Population Change

What factors influence population

change?
Natural Change:
There will be a natural increase if births
exceed deaths
There will be a natural decrease if deaths
exceed births

 Migrational Change:
If there is a large flow of immigrants then
population increase.
If there is a large flow of emigrants then
population decrease.

 Fertility Measured by the Crude Birth

Rate (no. of births per 1000 people in a
year) or the General/ Total Fertility Rate (no.
of births for every 1000 females aged 15-44
in a year)
Mortality Measured by the Crude Death
Rate (no. of deaths per 1000 people in a
year) or age-specific death rate
No. of deaths of people over 60
No. of people over 60

 Infant Mortality Rate:

No. of infant deaths x 1000
No. of live births
Fertility rates and mortality rates, life
expectancy and infant mortality all have
global variations.

From the syllabus

Explain population trends and patterns in
births (Crude Birth Rate), natural increase
and mortality (Crude Death Rate, infant
and child mortality rates), fertility and life
expectancy in contrasting regions of the
world.
Analyse population pyramids.
Explain population momentum and its
impact on population projections.

The Population Formula

Natural Population Change = CBR CDR
Which gives us how many people?
World Population Clocks

http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop
http://math.berkeley.edu/~galen/popclk.html

Part 1
Trends and patterns in natural
population change

What key trend has

dominated natural
population change over
the last 50 years?

What spatial patterns are

associated with this trend?

Where did the explosion

happen?

www.sustainablescale.org

Which gives us this spatial

overview

"Out of every 100 persons added to the population in the coming

decade, 97 will live in developing countries." Hania Zlotnik, 2005

The Population Explosion

WE
REACHED
7 BILLION
IN 2011!

www.sustainablescale.org

Data Attack Population Growth Rates

2005 - 10
More Developed Regions 0.34%
(MEDCs)
Less developed regions 1.37% (LEDCs)
Least developed regions 2.30%
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.44%
Western Europe 0.24%

a lot of people with lots of needs and

even more greeds

Main points
Population growth exploded in mid 1900s
Growth has been uneven around the world
Malthusian theory?
Key terms Crude Birth Rate, Crude
Death Rate, Infant mortality, Child
mortality, Fertility, Life expectancy
Consolidate learning reading 9-14; Qs 1-4
and 9-10 pg 14.

Population structures
Pyramids

Pakistan
Under 16s = young
dependents

Over 65s = elderly

dependents
16-65 =
economically active

Key Features
Wide Base = high crude birth rate (LEDC) = (possibly) high infant
mortality
Narrow Base = low crude birth rate
Steep indents = high crude death rate at certain ages (depending
where the dents are)
Wide top = high life expectancy (check the ages)
Narrow top = low life expectancy (LEDC)
Check the difference between males and females
Check the comparison between dependants and economically
active (dependants ratio)
Always mention whether the pyramid is typical of an MEDC (fairly
steady) or LEDC
Remember global variations, and that some countries may have
wider tops than bases (ageing population)
Look for any major abnormalities (war, natural disasters, migration
etc.)

Describe and account for the population

structure of the pyramid.
Discuss the consequences which that
population structure will have in the
future for the economy of the country
and well-being of its citizens.

http://vimeo.com/7687560

The Dependency Ratio

%(Young dependents) + %(Elderly dependents
% economically active
X100
Tells you how many economically inactive people (0-15
and 65+) are dependent upon the economically active
population (16 to 64).
The equation above calculates a figure which shows the
number of economically inactive people that are reliant
on 100 economically active people. So a result such as
81.8 would mean that for every 100 economically active
people there are 81.8 economically inactive people.

Thus..
Population change varies over
time and through space
The Demographic Transition Model can
show change in a country over time or
differences between countries now.

The Demographic Transition Model

STAGE 5?? Where would the UK be? Pakistan?

Demographic Transition in
Sweden and Mexico

Births/Deaths per 1,000

1950

Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics 1750-1970 (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent
Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002):
tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World
Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326.
Lesson Plan: The Demographic Transition, Activity One

Where does the LEDC focused global population explosion fit into the DTM?
What trend can be identified within MEDCs in the later stages of the transition?

Conclusion
Recent patterns and trends in
natural population change are
characterized by very rapid
population growth in LEDCs and
populations beginning to decline
in MEDCs.
What are the reasons for these
trends?

Explaining Recent Population

Trends
Population
explosion in LEDCs

Population decline in
MEDCs

 Planet Geography page 13

What about the future trends?

Future Populations

UN World
Population
Projections
(Source www.wikipedia.org)

Key Feature - The Slowing of

Growth

Annual growth is currently 1.2% way

below the rates of 2.2% seen 40
years ago.
This is largely due to declines in
fertility