Week

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45

46
47
48
49
50
51

-A positive tracking signal (TS) implies th

- Because the TS is not close to 0, the fo
-No trend is observed and also no season
Smoothing
-The forecast for the first week is assume
- The value of smoothing constant is tak
-For week 2, it is assumed that the dema

1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 2

100
0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 2

Orders(Actual)
Forecast Difference
Mod of Difference Square of Diff.
220
220
220
48400
100
220
-120
120
14400
190
160
30
30
900
240
175
65
65
4225
480
208
273
273
74256
470
344
126
126
15939
320
407
-87
87
7547
510
363
147
147
21481
330
437
-107
107
11389
60
383
-323
323
104561
290
222
68
68
4668
850
256
594
594
353026
160
553
-393
393
154386
90
356
-266
266
71001
30
223
-193
193
37338
180
127
53
53
2850
780
153
627
627
392743
100
467
-367
367
134435
430
283
147
147
21513
80
357
-277
277
76543
150
218
-68
68
4669
190
184
6
6
34
520
187
333
333
110834
180
354
-174
174
30117
140
267
-127
127
16071
300
203
97
97
9334
290
252
38
38
1467
650
271
379
379
143757
180
460
-280
280
78637
80
320
-240
240
57702
60
200
-140
140
19630
600
130
470
470
220850
350
365
-15
15
226
160
358
-198
198
39011
110
259
-149
149
22129
320
184
136
136
18393
890
252
638
638
406803
820
571
249
249
61954
210
696
-486
486
235756
305
453
-148
148
21837
280
379
-99
99
9779
350
329
21
21
423
400
340
60
60
3633
150
370
-220
220
48339
300
260
40
40
1606

120
380
20
400
250
280

280
200
290
155
277
264

-160
180
-270
245
-27
16
324

160
180
270
245
27
16
10190
200

MAD
MSE

25589
32406
72895
60027
756
264
3306529
64833.908385467
MAPE
TS

ve tracking signal (TS) implies that the demand is gher than the forecasts
se the TS is not close to 0, the forecasting method is flawed.
d is observed and also no seasonality is observed. So the forecasting method used is Exponential
ng
ecast for the first week is assumed to be equal to the demand
lue of smoothing constant is taken to be 0.5
ek 2, it is assumed that the demand in week 2 will be equal to the demand in week 1.

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

1.00 alpha
1.20
0.16
0.27
0.57
0.27
0.27
0.29
0.32
5.39
0.24
0.70
2.46
2.96
6.44
0.30
0.80
3.67
0.34
3.46
0.46
0.03
0.64
0.96
0.91
0.32
0.13
0.58
1.56
3.00
2.34
0.78
0.04
1.23
1.35
0.42
0.72
0.30
2.31
0.48
0.35
0.06
0.15
1.47
0.13

0.5

1.33
0.47
13.50
0.61
0.11
0.06
6793%

133%
1.6203463794

d is Exponential

k 1.

2 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51

Column H
Column I

2 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51