CanTwitterAccuratelyPredictElections?

RachelCohen
UniversityofCentralFlorida
ENC1102Mon/Wed12:301:20
10/30/2015

CanTwitterAccuratelyPredictElections?
Inrecentyears,twitterhasbeenbeingusedmoreandmoreforthegainofpolitical
electionsand,whilenoteveryonecanagreeonitssuccess,itisevidentthatcampaignmanagers
arestrivingtouseittothebestoftheirabilities.Withthespikeofmoresocialmediasitesand
theyoungergenerationsleaningmoretowardstwitter,instagram,andsnapchatasopposedto
facebook,thepeopleinchargeofelectionsarefollowingthetrendsaswell.Manyresearch
studiesandarticleshavebeenwrittenonthetopicofwhethertwittercanbeusedtopredict
electionsandmanydifferentresultshavebeenproduced.Aftercompilingeighteendifferent
studies,itbecomesevidentthatmoregoesintocheckingtoseeiftwittercanpredictelections
thanwhatmeetstheeye.

Thispaperisabouttwitteranditsabilitytoaccurately,orinaccurately,predictelections.
Thisisnotaboutanyotherformofsocialmediaoranyothertopicthatitmightbeabletopredict
becausethatisbeyondthescopeofthisconversation.Thoughsomeofthearticlescoveredspan
differentcountries,themajorityofthemrelatedirectlytopresidentialelectionswithintheUnited
States.

Thesearticlesandstudieshavebeendonebymanydifferentpeopleinmanydifferent
fields,makingtheresultsspreadtheentirespectrumfromsocialeventstoacademicgatherings.
Withinthetopicsthatcouldbestudiedinacollegesetting,campaignmanagementfallsinat
leastthreedifferentsubsets:politicalscience,communication,andpsychology.Thepeoplewho
writearticlesandstudiesonthisrangefromjournaliststoprofessorsofpoliticalsciencetogreat

communicators.PapershavebeenpublishedinjournalssuchastheAAAI(Associationforthe
AdvancementofArtificialIntelligence)andACM(AssociationforComputingMachinery).Asis
obviousthoughthis,thisisatopicthatrangesmanydifferentpeopleand,whenatopicrangesso
far,manydifferent,andsometimesconflicting,ideasareproduced.

Therearemanyflawswhenitcomestocurrentresearchconversationsaboutwhetheror
nottwittercanbeusedasapredictivemethod,mainlybynotaccountingforvariousfactorsthat
mightaccountforswayedorbiasedinformation.Forfutureresearchtopossiblybecomemore
effective,morecontrolledvariablesmayhavetobestudiedtoensurethatnooutsideinformation
couldmessupresults.
BerminghamA.,SmeatonA.(2011,November13).
OnusingTwittertomonitorpolitical
sentimentandpredictelectionresults
.PaperpresentedattheWorkshoponSentiment
AnalysiswhereAImeetsPsychology,ChiangMai,Thailand.
AdamBermingham,apostdoctoralresearcheratDublinCityUniversity,firsttoucheson
threethingsthatpeopleareattemptingtoutilizetwittertogetfromtheuser's:Event
Monitoring,EmotiveSentiment,andElectionResults.EventMonitoringisusedin
realtimeduringandshortlyaftersomethingimportanthappenedi.e.aspeech,adebate,
etc.Twitterisusefulforthisbeforeresearchers,iftheyworkfastenough,cangetresults
ofthereactionsofthegeneralpopulation.Theymightevenbeabletousethistochange
howaneventisgoingatthetimethatitishappening.EmotiveSentimentisattemptingto
figureouthowpeopleviewsomethingthatisgoingoninlessofapositivevs.negative
wayandmoreofahowdoesitmakethemfeeltypeofway.Peoplecancheckaboxona

surveyiftheresultofthisspecificincidentwaspositiveornegativebutbyusing140
characters,peoplegetrightdowntotheirpointofhowtheyfeel.ThelastisElection
Resultsandthisarticlestudiesthisinfourdifferentcategories:timebased,samplesize
based,cumulative,andmanual.Overall,theyconcludedthatvolumeisamuchbetterand
strongerindicatorofanelectionsresultsthanthesentimentdescribedwithinthetweets.
Boulianne,Shelley."SocialMediaUseandParticipation:AMetaanalysisofCurrentResearch,"
Information,Communication&Society,2015.
ShellyBoulianne,aprofessoratMacEwanUniversitywithabackgroundinPhilosophy
andPsychology,attemptstoanalyzetherelationshipbetweenthemediaandhowactive
apersonisinthepoliticalspectrumbyreadingovervariousstudiesandcompiling
information.Manystudiesseemtoshowthatreadingwhatotherpeoplepostinfluence
peopletobecomemorepoliticallyengaged,regardlessofwhatsidetheinformation
postedcomesfrom.Fromthis,itgoesontosayhowclosefriendspostsmakeamuch
biggerdifferencethanpostsbystrangershowever,allpostsdochangepeoplesvoting
patterns.
Despitethis,thereisstillnotaguaranteedoragreeduponmethodofmonitoringthe
impactthatsocialmediareallyhas.Ofallofthedifferentstudiesconducted,theonethat
showsthebiggestlikelihoodthatthestudiescomedowntomorethanmerechanceisone
abouttheeffectsthatsocialmediahasonyouthvoters.Sincethereisnooneexperimental
design,researchesarestillveryunsureaboutthecausesandeffectsofsocialmediausage.
Forexample,politicalinterestcouldcausepeopletobecomeactiveonsocialmedia
platformsorbeingactiveonsocialmediaplatformscouldcauseaninterestinpolitics.

CastilloC.,MendozaM.,PobleteB.(2011).InformationcredibilityonTwitter.InSrinivasanS.,
RamamrithamK.,KumarA.,RavindraM.P.,BertinoE.,KumarR.(Eds.),
Proceedingsofthe20thinternationalconferenceonWorldWideWeb
(pp.675684).
NewYork,NY:ACM.
CarlosCastillo,theprinciplescientistatQatarComputingResearchInstitute,andtherest
oftheauthorsfocuslessontheactualnotionofpoliticsbeingdiscussedontwitterand
howthataffectedtheelectionandmoreonhowmuchoftheinformationputoutis
valuableandcredible.ItalsoattemptstouncoverifusersonTwitterareabletotellwhat
informationshouldorshouldntbebelieved.Thefirststeptheresearcherstookwas
groupingtheinformationintotwocharatgoried:newsworthyandconversational.One
examplethattheygaveofnewsworthywastweetsthatmentionedthewordsearthday
comparedtotweetswiththekeywordhangoverwhichtendedtobemore
conversational.Thesetweetsarethenanalyzedfromafourprongedscope:message,user,
topic,andpropagation.Themessagelookedatwhatthephysicalaspectsofthetweet:
length,timeofdayitwassent,hasanymentions,hasbeenretweetedorwasaretweet,
etc.Theusershowedinformationaboutthepersonwhotweetedincludingtheirage,
demographicregion,iftheyareverified,iftheyhaveaurlintheirbio,etc.Thetopic
looksattheinformationofthetweet,includingquestionmarks,propernouns,some
specifichashtags,fractionofthetweetthatcontainsemoticons,etc.Thepropagation
looksatthemaxandminlevelsofpropagationusedinthetweet.Overall,theresearchers
cametotheconclusionthatthegeneralpubliccannotprocessinformationandjudgeits
credibilitythesamewayonlineastheycandoinreallife.

Diakopoulos,N.,&Shamma,D.(2010,April10).CharacterizingDebatePerformancevia
AggregatedTwitterSentiment.RetrievedOctober23,2015.
NIckDiakopoulos,anassociateprofessorattheUniversityofMarylandinthecollegeof
journalism,delvesintoTwitterbeforeitbecameextremelypopularandhowthemedia
firststartedtousesocialmediaasananalysistechnique.Thefirstdebatethatwastweeted
andshownonthetelevision,atopicwerefertonowaslivetweeting,wasthe2008
PresidentialDebatebetweenObamaandMcCain.Thisbecamesopopularthatevery
debateandlargeeventfollowingthiswasdonevialivetweeting.Thesuccessratewasby
theamountoftweetsthatcamethrough,butthereweresomefactorsthatwouldinfluence
theresults.Thewaythattheyknewwhowaslivetweetingwasthroughfollowingthe
hashtagsbutthereweremanytweetsthatwereaboutthedebatethatjustdidnthavethe
hashtaginitsotherewasnowaytotrackitatthetime.Thissystemwasalsobrokenin
thesensethatitcouldntaccountforthepeoplewatchingthedebatethatdidnthave
twitteraccountsorchoosenottolivetweetatthattime.
GayoAvello,D.(2012,August28).No,YouCannotPredictElectionsWithTwitter(C.Petrie,
Ed.).RetrievedOctober25,2015.
Theauthorofthisarticlefirstbecameinterestedinthepredictivepowersoftheinternet
afterhearingagoogleemployeediscusshowgooglewasabletotellwhowouldwina
popularelectionbeforetheresultscameouttothepublicbasedonthenumberofgoogle
searches.Afterlookingintothis,theauthordiscoveredthatthisclaimwaswildly
unsupportedbecausethereweresomanyothervariablesthatcameintoplaythatwerenot
addressedwhensheexplainedhowtopredictelections.GayoAvellodecidedtocreate

hisownministudybasedaroundthistoprovehowlikelyitisthat,basedonsocial
media,anelectioncanbepredicted.
Afterdiscoveringhowdifficultusinggooglewas,heswitchedovertotwitterbutthiswas
noeasyfeateither.Usingthe2008U.S.PresidentialElection,hecollecteddatafromall
50statestodetermineiftheycouldhavepredictedtheresultsandfoundthat,yes,Obama
shouldhavebeenpredictedtowin,butnotintheslightmajoritythathedidfollowingthe
resultsfound,Obamashouldhavewoninalandslideineverysinglestatesbasedon
Twitterpredictions.Despitethisfinding,mostpeoplestillheavilybelievedinthe
predictivepowersoftwitterandpublishednumerousarticlesonhowamazingtheresults
were.Theauthorfoundthat,moreoftenthannot,papersarepublishedwithonlypositive
resultsbecausenegativeresultsoronesthatcontradictthegeneralpopulation'sopinion
arehardertobebelieved.Overall,theauthorfoundthatonecannotpredictelections
accuratelyeverytimeoffoftwitterremarksandsetssomeguidelinestowardstheendfor
howresearchersshouldtrytoimprovetheirownstudyonthissametopic.
GayoAvello,D.Metaxas,P.T.andE.Mustafaraj.(2011)LimitsofElectoralPredictionsUsing
TwitterProceedingsoftheFifthInternationalAAAIConferenceonWeblogsandSocial
Media
GayoAvelloisanAssociateprofessorintheDepartmentofComputerScienceatthe
UniversityofOviedowhoiscurrentlyworkingonstudyingsocialmediaanditseffects
onthepublic.Inthemedia,theuseofsocialmediahasbecomeincreasinglyimportantto
politicalelectionsfrompeopleonbothendsofthebeliefthattwittercanorcannotpredict
theoutcomeofvariouscampaigns.Ithasbecomeincreasinglyhypedup,butnotthrough

anyreliablesourcespeoplemainlygettheirinformationfromusergeneratedblogs.The
numberofscholarlyarticlesaboutthisisinconsistentwiththeamountofmediacoverage,
leadingpeopletobelievemorethanwhatisproven.Afterresearching,itisrelativelyeasy
tofigureoutpublicapprovalviasocialmediaandthestudiesonthattendtobeaccurate
andconsistentwithpollingmeasures.Overall,thisarticle'sclaimisthatthereisnomore
likelihoodthattwittercanpredictanelectionthanchancehowever,withfutureresearch
andmoresetmeasuringtools,itisntimpossiblethattwitter.
Livne,A.,Simmons,M.,Adar,E.,&Adamic,L.(2011).ThePartyisOverHere:Structureand
Contentinthe2010Election.
Thisarticle,writtenbyAvishayLivne,asoftwareengineeratgoogle,touchesonhow
accurateTwitteristodeterminethefutureorupcomingsuccessofacandidateandhow
differentpoliticalpartiesusethiseithersuccessfullyornot.Overall,afterdoing
substantialresearchwithdifferentformulas,theyconcludedthattwittercanbeusedto
predictelectionhowever,twittercannotbeusedtowinanelection.Inthearticle,they
comparedittotheartofpoling.Thepollcantellareaderorresearcherhowthecampaign
isgoingandhowthepublicisreactingtoit,butitwillnotchangeanyoneopinionsand
thatisthesamewaytheyviewtwitter.Manypeoplewilluseittostatetheiropinionsbut
itwontchangeanythingexcepttotellreportersthatthisuserisvotingforthiscandidate.
Also,thisarticleaddresseshowtheTeaPartyisverysurprisinglysuccessfulatusing
twittertoadvancetheiragenda.Asitstates,theTeaPartyislargelyunorganizedand
doesnthavemuchofastructurehowever,theyareabletoverysuccessfullyusetwitter
totheiradvantage.

Massicotte,C.(n.d.).CampaigningonTwitter:140Charactersatatime.RetrievedOctober23,
2015.
Thisarticleislessofascholarlyarticlethanmanyoftheotheronesbutitstilladdresses
howimportanttwitterisinthepoliticalgame.Foundonwinningelections.org,asite
specificallyforwinningelectionsregardlessofthepoliticalaffiliationofacandidate,this
articleisallaboutthedosanddontswhenitcomestohavingatwitterforsomeones
personalcampaign.Someofthedosaretobeinterestingandoriginal,tohavethe
candidatetweet,notastaffmember,andtofollowasmanyrelevantpeopleasthe
candidatecan.Someofthedontsaretonotfollowtoomanypeoplewhoarent
importanttothecampaign,dontlockthetwitter,anddonttweetanythingthatthe
candidatewouldbeembarrassedifitshoweduponthecoverpageofanewspaper
tomorrowmorning.
MetaxasP.T.,MustafarajE.,GayoAvelloD.(2011).How(Not)topredictelections.In
ProceedingsofPASSAT/SocialCom2011,2011IEEEThirdInternationalConferenceon
Privacy,Security,RiskandTrust(PASSAT)and2011IEEEThirdInternational
ConferenceonSocialComputing(SocialCom)
(pp.165171).IEEEComputerSociety,
LosAlamitos,CA.
Therearethreeauthorsofthisarticle.ThefirstisProfessorPanagiotisTakisMetaxas,a
professorofcomputersciencescurrentlyworkingmoreintothefieldofsocialmediaand
andcrowdsurfingonsocialplatforms.ThesecondisaProfessorattheUniversityof
Oviedo,whoworksinthecomputersciencesdepartmentbuthasrecentlybeendoing
studiesbasedaroundsocialmedia.ThethirdisProfessorEniMustafaraj,alsoaprofessor

inthecomputersciencesfield.Shehighlightsonherwebsitethatasciencemagazine
publishedProfessorMetaxasandherarticleentitledSocialMediaandtheElectionsin
2012.Thefirstandthirdauthorshavepublishedatleastonemorearticletogetherwhich
ismentionedbelow.
Thisisoneofthefewpapersthatcastsdoubtonthewidespreadopinionthatsocialmedia
canbeagoodtoolusedtopredictdifferentelectionsandotherthingswithinpolitics.
Afteranalyzingmanydifferentstudies,theauthorsconcludedthatanalyzingtwitterand
thethingsthatpeoplepostontheregivesonlyaslightlygreaterlikelihoodofpeople
beingabletopredictapoliticalelectionthanchancedoes.Thisessentiallymeansthat
everythingcanbepredictedtosomemeasurebasedoncommonsenseorpublicopinion
bynewssitesandusingtwittertopredictthisonlyhelpsbysuchalittlebitthatitis
practicallynegligible.
MisloveA.,LehmannS.,AhnY.Y.,OnnelaJ.P.,RosenquistJ.N.(2011,July1721).
UnderstandingthedemographicsofTwitterusers
.Paperpresentedatthe5th
InternationalAAAIConferenceonWeblogsandSocialMedia,Barcelona,Spain.
AlanMisloveisanassociateprofessoratNortheasternUniversityintheFieldof
ComputerandInformationScienceswhobecamerecentlyinterestedinstudyingsocial
mediasites.Socialmediasitesarepopularamongthegeneralpopulationand,becauseof
that,manyresearchersattempttousethemasresearchtogagethepublic'sopinion
however,mostsitesareprotectedbecauseofuserprivacybutTwitteristheexception,
allowinganyoneaccesstoover91%oftheprofilescreated.Beforeconductingresearch,
onemustunderstandthedemographicsofthegroupthatusesTwittertodetermineifitis

anaccuraterepresentationofthepublic.Itwouldbeidealtocomparepropertiessuchas
socioeconomicclass,educationlevel,andemploymentstatus,but,becauseofuser
confidentiality,researcherscanonlyseethepersonsname,location,andthetweetsthat
theysend.Throughthosethreefactors,researcherscoulddeterminehowmuchofthe
populationgeographicallyitcanrepresentbasedontheU.S.Census,howagenderbias
mightcomeintoplay,andhowrace/ethnicityisimportant.Afterlookingintoallaspects
oftwitter,itbecameediantthatTwittermostlyrepresentsthetheU.S.comparedtoother
countries,malescomparedtofemales,andtherace/ethnicityofmostTwitterusersarenot
arandomsamplingofthepopulation.
MorrisM.R.,CountsS.,RosewayA.,HoffA.,SchwarzJ.(2012).Tweetingisbelieving?:
Understandingmicroblogcredibilityperceptions.InPoltrockS.,etal.(Ed.),
ProceedingsoftheACM2012conferenceonComputerSupportedCooperativeWork
(pp.441450).NewYork,NY:ACM.
TheauthorsofthispieceareallprofessorsthatCarnegieMellonwheretheyworksinthe
fieldofHumanComputerinteractions.Thisarticlefocusesslightlylessonhowtheycan
predictelectionsandslightlymoreonhowmuchfaithpeoplehaveintwitterandthe
credibilityoftweets.Twitterinnaturesetsitselfuptheopportunityoffalseaccounts
projectingblatantlyincorrectinformationontothepublicanditisapparentlythejobof
thereadertofigureoutwhatittrueandwhatisnot.Peoplegenerallyarelesslikelyto
lookintotweetsaboutcelebritiesandtheirextravagantlylifeandmorelikelytoquestor
beskepticalofpoliticalinformationthattheyhaveyettohearfromanewssite.Theyare
alsomorelikelytobelievesomethingthatsomeonetheyfollowpostedratherthan

someonethatjustjustfoundthroughagoogleortwittersearch.Thereisacredibility
accountedwiththeamountofretweetsorfavoritesthatapersonoratweetreceives
however,accordingtothissurvey,thataccountslessinpeoplesmindsthanotherreasons
listedabove.
MustafarajE.,FinnS.,WhitlockC.,MetaxasP.T.(2011).Vocalminorityversussilentmajority:
Discoveringtheopinionsofthelongtail.In
ProceedingsofPASSAT/SocialCom2011,
2011IEEEThirdInternationalConferenceonPrivacy,Security,RiskandTrust
(PASSAT)and2011IEEEThirdInternationalConferenceonSocialComputing
(SocialCom)
,IEEEComputerSociety,LosAlamitos,CA,pp.103110.
Thisarticle,writtenbyProfessorEniMustafaraj,aprofessorinthecomputersciences
fieldwhohaspublishednumerouspapersonthissametopic,isthefirstonetotouchon
thegroupswithinthetwittercommunitythatareconsideredthesilentmajority.
Twitteristhefirstsocialmediaoutlettoallowpeopletoholdaconversationwithothers
inrealtime,whethertheyknowwhotheyretalkingtoornot.Justlikereallife,thereare
somepeoplewhodominateeveryconversationtheyareinandotherswhositbackand
addinacommenthereorthere.Thevocalminorityisconsideredthesmallgroupof
individuals,orcompanies,thatdominatetheconversation,,whetherotherpeopleagree
withwhattheyaresayingornot.TheSilentMajorityisthelargergroupofpeoplewho
justsitbackandaddinonecommentbutoftenrepresentmoreofamajorityview,even
thoughitisjustaminorpartoftheconversation.
OneexampleofthiswasfromrightafterObamasfirstvictorywiththeYes,WeCan
campaign.Sincehegainedsuchafollowingonsocialmediaaccountsandendedup

victorious,peoplerightfullyassociatedthetwoofthemasdependantupononeanother
andcopiedthatsamemethod.Inasenateelection,twocandidateswerereallycloseand
thenonemadeahugesocialmediacampaignandpushformorefollowersandendedup
winning.Inthiscase,eventhoughthemajoritywassilent,thevocalminoritywasableto
createsuchabuzzandsuchafollowingthatitoversteppedtheamountofphysicalpeople
tweeting.
MustafarajE.,MetaxasP.T.(2010).
Fromobscuritytoprominenceinminutes:Politicalspeech
andrealtimesearch
.PaperpresentedatWebSci10:ExtendingtheFrontiersofSociety
OnLine,April2627,2010,Raleigh,NC.
Thisarticlewasoriginallypublishedin2010bytwoprofessorsatWellesleyUniversity.
ThefirstisProfessorPanagiotisTakisMetaxas,aprofessorofcomputersciences
currentlyworkingmoreintothefieldofsocialmediaandandcrowdsurfingonsocial
platforms.ThesecondisProfessorEniMustafaraj,alsoaprofessorinthecomputer
sciencesfield.ShehighlightsonherwebsitethatasciencemagazinepublishedProfessor
MetaxasandherarticleentitledSocialMediaandtheElectionsin2012.
Thisisthefirstarticlethatreallytouchesonthetopicoftwitterbombing.Beforethe
popularityofsocialmediasitesbecamesovitaltothesuccessofanynewtopic(an
election,anewproduct,etc.),spamwasusedtogetamessageoutfastandeffectively
andtwitterbombingisessentiallythisgeneration'sversionofspam.Agroup,technically
unaffiliatedwithaspecificcampaign,createdtwitteraccountsthroughahackingwebsite.
Withinanhour,thisaccount,alongwiththeother10+madeatthattime,spamstwitter
userswithmessagesoflinksthatthatwouldnotnormallyfindthroughatypicalsearch

enginesfirstpage,whichveryfewpeoplelookbeyondthattogetanyinformationthey
need.Afterthis,thesuccessofthetwitterbombisdependantupontwothings:1)the
hopethattheytargetedtherightusersand2)thehopethatthoseusersretweetorpasson
thatmessageinanotherformat.
Thisdoesntalwaysworkout,butitisseenasagreatnew,technicallylegal,wasof
bombardingpeoplewithinformationthattheywouldnthavefoundontheirown.
Accordingtothestudy,thismethodworkssuccessfully,showingthatasingle
twitterbombedmessagecangetseenbyover61,000userswithinthefirstfewhoursof
itbeingposted.Therearenotreallydownsidestothisstrategy,butitssuccessisnot
alwaysguaranteed.Thiscouldbeviewedaspreachingtothechoir,meaningthatthe
groupofpeopletheysentthemessagetoeitherseeitandwouldhavealreadyseeniton
theirown,dontseeitbecausetheyarentactivelyontwitter,seeitbutdontretweetit,
orseeitandretweetittoanetworkthatwouldhaveseenitregardless.Regardlessofits
downsides,thisformofrelayinginformationgetsitouttothepublicquicklyandatno
cost,unlikeatelevisionorradioadvertisement.Thesetweettypicallyinvolveacallto
action,suchasaskingpeopletosignapetitionormaketheirvoiceheard,whichmakes
peoplewanttodosomething.
OConnorB.,BalasubramanyanR.,RoutledgeB.R.,SmithN.A.(2010,May2326).
From
Tweetstopolls:Linkingtextsentimenttopublicopiniontimeseries
.Paperpresentedat
the4thInternationalAAAIConferenceonWeblogsandSocialMedia,Washington,DC.
OConnorisaprofessoratUniversityofMassachusettsinAmherstwhereheworksinthe
computersocialsciencesfield.BalasubramanyanisagraduatestudentatCarnegie

Mellonwhereishestudyingmachinelearningandinformationextraction.Routledgeisa
professoratCarnegieMellonwhereheworksinthefinancedepartment.Smithisa
professorattheUniversityofWashingtonwherehestudiesandworksinthefieldof
ComputerSciencesandEngineering.
Intypicalcampaignsbeforethetimeofsocialmedia,pollingwastheonlyrealwaytoget
anaccuratefeelforthepublic'sopinion,butthisarticleprovesthatthatnolongerhasto
bethecase.BasedoninformationfromOpinionfinder,astudyofoveronebilliontweets
showsthatonecanadequatelygatherthepublic'sopinionquicklyand,forthemostpart,
accuratelybyusingkeywordstofindtweetstogagefeelings.Thebestwaytofindout
informationisbydoingthesesearchesassomethingimportantishappeningbecausethat
isthemajortimesthatpeoplearetweetingaboutit.Therearebillionsofresultsfollowing
anykeywordsearchandresearchersusedifferentwordstofindoutdifferentinformation:
Obamaforpresidentialapproval,EconomyandJobsforconsumerconfidence,etc.
Onedifficultyfoundinthisstudyisattemptingtotellthetonethatpeoplearewritingin
butthatwasfoundtobeanissuethatcouldbecombattedwiththerightformulas.Though
thisisnottrueinallofthecases,thestudyconcludedthat,withtherightresearchand
rightmeasures,twittercalculationscanbejustas,ifnotmoreeffective,thanpoles.
RatkiewiczJ.,ConoverM.,MeissM.,GonalvesB.,FlamminiA.,MenczerF.(2011,July
1721).
Detectingandtrackingpoliticalabuseinsocialmedia
.Paperpresentedatthe5th
InternationalAAAIConferenceonWeblogsandSocialMedia,Barcelona,Spain.
Thisstudy,writtenbyJacobRatkiewicz,acomputersoftwareengineeratgoogle,mainly
touchesonhowreliableorunreliableTwittercanbeandhowagoodpoliticiancoulduse

thistotheiradvantage.Socialmediaisallabouthowcatchysomethingcanbesothat
someonestopstopayattentiontoitwhilescrollingthroughentirescreensofuseless
information.Whilemanysourcesusetwittertogatherinformation,hoppingthatitis
reliable,manypeopleareputtingoutblatantlyincorrectstatementsjustforthereaction.
Unlikenewssites,therearenoanchors,writers,oreditorsonTwitter:nooneto
factcheckinformationso,aswrongasitmayseem,themostflashyversionofastory
makesheadlinesandmanypoliticianstakefulladvantageofthis.
OneofthewaysthatthisisdoneisthroughPoliticalAstroturfing.Astroturfingis
essentiallyattemptingtohidetheauthororpersonbehindanideatomakeitseemlikeit
iscomingfromthegrassrootsofanorganizationwhen,really,itiscomingfromastrong
andsuccessfulmarketingteam.ThisisdoneinthesamewaythataTwitterBombis:
creationofmanydifferentfakeusernamesquicklywithmassblastsofmessagestoas
manypeopleaspossible.Thiscanbeusedtohelpacandidatebygivingtheuserspositive
informationortohurtanothercandidatebyfeedingthemnegativityorsendingthemtoa
fakewebsite.Thisissimilartothewaythatspamissentviaemailhowever,whilethe
primaryobjectiveofaspammerisoftentopersuadeuserstoclickalink,someone
interestedinpromotinganastroturfmessagewantstoestablishafalsesenseofgroup
consensusaboutaparticularidea.Thisisusedtocreateafalseimpressionthatmore
peoplearetweetingandtalkingaboutacertaintopicthantheyactuallyare.
SkoricM.,PoorN.,AchananuparpP.L.,LimE.P.,JiangJ.(2012).Tweetsandvotes:Astudy
of

the2011Singaporegeneralelection.In
Proceedingsof45thHawaiiInternational
ConferenceonSystemsScience(HICSS452012)
,IEEEComputerSociety,Los
Alamitos,CA,pp.25832591.
TheauthorsrangefrombeingprofessorsinSingaporetoHongKongandtheirskillset
variesbut,overall,theyallareresearchesandstudiesofpublicopinionandtextdilution.
Thisstudy,likemanyothers,focusesonhowtwitterisabletopredictthepublic'sopinion
duringtheelectionseason.Itconcludedafterresearchthatthenamerecognitionworks
bestinthiscasescenarioascomparedtoreviewingthetweetsforthemeaningbehind
them.Themoreoftensomeonesnameismentionedduringanelection,thebettertheir
chancesareatwinning.However,thisstudyfoundthatitdependsonwhatthehottopics
areduringthatspecificelectionthatwilltargethowaccuratelysocialmediawebsitescan
predictsuccessorfailurerates.Whenthetopichassomethingtodowithsocialmedia,
peoplearemoreactiveinrespondingtoitonasiteliketwitterbecausemanyofthe
peopleontwitterarenewervotersandhaveopinionsonthatcomparedtoother
seeminglymoreboringtopics.Also,whenanelectioniscloseandcompetitionistight,
peoplearemoreactiveonsocialmedia,causingthelikelihoodofitbeingableto
successfullypredicttheoutcometogoup.
Thisarticlealsoaddressesthreemajorpointswhenitcomestopeoplewhoclaimthat
twittercanbeusedsuccessfullyasapredictivemeasure.Thefirstpointwasthatthere
needstobeaclearlydefinedlogarithmwhich,accordingtothis,thererarelyis.The
secondwasthatitneedstotakeintoaccountthatthepartofthevotingpopulationthat
regularlyusestwitterisverysmallcomparedtothevotingcommunityasawholeand

thosestudiesneedtoaccountforthatsomehow.Thethirdpointwassimplethatitneeds
tobeexplainable.
Sullivan,S.(2013,August14).HowTwittercouldpredictelectionsinoneeyecatching
study.
RetrievedOctober7,2015.
TheauthorofthisarticlebeganworkingatHotlineOnCall(NationalJournalsHotline
politicalblog)andatABCNewsandJapanPublicBroadcastingaftermajoringin
philosophyatHamiltonCollege.In2012,heswitchedfromthosejobstobeingareporter
atTheWashingtonPostcoveringtheinsandoutsofpoliticalelectionsandcampaigns.
Inthisarticle,heattemptstoexplainhow,whilesometimesthesocialmediapresence,
specificallytwitter,canpredictanelection,thatisntalwaysthecase.Onthelargescale,
thereisacorrelationbetweenthenumberoftweetsmentioningaspecificnameandtheir
likelihoodtowin,butthatdoesntworkforeverycandidateeverytime.Afterreading
over537milliontweetsinthemonthsleadinguptothepresidentialelection,theycome
totheconclusionthat,mostofthetime,anypublicityisgoodpublicity.
BasedonastudybyfourstudentsatIndianaUniversity,theamountacandidate'snameis
mentionedontwittersometimesrelatestohowlikelytheirchancesareofasuccessful
electionday.Thearticlereportsthatinrecentstudies,evennegativepublicityleadstoa
higherchanceofgettingelected.Inthepast,typicallytwitterresponsesfrommajor
politicaleventssuchasdebatestendtobemainlynegatively,seeminglyhurtinga
candidate'scampaignhowever,thisarticlestatesthatthepurenumberoftimestheir

namecomesup,inagoodorabadway,correspondsinapositivemannertothemgetting
elected.
Thisisnotalwaysthecase,though.Towardsthebottomofthearticle,thereisachartthat
showshowmucheachcandidatewastalkedaboutduringthe2012presidentialelection
andthesocialmediatalleyswerenotthesameaswhowaselected.RonPaul,acandidate
whodidnotmakeittobeingademocraticorrepublicannominee,wasbroughtupon
twittermoreoftenthanBarackObamaandMittRomneycombined.Hedidenduplosing
therepublicannomination,andthiscouldhavebeenforanumberofreasons,including
thathewasrunningasarepublicancandidatewithaprolife,antiwaragenda.Regardless
ofthereasonsthathelost,hisnameandopinionsweresopopularinthe2012election
thatsocialmediawouldhavepredictedthathewouldwintheentireelectionwithout
question.Thisshowsthat,eventhoughBarackObamaandMittRomneywerenumbers
twoandthreeonthelistonmentions,twitterandothersocialmediaplatformscannot
accuratelypredictelectionsonehundredpercentofthetime.
TjongKimSangE.,BosJ.(2012,April2327).
Predictingthe2011DutchSenateelection
results
withTwitter
.Paperpresentedatthe13thConferenceoftheEuropeanChapterofthe
AssociationforComputationalLinguistics.Avignon,France.
Thisarticle,writtenby
ErikTjongKimSang,apostdoctoralresearcherworkingatthe
MeertensInstitute
inAmsterdam,TheNetherlands,Europe.
startsoutalittlebit
differentlyasitdoubtstheabilityforthepollsbeingusedcurrentlytocollecttheright
databutexpressesthat,withalittlebitoftweaking,therightformulacanbefoundand

theelectionpredictionpoweroftwittercanbejustasusefulasnormalpollingmeasures.
ThisessentiallyrecreatestheexperimentdonebyTumasjanin2010testingtheresultsof
the2009Germanelection.Theygatheredtweetsbysearchingforkeywordsandthen
narrowingitdownbasedonlanguageandphrasing.Afterdoingresearching,theycame
upwiththeconclusionthat,giventhecurrentsystemandtheirslightlyalteredsystem,
countingtweetscanassistinpredictionelectionshowever,theywerenotcompletely
satisfiedwiththeresults.Onereasonisbecausetheyplayedwiththenumberstoaccount
forthedifferenceindemographicsbetweenthetwitterusersandtheactualvotersinthe
election.Theyalsousedspecificnumberoftweetsasanindicatorsbut,associalmedia
platformsbecomemoreandmorepopular,thismethodofcountingwillnolongerwork
becauseallpartieswillhaveroughlythesameamountoftweets.