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ACADEMIE BULGARE DES SCIENCES INSTITUT D'ETUDES BALKANIQUES ETUDES BALKANIQUE 1388 FEATURES OF THE FERTILITY DECLINE IN THE BALKAN COUNTRIES SINCE THE END OF XIX CENTURY Until recently all generalizations regarding the historical aspects of demographic development were based mainly on the experience of Western and Northern Europe. ‘This was reflected in the s. c. “demographic transition theory” — created as an attempt fo explain ina unifed, conceptual manner the overall trends in population development, In its classical version it describes the demographic history of the last centuries with a four stages schema: J. the first stage is characterized by high mortality matched by high fertility and low rates of population growth. It is associated with the pre-industrial societies; 2. om the second stage mortality deciines, but fertility mainteins its high level: leading to rapid incresse in population; 3. thirdly, fertility begins to decline rapidly, while the decrease of mortality tends fo slow down. The second and the third stages are associated with the industrial revolution and the transition from agrarian to industrial type of society; 4. the forth stage constitutes re-establishment of gradual rates of growth, with low levels of fertility and mortality. This stage is typical for the developed industrial countries. The theory implies the existence of some sort of homeos. tatic mechanisms in the demographic system (usually the emphasis is put on the role of stich social regulators as moral codes, !aws, community customs, religious doctrines, marriage habits, and family organization, ete.) which provide the equilibrium bet. ween population and environment (both natural, economic, and social) It has already been shown that the experience of some nations conforms neither to the sequence of stages, nor to the mechanisms of the transition outlined in the theory®, ‘We presume that the demographic development of the Tegion under study may also give some material in this respect. Having this in mind, the aim of the present paper is fo examine some features of the demographic development of the Ballon counteien shich deviate from the theoretical postulates. Special emphasis will be put on the fer” tility decline, Because of the fact that the quality of the statistical datafor the region under study is usually not very good, and that in some cases we were not able to obtain all the existing inforination, our analysis will be a bit biased toward Bulgaria’. Albania and Turkey will be omitted due to the total lack of data for these two countries. 1 Demegraphic transition theory originates in the 1990's and 1940's. Usually it is considered to bectested by Landry, A. Lardvolution démograpluaues Bart, 1934. However the theory did got find its systemic fori until Notes teinrte We Boptlation: The Lene Views tn Schultz, 1. W. (ed). Food for the World. Chicngn, 1945, 2697-For a mererel{ied and delatled disetssion ofthat theory's basie principles and postilatessee’ Brie sek nh het Bois octog waceaenn obteerao. levopi', coppeutincte, sarnagn 8 Syaysice” M, 1085, S Seseg: Les taeg ie, R. Ledossier des rans tion eemesraphtgue. ~ Curgpean Demo- graphic Information Bullein, 1, 1970-1971, No 4; Vat de Walle Es 3: Kaogel, Demo: aphie Transition and Fertility Decline: The European Case Paper prosenied io IUSSP Centers Tai T9BF"Seneyh ete : 2 Bulgaria is definitely the best statistically documented casein this region: Bases, this in formation isos! easily accessible. On the other han, one should keep tt mind that Tine countey is'n some aspects an cxireme example of the features "we will dscise 87 1. THE FACTS While the classical theory of the demographic transition interprets population changes as a response to relevant economic and social developments in a society passing from a mostly agrarian and rural to a mostly industrial and urban state, and as.a re- sult of the concomitant interaction among the demographic variables, the fertility de- cline in most of the countries in Southern and Eastern Europe started in a predominant- ly agrarian economy and rural social structure‘, The Balkan countries are an extreme example in this respect, with over 70 per cent of the male labour force employed in the agricultural sector* — Table 1, and about 3/4 of the population living in rural areas. ‘These proportions were quite stable over time and very little progress wes evident until World War Il, although fertility dropped substatitially over this period Within this line of reasoning it should be mentioned that some studies indicate an unusually low educational level of the population (another crucial variable accord. ing to the theory) in the region under study at the onset of fertility decline®. According to the official data at the turn of {he century more than 70 per cent of the population over 10 years of age was illiterate (incl. nearly 90 per cent of the females). If should be noted that these figures are hiding large differences in the literacy levels by age, Due to the fact that school enrolment increased very fast since the last decade of XIX and the beginning of XX centuries, sharp contrasts between the generations did occur. The share of illiterates among older peoples was very high, while younger generations Tabled Proportions of Male Labour Force in Agriculture and of Uliterates (Population Over 10 years of Age)— ‘Census Age (%) Titerstes Mae tad. | Urban mal force in” | pope z Agricull. | intone | tolat | femates vos | 1529 [soa | 50% Bulgaria 1500 ms Brak s 1329 me stor Gok SBS 1908 ms tla Sats Greece 1879 a ce vee {sor : erie chs eam eee ut 1923 sil 418 SBA SBS Yagostavia 100% aa Moe ee 1931 mr BS ASB BH Source : Annuaire statistique du Royaume de Bulgarle, 1910, 66-67; 1932, 4445; 1941, p. 28; Mitchel, B. R. European Historical Statistics, 1750-1975. 2nd ed, London, 1981; Trichopoulos, D, G. Papaevangelou. The Population of Greece. Paris, p. 42. ‘2 — the definitions of urban population are not sivictly comparable ; ‘ne — eitles of more than 1000 inhabitants ; owe Serbia, ‘Van de Walle, Bu J.Knodel, Op. cit, 47-56 + Greece is an exception with stighily over 80 percent t the male Labour force employed in rieulture 7 *Van de Walle, E., J. Knodel. Op. cit, 88 — Table 2 Tadices of Overall Fertility (IH), Marital Fertility (Ig), and Proportion Married (Im) in Some European intries i le is vero] 800 1850] 1960 | 70 | 550] 50 | 60] e380] 959] 00 Balgaa O31 gig — om on om — 07 om 078 bee sr 88 = Gm Oh BB = se te oe oti os = te (ae = a OF OH Hegel oss 03) = G6 ome OH = GR ome Set per es tse og 021 — a77 os 09 — 070 069 a6 Becagal Oa G3 om G6 OH OH om O18 Be Os Noe bi? $23 Ore fin ke os O8 os ow See song Gig bi Gr gt Sa eae O8 RB Oe Bes England & Wales Ireland 015 032 068 054 029 029 051 O48 030 O71 024 029 067 074 065 060 042 O31 085 O47 France O18 022 O48 038 0390 O31 O54 O57 O58 O87 Source + Coale, A. J. Factors Associated with the Development of Law Fectlity: an. Historical Summary. Vol. Il Beigiads,’ 1965, p. 209; Slampos, G.S, Valaoras. Long Term Feilty Trends in Greece,—tn 1UiSSH Conference, Voi, London, 1968, 60-605; and estimates by the author, I= fF, Hemgumin, Ime=Fmjts F, — standard age-spcte fentty sues; fy — age-sperie tery ta the abserved population; wi mstber of women in ith age ntl m)—-namber & maried omen in fh age interval == this set of indices was proposed by Coale, A. J. Op. ct. Its alm Isto ates, through telatvely simple standardzation procedre, he impact of change in uplisity and marta fet on te overt decline of frit. ‘The Ladex of mantal erty (ils the ratio Gf the cbservedcunber ‘of irs in given population to the number thal would Gotu? il women experlenced « stndard fr Hity sehedute Qs such a standacd is wd the fertty of manied Hutterite wowen during 921-1900 The Indices of marial fertity {I) and of the proportion marred (In) show. what, would ‘have. been’ the above io the stnerved populston dies rom tne santard only In maa Tei Tovey OF fe pectvely omy Inthe stractare of the population by marl statux, ‘ — for 1900 — Serbia; - ¥ +40 "the Eovopean paris of Russa for 1900. relatively well educated (Table 1), and hence—more apt to deviate from the tra- ional value system and to adopt modern reproductive motivation and behaviour. The *profile” of the demographic transition and especially of the fertility decline in the Balkan countries also deviates from the standard. The pre-transition levels of fertility were substantially higher compared fo the rest of Europe — eg. around 1900 in the countries under study the index of overall fertility (11)? was above 0.50 in Bul- garia, Romania and Yugoslavia, and slightly lower (0.44) in Greece (Table 2 and Fig. i). The crude birth rates’ were about 40-42 per thousand (Fig. 2). These figures were not matched in any other European country with the exception of Russia. Al- though fertility was paired by mortality levels that can be labeled as higher than mo- derate (eg. infant mortality was between 150 and 210 per_thousand® — only in about 10% of the European countries this indicator was higher, 50% were within this range, and about 40% of the countries had lower pre-transition infant mortality), the popu di 7 See the footnote al Table 2 for & discussion of this Indicator, & Liveborn per 1000_ population, ® The actual figures are usually lower, but they evidently bear the fingerprints of substantial underregistration — eg. in the process of life-table construction fer Bulgaria, voricue aulliers have EPH Etimates ot (0) (oth sexes, er 1000) ranging item 148.9 for the period 1960-1905 (T10 nc, FP. Cronanexa Buarapwa npes 1911 r. C., 1918) to 218.3 for 1692-1906 (Bowen, B. TaGanuaTa a cnruprnocrra s Bearaprin. €., 1920, 32.38) (see also Cuspruocrra na wacesennevo 3 Bearapna npes nepuona 1887-1940 r. 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