ROCK YOU LIKE A HURRICANE

Kyle Wehrenberg
CNRE FYE 1234
Stauffer
11/9/2015

It is inherent that climate change is becoming of growing concern. However, what role might
climate change impose on the intensity and frequency of North Atlantic cyclones? In other words, are
hurricanes becoming man-made monsters? As it turns out, these questions have the scientific research
community divided. Some researchers say that climate change is leading to more intense and frequent
hurricanes, while others refute that there is no relation. Whether a relation between climate change and
increased hurricane activity, as well as strength, exists, for the most part, I will be focusing on the issue of
global climate change as a whole along with the human and natural causes. I will also be examining the
economic and environmental impacts of hurricanes, especially those of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane
Sandy. I will then offer possible solutions as to solving the issues of climate change as well as decreasing
the impact of hurricanes.
When it comes to dealing with climate change and whether it influences hurricane strength and
activity, I feel that it is necessary to point out and distinguish between the human and natural causes of
climate change. The ocean current plays a significant role as one of the natural causes of climate change
(Causes of Climate Change, n.d.). A particular interaction between the ocean current and the
atmosphere that plays a role in hurricane formation is known as the El Nio (Causes of Climate
Change, n.d.). El Nios, which occur every two to six years, play a large part in determining the
concentration of carbon dioxide, depending on the circulation of the ocean currents (Causes of Climate
Change, n.d.). Volcanic eruptions can also influence climatic patterns by spewing large volumes of
sulphur dioxide, water vapor, dust, and ash into the atmosphere (Causes of Climate Change, n.d.). All
of these particles act together to increase planetary reflectivity, which cause a cooling of the atmosphere
(Causes of Climate Change, n.d.). Variations in the output of the suns energy also influences the
climate (Causes of Climate Change, n.d.). While the suns energy output seems constant from day to
day, small increments can cause the climate to change over an extended period of time (Causes of
Climate Change, n.d.). Human causes definitely play a larger role in influencing climate change.
Deforestation can be classified as a major contributor to the causes of climate change. Rainforests play a

crucial role in our world, as they make up a delicate part of the ecosystem that has taken millions of years
to grow (Causes of Climate Change, n.d.). Every year, rainforests help absorb twenty percent of manmade carbon dioxide emissions (Causes of Climate Change, n.d.). Since trees help absorb carbon
dioxide and convert it to carbon during the process of photosynthesis, the removal of forests means more
carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere (Causes of Climate Change, n.d.). The Industrial Revolution
was also a turning point in the emergence of climate change. The large scale use of burning fossil fuels
for industrial activities began in the 19th century, and has been increasing ever since (Causes of Climate
Change, n.d.). Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas, have seen an increase in use for supplying
most of the energy needs, such as running vehicles and generating electricity (Causes of Climate
Change, n.d.).
Hurricanes are known for causing significant economic and environmental impacts on societies,
especially those of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Hurricane Katrina in particular has been the
most expensive and worst natural disaster in the history of the United States (Hurricane Katrina, n.d.).
Even though it was the sixth strongest overall, where it made landfall and the human geography of the
region is what made it so deadly (Hurricane Katrina, n.d.). It is estimated that Hurricane Katrina
caused at least $150 billion worth of damage in both Louisiana and Mississippi and 1.3 million acres of
forested land were decimated, costing around $5 billion (Hurricane Katrina, n.d.). Substantial beach
erosion was caused by the storm surges and coastal areas in general were completely devastated
(Hurricane Katrina, n.d.). The US Geological Survey estimated that Hurricane Katrina transformed 217
square miles of land, which were breeding grounds for marine mammals, brown pelicans, and turtles, into
water (Hurricane Katrina, n.d.). Sixteen National Wildlife Refuges were forced to close due to
extensive damage caused by Hurricane Katrina (Hurricane Katrina, n.d.). Hurricane Sandy also had
significant environmental and economic impacts on the communities that it hit, particularly those of the
East Coast. Hurricane Sandy cause approximately $50 billion in property damage spanning across eight
states (Manuel 2013). Sandy also destroyed an estimated 375,000 homes and caused 234 deaths (Manuel

2013). Sandy had such an economic impact that the stock market had its first unscheduled closure since
the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks (Walter 2012). Hurricane Sandy caused short term and long term
environmental impacts (Manuel 2013). Water pollution became a major concern when the storm knocked
out power to 80 sewage treatment facilities (Manuel 2013). As a result, raw sewage began to flow into
nearby bays, causing New Jersey to issue advisories for public recreational waters and close shellfish
waters that were contaminated by the sewage (Manuel 2013). Mold growth became of significant
concern for long term effects imposed on homeowners (Manuel 2013).
The issue as to whether or not climate change is directly related to increased hurricane strength
and activity is cloudy. Thomas Knutson, along with other notable researchers such as Kerry Emanuel and
Chris Landsea, researched the relationship between tropical cyclones and climate change. They explain
that The challenge for climate change detection and attribution research with regard to tropical cyclones
is to determine whether an observed change in tropical cyclone activity exceeds the variability expected
through natural causes, and to attribute significant changes to specific climate forcings, such as
greenhouse gases or aerosols.(Knutson et al. 2010). They found that in most areas of tropical cyclone
formation, sea surface temperatures have increased by several tenths of a degree Celsius in the past
several decades (Knutson et al. 2010). However, by further examining the correlation between warmer
sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone intensity and frequency, they conclude that further
research is strongly recommended to enhance climate-relevant observations, theory and modelling of
tropical cyclones and related regional climate changes. (Knutson et al. 2010). Robert Mendelsohn, along
with Kerry Emanuel, examine the impact of climate change on global tropic cyclone damage. They,
along with others, conclude that the probability distribution of tropical cyclone damage both before and
after climate change is quite skewed (Mendelsohn et al. 2012). Patrick Michaels, along with other
scientists, researched the relationship between sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the
Atlantic basin. Their research yielded no relationship between storm intensity and SST (Michaels et al.
2005). However, their final conclusion was that rising SST will act to increase the percentage of major

hurricanes but not change the ultimate intensity of these storm systems. (Michaels et al. 2005). Tido
Semmler, along with other researchers, essentially ask the question Can we expect a higher frequency of
strong tropical and extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic in a warming climate? They go on to
refer to the work of past studies, such as those of Landsea and Emanuel, and conclude that To conduct a
prediction using consistent methods, regional ensemble simulations using different general circulation
model projections as driving data could be performed. (Semmler et al. 2008). Kevin Walsh helps
suggest some approaches as to alleviate the uncertainty in tropical cyclones and climate change (Walsh
2004). Walsh makes the conclusion that There is as yet no convincing evidence in the observed record
of changes in tropical cyclone behavior that can be ascribed to global warming. (Walsh 2004).
However, by around 2050, Walsh mentions that in a warmer world, there is likely to be some increases in
tropical cyclone intensities (Walsh 2004). Kevin Trenberth also talks about the uncertainty in hurricanes
and global warming. He asks Can a trend in hurricane activity in the North Atlantic be detected? and
Can any such trend be attributed to human activity? (Trenberth 2005). Trenberth offers other factors
besides sea surface temperatures that influence the increase in hurricane activity, such as reduced vertical
wind shear over the central North Atlantic (Trenberth 2005). The vortex of a hurricane has trouble
forming when there are greater amounts of wind shear present (Trenberth 2005). He concludes that The
key scientific question is not whether there is a trend in hurricane numbers, but rather how hurricanes are
changing. (Trenberth 2005). Quirin Schiermeier, based on the research of other scientists, makes the
conclusion that hurricane link to climate change is hazy. (Schiermeier 2005). Schiermeier also asserts
that Many of the arguments arise because there are insufficient data. (Schiermeier 2005).
I have explored three possible solutions to dealing with climate change, as well as dealing with
the intensity of hurricanes, one of which was attempted from 1962-1983. Project Stormfury was an
attempt to minimize the intensity of tropical cyclones by artificially seeding the eyewall with silver iodide
(Schmidt 2004). The hypothesis was that artificially seeding the eyewall with silver iodide would cause
the super cooled water to freeze, thereby disrupting the inner structure of the hurricane (Schmidt 2004).

Project Stormfury ended up being a complete failure in the sense of weakening the destructiveness of the
hurricanes, but helped pave the way for the hurricane research of the future (Schmidt 2004). A solution to
solve the issue of climate change was reforestation. However, I found this solution to be beneficial only
in the long run, since it takes a long time for trees to mature and reach the status of absorbing enough
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in order to have a considerable change. The final solution that I
believe to be the best when dealing with the strength of hurricanes is to continue funding research to find
better ways to prepare for and lessen the damage of hurricanes, such as constructing better levy systems.

Citations
CIC, 8020. n.d. Causes of climate change. <http://www.climatechangechallenge.org/Resource%20Centre/ClimateChange/3-what_causes_climate_change.htm>. Accessed 9 Nov 2015.
Hurricane Katrina. n.d. <http://www.coolgeography.co.uk/Alevel/AQA/Year%2013/Weather%20and%20climate/Hurricanes/Hurricane_Katrina.htm>. Accessed 9 Nov 2015.
Knutson , T., J. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. Kossin , A. K. Srivastava , and M.
Sugi . 2010. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience 3:157163. Nature Publishing Group.
Manuel, J. 2013. The Long Road to recovery: Environmental health impacts of hurricane sandy. Environmental
Health Perspectives 121:a152a159. Environmental Health Perspectives.
Mendelsohn, R., K. Emanuel, S. Chonabayashi, and L. Bakkensen. 2012. The impact of climate change on global
tropical cyclone damage. Nature Climate Change 2:205209. Nature Publishing Group.
Michaels, P. J., P. C. Knappenberger, and R. E. Davis. 2006. Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the
Atlantic basin. Geophysical Research Letters 33. American Geophysical Union.
Schiermeier, Q. 2005. Hurricane link to climate change is hazy. Nature 437:461.
Schmidt, R. 2004. Weather warfare.
<http://www.thelivingmoon.com/45jack_files/03files/Project_Stormfury_NOAA.html>. Accessed 9 Nov 2015.
Semmler, T., S. Varghese, R. McGrath, P. Nolan, S. Wang, P. Lynch, and C. O. Dowd. 2008. Regional climate model
simulations of North Atlantic cyclones: frequency and intensity changes. Climate Research 36:116. Inter-Research
Science Center.
Trenberth, K. 2005. Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming. Science 308:17531754.
Walsh, K. 2004. Tropical cyclones and climate change: unresolved issues. Climate Research 27:7783. InterResearch Science Center.
Walter, L. 2012. Hurricane sandys impact on economic loss and the construction industry. EHS Today.

Solar
Cycles

Burning
Fossil Fuels

Industrial
Revolution

Volcanic
Activity

Natural Causes

Human Causes

Deforestation
Global Climate
Change

El Nino

Warmer Sea
Surface
Temps.
Increased
Hurricane
Activity/Strength

Economic
Impacts

Environmental
Impacts

Solutions

Artificial
Seeding with
Silver Iodide

Fossil Fuel
Regulations

Reforestation