Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
Topics
Energyconsumption&petroleumsplace
SizeofU.S.industry
Majorrefiners
Petroleumproducts
Basicpetroleumeconomics
Trendsforcrudeoil&gasolineprices
Whendorefinersmakemoney?
GeneralizedPetroleumRefinery
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
GrowthofU.S.EnergyConsumption
120
15
EnergyConsumed(Quad=10 BTU)
100
80
Wood
HydroelectricPower
NuclearElectricPower
60
Coal
NaturalGas
Petroleum
40
20
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Source:18501949,EnergyPerspectives:APresentationofMajorEnergyandEnergyRelatedData,U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,
1975;19502010,AnnualEnergyReview2011,Table1.3.
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
EnergyMarketsAreInterconnected
https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov/news/energy/energy.html
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
PetroleumPathway
Crude Production
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
Crude Transportation
Retail Distribution
Crude Refining
Consumer Use
World&U.S.RefiningCapacity
AsiaPacificrefiningprimedforcapacitygrowth,Oil&GasJournal,pp34
45,Dec.1,2014
EIA,Jan.1,2015database,publishedJune2015
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
Number&CapacityofWorld&U.S.Refineries
AsiaPacificrefiningprimedforcapacitygrowth,Oil&GasJournal,pp3445,Dec.
1,2014
Source:
EIA,Jan.1,2015database,publishedJune2015
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_cap1_dcu_nus_a.htm
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
LocationsofU.S.Refineries
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7170
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
IndividualU.S.RefinerySizes 10Largest&Selected10Small
EIA,Jan.1,2015database,publishedJune2015
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
10
IndividualU.S.RefinerySizes 10Largest&Selected10Small
EIA,Jan.1,2015database,publishedJune2015
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
11
WorldsLargestRefineries
AsiaPacificrefiningprimedforcapacitygrowth,Oil&GasJournal,pp34
45,Dec.1,2014
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
12
RecentchangestotheslateofUSrefineries
Motivacompleted$10billionJVexpansionin2013
Increasedto600,000bpdcapacity,nowlargestinUS
Operatingproblemscausednearimmediateshutdownofnewcrudedistillationtrain
Plantoexportrefinedproducts
Changesinownership
MarathonPetroleumpurchasedBPs460,000bpdTexasCity(Feb.2013) $589Mtotal,$1.4Binventory
ParRefiningpurchasedTesoros94,000bpdHawaiirefinery(Sept.2013)
Tesorowasgoingtoconverttostorageterminal.Parwillkeepopen.
PBFEnergytoacquireChalmetteLA189,00bpdrefineryfromExxonMobil/PdVSA (announcedJune2015)
Changesinoperations
TesorotoshutdownCarson,CAsFCCUin2017&integrateintoadjacentWilmingtonrefinery
MotivamayshutdownConvent,LAFCCby2016 wouldshiftfocustodiesel
Couldbuildnewcrudeunit,ROSEunits,oraddcoker
FlintHillsceasedoilprocessingatits85,000bpdNorthPolerefinery(May2014)
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
13
NewGrassRootsRefineriesinU.S.?
Lastcomplex grassrootsrefineryinU.S.wasMarathonPetroleumsGaryville,LA,refinery
openedin1977
OriginalCapacity
CurrentOwner
Bbl/cd
2014Capacity
Bbl/cd
Type
Interline
Resources
3,000
Antelope
Refining
3,800
Simple
Goodway
PetroStar
PetroSource
PetroStar
4,100
26,300
7,000
6,700
Goodway
PetroStar
Foreland
PetroStar
4,100
55,000
2,000
19,700
Simple
Simple
Simple
Simple
PrudhoeBay,AK ARCO
12,000
ConocoPhillips
15,000
Simple
1982
1980
1979
1979
Thomas,OK
Wilmington,CA
Vicksburg,MS
NorthSlope,AK
OKRefining
Huntway
Ergon
ARCO
10,700
5,400
10,000
13,000
Ventura
Valero
Ergon
BPExp AK
12,000
6,300
23,000
10,500
Simple
Simple
Simple
Simple
1978
1978
NorthPole,AK
EarthResources
22,600
FlintHills
126,535
Simple
1977
1978
LakeCharles,LA
Calcasieu
6,500
Calcasieu
78,000
Simple
1976
1976
1977
1977
Garyville,LA
Marathon
KrotzSprings,LA GoldKing
200,000
5,000
Marathon
Alon
522,000
80,000
Complex
Complex
1975
1975
CorpusChristi,TX Saber
15,000
Valero
200,000
Complex
YearBuilt
FirstOperated
Location
OriginalOwner
2008
2008
Douglas,WY
1998
1993
1991
1986
1998
1993
1992
1987
Atmore,AL
Valdez,AK
Ely,NV
NorthPole,AK
1985
1986
1981
1979
1978
1978
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=29&t=6
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
14
NewGrassRootsRefineriesinU.S.?
Simplerefineriesareneartightoil
production
KinderMorgan,GalenaPark,TX 50,000bpd
(condensatesplitter)
StartedupApril2015
DakotaPrairieRefinery 20,000bpdBakken
crudetoppingunitwithdieselhydrotreating
Commencedoperations fullproduction
&dieselsalesasofJune2015
Reported$430millioncost
MHACleanFuelsRefinery,15,000bpd
refineryontheFortBertholdIndian
ReservationnearMakoti,ND
Complexrefineries 2plannedinmid
2000snolongeractiveprojects
HyperionEnergyCenter,$10billion,400,000
bpdrefinerynearUnionCounty,SD
WouldincludePetcoke IGCCforpower&
hydrogen
AirpermitapplicationsexpiredMarch
2013&releasedoptionsonlandMay
2013
ArizonaCleanFuelsYuma,LLC,150,000bpd
refinerynearYuma,AZ
NopressreleasessinceMarch2009
2002basiswassyn crudefromCanadian
oilsands changedtoBakkencrudein
2007
GroundbrokenMay2013.PhaseI
constructionunderwayasofMay2015.
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August18,2015
15
NelsonsComplexityFactor
EDC:EquivalentDistillationCapacity
Measureofdownstreamconversioncapacitytotheinitialdistillation
DevelopedbyNelson(1960)toquantifyrelativecostsofrefiningprocesses
ReflectscomplexityofISBL,noOSBLconsiderations
Refineriestoprocessheavysourcrudestypicallyhavehighercomplexityfactors
Ref:http://www.ril.com/downloads/pdf/business_petroleum_refiningmktg_lc_ncf.pdf
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
16
NelsonsComplexityFactor
EIA,Jan.1,2015database,publishedJune2015
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
17
PetroleumProducts
Therearespecificationsfor
over2,000individualrefinery
products
Intermediatefeedstockscan
beroutedtovariousunitsto
producedifferentblendstocks
Dependsuponthelocal
economics&contractual
limitations
Ref:Unknownorigin.PossiblySoconyVacuumOilCompany,Inc.(1943)
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
19
U.S.Refinery&BlenderNetProduction
IncludesproductiontoApril2015 updatedAugust6,2015
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_refp_dc_nus_mbbl_m.htm
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
20
U.S.Refinery&BlenderNetProduction
1.5ratioof
gasoline&
naphthato
middledistillates
EIA,refineryyield updatedJuly9,2015
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_pct_dc_nus_pct_m.htm
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
21
RefineryEconomics
Whendorefinersmakemoney?
Highcrudeoilprices?
Lowcrudeoilprices?
Itdepends!
Differencebetweenthesalepriceoftheproducts&purchasepriceofthecrudeoil
Operatingcostscutintothisspread
Typicalprices
Whatisthepriceofcrudeoil?
Dependsonlocation,quality,
Whataretheproductprices?
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
23
ProductEconomics CrackSpread
Estimatesthevalueaddedbyrefiningasanindustry
4standardspreads
532
5bblcrude 3bblsgasoline+2bblsheatingoil/diesel
321
3bblcrude 2bblsgasoline+1bblsheatingoil/diesel
211
2bblcrude 1bblsgasoline+1bblsheatingoil/diesel
6321
6bblcrude 3bblsgasoline+2bblsheatingoil/diesel+1bblresidualfueloil
Ruleofthumbforprofitableoperatingenvironment
Longheldview greaterthan$4perbblasstronglyprofitable
Currentview shouldbegreaterthan$9perbbltobeprofitable
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
24
CrackSpreadCalculation
Example Bloomberg,8/11/2015
Prices
WTICushingSpot
$43.17perbbl
Brent
$48.86perbbl
RBOBGasoline
$1.6728pergal
HeatingOil
$1.5516pergal
532Spreads
WTI:
42 3 1.6728 2 1.5516 5 43.17
$24.03 perbbl
5
Brent:
42 3 1.6728 2 1.5516 5 48.86
$18.34 perbbl
5
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
25
PricesAreCrudeSpecific
Ref:Statistics,Oil&GasJournal,August3,2015
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
26
PricesAreCrudeSpecific
EIApublishedmonthlyproductiondata updatedAugust6,2015
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_m.htm
http://tonto.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=IMX2810004&f=M
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
27
HistoricalCrudePrices&CrackSpreads
UpdatedJuly9,2015
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
28
HistoricalCrudePrices&CrackSpreads
UpdatedAugust6,2015
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
29
Gasoline&DieselRetailvs.CommodityPrices
RetailPrice
GasolineRetailCostContributions
PerGallon
PerBarrel
$2.80
$117.60
Taxes
Distribution&Marketing
Refining
CrudeOil
16%
11%
21%
51%
RefineryCosts/CommodityPrice
RetailPrice
$0.45
$0.31
$0.59
$1.43
$18.82
$12.94
$24.70
$59.98
$2.02
$84.67
DieselRetailCostContributions
PerGallon
PerBarrel
$2.87
$120.54
Taxes
Distribution&Marketing
Refining
CrudeOil
18%
19%
13%
49%
RefineryCosts/CommodityPrice
$0.52
$0.55
$0.37
$1.41
$21.70
$22.90
$15.67
$59.06
$1.78
$74.73
Source:http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
30
DifferentialBetweenRegular&PremiumGasolines
UpdatedAugust6,2015
Source:http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_refmg_dcu_nus_m.htm
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
31
Howdoenergypricescompare?
RBOBGasolinewholesale
HeatingOilwholesale
WTICrudeOil
BrentCrudeOil
Ethanolrack
NaturalGasHenryHub
PowderRiverBasinCoal(lowsulfur)
IllinoisNo.6Coal(highsulfur)
Electricity(Residential,winterseason)
ElectricityCommercial,winterseason)
Electricity(Aveconsumer,earlysummer)
Hydrogendispensedcost
GivenPrice
HeatingValue
2.7906 $pergallon
115,000 Btu/gal
2.8373 $pergallon
130,500 Btu/gal
93.27 $perbbl
5.8
MMBtu/bbl
102.06 $perbbl
5.8
MMBtu/bbl
2.71
$pergallon
75,700 Btu/gal
3.97
$perMMBtu
10.55 $perton
8,800 Btu/lb
45.15 $perton
11,800 Btu/lb
4.604 perkWh
3.920 perkWh
11.4
perkWh
4.03
$perkg
324.2 Btu/scf
LHV
LHV
HHV
HHV
LHV
HHV
HHV
HHV
HHV
Price[$/MMBtu] RelativetoNaturalGas
24.27
6.1
21.74
5.5
16.08
4.1
17.60
4.4
35.80
9.0
3.97
1.0
0.60
0.2
1.91
0.5
13.49
3.4
11.49
2.9
33.41
8.4
29.95
7.5
References:
Gasoline,HeatingOil,&CrudeOilfromBlomberg(6/3/2013)
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
EthanolpricefromNYMEX(6/3/2013)
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
CoalfromUSEIACoalNews&Markets(weekending5/31/13).
http://www.eia.gov/coal/news_markets/
XcelEnergyelectrictariffbook(asof12/28/2011)
http://www.xcelenergy.com/About_Us/Rates_&_Regulations/Rates,_Rights_&_Service_Rules/CO_Regulatory_Rates_and_Tariffs
HydrogencostfromDOEreport,DOEHydrogen&FuelCellsProgramRecord,Sept.24,2012
http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/12024_h2_production_cost_natural_gas.pdf
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
32
EarlyHistory
Firstoilwellof"Colonel"EdwinL.Drake
August1859,OilCreekinnorthwesternPennsylvania
FirstrefineriesbuiltuparoundPennsylvaniaoilwells.Batch
distillationtorecoverkerosene.
Keroseneviewedasasuperiorreplacementtowhaleoilforlampoil.
StandardOilTrust
JohnD.Rockefelleracquiredpetroleum
interestsduringthelate1800s.
OrganizedastheStandardOilTrust
in1882.
U.S.SupremeCourtdissolvedin1911.
34companiesspunoff.
Changeinproductdemand
In1911,nation'skeroseneoutput
eclipsedforthe1st timebyadiscarded
byproduct gasoline
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
34
ImplementationofTechnologies
Year
1862
Processname
Atmosphericdistillation
Purpose
Producekerosene
Lubricants(original)
Crackingfeedstocks(1930's)
Increasegasoline
Reducesulfur&odor
Improveoctanenumber
Removesulfur
Producegasolinebasestocks
Improvelubricantviscosityindex
Improvepourpoint
Improvegasolineyield
&octanenumber
1870
Vacuumdistillation
1913
1916
1930
1932
1932
1933
1935
Thermalcracking
Sweetening
Thermalreforming
Hydrogenation
Coking
Solventextraction
Solventdewaxing
1935
Cat.polymerization
1937
Catalyticcracking
Higheroctanegasoline
1939
1940
1940
1942
1950
1952
1954
1956
Visbreaking
Alkylation
Isomerization
Fluidcatalyticcracking
Deasphalting
Catalyticreforming
Hydrodesulfurization
Inhibitorsweetening
1957
Catalyticisomerization
1960
1974
Hydrocracking
Catalyticdewaxing
1975
Residualhydrocracking
Reduceviscosity
Increasegasolineoctane&yield
Producealkylationfeedstock
Increasegasolineyield&octane
Increasecrackingfeedstock
Convertlowqualitynaphtha
Removesulfur
Removemercaptan
Converttomoleculeswithhigh
octanenumber
Improvequalityandreducesulfur
Improvepourpoint
Increasegasolineyieldfrom
residual
Byproducts,etc.
Naphtha,tar,etc.
Asphalt,residual
cokerfeedstocks
Residual,bunkerfuel
Sulfur
Residual
Sulfur
Coke
Aromatics
Waxes
Petrochemical
feedstocks
Petrochemical
feedstocks
Increaseddistillate,tar
Highoctaneaviationgasoline
Naphtha
Petrochemicalfeedstocks
Asphalt
Aromatics
Sulfur
Disulfides
Alkylationfeedstocks
Alkylationfeedstocks
Wax
Heavyresiduals
Ref:http://www.osha.gov/dts/osta/otm/otm_iv/otm_iv_2.html
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
35
DescriptionofPetroleumRefinery
Manageshydrocarbonmolecules
Organized&coordinatedarrangementofmanufacturingprocesses
Providephysical&chemicalchangeofcrudeoil
Salableproductswithspecifications&volumesasdemandedbythe
marketplace
Completerefinerywillinclude:
Tankageforstorage
Dependablesourcefor
electricpower
Wastedisposal&treatment
facilities
Productblendingfacilities
Aroundtheclockoperations
Conversionunits
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
36
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
Refinery
Blending
Processes
Conversion Processes
Raw
Materials
Fractionation
PetroleumRefineryBlockFlowDiagram
Products
38
PetroleumRefineryBlockFlowDiagram
Gases
Polymerization
Sulfur
Plant
Sat Gas
Plant
Gas
Fuel Gas
Butanes
Alkyl
Feed
Gas
Separation
&
Stabilizer
Alkylation
LPG
Polymerization
Naphtha
Isomerization
Light Naphtha
Alkylate
Aviation
Gasoline
Automotive
Gasoline
Isomerate
Naphtha
Hydrotreating
Heavy
Naphtha
Atmospheric
Distillation
Crude
Oil
Sulfur
LPG
Reformate
Naphtha
Reforming
Solvents
Naphtha
Jet Fuels
Kerosene
Desalter
Kerosene
Distillate
Hydrocracking
AGO
LVGO
Vacuum
Distillation
Gas Oil
Hydrotreating
Fluidized
Catalytic
Cracking
Cat
Distillates
Visbreaking
Vacuum
Residuum
Distillate
Hydrotreating
Solvents
Treating &
Blending
Heating Oils
Diesel
Fuel Oil
HVGO
Solvent
Deasphalting
Cat
Naphtha
Cycle Oils
Residual
Fuel Oils
DAO
Coker
Naphtha
Heavy
Coker
Gas
Oil
SDA
Bottoms
Asphalts
Naphtha
Distillates
Fuel Oil
Bottoms
Solvent
Dewaxing
Lube Oil
Lubricant
Greases
Waxes
Waxes
Coking
Light Coker
Gas Oil
Coke
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
40
SupplementalSlides
GenealogyOfMajorU.S.Refiners
Recentrefineryclosures
U.S.OilfromImports
Import/ExportRefinedProducts ValeroExample
Pricesmayvarybylocation
Gasoline&dieseltaxesbystate
Processcostestimates
SatelliteViewofSelectedU.S.Refineries
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
43
RefinersRealignment
USrefinerscontinueconsolidation,restructuringefforts,Leffler,Oil&GasJournal,Aug.3,2015
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
44
RecentRefineryClosures
Ref:Valero,UBSGlobalOilandGasConference,May2122,2013
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
45
U.S.OilfromImports
EIApublisheddatausedforcharts updatedJuly30,2014
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_nusz00_mbblpd_w.htm
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_nus_w.htm
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
46
Import/ExportRefinedProducts ValeroExample
Ref:Valero,UBSGlobalOilandGasConference,May2122,2013
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
47
PumppricesarenotthesameacrossU.S.
Source:http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/images/gasoline_prices_map_375.png
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
48
GasolineTaxesarenotthesameacrossU.S.
Source:http://www.api.org/oilandnaturalgasoverview/industryeconomics/fueltaxes
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
49
DieselTaxesarenotthesameacrossU.S.
Source:http://www.api.org/oilandnaturalgasoverview/industryeconomics/fueltaxes
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
50
ProcessCostEstimates
Accountsforsizeimpactoninstalledcost
Developedfromreportedfinalcosts&supplemented
withengineeringestimates
Meanttorepresenttypicalvalues nobetterthan
25%
Notincluded:
Workingcapital
Inventories
Startupexpenses
Costofland
Sitepreparation
Taxes
Licenses
Permits
Duties
Kaiser&Gary,Studyupdatesrefineryinvestmentcostcurves,Oil&GasJournal,
Apr.23,2007,pp8494.(Delayedcokingcurvesmayhavebeenswitched)
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
51
SatelliteViewofSelectedU.S.Refineries
DakotaPrairieRefinery,Dickinson,ND
19,000bbl percalendarday
MotivaEnterprises LLC,PortArthur,TX
603,000bbl percalendarday
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
52
SatelliteViewofSelectedU.S.Refineries
MarathonGaryville Refinery,Garyville,LA
451,000bbl percalendarday
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
WoodRiverRefinery,Roxanna,IL
336,000bbl percalendarday
53
SatelliteViewofSelectedU.S.Refineries
SuncorRefinery,CommerceCity,CO
103,000bbl percalendarday
JohnJechura jjechura@mines.edu
Updated:August13,2015
54