Reasons for the Arab Spring

The Root Causes of the Arab Awakening in 2011

By Primoz Manfreda
1. Arab Youth: Demographic Time Bomb - Arab regimes have been sitting on a
demographic time bomb for decades. According to the UN Development Program, the
population in Arab countries more than doubled between 1975 and 2005 to 314 million.
In Egypt, two-thirds of the population is under 30. Political and economic development in
most Arab states simply could not keep up with the staggering increase in the
population, as the ruling elites incompetence helped lay the seeds for their own demise.
2. Unemployment - The Arab world has a long history of struggle for political change,
from leftist groups to Islamist radicals. But the protests that started in 2011 could not
have evolved into a mass phenomenon had it not been for the widespread discontent
over unemployment and low living standards. The anger of university graduates forced
to drive taxis to survive, and families struggling to provide for their children transcended
ideological divisions.
3. Ageing Dictatorships - The economic situation could stabilize over time under a
competent and credible government, but by the end of the 20th century most Arab
dictatorships were utterly bankrupt both ideologically and morally. When the Arab Spring
happened in 2011, Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak had been in power since 1980,
Tunisias Ben Ali since 1987, while Muammar al-Qaddaf ruled over Libya for 42 years.
Most of the population was deeply cynical about the legitimacy of these ageing regimes,
although until 2011 most remained passive out of fear of the security services, and due
to an apparent lack of better alternatives or fear of an Islamist takeover).
4. Corruption - Economic hardships can be tolerated if the people believe there is a
better future ahead, or feel that the pain is at least somewhat equally distributed.
Neither was the case in the Arab world, where the state-led development gave place to
crony capitalism that benefted only a small minority. In Egypt, new business elites
collaborated with the regime to amass fortunes unimaginable to the majority of the
population surviving on $2 a day. In Tunisia, no investment deal was closed without a
kick-back to the ruling family.
5. National Appeal of the Arab Spring - The key to the mass appeal of the Arab
Spring was its universal message. It called on the Arabs to take back their country away
from the corrupt elites, a perfect mixture of patriotism and social message. Instead of
ideological slogans, the protesters wielded national flags, along with the iconic rallying
call that became the symbol of the uprising across the region: The People Want the Fall
of the Regime!. The Arab Spring united, for a brief time, both secularists and Islamists,
left wing groups and advocates of liberal economic reform, middle classes and the poor.
6. Leaderless Revolt - Although backed in some countries by youth activist groups and
unions, the protests were initially largely spontaneous, not linked to a particular political
party or an ideological current. That made it difficult for the regime to decapitate the
movement by simply arresting a few troublemakers, a situation that the security forces
were completely unprepared for.
7. Social Media - The frst mass protest in Egypt was announced on Facebook by an
anonymous group of activists, who in a few days managed to attract tens of thousands

of people. The social media proved a powerful mobilization tool that helped the activists
to outwit the police.

8. Rallying Call of the Mosque - The most iconic and best-attended protests took
place on Fridays, when Muslim believers head to the mosque for the weekly sermon and
prayers. Although the protests were not religiously inspired, the mosques became the
perfect starting point for mass gatherings. The authorities could cordon off the main
squares and target universities, but they could
9. Bungled State Response - The response of Arab dictators to the mass protests was
predictably awful, going from dismissal to panic, from police brutality to piecemeal
reform that came too little too late. Attempts to put down the protests through the use of
force backfred spectacularly. In Libya and Syria it led to civil war. Every funeral for the
victim of state violence only
10. Contagion Effect
Within a month of the downfall of the Tunisian dictator in January 2011, the protests
spread to almost every Arab country, as people copied the tactics of the revolt, though
with varying intensity and success. Broadcast live on Arab satellite channels, the
resignation in February 2011 of Egypts Hosni Mubarak, one of the most powerful Middle
Eastern leaders, broke the wall of fear and changed the region forever.
County by Country Summary of Arab Spring
By Primoz Manfreda
The Arab Spring was a series of protests and uprisings in the Middle East that began with
unrest in Tunisia in late 2010. The Arab Spring has brought down regimes in some Arab
countries, sparked mass violence in others, while some governments managed to delay
the trouble with a mix of repression, promise of reform and state largesse.
1. Tunisia
Tunisia is the birthplace of the Arab Spring. The self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi,
a local vendor outraged over the injustices suffered at the hands of the local police,
sparked countrywide protests in December 2010. The main target was the corruption
and repressive policies of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who was forced to flee the
country on January 14 2011 after the armed forces refused to crack down on the
protests.
Following Ben Alis downfall, Tunisia entered a protracted period of political transition.
Parliamentary elections in October 2011 were won by Islamists who entered into a
coalition government with smaller secular parties. But instability continues with disputes
over the new constitution and ongoing protests calling for better living conditions.
2. Egypt
The Arab Spring began in Tunisia, but the decisive moment that changed the region
forever was the downfall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the Wests key Arab ally,
in power since 1980. Mass protests started on January 25 2011 and Mubarak was forced

to resign on February 11, after the military, similar to Tunisia, refused to intervene
against the masses occupying the central Tahrir Square in Cairo.
But that was to be only the frst chapter in the story of Egypts revolution, as deep
divisions emerged over the new political system. Islamists from the Freedom and Justice
Party (FJP) won the parliamentary and presidential election in 2011/12, and their
relations with secular parties soured. Protests for deeper political change continue.
Meanwhile, Egyptian militaryremains the single most powerful political player, and much
of the old regime remains in place. The economy has been in freefall since the start of
unrest.

3. Libya
By the time the Egyptian leader resigned, large parts of the Middle East were already in
turmoil. The protests against Col. Muammar al-Qaddafs regime in Libya started on
February 15 2011, escalating into the frst civil war caused by the Arab Spring. In March
2011 the NATO forces intervened against the Qaddaf's army, helping the opposition
rebel movement to capture most of the country by August 2011. Qaddaf was killed on
October 20.
But the rebels triumph was shortlived, as various rebel militias effectively partitioned
the country among them, leaving a weak central government that continues to struggle
to exert its authority and provide basic services to its citizens. Most of the oil production
has returned on stream, but political violence remains endemic, and religious extremism
has been on the rise.
4. Yemen
Yemeni leader Ali Abdullah Saleh was the fourth victim of the Arab Spring. Emboldened
by events in Tunisia, anti-government protesters of all political colors started pouring
onto the streets in mid-January 2011. Hundreds of people died in clashes as progovernment forces organized rival rallies, and the army began to disintegrate into two
political camps. Meanwhile,Al Qaeda in Yemen began to seize territory in the south of the
country.
A political settlement facilitated by Saudi Arabia saved Yemen from an all-out civil war.
President Saleh signed the transition deal on 23 November 2011, agreeing to step aside
for a transitional government led by Vice-President Abd al-Rab Mansur al-Hadi. However,
little progress toward a stabile democratic order has been made since, with regular Al
Qaeda attacks, separatism in the south, tribal disputes and collapsing economy stalling
the transition.
5. Bahrain
Protests in this small Persian Gulf monarchy began on February 15, just days after
Mubaraks resignation. Bahrain has a long history of tension between the ruling Sunni
royal family, and the majority Shiite population demanding greater political and
economic rights. The Arab Spring reenergized the largely Shiite protest movement and
tens of thousands took to the streets defying live fre from the security forces.
Bahraini royal family was saved by a military intervention of neighboring countries led by
Saudi Arabia, as Washington looked the other way (Bahrain houses US Fifth Fleet). But in
the absence of a political solution, the crackdown failed to suppress the protest

movement. Protests, clashes with security forces, and arrests of opposition activists
continue (see why the crisis won't go away).
6. Syria
Ben Ali and Mubarak were down, but everyone was holding their breath for Syria: a
multi-religious country allied to Iran, ruled by a repressive republican regime and a
pivotal geo-political position. First major protests began in March 2011 in provincial
towns, gradually spreading to all major urban areas. The regimes brutality provoked an
armed response from the opposition, and by mid-2011 army defectors began organizing
in the Free Syrian Army.
By the end of 2011, Syria slid into an intractable civil war, with most of the Alawite
religious minority siding with President Bashar al-Assad, and most of the Sunni majority
supporting the rebels. Both camps have outside backers Russia supports the regime,
while Saudi Arabia supports the rebels with neither side able to break the deadlock.

7. Morocco
The Arab Spring hit Morocco on February 20 2011, when thousands of protesters
gathered in the capital Rabat and other cities demanding greater social justice and limits
on the power ofKing Mohammed VI. The king responded by offering constitutional
amendments giving up some of his powers, and by calling a fresh parliamentary election
that was less heavily controlled by the royal court than previous polls.
This, together with fresh state funds to help low-income families, blunted the appeal of
the protest movement, with many Moroccans content with the kings program of gradual
reform. Rallies demanding a genuine constitutional monarchy continue, but have so far
failed to mobilize the masses witnessed in Tunisia or Egypt.
8. Jordan
Protests in Jordan gained momentum in late January 2011, as Islamists, leftist groups and
youth activists protested against living conditions and corruption. Similar to Morocco,
most Jordanians wanted to reform, rather than abolish the monarchy, giving King
Abdullah II the breathing space that his republican counterparts in other Arab countries
didnt have.
As a result, the king managed to put the Arab Spring on hold by making cosmetic
changes to the political system and reshuffling the government. Fear of chaos similar to
Syria did the rest. However, the economy is doing poorly and none of the key issues
have been addressed. The protesters demands could grow more radical over time.