Scenario 1 1)

Overview of key markets

Market share
targets

11%

9%

13%
5303

487

3771
India

719

China
China Export
USA
Italy
Ukraine
ROW

263
416

548

48
131

00
113
00
205
41
43
08
138

Address.
OI
market targets

India

234
975

687

138
554

00
00
126
135
151
95
14
166

Address.
OI
market targets

2007
Russia

309

946

946

946

2069

2069

2069

2069

946
809

534

535

227

946

5376

534

534

156

439

24%

5682

5559

Russia

19%

China Export

1184

709
140
00
252

Address.
OI
market targets

2008
China

203

39
91
35
160
110
22
00

1094 146
203

1175
140
312
80
Address.
OI
market targets

2009
USA

Italy

2010
Ukraine

210
35
200
110
53
28

1311
203
269

1175

140
312
00

192
161
200
110
67
00

Address.
OI
market targets

2011

ROW

1) India: without Metro segment; USA: without HR (Washington, NYCT, Patco) and without PC (Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans)

Page 1

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Scenario 2 1)

Overview of key markets

Market share
targets

15%

12%

13%

18%

22%
7756
534
309

7054
534

5559
487

Russia
India
China
China Export
USA
Italy
Ukraine
ROW

5303
534

156

946

3771

946

535
946

2069

227

946

2069

439
719
946
809
416

548

263
48
131

00
113
00
205
41
43
08
138

Address.
OI
market targets

India

234
975
554

687

138

00
00
126
135
151
95
14
166

Address.
OI
market targets

2007
Russia

2069

China Export

709

203
1184

140
00

39
91
35
160
110
252
22
00

Address.
OI
market targets

2008
China

2069

1575

1260
1175

Address.
OI
market targets

2009
USA

Italy

140
80
312

2010
Ukraine

146
210
35
200
276
53
28

2583

269

1741 192
1175

540
140
00

161
200
312
67
00

Address.
OI
market targets

2011

ROW

1) India: incl. Metro segment; USA: incl. HR (Washington, NYCT, Patco) and incl. PC (Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans)

Page 2

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Addressable market & targets (Russia)

Market share
targets

0%

0%

7%

27%

50%

530

530

530

490

Addressable market size in

2007-2011:
253'

440

Addressable market size

2007-2011:
51'
270

OI target 2009-2111:
45'

146

OI target 2009-2111:
15'

39
00

00

2007

2008

Addressable market

Page 3

Average market share:

2009

2010

2011

28%

OI targets TS BG

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Addressable market & targets (Ukraine)

Market share
targets

6%

10%

15%

38%

48%

140

140

140

140

Addressable market size in

2007-2011:

130

69'
Addressable market size
2007-2011:
14'

67

OI target 2007-2111:
16'4

53

OI target 2007-2111:
22

3'3

14

10

Average market share:

2007

2008

Addressable market

Page 4

2009

2010

2011

23%

OI targets TS BG

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Scenario 1:
Without HR
segment

Addressable market & targets (India)

Market share
targets

30%

0%

40%

61%

62%
310

300

Addressable market size in

2007-2011:
120'
Addressable market size
2007-2011:

230
200

187

192

160

24'
OI target 2007-2111:
53'

91
OI target 2007-2111:

62

10'6
00
2007

2008

Addressable market

Page 5

Average market share:

2009

2010

2011

39%

OI targets TS BG

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Scenario 2:
With HR
segment

Addressable market & targets (India)

Market share
targets

16%

0%

40%

39%

62%

Addressable market size in

2007-2011:

720

195'
Addressable market size
2007-2011:

540

39'
OI target 2007-2111:
310
230

210

160
113

192

00
2008

Addressable market

Page 6

OI target 2007-2111:
12'

91

2007

61'

Average market share:

2009

2010

2011

31%

OI targets TS BG

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Target for 2012:

30% market share
400 bogies p.a.

Addressable market & targets (Italy)

Market share
targets

90%

10%

21%

27%

27%

1180

1180

1180

Addressable market size in

2007-2011:
455'

980

Addressable market size

2007-2011:
91'
OI target 2007-2111:
101'

252

312

312

20'

95

50 43

OI target 2007-2111:

Average market share:

2007

2008

Addressable market

Page 7

2009

2010

2011

35%

OI targets TS BG

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Scenario 1: Without
Washington, NYCT, Patco,
Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans

Addressable market & targets (USA)

Market share
targets

15%

65%

54%

54%

54%

Addressable market size in

2007-2011:

260

110'

230
200

200

200

Addressable market size

2007-2011:
22'

151
OI target 2007-2111:
110

110

110

52'
OI target 2007-2111:

41

10'
Average market share:

2007

2008

Addressable market

Page 8

2009

2010

2011

48%

OI targets TS BG

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Scenario 2: With
Washington, NYCT, Patco,
Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans

Addressable market & targets (USA)

Market share
targets

15%

65%

54%

18%

21%
2580

Addressable market size in

2007-2011:
486'
Addressable market size
2007-2011:

Washington, NYCT, Patco,

Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans

97'

1580

OI target 2007-2111:
112'

540
260

230
40

22'

280
110

Average market share:

2007

2008

Addressable market

Page 9

150

200

OI target 2007-2111:

2009

2010

2011

35%

OI targets TS BG

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Projects 5% probability
not included in targets

Addressable market & targets (China)

Total market
share

12%

9%

6%

8%

12%

Market share
Export

25%

7%

8%

10%

10%

Market share
National

0%

13%

4%

4%

17%

3020

3020

3020

3020

Addressable market size in

2007-2011:
1"382
Addressable market size
2007-2011:
276'

2070

1760

2070

2070

2070

OI target 2007-2111:
126'

810

OI target 2007-2111:
950

950

210
210 00

271 135 950 195 160 950 235

136

35

950 361

200 35

200
161

Address. OI
market targets

Address. OI
market targets

Address. OI
market targets

Address. OI
market targets

Address. OI
market targets

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

China national demand

Page 10

Feb-07

25'
Average market share:
9%

China export

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Italy, China, Russia, Ukraine, India, Iran and U.S.A. are volumewise the most attractive markets the growth markets are
rated low on economic freedom
Market Attractiveness (Bubble Sizes: Addressable Third Market 2007 2009 in Mio )

+ 495 Mio
export potential
for HR, LR, PC

U.S.A.

Economic Freedom

Free

Italy

China

Mostly
Free

Ukraine

Russia

Mostly
Unfree

India

Repressed
Including Single Deck in Italy; incl. Metro segment in India; incl. Metro North in U.S.A.

0%

1%

2%

3%

Source: Market Interviews, Economic freedeom Index, TS BG External Sales, h&z

Page 11

Feb-07

4%

5%
GDP Growth

6%

7%

8%

9%

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Scenario 1 1)

11%

9%

13%

24%

19%

131
7

107
3
5

31
11

31

52
41
1
4

14

17

71
25

15

21

14

11
2007

13
-
2008
Russia

India

16

20

10

20

11

11

19

16

21

15

4
4

2009
China

China Export

27

2010
U.S.A.

Italy

Ukraine

2011
ROW

1) India: without Metro segment; USA: without HR (Washington, NYCT, Patco) and without PC (Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans)

Page 12

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG

Scenario 2 1)

11%

9%

13%

19%

24%

1) India: incl. Metro segment; USA: incl. HR (Washington, NYCT, Patco) and incl. PC (Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans)

Page 13

Feb-07

Transportation Systems / TS BG