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semana

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

demanda
Error
Error
Pronstico
real
Pronstico Acmulado
712
766
730
746
736.00
10.00
10.00
798
747.33
50.67
60.67
684
758.00
-74.00
-13.33
780
742.67
37.33
24.00
676
754.00
-78.00
-54.00
790
713.33
76.67
22.67
644
748.67
-104.67
-82.00
900
703.33
196.67
114.67
620
778.00
-158.00
-43.33
820
721.33
98.67
55.33
688
780.00
-92.00
-36.67
940
709.33
230.67
194.00
660
816.00
-156.00
38.00
824
762.67
61.33
99.33
708
808.00
-100.00
-0.67
900
730.67
169.33
168.67
800
810.67
-10.67
158.00
802.67

/D/

10.00
50.67
74.00
37.33
78.00
76.67
104.67
196.67
158.00
98.67
92.00
230.67
156.00
61.33
100.00
169.33
10.67

/D/
Acmulado

10.00
60.67
134.67
172.00
250.00
326.67
431.33
628.00
786.00
884.67
976.67
3.25
1207.33
1363.33
2.25
1424.67
1.25
1524.67
1694.00
0.25
1704.670
-0.75
-1.75
-2.75
-3.75

MAD

10.00
30.33
44.89
43.00
50.00
54.44
61.62
78.50
87.33
88.47
88.79
100.61
104.87
101.76
101.64
105.88
2
100.27

Seal de
Rastreo

1.00 1.01992981
100
2.00
2567.11111
-0.30
5476
0.56
1393.77778
-1.08
6084
0.42
5877.77778
-1.33
10955.1111
1.46
38677.7778
-0.50
24964
0.63 Chart Title 9735.11111
-0.41
8464
1.93
53207.1111
0.36
24336
0.98
3761.77778
-0.01
10000
1.59
28673.7778
6
8
10
12
14
1.58
113.777778
13787.4771

16

18

16

18

semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

demanda
Error
Error
Pronstico
real
Pronstico Acmulado
712
766
730
746
798
738.50
59.50
59.50
684
760.00
-76.00
-16.50
780
739.50
40.50
24.00
676
752.00
-76.00
-52.00
790
734.50
55.50
3.50
644
732.50
-88.50
-85.00
900
722.50
177.50
92.50
620
752.50
-132.50
-40.00
820
738.50
81.50
41.50
688
746.00
-58.00
-16.50
940
757.00
183.00
166.50
660
767.00
-107.00
59.50
824
777.00
47.00
106.50
708
778.00
-70.00
36.50
900
783.00
117.00
153.50
800
773.00
27.00
180.50
808.00

/D/

59.50
76.00
40.50
76.00
55.50
88.50
177.50
132.50
81.50
58.00
183.00
107.00
47.00
70.00
117.00
27.00

/D/
Acmulado

59.50
135.50
176.00
252.00
307.50
396.00
573.50
706.00
787.50
845.50
1028.50
1135.50
1182.50
1252.50
1369.50
1396.50

MAD

59.50
67.75
58.67
63.00
61.50
66.00
81.93
88.25
87.50
84.55
93.50
94.63
90.96
89.46
91.30
87.28

Seal de
Rastreo

1.00 0.95624072
-0.24
0.41
-0.83
0.06
-1.29
1.13
-0.45
0.47
-0.20
1.78
0.63
1.17
0.41
1.68
2.07

3540.25
5776
1640.25
5776
3080.25
7832.25
31506.25
17556.25
6642.25
3364
33489
11449
2209
4900
13689
729
9573.67188

semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

demanda
Error
Error
Pronstico
real
Pronstico Acmulado
712
766
730
746
798
684
750.40
-66.40
-66.40
780
744.80
35.20
-31.20
676
747.60
-71.60
-102.80
790
736.80
53.20
-49.60
644
745.60
-101.60
-151.20
900
714.80
185.20
34.00
620
758.00
-138.00
-104.00
820
726.00
94.00
-10.00
688
754.80
-66.80
-76.80
940
734.40
205.60
128.80
660
793.60
-133.60
-4.80
824
745.60
78.40
73.60
708
786.40
-78.40
-4.80
900
764.00
136.00
131.20
800
806.40
-6.40
124.80
778.40

/D/

66.40
35.20
71.60
53.20
101.60
185.20
138.00
94.00
66.80
205.60
133.60
78.40
78.40
136.00
6.40

/D/
Acmulado

66.40
101.60
173.20
226.40
328.00
513.20
651.20
745.20
812.00
1017.60
1151.20
1229.60
1308.00
1444.00
1450.40

MAD

66.40
50.80
57.73
56.60
65.60
85.53
93.03
93.15
90.22
101.76
104.65
102.47
100.62
103.14
96.69

Seal de
Rastreo

-1.00 1.10888344
-0.61
-1.78
-0.88 1.10888344
-2.30
0.40
-1.12
-0.11
-0.85
1.27
-0.05
0.72
-0.05
1.27
1.29

error
cuadrado

4408.96
1239.04
5126.56
2830.24
10322.56
34299.04
19044
8836
4462.24
42271.36
17848.96
6146.56
6146.56
18496
40.96
12101.2693

181519.04

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

demanda
Pronstico(0.1)
real
180
175
168
176
159
175
175
173
190
173
205
175
180
178
182
178
179

Error
Error
Pronstico
Acmulado
5.00
5
-8.00
-3
-16.00
-19
2.00
-17
17.00
0
30.00
30
2.00
32
4.00
36

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

demanda
Pronstico(0.5)
real
180
175
168
178
159
173
175
166
190
170
205
180
180
193
182
186
184

Error
Error
Pronstico
Acmulado
5.00
5
-10.00
-5
-14.00
-19
9.00
-10
20.00
10
25.00
35
-13.00
22
-4.00
18

semana

semana

Error cuadrado medio

Error cuadrado medio

/D/
Acmulado
5.00
5.00
8.00
13.00
16.00
29.00
2.00
31.00
17.00
48.00
30.00
78.00
2.00
80.00
4.00
84.00
Error cuadrado medio
/D/

/D/
Acmulado
5.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
14.00
29.00
9.00
38.00
20.00
58.00
25.00
83.00
13.00
96.00
4.00
100.00
Error cuadrado medio
/D/

MAD
5.00
6.50
9.67
7.75
9.60
13.00
11.43
10.50

MAD
5.00
7.50
9.67
9.50
11.60
13.83
13.71
12.50

Seal de
Rastreo
1.00
-0.46
-1.97
-2.19
0.00
2.31
2.80
3.43

Error
cuadrado
25
64
256
4
289
900
4
16
194.75

Error porcentual
absoluto
2.78
4.76
10.06
1.14
8.95
14.63
1.11
2.20
5.70

Seal de
Rastreo
1.00
-0.67
-1.97
-1.05
0.86
2.53
1.60
1.44

Error
cuadrado
25
100
196
81
400
625
169
16
201.5

Error porcentual
absoluto
2.78
5.95
8.81
5.14
10.53
12.20
7.22
2.20
6.85

demanda
real

semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

12
17
20
19
24
21
31
28
36

Pronstico(0.2)
11
12.80
15.18
17.82
19.91
22.51
24.11
27.14
29.28
32.48

Tendencia(0.4)
2
1.92
2.10
2.32
2.23
2.38
2.07
2.45
2.32
2.68

Previsin
13
14.72
17.28
20.14
22.14
24.89
26.18
29.59
31.60
35.16

Error
Pronstico
-1.00
2.00
3.00
-1.00
2.00
-4.00
5.00
-2.00
4.00
-32.00

Error
Acmulado
-1
1
4
3
5
1
6
4
8
-24

/D/
1.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
4.00
5.00
2.00
4.00
32.00

/D/
Acmulado
1.00
3.00
6.00
7.00
9.00
13.00
18.00
20.00
24.00
56.00

MAD
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.75
1.80
2.17
2.57
2.50
2.67
5.60

Seal de
Rastreo
-1.00
0.67
2.00
1.71
2.78
0.46
2.33
1.60
3.00
-4.29

Error
cuadrado
1
4
9
1
4
16
25
4
16
1024

Error
porcentual
absoluto
8.33
11.76
15.00
5.26
8.33
19.05
16.13
7.14
11.11
#DIV/0!

Forecast Result for Inrresa


04-22-2013 Actual
Weeks
Data
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
CFE
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Trk.Signal
R-square

Forecast by Forecast
3-MA
Error
712
766
730
746
798
684
780
676
790
644
900
620
820
688
940
660
824
708
900
800

736
747.3333
758
742.6667
754
713.3333
748.6667
703.3333
778
721.3333
780
709.3333
816
762.6667
808
730.6667
810.6667
802.6667
158
100.2745
13787.48
13.1425
1.5757
0.1434
m=3

10
50.6667
-74
37.3333
-78
76.6667
-104.6667
196.6667
-158
98.6667
-92
230.6667
-156
61.3333
-100
169.3333
-10.6667

CFE

10
60.6667
-13.3333
24
-54
22.6667
-82
114.6667
-43.3333
55.3334
-36.6666
194.0001
38.0001
99.3334
-0.6666
168.6667
158

MAD

10
30.3333
44.8889
43
50
54.4444
61.6191
78.5
87.3333
88.4667
88.7879
100.6111
104.8718
101.7619
101.6444
105.875
100.2745

MSE

MAPE (%)

Tracking
Signal

R-square
3.25
2.25

100
1333.557
2714.371
2384.222
3124.178
3583.112
4636.255
8891.446
10677.29
10583.07
10390.43
13958.48
14756.75
13971.4
13706.64
14642.09
13787.48

1.3405
3.8448
6.1695
5.8237
6.9666
7.423
8.6843
10.3303
12.014
12.0159
12.1392
13.1725
13.9774
13.5107
13.5516
13.8805
13.1425

1
2
-0.297
0.5581
-1.08
0.4163
-1.3308
1.4607
-0.4962
0.6255
-0.413
1.9282
0.3623
0.9761
-0.0066
1.5931
1.5757

1.25

0.0463
0.053
0.0732
0.0944
0.0977
0.0897
0.0678
0.0689
0.0832
0.093
0.1045
0.1068
0.1263
0.1236
0.1434

0.25
-0.75
-1.75
-2.75
-3.75

9 10 11 12

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Column I

Forecast Result for Ripley


04-22-2013 Actual
Months
Data
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
CFE
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Trk.Signal
R-square

Forecast by Forecast
3-WMA
Error
502
575
515
529
570
499
546
517
532
502
507
537
520
480
571
479
518
575
565
499

532.1111
534.5555
544.1111
529.3333
535.6667
522.6667
530.1111
515.3333
510.8889
519.2222
522.7778
506
529.3333
509.8889
516.7778
534.6667
557.8889
537.8889
-5.333252
29.72548
1293.436
5.657928
-0.1794168
0.1833245
m=3
W(1)=2
W(2)=3
W(3)=4

-3.111084
35.44446
-45.11108
16.66669
-18.66669
9.333313
-28.11108
-8.333313
26.11111
0.777771
-42.77777
65
-50.33331
8.111115
58.22223
30.33331
-58.88892

CFE

-3.111084
32.33337
-12.77771
3.888977
-14.77771
-5.444397
-33.55548
-41.88879
-15.77768
-14.99991
-57.77768
7.222321
-43.11099
-34.99988
23.22235
53.55566
-5.333252

MAD

3.111084
19.27777
27.88888
25.08333
23.8
21.38889
22.3492
20.59721
21.20987
19.16666
21.31312
24.9537
26.90598
25.56349
27.74073
27.90277
29.72548

MSE

9.678843
632.9942
1100.333
894.6942
785.4444
669.0555
686.3665
609.2512
617.3112
555.6405
671.4857
967.6119
1088.06
1015.041
1173.36
1157.532
1293.436

MAPE (%)

0.5881066
3.403216
5.282243
4.724809
4.501963
4.044033
4.266288
3.938458
4.041119
3.651964
4.130153
4.734601
5.178709
4.920647
5.267644
5.273962
5.657928

Tracking
Signal

-1
1.677236
-0.4581651
0.1550423
-0.6209122
-0.2545433
-1.501418
-2.033712
-0.7438838
-0.7826042
-2.710897
0.2894289
-1.602283
-1.369136
0.837121
1.919367
-0.1794168

R-square

1.23022706
0.6254744
5.31E-02
4.77E-02
5.66E-02
8.74E-02
0.1128405
0.1802433
0.2102899
0.2245288
0.2036203
0.1622217
0.1455436
0.161764
0.1295276
0.1337738
0.1833245

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