A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.

The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

LIBERALS, TORIES FIGHTING IN KEY BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS

October 3, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls finds the Liberals
battling the Conservatives in key Ontario battlegrounds while they battle the NDP in two ridings
in the city of Toronto. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Polls have a maximum margin of error of
+/-3.88%, 19 times out of 20.
BRAMPTON EAST
Brampton East is shaping up to be one of the closest races in the GTA, said Quito Maggi,
President of Mainstreet Research. With the Liberals and Conservatives deadlocked at 31% each
among all voters, this will be decided by whoever has the best ground game and organization. The
NDP also have significant strength in this riding with 21% among all voters and are poised to play
spoilers in this riding. As we have noted repeatedly, the strength of the Conservative vote is
highest, with 81%, that may be a sign of who has the edge in this close battle.
CHATHAM-KENT-LEAMINGTON
Chatham-Kent-Leamington is a Conservative bastion and that looks likely to continue in 2015.
Although the Liberal candidate has a 6% lead over the 3rd place NDP among all voters, a look at
leaning voters shows a 1 point margin for the NDP. This narrows the lead to just 4% for the Liberals
among decided and leaning voters. With a relatively high percentage of voters in this riding still
undecided, at 21%, and still over 2 weeks to go, there still might be surprises here on election day.
DON VALLEY WEST
Don Valley West is a hotly contested rematch of the 2011 election. This time, it's incumbent MP
John Carmichael taking on Liberal contender Rob Oliphant, who was the MP until 2011. The Liberal
candidate holds a significant lead, among all voters, the Liberals lead by 11%, 41% to 30% for the
Conservatives with the NDP at just 11%. With the Undecided vote at just 15%, this race looks to be
out of reach for the incumbent as the lead increase to 12% among decided and leaning voters.
ORLEANS
Orleans is one of the most closely watched races in Canada, and of particular interest to
observers inside the Ottawa political scene. This is where Liberal star candidate and former
general, Andrew Leslie is up against Conservative incumbent Royal Galipeau and NDP contender,
Nancy Tremblay. With a high undecided rate of 22% and significant Green party support of 6%
among all voters, this close race is far from a foregone conclusion. Leslie leads by 6% among all
voters and 7% among decided and leaning voters. The NDP, at 19% of decided and leaning voters,
could again play spoilers in this riding.

SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST
In Scarborough Southwest, former police Chief Bill Blair is taking on NDP incumbent Dan Harris
for the Liberals. This is another closely watched contest, and rightfully so. With a 2% lead among
all voters, and just 1% among decided and leaning voters, Bill Blair and the Liberals are looking for
a major upset against a fading NDP. This is a race very much the opposite of many we have looked
at, with a strong Conservative campaign looking to play spoiler. This is a very polarized riding, with
just 12% being undecided, this is likely to be decided by ground game and organization on election
day.
UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE
University Rosedale is a new riding for the 2015 election, after the riding of Toronto Centre was
redistributed post by-election. Incumbent Chrystia Freeland, a star candidate for the Liberal party
trails the NDP star candidate Jennifer Hollett by 6%. The continued strength of the NDP in the
downtown core of Toronto may prove a difficult obstacle for the Liberal incumbent to overcome,
but with undecided votes leaning towards Freeland, it's too early to count out Freeland.
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels
of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently,
Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of riding residents by Smart IVR on September 28-29
2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.
SAMPLES & MARGINS OF ERROR
Brampton East: 684, +/- 3.73%, 19 times out of 20
Chatham Kent Leamington: 625, +/- 3.88%, 19 times out of 20
Don Valley West: 688, +/- 3.72%, 19 times out of 20
Orleans: 660, +/- 3.8%, 19 times out of 20
Scarborough Southwest: 654, +/- 3.83%, 19 times out of 20
University Rosedale: 644, +/- 3.84%, 19 times out of 20

A4

BRAMPTON EAST

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
Bajaj

Singh Kahlon

NAVAL BAJAJ (CPC)

HARBALJIT SINGH KAHLON (NDP)
RAJ GREWAL (LPC)
KYLE LACROIX (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
NAVAL BAJAJ (CPC)
HARBALJIT SINGH KAHLON (NDP)
RAJ GREWAL (LPC)
KYLE LACROIX (GPC)
UNDECIDED

5%

36%

24%

35%

13%

4%

31%

21%

31%

Decided & Leaning

Grewal

Lacroix

18-34
30%
17%
36%
4%
13%
93

Undecided

35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

27%
37% 30% 37% 25%
22%
21% 23% 17% 24%
29% 30% 32% 27% 36%
5%
3%
3% 6%
2%
17%
9%
12% 13%
13%
185
172
234 300 384

Certain
32%
22%
32%
3%
11%

Likely
25%
14%
38%
3%
21%

Might
18%
10%
15%
0%
58%

Unlikely
26%
8%
10%
36%
21%

A5

BRAMPTON EAST

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

6%
6%
5%
3%

80%

Bajaj

Singh Kahlon

Grewal

Lacroix

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
81%
16%
3%

NDP
52%
44%
5%

LPC
62%
32%
5%

A6

CHATHAM-KENT--LEAMINGTON

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
Van Kesteren

DAVE VAN KESTEREN (CPC)

TONY WALSH (NDP)
KATIE OMSTEAD (LPC)
MARK VERCOUTEREN (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
DAVE VAN KESTEREN (CPC)
TONY WALSH (NDP)
KATIE OMSTEAD (LPC)
MARK VERCOUTEREN (GPC)
UNDECIDED

Walsh

4%

27%

23%

45%

21%

3%

23%

17%

36%

Decided & Leaning

Omstead

Vercouteren

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

29% 39%
37% 43% 33% 39%
22% 18%
16%
8% 20% 13%
17% 22%
26% 26% 23% 23%
5%
4%
3%
0% 5%
2%
28% 17%
18% 23% 20% 23%
54
102
228
241 259 366
Certain
41%
18%
20%
4%
17%

Likely
17%
4%
30%
4%
46%

Might
15%
6%
39%
1%
40%

Unlikely
26%
27%
21%
3%
23%

A7

CHATHAM-KENT--LEAMINGTON

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

17%

19%
57%

6%
1%

Van Kesteren

Walsh

Omstead

Vercouteren

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
85%
11%
4%

NDP
57%
26%
17%

LPC
52%
32%
16%

A7

DON VALLEY WEST

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
Carmichael

JOHN CARMICHAEL (CPC)

SYEDA RIAZ (NDP)
ROB OLIPHANT (LPC)
NATALIE HUNT (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
JOHN CARMICHAEL (CPC)
SYEDA RIAZ (NDP)
ROB OLIPHANT (LPC)
NATALIE HUNT (GPC)
UNDECIDED

4%

47%

13%

35%

15%

2%

41%

11%

30%

Decided & Leaning

Riaz

Oliphant

Hunt

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

23% 37%
29% 34% 30% 31%
15%
13%
7%
10% 13% 10%
52% 27%
45% 40% 41% 41%
0%
5%
2%
2% 3%
1%
11%
18%
17% 14% 13%
17%
117
156
168
247 300 388
Certain
31%
11%
42%
2%
15%

Likely
29%
27%
28%
6%
11%

Might
32%
0%
60%
0%
8%

Unlikely
23%
8%
43%
0%
26%

A8

DON VALLEY WEST

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

8%
5%

7%

9%

70%

Carmichael

Riaz

Oliphant

Hunt

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
70%
29%
1%

NDP
63%
18%
19%

LPC
64%
27%
9%

A9

ORLEANS

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
Galipeau

ROYAL GALIPEAU (CPC)

NANCY TREMBLAY (NDP)
ANDREW LESLIE (LPC)
RAPHAEL MORIN (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

ROYAL GALIPEAU (CPC)

NANCY TREMBLAY (NDP)
ANDREW LESLIE (LPC)
RAPHAEL MORIN (GPC)
UNDECIDED

Tremblay

8%

40%

19%

33%

22%

6%

32%

14%

26%

Decided & Leaning

Leslie

Morin

18-34
20%
12%
39%
7%
22%
131

Undecided

35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

26%
29% 33% 24% 28%
16%
15% 14% 16%
13%
25% 30% 34% 32% 32%
6%
7%
3% 7%
6%
27%
19% 15% 22% 22%
129
196 204 298 362

Certain
28%
16%
33%
6%
18%

Likely
36%
7%
31%
2%
25%

Might
14%
7%
35%
32%
44%

Unlikely
2%
0%
5%
0%
61%

A10

ORLEANS

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

10%

9%

14%

64%
3%

Galipeau

Tremblay

Leslie

Morin

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
85%
7%
8%

NDP
62%
23%
14%

LPC
68%
26%
5%

A12

SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
Nallaratnam

ROSHAN NALLARATNAM (CPC)

DAN HARRIS (NDP)
BILL BLAIR (LPC)
TOMMY TAYLOR (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
ROSHAN NALLARATNAM (CPC)
DAN HARRIS (NDP)
BILL BLAIR (LPC)
TOMMY TAYLOR (GPC)
UNDECIDED

3%

40%

37%

21%

12%

2%

35%

33%

18%

Decided & Leaning

Harris

Blair

Taylor

18-34
13%
37%
34%
15%
1%
105

Undecided

35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

23%
18% 16% 18%
18%
35% 30% 31% 39% 28%
26%
38% 41% 30% 39%
13%
11%
9% 11%
13%
4%
2%
2% 2%
2%
141
202 206 298 356

Certain
17%
34%
34%
13%
3%

Likely
26%
30%
37%
6%
1%

Might
16%
24%
55%
6%
0%

Unlikely
16%
34%
39%
11%
0%

A13

SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

27%

59%
9%

0%

Nallaratnam

Harris

Blair

Taylor

4%

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
72%
18%
10%

NDP
49%
39%
11%

LPC
63%
24%
14%

A14

UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

40
35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
Jivraj

KARIM JIVRAJ (CPC)

JENNIFER HOLLETT (NDP)
CHRYSTIA FREELAND (LPC)
NICK WRIGHT (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
KARIM JIVRAJ (CPC)
JENNIFER HOLLETT (NDP)
CHRYSTIA FREELAND (LPC)
NICK WRIGHT (GPC)
UNDECIDED

Hollett

3%

39%

43%

15%

18%

2%

31%

37%

12%

Decided & Leaning

Freeland

Wright

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

20%
5%
13%
8% 12%
12%
22% 40% 44% 45% 38% 37%
38% 31%
24% 32% 30% 33%
5%
1%
2%
2% 3%
1%
20% 19%
18% 13% 18%
18%
85
131
202 226 294 350
Certain
8%
43%
32%
3%
16%

Likely
46%
21%
21%
2%
9%

Might
21%
16%
42%
0%
19%

Unlikely
4%
23%
19%
0%
54%

A15

UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

27%

59%
9%

0%

Jivraj

Hollett

Freeland

Wright

4%

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
83%
15%
2%

NDP
55%
41%
5%

LPC
63%
30%
6%

A16

BRAMPTON EAST SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Naval Bajaj of the Conservative Party
Harbaljit Singh Kahlon of the NDP
Raj Grewal of the Liberal Party
Kyle Lacroix of the Green Party
Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Naval Bajaj of the Conservative Party
Harbaljit Singh Kahlon of the NDP
Raj Grewal of the Liberal Party
Kyle Lacroix of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know

A17

CHATHAM-KENT--LEAMINGTON SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Dave van Kesteren of the Conservative Party
Tony Walsh of the NDP
Katie Omstead of the Liberal Party
Mark Vercouteren of the Green Party
Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Dave van Kesteren of the Conservative Party
Tony Walsh of the NDP
Katie Omstead of the Liberal Party
Mark Vercouteren of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know

A18

DON VALLEY WEST SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
John Carmichael of the Conservative Party
Syeda Riaz of the NDP
Rob Oliphant of the Liberal Party
Natalie Hunt of the Green Party
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
John Carmichael of the Conservative Party
Syeda Riaz of the NDP
Rob Oliphant of the Liberal Party
Natalie Hunt of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know

A19

ORLEANS SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Royal Galipeau of the Conservative Party
Nancy Tremblay of the NDP
Andrew Leslie of the Liberal Party
Raphael Morin of the Green Party
Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Royal Galipeau of the Conservative Party
Nancy Tremblay of the NDP
Andrew Leslie of the Liberal Party
Raphael Morin of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know

A20

SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Roshan Nallaratnam of the Conservative Party
Dan Harris of the NDP
Bill Blair of the Liberal Party
Tommy Taylor of the Green Party
Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Roshan Nallaratnam of the Conservative Party
Dan Harris of the NDP
Bill Blair of the Liberal Party
Tommy Taylor of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know

A21

UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Karim Jivraj of the Conservative Party
Jennifer Hollett of the NDP
Chrystia Freeland of the Liberal Party
Nick Wright of the Green Party
Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Karim Jivraj of the Conservative Party
Jennifer Hollett of the NDP
Chrystia Freeland of the Liberal Party
Nick Wright of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.

2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved