Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
OR
= (S C) (1 T) + TD
probability distribution
RF + (Rmk RF)
Real Options -> Timing, Abandonment [put], Expansion [call], Flexibility, Etc.
Overall NPV = Project NPV Option Cost + Option Value;
EPt / (1+WACC)T
*same as NPV!
VL = VU + (T x D);
rc = ro + D/E (ro-rd) (1-TC)
Cost of Financial Distress: (Bankruptcy, etc) discourages use of debt; Direct -> Legal Fees, admin fees,
bankruptcy fees; In Direct: forgone investment opportunities, losing trust, etc
Agency Costs: Cost associated with Conflicts of interest between Managers and Owners (Compensation,
Monitoring Costs, bonding costs)
Costs of Asymmetric Information: taking on debt signals confidence. Issuing equity signals that mgmt.
considers stock to be overvalued.
Pecking Order Theory: Internally Generated Equity (Retained Earnings), Debt, External Equity
Static Trade-off Theory: There is an Optimal Capital Structure; VL = VU + (T x D) (cost of fin. Distress)
Target Capital Structure Vs Optimal: Target changes depending on economic conditions; Equity value
fluctuates, debt ratings (S&P, Moodys).
International Differences:
Japan, Italy France
More debt use
Shorter Debt Maturity (Japan)
Emerging -> shorter and less debt
Legal Factors:
US, UK
Less Debt Use
Longer Debt Maturity
Developed -> Longer and more debt
weak legal system -> use more debt and shorter debt
Taxes:
Banking System:
debt
Liquid Capital Markets -> use longer debt; More Reliance on banks -> higher
Macro Economics:
Inflation higher -> less debt & shorter term; GDP: higher GDP growth -> longer
maturity debt
Dividend and Share Repurchase
Dividend Irrelevance: Too high? Use $ to buy back same stock; Too low? Sell some stock & keep $
Bird in Hand: Certain Dividends now better than future expected gains;
Signals: Dividend initiation could mean company is optimistic about sharing wealth with investors;
However, could signal a lack of profitable reinvestment opportunities;
Clientele Effect -> varying dividend preferences of different groups; Eg. High tax bracket investors (low
div) vs Low bracket (high div)
P = $ D (1-TD) / (1 TCG);
Investment Opportunities; Expected Volatility of Earnings (long-run); Financial Flexibility )(repurchases less sticky than div policy); Tax Considerations; Floatation Costs (issue new stock);
Contractual/Legal Obligations (Covenants, etc).
Split Rate -> two rates, one for retained and one for div
Imputation Tax System ->
Share Repurchases -> Company buys back shares of own common stock (Price signaling, offset dilution,
inc leverage, tax advantages, etc)
$ repurchases vs $ dividend -> same thing.
If EY > cost of debt, then new EPS will be higher ; EY < cost of debt -> New EPS lower
Less US companies pay Div than European; Develped ->trend is less; Share repurchases trend (US&EU)
Dividend Safety ->
FCFE
High P/E (growth firm) acquires low P/E (Mature) to create apparent synergies
= Improve EPS; Numerator = Sum [tot. earnings]; Denominator = less than sum [tot. shares outstanding]
Industry Life Cycle: Pioneer/Development (large capital needs, no profit); Rapid Growth (high profit
margins, little competition); Mature Growth (reduced margins); Stabilization Phase (growth matches
overall economy); Decline Phase;
Acquisition Types: Stock Purchase and Asset Purchase
Stock Purchase: acquirer gives target cash and or securities in exchange for shares of targets stock;
Needs majority consent, shareholders bear tax benefits/consequences; Must be entire A&L of company
Asset Purchase: Buys Targets Assets, payment made to FIRM not shareholders. Majority not reqd
Payment Method: Stock -> Target shareholders share in risk; valuation overpriced stock signals;
Bear Hug -> in hostile bid -> approaches targets board of directors directly with merger offer.
Tender offer -> acquirer offers to buy shares directly from shareholders (each accept/reject)
Proxy Battle -> seeks to control board by having shareholders approve new board
Defense Mechanisms:
Pre-Offer
Poison Pill -> gives current shareholders the right to purchase additional shares of stock @ extremely
attractive prices (e.g. Discount to market value); usually triggered when equity stake exceeds some
threshold level.
Flip-in Pill -> targets shareholders can buy target shares @ discount
Flip-Over Pill -> targets shareholders can by acquirer shares @ discount
Dead-hand -> in friendly merger = board has right to redeem pill prior to triggering event
Poison put (Bondholders) -> gives bondholders option to demand immediate repayment of bond.
Staggered Board, Restricting Voting Rights; Supermajority Voting; Golden Parachutes (lucrative $
payouts for Mgmt if they leave); etc
Post-Offer
Just-Say-No; Litigation; Greenmail (allows Target to buy back shares @ premium); Share-Repurchase;
Leveraged Re-Cap; Crown Jewel (target sells major asset to neutral 3rd party); Pac-Man Defense; White
Knight (Friendly 3rd Party bid-up price); White Squire(Friendly 3rd party buy portion of target)
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
MSi = Mkt Share ; N = # firms
Calculate HHI before and After Merger
Sum of Squared Mkt. Shares of firms in industry
Valuing Target Company: Discounted CFs; Comparable Company; Comparable Transaction ->
Discounted CFs:
6 Steps
= EBIT x (1-tax)
= [Net WC = CA-CL]
- Capital Expenditures
= FCF (Free Cash Flow)
#4) Discount the FCF to present value @ appropriate discount rate [WACC} -> adj WACC
FCFF = NI + NCC (non-cash charges) [Int X (1-Tax)] FCInv WC Inv
#5) Determine Terminal Value & Discount back to present -> 2 Ways:
Constant Growth:
Market Multiple:
#6) Add Discounted FCF for 1st Stage & Terminal Value to determine value of the Target
Using Comparables:
#1) Identify a set of Comparable Firms (same industry, size, capital structure)
#2) Calculate Various relative value measures: EV (Enterprise Value); EV to EBITDA; EV to sales; P/E; P/S;
P/B; etc.
#3) Calculate Descriptive statistics for relative value metrics and apply those measures to the target
firm: mean, median, range:
eg. Value = EPS x (P/E)
#4) Estimate Take Over Premium ->
DP = Deal Price per share;
TP = (DP-SP)/SP
Using Comparable Transaction Analysis: No need to apply TP. (1,2,3 of above but with transactions)
Compare Methods:
DCF: +ives: easy, customizable, fundamentals; -ives: difficult when CFs are ive, estimates subject to
error, discount rates ; etc
Comp. Company:
data easy to access; estimates directly from mkt; However: assumes mkt is
accurate (may not be), difficult to incorporate synergies;
Comp transaction:
No TP needed; BUT hard to find suitable comparables that are recent enough
Post-Merger Value of Acquirer: Combined Firm should be worth more than the sum of the 2 separate
parts: 1 + 1 = 3!
VAT = VA + VT + (S-C);
VA & VT are pre-merger values of target and acquirer; S= Synergies created; C =
cash paid to target shareholders
Gains to Target:
Gain T = TP = PT VT
Gain to Acquirer: