SENATE OVERVIEW

By Jennifer Duffy, July 25, 2014

July Senate Overview

Primary season is largely completed, the August congressional recess starts next week, and the general election is a
mere 102 days away. As such, this is as good a time as any to assess where the battle for the Senate stands. Just how
close are Republicans to picking up the six seats they need to win the majority? The short answer is pretty close.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Republicans and Democrats hold very different perspectives on the state of play in the
most competitive races, and where the overall battle for the majority stands today.
As a quick refresher, there are 36 races on the ballot in November: 21 seats currently held by Democrats and 15
held by Republicans. There are seven open seats. Republicans hold three of them: Georgia, Nebraska, and
Oklahoma. Democrats have four: Iowa, Michigan, South Dakota, and West Virginia. To win the majority,
Republicans need a net gain of six seats.
Interestingly enough, strategists in both parties contend that things havent changed much in the last 60 to 90 days.
There has been very little movement in individual races. At the same time, both parties argue that this works to
their benefit. Of course, with less than four months until Election Day, neither party is going to concede much at
this point.
Democrats feel that they have survived the hardest phase of the election cycle, citing the barrage of television ads
from Republican groups like Americans for Prosperity and American Crossroads against Democratic incumbents.
The ads started in January and ran through the spring, and while there was push back from Democrats and their
allies, strategists note that they were outspent in almost every race. They feel that Republicans have thrown their
biggest and best arguments at Democratic incumbents and challengers, and they are still standing. They also
contend that as a result of the early attacks, voters arent going to hear much in the way of new negative
information about Democratic candidates.
By contrast, Democrats argue that voters have only started to hear negative information about Republican
candidates, many of whom remained undefined. This is largely because many Republicans had primaries, and
Democrats havent aired nearly as much television advertising in key states as Republicans have. It is worth noting
that while that assessment is largely true, it does not mean that Democrats havent made significant expenditures in
some states, including Alaska, North Carolina, and Michigan. While Republicans fared pretty well in primaries,
mostly getting the nominees they wanted, Democrats say that GOP nominees moved far to the right, taking
radical positions on everything from immigration and personhood to the minimum wage and womens health
care.
Democrats also contend that Republicans will be hurt by a spate of recent issues, particularly the U.S. Supreme
Courts decision in Hobby Lobby, in which the court ruled that closely held companies can eliminate insurance
coverage for some contraceptives if such coverage is at odds with their religious beliefs. Democrats believe that the
decision has far-reaching implications, citing ENDA as one example. Some progressive groups have dropped their

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support for ENDA as it is currently written because they feel that employers could use Hobby Lobby to refuse to
hire gays and lesbians. The current immigration crisis is another issue in which Democrats feel that they can gain
the upper hand. The issue plays into a deep divide within the Republican Party, making it a difficult issue for GOP
candidates to navigate. Although the issue is far from settled, Democrats seem ready to blame Republicans if
President Obamas request for funding to address the issue fails to pass.
Democratic incumbents and some challengers have outraised Republicans in many key races, which Democrats say
hands them another big advantage. While overall spending may well be equal, and Republicans, with the help of
outside groups, may outspend Democrats in some races, Democratic strategists argue that campaign money is worth
more for two reasons. First, if a campaign controls most of the spending, particularly on television advertising,
then they have better control of the message. This proved to be true in 2012, particularly on the Republican side,
but the advertising from outside groups that has aired this cycle has been more on message than it was last cycle.
Second, campaigns get more bang for their advertising dollar than outside groups because candidates pay the lowest
available rate while outside groups pay retail. As a result, campaigns are able to buy more ad time with their funds
than outside groups can.
Finally, Democratic strategists say that their investment in voter contact and get-out-the-vote activities will make
the difference in close races. One of Democrats biggest challenges this cycle is that groups like single women,
minorities and younger voters tend to stay home in mid-term elections. These groups were key to President
Obamas victories in 2008 and 2012, and that Democratic Senate candidates benefited from this higher turnout.
Known as the Bannock Street Project, Democrats plan to apply the same tactics and technology the Obama
campaign used in 2012 in key Senate races. They contend that the Hobby Lobby decision, for example, will
motivate single women to go to the polls the polls in November. The minimum wage is another issue they believe
will help get minorities and younger voters to the polls. It is not an accident that there are minimum wage
referenda on the ballot in Arkansas and Alaska.
Given the circumstances they face this cycle, Democrats are generally pleased with where they stand in individual
races at this point. They concede that there remain a number of unknowns, but maintain that they are still viable in
all the competitive races at this stage of the cycle.
Republicans, of course, have a very different take on where the battle for control of the Senate stands today. First,
they point to the overall political environment. President Obama is unpopular, particularly in many of the stats
hosting competitive Senate contests. According to the latest Gallup poll (July 14-20), his job ratings are 43-percent
approve to 51-percent disapprove. Nearly two-thirds of voters believe that the country is headed in the wrong
direction. Voters have no confidence in Congress, which has a job approval rating in the mid-teens. Further, the
generic congressional ballot test is virtually tied; some polls do give Republicans a slight advantage. Even a tied
generic ballot tests tend to work to Republicans advantage. Finally, national polls indicate that Republicans have
intensity on their side. In other words, Republican voters are much more excited about this election and are more
likely to vote in November.
Next, Republican strategists point to the issues dominating the news today, namely the situations in the Ukraine,
Israel and Iraq, the influx of unaccompanied minors at the border, as well as the scandals at the Veterans
Administration and the Internal Revenue Service, combine to make President Obamas Administration, and
congressional Democrats by extension, look incompetent. It doesnt help that the President looks disengaged as he
travels the country raising money for Democrats. Republicans add that Obama is not likely to get any good news

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for the rest of the summer.

Strategists also point to this cycles GOP primaries. Unlike 2010 and 2012, the most electable candidate emerged in
almost every contest this year. The Tea Party has been much less of a factor than it was in the last two cycles. And,
at least as of now, no candidate has made a fatal error along the lines of Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock, who
famously tanked their own candidacies in 2012 by making ridiculous claims.
Not surprisingly, Republicans disagree with Democrats contention that all the spending by Republican outside
groups on television advertising didnt do much damage. In their view, these ads werent ever going to put any race
away early. Instead, they worked to prevent Democratic incumbents and challengers from gaining traction,
especially in states where Republicans had primaries. Iowa is a good example. Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley
did not face a primary and thus had the field to himself for months while Republicans hosted a crowded primary.
The fact that state Sen. Joni Ernst is now running even with Braley is a sign that the outside ads kept Braley from
gaining traction while Republicans were otherwise occupied. Of course, some of Braleys own missteps have also
contributed to his inability to establish a lead in the race.
In short, Republicans feel equally good about where their candidates are today.
Our Take: And whats our take on where the battle for the Senate is today? As is most often the case, we believe
that it is somewhere in between. Neither party is probably in as strong a position as they think they are. Both raise
very solid points. Early advertising from Republican outside groups did prevent Democratic incumbents from
gaining momentum. Even if an incumbent did not lose ground, no movement is a win for Republicans. And,
Democrats point about the value of campaign cash over outside spending is well taken, although it wont bear fruit
until the fall.
One great frustration we have this cycle is polling. Yes, polling has been problem in the last three cycles, but it
seems to be getting worse, not better this cycle. First, there are more robo polls on both sides of the aisle. While
some of these polls are experimenting with using pre-screened cell phone panels and interviews via the Internet,
none of this is accepted methodology yet, so we have no idea if such polls are any more accurate than more
traditional robo polls. Unfortunately, there are more and more races in which the only public data are robo polls.
The absence of publicly available live interview polls makes our job more difficult, and it has become almost
impossible for the average voter to make sense of the available data. As a result, we are relying on trend lines to
assess where races stand as much as possible, especially the trend lines produced by HuffPollster.
Overall, Republicans still have more advantages going into the fall, especially when it comes to the Senate race
map, national environment, and President Obamas unpopularity. All these factors mean that Republicans will
certainly gain seats. It is not yet clear that they will gain the six seats they need for a majority. At this point, there
are a lot of unanswered questions. Some will get answered in the fall. Others wont get answered until Election
Day.
Here are the questions that are most relevant today:
Does the overall political environment change in any meaningful way between now and midOctober?
Although voter attitudes on health care reform are largely baked into the cake, does Obamacare

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produce any significant good or bad news before the election?

Does Congress take meaningful action on the immigration crisis or the VA scandal before they
adjourn in October? If not, which party gets the blame?
Can Democrats successfully replicate the Obama get-out-the-vote effort, especially in red states like
Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky and Louisiana?
Have Republicans made enough gains in their own use of technology to improve their get-out-thevote efforts to offset Democrats advantage to some degree?
Is the Hobby Lobby decision enough to motivate single women to the polls in November?
Can Republican outside groups help GOP candidates keep pace with spending by Democratic
campaigns and outside groups in the fall?
The Math: Since any battle for the majority is always a math question, where does the equation stand today? The
answer to the equation is, of course, six seats. Republicans start with a gain of three seats, winning the open seats in
South Dakota and West Virginia, and the seat held by appointed Sen. John Walsh in Montana.
Democrats tried to light a fire under the race in South Dakota by pointing to the independent bid of former GOP
Sen. Larry Pressler as a threat to former Gov. Mike Rounds. Pressler, though, is siphoning as many votes away
from Democrat Rick Weiland as he is from Rounds. Rounds remains a heavy favorite in November.
Although it was reported yesterday that the Senate Majority PAC would air $200,000 in television ads in West
Virginia, that probably isnt enough to help Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant close the gap with GOP
U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito. This is especially true since Tennant needs to become better known in Capitos
district, which is in the very expensive Washington, DC media market.
There were signs that the race in Montana might be getting more competitive, but recent revelations that Walsh
heavily plagiarized a research paper while at the Army War College likely puts the brakes on any momentum that
might have been building. For the record, the Walsh campaign attributes the failure to provide citations to
unintentional errors.
With these three races pretty much in the bank, Republicans need to win three more without losing any of their own
vulnerable seats. The Cook Political Report currently has seven Democratic-held seats in the Toss Up column:
Sens. Mark Begich in Alaska, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, Mark Udall in Colorado, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, and
Kay Hagan in North Carolina, as well as two open seats in Iowa and Michigan.
According to the HuffPollster trend lines, the Republican nominee only leads in one of the seven. In Arkansas, the
HuffPollster trend line gives GOP U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton a 47.4-percent to 43.9-percent advantage over Pryor.
Democrats contest these polls, arguing that Pryor has opened up lead, but we have not seen a non-partisan, live
interview poll with Pryor ahead since early May. While Democrats acknowledge the challenge Pryor faces, they say
that voters are now learning about Cottons votes against disaster relief and the farm bill, and coming to the
conclusion that he is too conservative for the state.

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There four seats in the Toss Up column that are tied or within the margin of error. The first is the race in Alaska
where Sen. Mark Begich is seeking a second term. The primary isnt until August 19, but former state Natural
Resources Director Dan Sullivan is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. He is also the candidate that
Democrats are have been targeting with television ads from outside groups, which would support the belief that he
is the strongest general election candidate in the GOP field. According to the HuffPollster trend line, Begich is
ahead of Sullivan, 44.7 percent to 44.5 percent. While Republicans have been battling it out for their nomination,
Begich has been using television ads to build a case for his re-election. This is one state where Democrats argue that
voters have heard all the negative information there is to hear about Begich, but havent heard much about
Sullivan. This isnt entirely true given the number of negative ads Democrats have run against Sullivan. As long as
Sullivan wins the primary, this is going to be a very close race.
The contest in Colorado where Sen. Mark Udall is seeking a second term is also within the margin of error. The
race started late since GOP U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner didnt decide to run until late February. Until Gardners
announcement, it looked as if Udall would have a fairly easy race. Against Gardner, though, it is now a Toss Up.
According to the HuffPollster trend line, Udall is ahead of Gardner, 45 percent to 44.6 percent. Democrats contend
that Gardners record wont hold up to scrutiny, citing his past support for a statewide personhood amendment.
They believe that this is one state in which the Hobby Lobby decision will motivate women in suburban Denver to
go to the polls. Gardner rescinded his support for personhood early in the campaign and has proposed selling birth
control over the counter. Republicans contend that Udalls opposition to the Keystone pipeline and his very nuanced
position on fracking hurt him with voters. There will be a fracking amendment on the November ballot. Again, this
race should stay close through the fall.
As always, Louisiana is its own special case. All candidates will run on a single ballot on November 4. If no
candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, the top two candidates will move on to a run-off on December 6. Only the
most optimistic Democrats dare to think that Sen. Mary Landrieu can avoid a run-off. In that December contest she
is very likely to face Republican physician and U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy. President Obama is unpopular in the state,
which has gotten more conservative since Landrieu was last on the ballot. She has been emphasizing her
chairmanship of the Senate Energy Committee, but it is a double-edged sword as her priorities like support for the
Keystone pipeline and opposition to the EPAs proposed rules for coal-fired plants arent getting any traction in the
Democratic-controlled Senate. To date, Cassidy has focused his campaign on his opposition to health care reform.
Assuming that Landrieu and Cassidy move on to a December run-off, the HuffPollster trend line shows the race
tied at 47.1 percent. What that run-off will look like depends on what happens on Election Day. And, yes, there is
a possibility that the run-off could decide the Senate majority.
The open seat in Iowa is the last of the Democratic-held seats that is virtually tied. Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce
Braley is facing off against GOP state Sen. Joni Ernst. As we noted when we moved this race to Toss Up last week,
Ernst has proven to be a solid candidate, who has beaten the expectations. She run a great primary race, finishing
well ahead of expectations and is more than holding her own in the general election. Braley has not been a flawless
candidate, committing several gaffes that voters dont seem willing to forget. Democrats argue that Ernst has taken
radical position on many issues and liken her to the Sarah Palin of Iowa. While Palin did endorse Ernst in the
primary, she was recruited into the race by popular Gov. Terry Branstad, who will also be on the ballot in
November.
Democrats have only started to make their case against Ernst, so it remains to be seen how she holds up against
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what will undoubtedly be relentless attacks, some of which started while Ernst was out of state fulfilling her duties
in the Army Reserves. Today, the HuffPollster trend line of polls taken since the June 4 primary give Ernst an
insignificant lead over Braley, 43.7 percent to 43.5 percent. This race has a ways to go, but for now, it is among
the most competitive in the country.
Democrats have opened up small leads in two more seats in the Toss Up column: Michigan and North Carolina. In
the open-seat contest in Michigan, Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters is facing off against former Republican
Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. Peters got off to a slow start, forcing Democrats to do some re-engineering of
his campaign, including dispatching DSCC Political Director Paul Tencher to manage the campaign. Tencher
managed Democrat Joe Donnellys successful Senate race in Indiana in 2012. Peters is now running a more
aggressive race and taking aim at Land, who was ahead early in the race. According to the HuffPollster trend line,
Peters is now ahead of Land, 43.5 percent to 37 percent.
Lands message has gotten sharper in the past couple of weeks, and thanks to solid fundraising and personal
contributions, she has kept pace with Peters financially. Democrats contend, though, that her personal contributions
are going to create problems for her since she and her husband file separate tax returns and she doesnt claim any
meaningful personal wealth on hers.
This race isnt over, but Democrats are now in a better position than they were four months ago.
There have been times during the cycle when North Carolina Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan looked to be the most
vulnerable Democratic incumbent up this year. Republican outside groups have spent millions in television ads
against Hagan for her vote in favor of health care reform. Republicans got the strongest general election candidate
out of the primary in state House Speaker Thom Tillis, who won the nomination outright, avoiding a prolonged
and expensive run-off contest. Tillis, though, has been caught up in a special session of the state legislature. The
Republican-controlled legislature is not very popular, which has provided Hagan with some breathing room and
provided Democrats with additional fodder with which to attack Tillis. The result is that Hagan has opened up a bit
of a lead. According to the HuffPollster trend line, she is ahead of Tillis, 42.3 percent to 37.4 percent. Libertarian
candidate and pizza delivery guy Sean Haugh is currently pulling 8.1 percent.
Democrats believe that Hagan has turned the corner, and that Tillis chances have been diminished. We tend to
believe that Tillis problems have more to do with the legislature and want to see what happens once the special
session is behind him and the focus returns to Hagan.
The race in New Hampshire is in the Lean Democratic column. Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is getting
challenge from former Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown. Brown won a special election in Massachusetts in 2011,
but lost the general election in 2012. He has since moved to New Hampshire where he has had a home for 20 years.
Brown faces a primary, but he is the clear frontrunner. The HuffPollster trend line currently gives Shaheen a 49.4percent to 40.6-percent advantage over Brown. Brown probably needs some breaks to put this within the margin of
error, but there are few states more susceptible to the political winds than New Hampshire, so this bears watching,
Assuming Republicans win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, they would only need to win three out of
these seven races to take the majority. This assumes that they hold on to all their own seats, which is not a given.
The fact that there are seven Toss Up races does give them some margin for error. And, Republicans continue to
watch the races in Minnesota (Sen. Al Franken), Oregon (Sen. Jeff Merkley) and Virginia (Sen. Mark Warner).

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If the political landscape becomes even more favorable for Republicans, then any of these could become very
competitive very quickly.
Perhaps Democrats biggest challenge this cycle has been expanding the field by making more Republicans-held
seats competitive. Of the 15 Republican seats up this cycle, only one (Maine) is in a state that Obama carried . As a
result, there are only two Republican-held seats at risk: the open seat in Georgia and Sen. Mitch McConnell in
Kentucky.
The field in Georgia is finally set. Businessman David Perdue won the Republican run-off on Tuesday, beating
U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston. The Democratic nominee is Michelle Nunn, the former CEO of the Points of Light
Foundation and the daughter of former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn. Nunn has had this race to herself for a year, which
has allowed her to build an organization and a hefty bank account. On the flip side, she hasnt really been tested by
any engagement with Republicans. That will change very soon. Democrats are happy to have Perdue as a
challenger, contending that his record as a CEO of numerous companies gives them plenty of ammunition. He was
also somewhat gaffe prone during the primary, although he exhibited more discipline in the run-off.
Not surprisingly, Nunn starts the general election with a lead over Perdue. According to the HuffPollster trend line,
Nunn is ahead of Perdue, 44.8 percent to 42.9 percent.
This race is just days old and needs some time to develop, but expect a close contest.
There arent many races that get more national attention than the one in Kentucky between Senate Republican
Leader Mitch McConnell and Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. And, there is probably no
seat that Democrat want more than this one. We wrote about this race at length in late June and not much has
changed. After easily winning his primary, McConnell has opened a small, but statistically insignificant lead over
Grimes, 47.4 percent to 44.8 percent, according to the HuffPollster trend line.
We still expect this to be one of the closest races of the cycle.
The Bottom Line: We give Republicans about a 50-50 chance of taking the majority. They are halfway there, but
picking up the other three seats wont be easy. They can afford to lose one of their own seats and still have a
chance at 51 seats, but they cant lose both Georgia and Kentucky. As the cycle progresses, the answers to many of
the questions we posed above will become apparent. This will in turn provide some clarity as to just how close
Republicans are to winning the majority, or whether Democrats have been able to erect enough roadblocks for them
to be able to hold on to what would be a very slim majority.
Caroline Hudson contributed to this report.

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