Nurcahya |

Marry Nurcahya
Ibu Stela
Mathematics
24th November 2015
Mathematical Modeling (Real Life Problem)
Natural events always have its regularity. The phenomena that repeat in the time that
will come are like season, weather, time change and tides. One of the examples that
will be discussed in this investigation is tide. Because of having regularity to a certain
pattern, that is why it is called periodic phenomena. In this investigation, we will learn
further about drawing functions and plotting a data.
Tide Modeling
The Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia, Canada is deemed to have the greatest average
change in tide height in the world. In the table below data is presented from 27
December 2003 using Atlantic Standard Time (AST). The heights were taken at
Grindstone Island.
Time
(AST)
Heigh
t (m)

00.00

01.00

02.00

03.00

04.00

05.00

06.00

07.00

08.00

09.00

10.00

11.00

7.5

10.2

11.8

12.0

10.9

8.9

6.3

3.6

1.6

0.9

1.8

4.0

Time
(AST)
Heigh
t (m)

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

16.00

17.00

18.00

19.00

20.00

21.00

22.00

23.00

6.9

9.7

11.6

12.3

11.6

9.9

7.3

4.5

2.1

0.7

0.8

2.4

Method
The graph below shows the plotted data of the time against height on the 27
December 2003:

Nurcahya |
Tide Height in Nova Scotia, Canada

12

10

Height (m)

0
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Time (AST)

After plotting the data on the graph and from the data above, we could see the change
of the tide height at Grindstone Island. The highest tide height on 27th December 2003
was at 15.00, with a height of 12.3m. The data also shows the lowest tide height was
at 21.00, with a height of 0.7m. The graph also shows a wave-looking figure. 1 wave
consists of 1 peak and 1 valley. The graph has 2 peaks, and 2 valleys. So the figure
above has 2 waves.

2. Use your knowledge of functions to develop a function that models the behavior
noted in the graph. Describe any variables, parameters, or constraints for the model.
Explain clearly how you established the value of any parameters.

Variables:
tells the height of the tide in meters and

x shows the time, in hours.

Constraints (limitation/restriction):

Happening in The Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia, Canada on the 27th December 2003.

A=

Parameters:
(maximumminimum)
2

(12.30.7)
2

11.6
2

= 5.8

Nurcahya |

B = 1 period =

2
B

2
12

C = 12
D=

(maximum+minimum )
2

(12.3+0.7)
2

13
2

= 6.5

From the calculations above and using the formula, I could find A, the amplitude by
subtracting the minimum height from the maximum height and then dividing the
answer by 2. To find B, the period by dividing 2

by the value of B. To find the

value of C, the horizontal translation by looking at how it affects in the graph. Finding
D, the vertical shift by adding the maximum height and the minimum height and
dividing the result by 2.
So the equation for the plotting data according to the sinusoidal regression is:
y=5.8 sin

2
( x12 ) +6.5
12

After finding the A, B, C and D values, I inserted the values to the formula of
y= Asin ( B ( xc ) ) + D and plotted the line in the graph below, with the equation of:
y=5.8 sin

2
( x12 ) +6.5
12

To insert the function in Graphmatica software, it is written:

y=5.8 sin ( ( 2 pi/12 ) ( x 12 ) )+ 6.5

Nurcahya |
Tide Height in Nova Scotia, Canada

12

10

Height (m)

0
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Time (AST)

From plotting the graph above, it might look like the line fits perfectly to the data
plots; but actually, it still has a percentage error of 12.87%. To make the curve fit
better to the points, we have to change and modify the values in the equation.

4. Modify the function to create a better fit. Describe the issues you had to consider.
For modifying the function to create a better fit, I made 3 different modified
equations.
a) My first equation is:
y=5.8 sin

( x12 ) +6.5
6.3011

From my first equation, I inserted the function in Graphmatica software and is

written:
y=5.8 sin ( ( pi /6.3011 )( x12 )) + 6.5
After inserting the first equation to Graphmatica, the line looks like:

Nurcahya |
Tide Height in Nova Scotia, Canada

12

10

Height (m)

0
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Time (AST)

Using the Graphmatica software and then calculating the percentage error on Excel
document, the percentage error of the function is 6.99%. I found the numbers by using
trial and error, changing the value of the period. By doing trial and error, it is easier to
find the new function.
b) My second equation is:
y=5.823 sin

( x12 ) +6.58
6.2876

From my second equation, I inserted the function in Graphmatica software and is

written:
y=5.823 sin( ( pi /6.2876 ) ) ( x12 ) +6.58

Nurcahya |

After inserting the second equation to Graphmatica, the line looks like:
Tide Height in Nova Scotia, Canada

12

10

Height (m)

0
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Time (AST)

Using the Graphmatica software and then calculating the percentage error on Excel
document, the percentage error of the function is 6.96%. I found the numbers by using
trial and error, changing the value of the period. By doing trial and error, it is easier to
find the new function.

c) My third equation is:

y=5.8321 sin

( x12 ) +6.58142
6.27734

From my second equation, I inserted the function in Graphmatica software and is

written:
y=5.823 sin ( pi/ 6.2876 )( x12 ) +6.58
After inserting the equation to Graphmatica, the line looks like:

Nurcahya |

Tide Height in Nova Scotia, Canada

12

10

Height (m)

0
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Time (AST)

Using the Graphmatica software and then calculating the percentage error on Excel
document, the percentage error of the function is 6.83%. I found the numbers by using
trial and error, changing the value of the period. By doing trial and error, it is easier to
find the new function.
The sinusoidal regression equation is:
y = 5.7132sin (0.5064x + 0.1956) + 6.5867 ' curve-fit of Data plot 1; R=0.9972,
chi=1.1272 after 201 iterations

Nurcahya |
Tide Height in Nova Scotia, Canada

12

10

Height (m)

Below

is the
recorded
taken

data
before

0
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Time (AST)

December the 27th, 2003:

Time
04:23
09:56
16:01
22:36

Tuesday

Height of Tide
4.6 m
0.9 m
5.8 m
-0.7 m

The tidal range between 1601 hours and 2236 hours is 6.5 m. To find the tidal range
between 1601 hours and 2236 hours, we subtract the height of tide at 1601 hours with
the height of tide at 2236 hours.
5.8(0.7 )=5.8+0.7=6.5

Day 2
Below is the tide height for 28 December 2003:
Time
(AST)
Heigh
t (m)

00.00

01.00

02.00

03.00

04.00

05.00

06.00

07.00

08.00

09.00

10.00

11.00

5.0

7.9

10.2

11.6

11.6

10.5

8.5

6.0

3.5

1.7

1.2

2.2

Time
(AST)
Heigh
t (m)

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

16.00

17.00

18.00

19.00

20.00

21.00

22.00

23.00

4.4

7.2

9.7

11.3

11.8

11.1

9.4

7.0

4.4

2.2

1.0

1.3

The graph below shows the plotted data for the tide height on 28 December 2003.

Nurcahya |
Tide Height in Nova Scotia, Canada

12

10

Height (m)

0
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

14

16

18

20

22

Time (AST)

Tide Height in Nova Scotia, Canada

12

10

Height (m)

0
0

10

12

22

Time (AST)

The graph above shows how the function

y=5.8 sin

( x12 )+ 6.5 has been

6

applied to the graph. It is shown that the function did not fit the data perfectly.
The graph below shows a modification to make the function more accurate than the

previous graph with the equation

y=5.8 sin

( x12 )+ 6.5 applied.

6

Nurcahya |
The modification function below is changing all the variables of the function. The
equation used for the data below is:

( x12.801 ) +6.59
6.2903

y=5.59 sin

Tide Height in Nova Scotia, Canada

12

10

Height (m)

0
0

the

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Using

-2
Time (AST)

Graphmatica software and then calculating the percentage error on Excel document,
the percentage error of the function is 6.83%. I found the numbers by using trial and
error, changing the value of the period. By doing trial and error, it is easier to find the
new function.

Reflection
From this investigation, I have learned a lot about plotting data and drawing
the lines with equation. I learned that the numbers that I calculated about the height of
tide in The Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia, Canada could be used only on the certain
day, time and month because like any formulas, they have constraints. Variables and
parameters that could affect to the tide, there is always wind and air that affects the
tide height. That is why the constraint exists. With the percentage error, it tells us how

Nurcahya |
far we are to getting the perfect fit for the line. This makes the formula and methods
make sense because the closer the number in the formula, the smaller our percentage
error would be. Even though I did not achieve a percentage error less than 6.65%, I
got the closest possible result to the sinusoidal regression without manipulating the
data.
The results that can be used in real life is to find the temperature and season.
Examples are like the season in Australia during winter, how the temperature gets
warmer during the day, and colder by night. The temperature change could be used to
plot the data, using the time by temperature, in the

x and

axis.

Nurcahya |