August16,1964

VisittotheWorld'sFairof2014
ByISAACASIMOV

heNewYorkWorld'sFairof1964isdedicatedto"PeaceThroughUnderstanding."Itsglimpses
oftheworldoftomorrowruleoutthermonuclearwarfare.Andwhynot?Ifathermonuclearwar
takesplace,thefuturewillnotbeworthdiscussing.Soletthemissilesslumbereternallyontheirpads
andletusobservewhatmaycomeinthenonatomizedworldofthefuture.
Whatistocome,throughthefair'seyesatleast,iswonderful.Thedirectioninwhichmanistraveling
isviewedwithbuoyanthope,nowheremoresothanattheGeneralElectricpavilion.Therethe
audiencewhirlsthroughfourscenes,eachpopulatedbycheerful,lifelikedummiesthatmoveandtalk
withafacilitythat,insideofaminuteandahalf,convincesyoutheyarealive.
Thescenes,setinorabout1900,1920,1940and1960,showtheadvancesofelectricalappliancesand
thechangestheyarebringingtoliving.Ienjoyedithugelyandonlyregrettedthattheyhadnotcarried
thescenesintothefuture.Whatwilllifebelike,say,in2014A.D.,50yearsfromnow?Whatwillthe
World'sFairof2014belike?
Idon'tknow,butIcanguess.
Onethoughtthatoccurstomeisthatmenwillcontinuetowithdrawfromnatureinordertocreatean
environmentthatwillsuitthembetter.By2014,electroluminescentpanelswillbeincommonuse.
Ceilingsandwallswillglowsoftly,andinavarietyofcolorsthatwillchangeatthetouchofapush
button.
Windowsneedbenomorethananarchaictouch,andevenwhenpresentwillbepolarizedtoblock
outtheharshsunlight.Thedegreeofopacityoftheglassmayevenbemadetoalterautomaticallyin
accordancewiththeintensityofthelightfallinguponit.
Thereisanundergroundhouseatthefairwhichisasignofthefuture.ifitswindowsarenot
polarized,theycanneverthelessalterthe"scenery"bychangesinlighting.Suburbanhouses
underground,witheasilycontrolledtemperature,freefromthevicissitudesofweather,withair
cleanedandlightcontrolled,shouldbefairlycommon.AttheNewYorkWorld'sFairof2014,
GeneralMotors'"Futurama"maywelldisplayvistasofundergroundcitiescompletewithlightforced
vegetablegardens.Thesurface,G.M.willargue,willbegivenovertolargescaleagriculture,grazing
andparklands,withlessspacewastedonactualhumanoccupancy.
Gadgetrywillcontinuetorelievemankindoftediousjobs.Kitchenunitswillbedevisedthatwill
prepare"automeals,"heatingwaterandconvertingittocoffeetoastingbreadfrying,poachingor
scramblingeggs,grillingbacon,andsoon.Breakfastswillbe"ordered"thenightbeforetobeready
byaspecifiedhourthenextmorning.Completelunchesanddinners,withthefoodsemiprepared,will
bestoredinthefreezeruntilreadyforprocessing.Isuspect,though,thatevenin2014itwillstillbe
advisabletohaveasmallcornerinthekitchenunitwherethemoreindividualmealscanbeprepared
byhand,especiallywhencompanyiscoming.
Robotswillneitherbecommonnorverygoodin2014,buttheywillbeinexistence.TheI.B.M.
exhibitatthepresentfairhasnorobotsbutitisdedicatedtocomputers,whichareshowninalltheir
amazingcomplexity,notablyinthetaskoftranslatingRussianintoEnglish.Ifmachinesarethatsmart
today,whatmaynotbeintheworks50yearshence?Itwillbesuchcomputers,muchminiaturized,
thatwillserveasthe"brains"ofrobots.Infact,theI.B.M.buildingatthe2014World'sFairmay

have,asoneofitsprimeexhibits,arobothousemaid*large,clumsy,slowmovingbutcapableof
generalpickingup,arranging,cleaningandmanipulationofvariousappliances.Itwillundoubtedly
amusethefairgoerstoscatterdebrisoverthefloorinordertoseetherobotlumberinglyremoveitand
classifyitinto"throwaway"and"setaside."(Robotsforgardeningworkwillalsohavemadetheir
appearance.)
GeneralElectricatthe2014World'sFairwillbeshowing3Dmoviesofits"RobotoftheFuture,"
neatandstreamlined,itscleaningappliancesbuiltinandperformingalltasksbriskly.(Therewillbea
threehourwaitinlinetoseethefilm,forsomethingsneverchange.)
Theappliancesof2014willhavenoelectriccords,ofcourse,fortheywillbepoweredbylonglived
batteriesrunningonradioisotopes.Theisotopeswillnotbeexpensivefortheywillbebyproductsof
thefissionpowerplantswhich,by2014,willbesupplyingwelloverhalfthepowerneedsof
humanity.Butoncetheisotypebatteriesareuseduptheywillbedisposedofonlythroughauthorized
agentsofthemanufacturer.
Andexperimentalfusionpowerplantortwowillalreadyexistin2014.(Eventoday,asmallbut
genuinefusionexplosionisdemonstratedatfrequentintervalsintheG.E.exhibitatthe1964fair.)
Largesolarpowerstationswillalsobeinoperationinanumberofdesertandsemidesertareas
Arizona,theNegev,Kazakhstan.Inthemorecrowded,butcloudyandsmoggyareas,solarpowerwill
belesspractical.Anexhibitatthe2014fairwillshowmodelsofpowerstationsinspace,collecting
sunlightbymeansofhugeparabolicfocusingdevicesandradiatingtheenergythuscollecteddownto
earth.
Theworldof50yearshencewillhaveshrunkfurther.Atthe1964fair,theG.M.exhibitdepicts,
amongotherthings,"roadbuildingfactories"inthetropicsand,closertohome,crowdedhighways
alongwhichlongbusesmoveonspecialcentrallanes.Thereiseverylikelihoodthathighwaysatleast
inthemoreadvancedsectionsoftheworld*willhavepassedtheirpeakin2014therewillbe
increasingemphasisontransportationthatmakestheleastpossiblecontactwiththesurface.There
willbeaircraft,ofcourse,butevengroundtravelwillincreasinglytaketotheair*afootortwooffthe
ground.Visitorstothe1964faircantravelthereinan"aquafoil,"whichliftsitselfonfourstiltsand
skimsoverthewaterwithaminimumoffriction.Thisissurelyastopgap.By2014thefourstiltswill
havebeenreplacedbyfourjetsofcompressedairsothatthevehiclewillmakenocontactwitheither
liquidorsolidsurfaces.
Jetsofcompressedairwillalsoliftlandvehiclesoffthehighways,which,amongotherthings,will
minimizepavingproblems.Smoothearthorlevellawnswilldoaswellaspavements.Bridgeswill
alsobeoflessimportance,sincecarswillbecapableofcrossingwaterontheirjets,thoughlocal
ordinanceswilldiscouragethepractice.
Mucheffortwillbeputintothedesigningofvehicleswith"Robotbrains"*vehiclesthatcanbesetfor
particulardestinationsandthatwillthenproceedtherewithoutinterferencebytheslowreflexesofa
humandriver.Isuspectoneofthemajorattractionsofthe2014fairwillberidesonsmallroboticized
carswhichwillmaneuverincrowdsatthetwofootlevel,neatlyandautomaticallyavoidingeach
other.
Forshortrangetravel,movingsidewalks(withbenchesoneitherside,standingroominthecenter)
willbemakingtheirappearanceindowntownsections.Theywillberaisedabovethetraffic.Traffic
willcontinue(onseverallevelsinsomeplaces)onlybecauseallparkingwillbeoffstreetandbecause
atleast80percentoftruckdeliverieswillbetocertainfixedcentersatthecity'srim.Compressedair
tubeswillcarrygoodsandmaterialsoverlocalstretches,andtheswitchingdevicesthatwillplace
specificshipmentsinspecificdestinationswillbeoneofthecity'smarvels.
Communicationswillbecomesightsoundandyouwillseeaswellashearthepersonyoutelephone.
Thescreencanbeusednotonlytoseethepeopleyoucallbutalsoforstudyingdocumentsand

photographsandreadingpassagesfrombooks.Synchronoussatellites,hoveringinspacewillmakeit
possibleforyoutodirectdialanyspotonearth,includingtheweatherstationsinAntarctica(shown
inchillsplendoraspartofthe'64GeneralMotorsexhibit).
Forthatmatter,youwillbeabletoreachsomeoneatthemooncolonies,concerningwhichGeneral
Motorsputsonadisplayofimpressivevehicles(inmodelform)withlargesofttires*intendedto
negotiatetheuneventerrainthatmayexistonournaturalsatellite.
Anynumberofsimultaneousconversationsbetweenearthandmooncanbehandledbymodulated
laserbeams,whichareeasytomanipulateinspace.Onearth,however,laserbeamswillhavetobe
ledthroughplasticpipes,toavoidmaterialandatmosphericinterference.Engineerswillstillbe
playingwiththatproblemin2014.
Conversationswiththemoonwillbeatrifleuncomfortable,buttheway,inthat2.5secondsmust
elapsebetweenstatementandanswer(ittakeslightthatlongtomaketheroundtrip).Similar
conversationswithMarswillexperiencea3.5minutedelayevenwhenMarsisatitsclosest.
However,by2014,onlyunmannedshipswillhavelandedonMars,thoughamannedexpeditionwill
beintheworksandinthe2014FuturamawillshowamodelofanelaborateMartiancolony.
Asfortelevision,wallscreenswillhavereplacedtheordinarysetbuttransparentcubeswillbe
makingtheirappearanceinwhichthreedimensionalviewingwillbepossible.Infact,onepopular
exhibitatthe2014World'sFairwillbesucha3DTV,builtlifesize,inwhichballetperformances
willbeseen.Thecubewillslowlyrevolveforviewingfromallangles.
Onecangoonindefinitelyinthishappyextrapolation,butallisnotrosy.
AsIstoodinlinewaitingtogetintotheGeneralElectricexhibitatthe1964fair,Ifoundmyself
staringatEquitableLife'sgrimsignblinkingoutthepopulationoftheUnitedStates,withthenumber
(over191,000,000)increasingby1every11seconds.DuringtheintervalwhichIspentinsidethe
G.E.pavilion,theAmericanpopulationhadincreasedbynearly300andtheworld'spopulationby
6,000.
In2014,thereiseverylikelihoodthattheworldpopulationwillbe6,500,000,000andthepopulation
oftheUnitedStateswillbe350,000,000.BostontoWashington,themostcrowdedareaofitssizeon
theearth,willhavebecomeasinglecitywithapopulationofover40,000,000.
Populationpressurewillforceincreasingpenetrationofdesertandpolarareas.Mostsurprisingand,in
someways,heartening,2014willseeagoodbeginningmadeinthecolonizationofthecontinental
shelves.Underwaterhousingwillhaveitsattractionstothosewholikewatersports,andwill
undoubtedlyencouragethemoreefficientexploitationofoceanresources,bothfoodandmineral.
GeneralMotorsshows,inits1964exhibit,themodelofanunderwaterhotelofwhatmightbecalled
mouthwateringluxury.The2014World'sFairwillhaveexhibitsshowingcitiesinthedeepseawith
bathyscaphelinerscarryingmenandsuppliesacrossandintotheabyss.
Ordinaryagriculturewillkeepupwithgreatdifficultyandtherewillbe"farms"turningtothemore
efficientmicroorganisms.Processedyeastandalgaeproductswillbeavailableinavarietyofflavors.
The2014fairwillfeatureanAlgaeBaratwhich"mockturkey"and"pseudosteak"willbeserved.It
won'tbebadatall(ifyoucandigupthosepremiumprices),buttherewillbeconsiderable
psychologicalresistancetosuchaninnovation.
Althoughtechnologywillstillkeepupwithpopulationthrough2014,itwillbeonlythrougha
supremeeffortandwithbutpartialsuccess.Notalltheworld'spopulationwillenjoythegadgety
worldofthefuturetothefull.Alargerportionthantodaywillbedeprivedandalthoughtheymaybe
betteroff,materially,thantoday,theywillbefurtherbehindwhencomparedwiththeadvanced
portionsoftheworld.Theywillhavemovedbackward,relatively.

Norcantechnologycontinuetomatchpopulationgrowthifthatremainsunchecked.Consider
Manhattanof1964,whichhasapopulationdensityof80,000persquaremileatnightandofover
100,000persquaremileduringtheworkingday.Ifthewholeearth,includingtheSahara,the
HimalayanMountainpeaks,Greenland,Antarcticaandeverysquaremileoftheoceanbottom,tothe
deepestabyss,wereaspackedasManhattanatnoon,surelyyouwouldagreethatnowaytosupport
suchapopulation(letalonemakeitcomfortable)wasconceivable.Infact,supportwouldfaillong
beforetheWorldManhattanwasreached.
Well,theearth'spopulationisnowabout3,000,000,000andisdoublingevery40years.Ifthisrateof
doublinggoesunchecked,thenaWorldManhattaniscominginjust500years.Allearthwillbea
singlechokedManhattanbyA.D.2450andsocietywillcollapselongbeforethat!
Thereareonlytwogeneralwaysofpreventingthis:(1)raisethedeathrate(2)lowerthebirthrate.
Undoubtedly,theworldofA>D.2014willhaveagreedonthelattermethod.Indeed,theincreasing
useofmechanicaldevicestoreplacefailingheartsandkidneys,andrepairstiffeningarteriesand
breakingnerveswillhavecutthedeathratestillfurtherandhaveliftedthelifeexpectancyinsome
partsoftheworldtoage85.
Therewill,therefore,beaworldwidepropagandadriveinfavorofbirthcontrolbyrationaland
humanemethodsand,by2014,itwillundoubtedlyhavetakenseriouseffect.Therateofincreaseof
populationwillhaveslackened*but,Isuspect,notsufficiently.
Oneofthemoreseriousexhibitsatthe2014World'sFair,accordingly,willbeaseriesoflectures,
moviesanddocumentarymaterialattheWorldPopulationControlCenter(adultsonlyspecial
showingsforteenagers).
Thesituationwillhavebeenmadethemoreseriousbytheadvancesofautomation.TheworldofA.D.
2014willhavefewroutinejobsthatcannotbedonebetterbysomemachinethanbyanyhuman
being.Mankindwillthereforehavebecomelargelyaraceofmachinetenders.Schoolswillhavetobe
orientedinthisdirection.PartoftheGeneralElectricexhibittodayconsistsofaschoolofthefuturein
whichsuchpresentrealitiesasclosedcircuitTVandprogrammedtapesaidtheteachingprocess.Itis
notonlythetechniquesofteachingthatwilladvance,however,butalsothesubjectmatterthatwill
change.Allthehighschoolstudentswillbetaughtthefundamentalsofcomputertechnologywill
becomeproficientinbinaryarithmeticandwillbetrainedtoperfectionintheuseofthecomputer
languagesthatwillhavedevelopedoutofthoselikethecontemporary"Fortran"(from"formula
translation").
Evenso,mankindwillsufferbadlyfromthediseaseofboredom,adiseasespreadingmorewidely
eachyearandgrowinginintensity.Thiswillhaveseriousmental,emotionalandsociological
consequences,andIdaresaythatpsychiatrywillbefarandawaythemostimportantmedical
specialtyin2014.Theluckyfewwhocanbeinvolvedincreativeworkofanysortwillbethetrue
eliteofmankind,fortheyalonewilldomorethanserveamachine.
Indeed,themostsomberspeculationIcanmakeaboutA.D.2014isthatinasocietyofenforced
leisure,themostglorioussinglewordinthevocabularywillhavebecomework!