Rivera1
1
2

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Illinois

Uppsala university, Sweden

Abstract:
Flood forecasting and warnings provide critical information needed to prevent the loss of human
lives and mitigate economic impacts during flood events. These actions are often approached
from technical perspectives while disregarding the social dimension. To improve current flood
management and emergency response a better understanding and integration of human behavior
and data is needed. This study presents two different frameworks aimed at (1) understanding the
influence of the heterogeneity of human response to flood warnings and (2) real time updating of
flood extent maps using volunteered geographic information (VGI), such as social media and

emergency calls. To understand the impact of flood warning information on human behavior, a
distributed human response model is coupled with a residential evacuation model to simulate the
residential evacuation process given probabilistic flood warnings in flood events. The value of
flood warning given different human decision forcing strategies is then evaluated using scenario
analysis approach. The real time update of the probabilistic flood extents using VGI data is done
by using a modified image segmentation algorithm that reflects the hydrologic and hydraulic
processes. The proposed method, named Hydro Region Growing Algorithm (HRGA), estimates
a probabilistic flood extend around a region of influence from a VGI data point. Thus, the
proposed approach allows the estimation of probabilistic flood extents in areas where no models
and/or gage data are operational. Preliminary results for both of these studies highlight the
importance of the social dimension in flood management and its added value to warning systems.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Generating risk map from probabilistic inundation map (real-time risk analysis)
Morteza T. Marvi
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois

Abstract:
There are several types of uncertainty inherent in flood delineation that has to be transferred
appropriately into flood risk analysis. Discharge in a reach is the first uncertain factor. In real and
near-real time, variety of discharge forecasted and estimated such as what HEPEX reports based
on ECMWF ensemble weather forecast. In long-term risk analysis, discharge of a specific return
period is uncertain due to lack of observation, measurement error, etc. Another set of uncertainty
comes from terrain and its feature. Terrain elevation, manning coefficient, expansion-induction
coefficient, and etc. are some examples of uncertain factors affecting hydraulic analysis and
flood delineation. All of these entail using probabilistic flood inundation map as the base of risk
analysis. In this project, I try to use ensemble flood inundation map for real/near-real flood risk
analysis. I hope this project catch the attention of first responders to better find the vulnerable
community during a flood event.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Observed historical flood classification for hydraulic model validation
Bradford Bates1, Keighobad Jafarzadegan2, Shakiba Morvarid3
1

University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
3
University of Texas at Dallas, Dallas, Texas
2

Abstract:
There are many models to identify the extent of flooding, however it seems that there is not any
appropriate source for calibration, evaluation and comparison of their performance. This project
focuses on the flood extent of historical floods by extracting the remote sensing images

corresponded to the flood events. An automated procedure is developed to determine historical

flood date ranges for a specified list of USGS gauging stations; after storing these date ranges,
Landsat images corresponding to these dates are downloaded. In addition to Landsat products,
Synthetic Aperture Radar is useful for water boundary delineation due to its high spatial
resolution and its ability to penetrate cloud cover. In this study, a combination of Sentinel-1
(SAR) and Landsat 8 images are classified to determine inundation extents, which may be used
to validate outputs from hydraulic models.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Development of tools for including information from the Iowa Flood Center to the National
Water Center model
Felipe Quintero
Iowa Flood Center, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa

Abstract:
The Iowa Flood Center (IFC) produce real-time discharge simulations for the State of Iowa over
a fine resolution network describing hillslopes with approximately 0.04 km2. Here is produced a
set of data structures that will allow the matching of that channel representation with the one
obtained with the NHDPlus network. This product is a key component for comparing simulations
of the models executed by the IFC with the results obtained through the National Water Center
(NWC) modeling system. In addition, this enables the assignation of NHDPlus unique channel
identifiers to about 200 water stage sensors maintained by the IFC, so these can be incorporated
within the NWC models.