Bridgette Rowe

May 2, 2012

Thinking Fast: Jumping to Conclusions

By highlighting our brains different ways of thinking through research, Daniel
Kahneman uses his novel Thinking Fast and Slow to help gain an understanding of how our
brain can transmit in fast responses that we are unaware of. Kahneman begins by introducing a
two-system approach to judgment and choice (13). Kahneman suggests that when we first look at
something we have an original thought that helps us relate to what the situation is. He uses the
example of 17 x 24 to show that we think of it as a multiplication problem first. We are then
capable of thinking what the answer is, we eliminate possible answers under 100 and above 1200
(20). This is an example of slow thinking as our cognitive system was working. Psychologists
have found there are two systems in which we think. The first system is automatic while the
second requires thought processes (21).
System 1 and 2 are familiarized throughout the book as they can both work
together and can work individually. A noticeable difference between the two systems are one is
constantly working, system 1, while the other is more lazier system 2. System 2 is said to have
a more natural speed (39). This suggests that some energy is used when we are in random
thoughts keeping its speed constant and non-strenuous. When our minds are cognitively busy we
tend to diminish our judgments as we loosen our hold on system 2 (41). Activities that require
self-control are said to be in high demands for system 2, also system 2 is said to control thoughts
and actions from system 1 (44). Kahneman is showing that when our brains are at work and we
are diminishing our second system we are more likely to make decisions that we would not
approve of. If we are focused on a certain task and we are than introduced to a new decision, we

are more likely to choose the decision that is more wrong as our system 2 begins to take over
control.
Kahneman then introduces priming as we associate two items together in a quick
response, system 1 (53). Psychologists often have tested priming using word associations but
have discovered that priming does not always have to be associated with words or concepts (53).
This means our actions throughout the day can be due to causes beyond our control. We
consciously, through system 1, do things without thinking. Fast thinking is shown here in full
effect as we often never think why there is a lamp on the desk, we use system 1 to think fast and
accept the lamp. Thus, system 1 is said to help establish norms in our lives (71). These norms we
establish help us communicate with others as we are able to recognize something that is said
without having to think too hard.
Although system 1 allows us to establish norms and think fast it also limits our thinking
as we are more likely to think irrational events as true. System 1 has us jump to conclusions at a
faster rate, having us make assumptions for events before we think fully. Kahneman suggests to
stop quick judgments we must derive information from multiple sources (84). This allows our
system 2 to become more active as we are no longer jumping to conclusions via system 1.
System 1 monitors outside activities constantly while system 2 works to find reason (89). Thus
we fist make judgments based of things we are more likely to see. These ideas can derive from
evolution as we see norms as what things should be. With the extra thinking our system 2 allows
us to make a more accurate judgment as we gather information that is relevant.
Kahneman and Amos study why we fail to think statistically instead we are capable of
thinking of multiple things at once, which is something system 1 is not designed to do. Instead of
focusing on how events came to be, system 1, statistics focuses on what could have happened

(115). Statistics shows how if we can think statistically we can predict things that will happen in
the near future. But does this mean because our system 1 is in use we begin to not develop
thought statistically? Amos and Kahneman then use anchors to help with the priming effect.
System 1 tries to best be conducted in a world with a like number (123). German psychologist
Thomas Mussweiler and Fritz Strack tested a compelling study relating to anchor and our
thoughts. The found that with higher temperatures people often recognized summer and with
colder temperatures, the test subjects recognized winter (123). This shows with an anchor, such
as weather, we are able to relate certain events based upon our previous experiments.
The Tom W study and other stereotypical type studies help us further understand why we
think in system 1 and not statistically. Kahneman uses a woman in a subway reading a
newspaper to ask whether we thought she has a PhD or a non-graduate student (150). Kahneman
then suggests we most likely picked PhD, but then explains why our system 1 thinking may be
wrong. By explaining most with PhDs do not ride the subway we then are using more statistical
based thinking as we are no longer focusing on our first thought, we are thinking slower.
Luck is said to be a factor in success, Kahneman suggest the regression to the mean to
counter act luck. The more extreme the original score the more likely we are to believe it is a
lucky day (178). Those who do good one day have luck that day and not the other. This suggests
that there are other factors preceding luck and the failure the next day. Often pressure effects
ones performance, however one may just be more lucky one day then the next. Along with luck,
we are introduced to predicting what will happen in the future. Thinking more with system 2 we
are able to take account other factors that help one succeed (190). With more background
information we are no longer making quick decisions, we are thinking slower. Thus, we are

somewhat using statistical thinking as we begin to take into account the factors necessary to
society to succeed.
Whether we think slower or faster we are bias to our beliefs and think they are always
right. This often leads us to diminish and ignore any thing that may be right just because we
believe so strongly in our own thoughts. Our mind often makes up events that happen for us to
make sense of what is happening (202). Also, once we adapt a new way of seeing the world we
forget about how we once saw the world (202). Both of these statements prove that we are bias
to our individual thoughts. This is more of an example of system 1 thinking as we think fast and
make up things so our brain understands; as we jump to conclusions.
Nassim Taleb points out, in Black Swan, our tendency to construct and believe coherent
narratives of the past make it difficult for us to accept the limits of our forecasting ability (218).
To us everything makes sense in hindsight. We make excuses for the past to help us understand
better; these excuses often limit our abilities to see what we can do to succeed. However, there
are things we most often remember despite our constant changing in thought. Fear and long term
aversion are said to be something we have in our long term memory that cannot disappear (237).
Fear is something we can either gain or learn. It is one of the only skills that can be taught and
said to last for a long period. We also tend to put our trust into professionals in their respective
roles (243). We are more likely to ask someone who we believe knows what they are talking
about than a random stranger. This then exemplifies system 1 as we jump to conclusions that the
person we believe to be a professional may know less than someone of less status.
Kahneman introduces the idea that economics and thinking can co-exist. Using
economics theories, such as the prospect theory, we can understand how we can think better.
Several economist and psychologist believe our decision making is based on emotions of regret

and disappointment (288). This shows that we are thinking in system 1 still as we continue to
make quick decisions that we believe can have certain effects to our lives. We then see how
economy affects thoughts of different classes as poor thinks like traders (298). The trader
thinks in ways that will help them at the time with the least amount of resources.
Once again the idea that we think regarding consequences is introduced by Kahneman as
we often avoid things that will lead to bad events. We also weigh certain actions more than
others (310). This is similar to picking certain things over others as we see those as more
valuable. Out thinking is fast in this sense as we can see both sides and pick the one that appears
to have the best outcome. This can be bad as we do not tend to slow think and look at all the
factors. Using statistical number and economics Kahneman explains with number situations to
let us see what we would choose (320). He then explains both sides of the thought process as we
begin to understand why we think the way we do. We often choose the more appealing option
first as we use system 1 thinking more unconsciously.
Regret and responsibility are seen to influence how we think. Kahneman describes regret
as an emotion and a punishment we administer to ourselves (346). These regrets help us
understand why certain events go against the norm as we try to make sense of what has just
happened. Regret is seen to counter act the reality of things happening around us. Responsibility
accounts for us spending moist of the day anticipating and avoiding emotional pains we inflict on
ourselves (351). Our emotions related to responsibility shows that we often will purchase the
more expensive item as it is said to be better for us. We are acting upon our emotions as we
choose fast and responsibly. However, our fast thinking does not totally surpass our
responsibility as adults are not willing to trade harm to their children for money. We are

suggested to think of the safest thing that relates to ourselves and do the actions required to make
that happen.
The last idea Kahneman introduces relates to us having two selves. Kahnemans recent
research shows that when one is introduced to a painful situation for more than one occasion they
are more likely to remember the one that lasts longer (378). This is because our mind allows us
to surpass the other event, although the same pain inflicted, and focus on the situation where the
pain is inflicted for a longer duration. Although, the cold hand situation shows that test subjects
choose the situation with less aversive memory, thinking normal (383). This shows the subjects
picking the option they dislike the least. Choosing to live life as a story, Kahneman suggests that
if given the situation of all photos erased from your next vacation, you are more likely to have an
enriched time (391). With no photos to recall your trip, you are more focused on taking in each
event. You are more likely to remember the little things as you are not relying on another source
to help your memory.
In conclusion, we are more likely to think via system 1 which limits our abilities to
remember/ be correct. By thinking fast and making quick judgments we can be limited to
experiences. Also, by choosing events quickly without further thinking we can put ourselves in
harm as we do not pay attention to what is happening next. By thinking through statistics or
economics we can try and grasp a better understanding of what events are up ahead of us. Thus,
we need to use our system 2 more and challenge ourselves to want more out of life.

Source:
Kahneman, Daniel Thinking Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux 2011.
Print.