John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103

11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell

Moneyball: How the Runt of the Litter Survives

Its an age old problem. Those with the most money are typically more successful in most
situations such as politics or business. The world of professional sports world isnt immune to
the influence of money either. The teams with the most money usually perform the best, simply
because they have the funds to buy the most talented players. For example, the most winningest
team in baseball history has been the New York Yankees. Theyre total salary for the 2015
season was $217,758,571, and they usually have the highest total salary in all of baseball. If we
look at soccer, the same rules apply, even though their wealth is based more on the transfer
budget, or acquiring players. In the Barclays Premier League, the team at the top of the table
right now is Manchester City. They also happen to have the highest transfer budget in the
premier league at the moment. So, with this kind of dominance in both sports, how are the poorer
teams able to compete?
In the movie Moneyball, Billy Beane, the General Manager for the Oakland Athletics,
tasked himself with explaining the problem to his scouts, asking over and over again, Whats
the problem?. The scouts thought that the problem was that they couldnt replace the three key
players that they had lost: Jason Isringhausen, Johnny Damon, and Jason Giambi. The fact of the
matter was, that they had drafted and developed these players for much cheaper than they sold
them for, so, although they made a profit, they couldnt afford anyone that was as talented for as
cheap as they were. Beane makes the argument as follows, There are rich teams and there are

John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103
11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell
poor teams; then theres fifty feet of crap, and then theres us. We are the last dog to the bowl.
What happens to the runt of the litter? He dies. If we try to play like the Yankees in here, we will
lose to the Yankees out there. The scouts dont think that thats the best course of action overall,
they say that there are intangibles that only baseball people can understand. They think that they
should rely on intuition and experience, or a more subjective approach as opposed to a more
objective approach based in numbers, using the principle known as Sabermetrics.
Sabermetrics was a concept developed by a man named Bill James. It was a theory, to put
simply, that gave players a qualitative value for scouting purposes instead of a qualitative one.
However, his theories were not accepted by most of the baseball community because he wasnt a
part of their society of sorts. He wasnt a baseball guy, he was a security guard, so they
deemed his information unreliable. Professional baseball scouts typically look for a few different
qualitative values on each player they sign. For example, they try to look at the potential of a
player, but the fact of the matter is, you cannot predict how talented a player is going to be based
upon how good his swing looks, or if he fields well in a practice situation. Signing new players
right out of high school without a proof of concept or evidence that he can play in the big
leagues. Once he plays minor-league baseball and gets some at-bats under his belt, an evaluation
of the players talent can be made. At that point, the potential argument shouldnt hold as
much weight, so a more logical approach should be taken. He shouldnt be looked at as nothing
but a number, but he also shouldnt be able to be condemned because of the way he looks.
Players are constantly being undervalued simply because of how they look, or if big names in
baseball labeled them as lazy, or a problem in the clubhouse, or perhaps even just flat-out

John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103
11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell
untalented. For example, Sam Bradford was a relief pitcher that was picked up by the Athletics
for a negligible $336,000, but compared to the other pitchers in bullpens across the MLB he was
far and away the most effective given his price, and the reason he was at such a low price? He
threw submarine style, which is very rare for a pitcher to do as opposed to the normal overarm or
three-quarter style. Regardless of this, he was one of the most cost-effective players in baseball,
for the most cost-effective team in baseball.
The cost effectiveness of a team is measured by the amount of money spent per win. A
theory behind Moneyball is that teams shouldnt be buying in terms of players, but they should
be buying in terms of wins. In order to buy wins, a team needs to buy runs. These runs can be
derived from statistics that have a more lasting impact than Homeruns and Runs Batted In
(RBIs). For example, On-Base-Percentage is a far more accurate statistic to base a decision on.
There are only a handful of players that hit more than 30 Homeruns and 100 RBIs in Major
League Baseball, and those players are going to cost more than a player who would have the
same On-Base-Percentage, and effectively does the same job. The average amount of At-bats for
a starting player per season is about 600, so if someone had 30 homeruns, and 100 RBIs, they
would have 130 guaranteed runs, but that player would most likely be in the range of 15-20
million dollars. If someone had an On-Base-Percentage of .375 which means that out of 600 at
bats, the player got on base 225 times, so that is a potential 225 runs, but given that most teams
under value this statistic, the players that are only boasting the On-Base Percentage plus 8
homeruns and 40 RBIs will be a much cheaper acquisition and would be much more costeffective.

John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103
11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell
Sabermetrics focuses on important statistics that managers undervalue, and causes them to
undervalue the players themselves. OBP covers several statistics under its umbrella, such as walks,
pitches per at-bat, hits, et cetera. However, teams really shouldnt be looking at a players batting
average when it comes to acquiring players, they should be looking at slugging percentage. The
theory behind it is that slugging percentages reveal that although some hitters will hit a line drive
into the outfield, the outfielder could make a good play, and he would be out. That would cause
him to be 0-1 for the night at that point, but he still made good contact with solid power. If another
player hit a blooper into the outfield that dropped in for a single, that wouldnt be an accurate
representation of the players actual hitting capability, but he would be counted as a misleading
1-1. Sabermetrics is used to cut through all subjective points of view, and strip it down the base
numbers. Given that it has worked extremely well when executed properly, such as when the
Oakland As won 20 games in a row to break the record for a single season winning streak. Or,
after the As amazing season, the Boston Red Sox hired Bill James as a consultant because at that
point they were just thinking, enough is enough, we just want our championship. With all of this
success in baseball, it begs the question of not only whether or not the theory of Sabermetrics is
applicable to other sports, but how effective the theory would hold up to be against the standard
practices of scouting that are seen today.
There is the debate of whether or not the principles of Moneyball can be used for other
sports such as soccer or basketball. Basketball wouldnt make sense, given that they have a salary
cap of a certain amount, so the teams are put under the same constraints. Also, basketball teams
have half of the amount of players that baseball has to worry about, given the 25 baseball players

John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103
11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell
on a roster and the 12 basketball players on a roster. Consequentially, irrelevant bench players
make much more money in basketball. Soccer, on the other hand, is very similar to baseball in the
way that there is not a cap in the amount of money a team can spend in acquiring players. Even in
the Barclays Premier League, you have budgets that are somewhere from 5-10 million dollars,
and then you have Man City, a team thats transfer budget sums up to about 120 million dollars.
The need for Moneyball in soccer is much greater in the way that they do have youth academies
that play with the club, but they also dont have a draft in any other country besides the United
States. The need is there, but the only question is if the possibility of Moneyball in soccer today is
an applicable one.
Soccer is not a stop-and-go sport like baseball, so there are other variables to take into
account when selecting a player, such as opportunities created per game, pass accuracy, average
match rating, et cetera. However, the two most important statistics to base a decision off of are the
distance the player has ran, and the amount of intensive runs the player has made. This is derived
from the theory that, generally speaking, if a team works harder than another team and are about
even on the talent spectrum, then they are going to win that game. People are much too concerned
with being flashy for their own good, so it causes them to undervalue the not as flashy players.
Soccer for all intents and purposes is a team sport, and relies upon how well the team
meshes or how well the team plays together. In order for that to happen you see a base formula for
a team to be built around. Starting off, they want a goalkeeper at the back who is a leader, and
essentially gets the job done. The back line needs to be able to play the entire game and almost be

John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103
11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell
a single mind when it comes to playing the game. Specifically, the center backs need to be stronger
than the opposing teams attackers and they need to be able to keep up with them speed-wise as
well. The outside backs need to be able to run up and down the length of the pitch to not only
contain the width of the play, but provide support for the attacks as well. The midfields job is to
maintain possession of the ball and the game in its entirety. This goes along with winning 50/50
balls, keeping the formation compact when defending and spread out when attacking, and
controlling the majority of the game. In a typical 4-4-2 formation (four defenders, four midfielders,
and 2 strikers) there are 2 speedy wingers who need to run the length of the field, but lean a little
more towards the attacking side. The two central midfielders can use of two techniques. The first
technique is to switch the two midfielders between an attacking midfielder and defensive
midfielder, one going up while the other is back according to the ebb and flow of the game. The
other method being assigning an attacking midfielder and a defensive midfielder to those positions.
The usual defensive mid being a ball winner and someone who controls the midfield. The attacking
mid being a playmaker who is capable of changing the game with a well-played ball through the
defense. The last two players are the strikers which need to complement each other, meaning that
you need to have one to make runs and one to be your target man of sorts; however, both of these
players need to play with intensity and create pressure for the opposing teams defensive players.
The fact of the matter is that this wont be effective unless every player is putting forth the
maximum effort. There are teams in professional soccer that are adapting to this way of playing,
and for some it has worked very well.

John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103
11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell
In the Barclays Premier League, the typical winning teams are Manchester United,
Manchester City, Chelsea, or even Arsenal. None of those are leading the league right now. The
team that is leading is Leicester City. In the 2014-2015 season, out of the twenty teams on the
premier league, they had the second lowest spent in wages throughout the year at 36.6 million
pounds. This year they are the number one team in the premier league, and they werent even in
the league until last year. Chelseas wage bill in the same season was 192.7 million pounds. This
season, Chelsea is 15th place in the premier league, and is going to be in danger of relegation if
they dont change something soon. This year, the leading scorer in the Barclays is Jamie Vardy,
who at the moment has 14 goals in 15 games, and broke the record for consecutive games with a
goal. In the past, Vardy had always been a prolific scorer, but in the English leagues that were
below the Premier League. So, teams around the world didnt really see him as a good buy given
that he is now 28 years old, and thats considered the age where a striker typically is in his prime.
So, given his status, he was bought by Leicester City for a whopping 1 million pounds. To put
it into terms with some of the other strikers in the premier league, Radamel Falcao was bought by
Manchester United from AC Monaco for 51 million pounds, he played one season for them and
appeared in 26 games in all competitions. He scored 4 goals in all of these, and was one of the
biggest flops in professional soccer to date. Granted he performed extraordinarily well for his
original club, Atletico Madrid, but add a couple of years and introduce him to a brand new team
and system and you find a striker that is not going to be performing nearly as well as he should
have for his exorbitant fee. More often than not, clubs are going to overpay for players, and
managers are going to keep mismanaging teams in the way of cost-effectiveness.

John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103
11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell
If we look at Vardys playstyle, he is simply a hard worker that can strike the ball with both
feet, and just has an attacking mind in general. He wants to score, which cant be said for all
strikers. The rest of the Leicester team understands that they need to model their effort after
Vardys if they want to succeed, and so far this season they have. They are outplaying every team
in the Barclays and have the most goals scored in league play. This is a direct result of team
chemistry and team effort as a whole. The team has adopted the idea of working hard because they
need to. They do not have the funds that the other teams have, and aside from someone who is a
Leicester City fan or an avid FIFA Ultimate Team player, they probably couldnt name any players
from this team aside from Vardy. Even if you could name some players, one wouldnt look twice
at an unknown center attacking mid from Algeria named Riyad Mahrez with next to no experience
or accolades predating his signing, but at the 15 game mark he has a remarkably high average
match rating of 8.33, which is actually the second highest in the world to Neymar who is having
the best season of his career for Barcelona. The difference between Neymar and Mahrez besides
the rating is that Neymar was sold to Barcelona for 75 million pounds and Mahrez was sold to
Leicester for 500 thousand euros. Quite a large difference in price for such a small difference in
the way of results.
The world of sports is always going to be, for all intents and purposes, a business.
People arent going to pay to see players that they dont know or have a vested interest in, unless
that team is doing well. The lower income teams; however, dont have the money to purchase these
players, so they need to find a way to recreate them through statistics in order to form the best
team possible while using the money that they have. There is no such thing as a perfect solution

John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103
11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell
when it comes to a problem such as this, but Sabermetrics is the best bet for the runt of the litter
to survive.
Response to markup: I essentially added to the paper as a whole, the first draft that I turned
in was basically a foundation for the rest of my paper. The draft I turned in was lacking the whole
soccer aspect of it because I really didnt put as much time into it as I should have. I also wasnt
aware of the draft needing a work cited page, but this paper has all of that at the end of the essay.
Aside from little spelling mistakes, I didnt really change much else in the way of citing in the
paper itself for the reason that at this moment in time this theory is very much a developing science
that has given itself more to speculation. I wanted to make it thorough, but not to a point that the
paper would be lending itself as a stat chart as opposed to an analysis and almost an argument.

John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103
11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell

"Football Statistics. Football Live Scores. WhoScored.com." Football Statistics Football.

Live Scores WhoScored.com. N.p., 2015. Web. 07 Dec. 2015.
Hamiltin, Howard. "Soccermetrics Research, LLC." Soccermetrics Research LLC. N.p.,
Jan. 2010. Web. 20 Oct. 2015.
Kim, Oliver W. "The Moneyball Myth. Opinion. The Harvard Crimson."The Moneyball
Myth. The Harvard Crimson, 10 Mar. 2014. Web. 20 Oct. 2015.
Rishe, Patrick. "Did Moneyball Strike Again in Oakland? The Most and Least CostEffective Baseball Teams of 2012." Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 4 Oct. 2012. Web. 19 Oct. 2015.
Weimar, D, and P Wicker. "Moneyball Revisited: Effort and Team Performance in
Professional Soccer." Journal of Sports Economics. (2014). Print.

John Patrick O'Donnell

Honors UWRT 1103
11/10/15
Professor Malcolm Campbell