«| | sazensaren LAZARO CARDENAS LNG RECEIVING TERMINAL IMATED AVAILABILITY CALCULATION October 10", 2002 Rev 0 SOFREGAZsa 7 | LAZARO CARDENAS LNG 1 | RECEIVING TERMINAL | L - J BM METHODOLOGY ecco snd 32 OVERALL AVAILABILITY coor 33. INDIVIDUAL EQUIPMENT OVERALLUNPLANNED AVAILABILITY 8 ESFIMATED AVAILABILITY BOR 480,000 NMI SEN i sd 441 EQUIPMENT INVOLVED AND SPARE CAPACITY =~ ae 42. AVAILABILITY FOR 480,000 9308 SEND OUT oon. re) 43.1 AVAILABILITY DI IN-TANK PUMP 7 9 422 AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS. 9 422 _AVAICABILITY DI: VAPORISATION SYSTEM 0 AVAILABILITY D4: OTHER 0 OVERALL AVAILABILITY: 0 OVERALL LIABILITY 0 43° AVAILABILITY FOR 320000090311 SEND OUT ooo enced 33.4. AVAILABILITY Di: IN-TANK PUMPS. 0 432 AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS, i 433 AVAILABILITY D3: VAPORISATION SYSTEM i 434 AVAILABILITY D4: OTHER. u 435° OVERALL AVAILABILITY 1 436 OVERALL LIABILITY. ul 4A AVAILABILITY FOR 160,000 1301 SEND OUT soccecenncnncccnoned $3.1. AVAILABILITY DL:IN-TANK PUMPS, iy 442, AVAILABILITY D2: HIP PUMPS, 2 vagedaer rereLAZARO CARDENAS LN RECEIVING TERMINAL 443 AVALABILITY D3: VAPORISATIONSYSTEM 1 444° AVALABILITY D4: OTHER, : a S43 OVERALLAVAILABILITY 4460 OVERALLLIABILITY. 43 EXPECTED VALUE FOR GUARANTEED FIGURE AT 40,000 NMI Ds 09703, : ad . WAIL AB BOR 640,000 NMI SEND Ov 51 EQUIPMENT INVOLVED AND SPARE CAPACITY. S20 AVAILABILITY AT 640,000 NM 1. S21 AVAILABILITY DL: IN-TANK PUMPS... 522. AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS. 52}. AVAILABILITY D3: VAPORISATIONS 524 AVAILABILITY Di: OTHER. iu 525. OVERALL AVAILABILITY 526 AVAILABILITY AT 640,00 NMI cs 53. AVAILABILITY AT 80,000 N11 S34 AVAILABILITY DI: IN-TANK PUMPS 532 AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS, 533 AVAILABILITY D3: VAPORISATIONSYSIEM .. S34 AVAILABILITY Ds. OTHER 535 OVERALL AVAILABILITY S36 AVAILABILITY AT380.000NNH. Sa. AVAILABILITY AT 320000 XMM on : S41 AVAILABILITY DI:IN-TANK PUMPS. 582 AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS 343 AVAILABILITY D3: VAPORISATION SYSTEM Sa AVAILABILITY D1: OTHER. 545 OVERALL AVAILABILITY. S46 AVAILABILITY AT 20,000 NM 7 35. AVAILAAILITY AT 160,000 NMVH oc 531 AVAILABILITY DI: IN-TANK PUMPS 532. AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS, 553 AVAILABILITY D3. VAPORISATIONSYSIEME ' S54 AVAILABILITY D4: OTHER on 535 OVERALL AVAILABILITY 7 556 AVAILABILITY AT 160,000 NM 55 EXPECTED VALUE FOR GUARANTEED FIGURE AT 640000 NMI D = 094395 ESTIMATED AVAILABILITY | ‘CALCULATIONZARO CARDENAS LNG. RECEIVING TERMINAL ANNEX = EXCEL CALCU Date October, 2008 Reo ESTIMATED AVAILABILITY, = |The purpose of this note isto estimate the availabilty of the Lazaro Cardenas LNG receiving terminal based on two send out capacties 1 ~ 480,000 nngin 2 640,000 nna This availabilty is not the overall availabilty that normally include planned interruption and unplanned interruptions but only unplanned interruption Uncertainty ofthis kid of calculation isto obtain reliable figures for unplanned availablity of individual equipment Dae Detter, 2008 LV 4ae | tazanocanmenasine | tte The availabilty of @ system is equal to the multiplication of availabilty of elements in series composing the chain necessary for iis operation, ‘Availabilty of an element is based on the individual availablity, taking into ‘account the available capacity and spare, for example (3 x 50% capacity) Slo" a"-ay] Element availed Where NIST NUMBEs OF ComoNeNTs STALLED NIS THE MINIMUM NUMBER OF COMPONENTS IN OPERATION To COMPLY TE 100% PLOW RATT [AIS THE AVAILABILITY OF ONE COMPONENT (C.*15 THE NUMBER OF COMBINATIONS OF R COMPONENTS NOT AVAILABLE CHOSEN FOM N 1 M G FN 32. OVERALL AVAILABILITY ‘The send out chain is composed of several sections in series. The main ones involved inthe send out of vaporised LNG ate the following > A1~Intank LNG pumping Availabilty 01 > A2~ Secordary LNG pumping ‘Availabilty D2 > A3~LNG saporisation ‘Availabilty 03 > 4 Otherinterfacing sections & utliies [Nota]: Availabilty D& OVERALL SEND OUT AVAILABILITY D = D1 x02 D3 x D4 ESTIMATED AVAILABILITY ‘CALCULATION| LAZARO CARDENAS LNG Nota : Ail other units and equipment necessary forthe send out (control system, piping interconnecting, electrical power switchgears and distribution Instrument air, ..) 33. INDIVIDUAL EQUIPMENT OVERALL UNPLANNED AVAILABILITY, f [Rounded [Rounded [Number | Total wTeF | MTTR | in | Operating Sample | Hours In Tank Pump 6 100 90 54] 676810 ISend Gut Pump | 4300] 120] 120] 1 246 650 Iscv 2000) 70) 18) 198 546 lov 12) 100] 40] 703.379) a4=99.2%" 000 | Seawatereunp | | |__| 4990.6" _} Other units for send out 60990 % | 480 000 nmain (d6b=987 %""* | 640 000 nn3m ‘Source: "Improving LNG Importation Reviabilt Realistic assumption "Assumption : This last parameter that include all other involved system ( control system, ubities, elocrical, 18 very Important and the figures above seems fo be conservative, ‘Stephen Colin, etal ‘CALCULATION ratoESTIMATED AVAILABILITY FOR 480,00 4.1 EQUIPMENT INVOLVED AND SPARE CAPACITY The set up of equipment is summarised below. Capacity isin percentage of nominal capacity for 480,000 rma send out [Tipe of equipment [Number of | Total | Number | Capacity Componen number of | of spare | por ‘| Componen [equipmen| component necessary | t t LNG pumps Flee jee F; InTankpumes | 3 6 | 3 23% wepumps | 3 | 4 3%_| Vaporisaton system eee | ORV Bie lees ° 23% ‘Sea water | 4 1 3 23% pumps eoetele eciasrin i The cial tems are ORV 42 AVAILABILITY FOR 480,000 mih SEND OUT + 42.1 AVAILABILITY D1: IN-TANK PUMPS Based on the avaiablity of 3 in-tank LNG pumps among 6 Diz at +6 xdt(t-at)+ 15x a1%(1-61)4)+20x d1%(1-41)* 422. AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS Based cn the availabilly of 3 HP.LNG pumps among 4 be 2 + 4 x a2" x (1-42) estinaTE De Octber 2008arte rene 42.3. AVAILABILITY D3: VAPORISATION S) D3axD3b where DBAs THE AVAILABILITY OF THE Sea wareR SySTENE Dig iit AVAILABILITY OF THE VaponIsER SYSTEM 13a is based on the availabilty of 3 sea water pumps among 4 D3a = a5* + 4x d5%x(1-d5) Dab is based on the availabilty of 3 ORV vaporisers among 3 Dab = as? 424 AVAILABILITY D4: OTHER a= 063 425 OVERALL AVAILABILITY D=D1 02x 03a x03 x D4 42.6 OVERALL LIABILITY Dago = 0.96148 43 AVAILABILITY FOR320.000 mam SEND OUT of 431 AVAILABLATY DI N-TANK PUMPS Based en the availabilty of 2in-tank LNG pumps among 6 DI= dt + 6x g1°(t-d1) + 15 x d1°(1-d41)?) +20 x d1°1-41)9 +15 x at'qrat)* vegan | UY | Rev 0 | ge ae 22 SOrrEGAt l432. AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS Based on the availabilty of 2 HP LNG pumps among 4 02 = da! + 4 x2" (1-42) + 6 x 2x (1-€2)? 433. AVAILABILITY D3: VAPORISATION SYSTEM D3=Dtax 03d where [Da 1S THE AVAILARILITY oF THE SEA Wate SySTEN D385 THE AVAILABILITY OF THE VAPORISER SYSTEM 3a is based on the availabilty of 2 sea water pumps among 4 Daa = 5! + ax d5%«(1-05) + 6 x aS*x(1-45)? Dab is based on the avallabily of 2 ORV vaporisers among 3 Dab = c4 + 3 x d8x( 1-48) 434 AVAILABILITY D4: OTHER 4 = d6a 435. OVERALL AVAILABILITY D=D1x 02x D3ax Dap x D4 436. OVERALL LIABILITY 44 .98972 Dazo AVAILABILITY FOR 160,000 mi/h SEND OUT +| tazano canoerasine RECEIVING TERMINAL, aol 44.1 AVAILABILITY DI : IN-TANK PUMPS Based on the avallabilily of 1 in-tank LNG pumps among 6 br g°8 + 8x G1%(1-d1) + 15 x d1"(1-d1)?) 420 x 191-01) +15 x 8°%(1-43) "46 x d1(1-61)? 442 AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS Based on the avalibiliy of 1 HP LNG pumps among 4 0: 02° + 4 x dx (1-02) + 6x 62" x (1-62) 4x ax (1-62)? 4.43 AVAILABILITY DS: VAPORISATION SYSTEM D3 = 0% x D3» where 5a 8 TE AVATLARILTY OF THE SEA WATER SYSTEM (D}e 6 TE AVAILABILITY OFTHE VAPORISER SYSTEM 3a is based on the avaitabilty of 1 sea water pumps among 4 03a = 05 + 4x d5%K( 1-45) + 6 x dStx( 1-05) 4 x dx( 1-05)? 1D3b is based on the availabilly of 1 ORV vaporisers among 3 bab 1 6 Bx aMx( tea} 3 x dan 1-04)? 444 AVAILABILITY D4: OTHER 04 = d6a 445 OVERALL AVAILABILITY D=01 «2x D3ax 030 x D4 = ESTIMATED AVAILABILITY CALCULATION bate Octaner 2008 ee[| raereseercace 446. OVERALL LIABILITY Dye’ = 0.99000 48 EXPECTED VALUE FOR GUARANT D= (480 Dew (1 Dag) x (Dsspx 320) + (1- Dy) x (Duos 160 ))/ 480 D = 0.98703 9% A CALCULATION WZ Page 1322LAZARO CARDENAS LNG. RECEIVING TERMINAL ESTIMATED AVAILABILITY FOR 640,000 nm3/h SEND OUT 51 QUIPNENT INVOLVED AND SPARE CAPACITY ‘The set up of equipment is summarised below. Capacity isin gercentage of nominal capacity for 640,000 nma/ send out ‘Type of equipment [Number of | Total Number | Capacity Tareas menpored| sticks | owe rt Canin |cautenor ober imaccemry | ° iotinapul |e || | ae wept | gg tog Le cev > | o | om sev + | 4 0 | Som Seawater pumps al 4 0 33% ‘The critical items are HP pumps, Vaporizers and Sea water pumps. 82. AVAILABILITY AT 640,000 NM3/H. 5.21 AVAILABILITY DI :IN-TANK PUMPS Based cn the availabilly of 4in-tank LNG pumps among 6 Di= ai? +Gxdnraty+ 18 xar(1-01)* AVAILABILITY D2: HP_PUMPS Based on the availabilty of 4 HP LNG pumps among 4 b2=az ] smeateuenion. | 7523. AVAILABILITY D3 : VAPORISATION SYSTEM D3= Dia x D3b x D3c where 3a s Tie AVaLAnILETY oF THe Sea WATER SYSTEM [Da is Ti AVAILABILITY OFTHE ORV VAPORISER SYSTEM DSc Is AVAIEABILITY OF THE SCV VaPORISEx SYSTENE 13a is tased on the availabilty of 4 sea water pumps among 4 3a = a5" 1030 is tased on the avatiabilly of 3 ORV vaporisers among 3.and one SCV among 1 D3 = ot? 3c is based on the availabilty of 1 SCV among 4 se. 524 AVAILABILITY D4: OTHER 8 Dé = a6 525. OVERALL AVAILABILITY D=01«D2xD3axD3b x D3ex D4 5.26 AVAILABILITY AT 640,000 NMS/I Dewo = 0.79718 53. AVAILABILITY AT 480,000 NMA 53.1 AVAILABILITY DI : IN-TANK PUMPS Based cn the availabilty of 3 in-tank LNG pumps among 6 CALCULA Date Oster, 2008LAZARO CARDENAS ING Die att + 6x at%(t-dt)+ 15x A1%(1-81)%)+20 x 61%(1-a1)? AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS: Based cn the availabilty of 3 HP LNG pumps among 4 D2 = a2 + 4 x d2x (1-42) AVAILABILITY D3 : VAPORISATION SYSTEM D3 = Dia x D3b x D3¢ where 3a ST AVAMLAGILTY oF THE Sea WATER SYSTISE Da IST AVAILABILITY OF THE WAPORSSERS¥STEM 1D3a is based on the availabilty of 3 sea water pumps among 4 Daa = o5* + 4x d5%x(1-d5) 1D3b is tased on the availabilty of 3 vaporisers among 4 (3 ORV and ‘one SCY ) Dab = o' +4 x?x (1-4) with a (63 x 03 x 08 x d4)° AVAILABILITY D4: OTHER D4 =e OVERALL AVAILABILITY D=1«02xD3ax03bxD4 AVAILABILITY AT 480,000 NM3/HL Digo = 0.98068 SOFREGAZ. a ey : S40 AVAILABILITY AT-320,000 NMBVH SA. AVAILABILITY DI: IN-TANK PUMPS Based on the availabilty of 2 intank LNG pumps among 6 DI= ot + 6x dt%(t-d) 15 xat4(1-41)?) 120 x d1"(1-41)° +18 x or%(1-a1) 542 AVAILABILITY D2: HP PUMPS Based on the avaiiabilly of 2 HP LNG pumps among 4 D2= dz! + 4 xd2?x (1-42) + 6x d2? x (1-42)? S43 AVAILABILITY Dd: VAPORISATION SYSTEM 03 = Dia x Dab x D3e where Danis me AVAILABILITY OF HE Varo STEN 1a is tased on the avaiabillyof2 sea water pumps among 4 D3a = d5* + 4x d5°x(1-d5) + 6 x d5*x(1-d5)? 030 tase on he aalbilty of 2 vaporizer ORV or SCV vaponsers among: 4 xox (1-0) #6 xx (1-0)? {3 x43 x43 x4)" S44 AVAILABILITY D4: OTHER Dé = dé OVERALL AVAILABILITY D=01 xD2xD3ax 030 x D4 ESTIMATED AVAILABILITY SOFREGAZIAZARO CARDENAS LNG. 54.6. AVAILABILITY AT 320,000 NMI Dray = 0.98690 55. AVAILAB -Y AT 160,000 NMI. 5.5.1 AVAILABILITY DI : IN-TANK PUMPS Based onthe availably of 1 in-tank LNG pumps among 6 D 18 + 6x 4151-41) + 15 x 614(1-41)*) #20 x d2°(1-61) 2415 x AP(1-d1) 6 x d1(1-d1)? 552. AVAIL ILITY D2: HP PUMPS Based onthe availabilty of 1 HP LNG pumps among 4 b: 2! +4 x d2 x (1-42) # 6 x 62" x (1-62) 24 4 x 42x (1-42)? 55.3 AVAILABILITY D3 : VAPORISATION SYSTEM D3 = Dea x Dab xD3e where [DAIS THY AVAILAMILETY OF DHE Sea WATER SYSTIME D308 TH AVAILABILITY OF THE WAPORISER SYSTEM 1D3ais tased on the avaliabilty of | sea water pumps among 4 3a = dt + 4x d5(1-05) + 6 x d5%x( 1-45) 4 x d5x(1-45)° 1D3b is tased on the availablity of 1 vaporizer (ORV or SCV) among 4 Dab =o + 4 x dx (1-d) + 6x0" x (1-4) 4x dx (1-8)? with a (63 x a3 x 3 x 64) SOFREGAZ melRECEIVING TERMINAT S54 AVAILABILITY D4: OTHER 4 = a6 555. OVERALL AVAILABILITY Dix 02x D3axD3b x 04 556 AVAILABILITY AT 160,000 NMI Daze = 0.98690 SS EXPECTED VALUE FOR GUARANTEED FIGURE AT 640,000 NMVHL D = (640 Bun (1- Das) x (Dayo 480) + (1-Day) x (Day 320) + (1+ Day) Dywx 160 9) 640 D = 0.94895 [meee | WZ: sai [ seman | ia 7 7 CONCLUSION Based on the hereabove calculations the unplanned expected availablity is For the base load send out of 480,000 nmaih the expected availabilty is 98.7% to be compared with the 97.5% Fequired by REPSOL forthe frst year and 89% required by REPSOL for the second year (average required is 98.25%) - Thooratical margin is e less than 0.5% For the peak send out of 640,000 nm3ih the expected availability is 94.9% to be compared with the 94% required by REPSOL for the first year and 95% required by REPSOL for the second year (average Foquiredis. 94.5%) ~ Theoretical margin is less than 0.5%, Taking into account the uncertainty of the basic input data there is ‘some risk to accept a big amount of liquidated damages on the figures required by REPSOL,SOPREGAL