EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

Outlook

3/2012

2012

Bull - Bear:

QE3 ?
In focus:

...?

GSP
Summary of main forecasts

.
.
.
.

EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

27

 3/2012

2012

Bull-Bear:

QE3 ?

20
22

In focus:

...?

GSP
Summary of main forecasts

25
32
45

Disclaimer : The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither we nor any of
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completeness of any of the information contained in this report, and we and each of such persons expressly disclaims any and all liability
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Any opinions presented herein represent the subjective views of ours and our current estimated and judgments which are based on various
assumptions that may be subject to change without notice, and may not prove to be correct.
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and should not be relied as such. We or any of our associates may also have an interest in the companies mentioned herein.

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

2012

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 5.6-5.8%

2012


3.2-3.7%
3%
30-32
30-31

2013

PIIGS
GDP
GDP
( 1)
2013

2012
: %YOY

2012
2012

8.5

2.2

2.7

2.1

1.6

-0.6

-0.6

: SCB EIC

7.9

 3/2012

2 (Non-farm payrolls) 75,000
225,000 1 (Initial jobless claims)


2008 (
2)
8.0%

Case-Shiller Home price index

(New home sales)

: %

:
700
600

()

()

500

12
10
8

: (2000=100)

1600
1400

220

Case-Shiller
Home price
index
()

()

1200

400

6
1000

300

200

100
2006

0
2012

2012

2011

2010

-800

2009

-800

2008

-300

2007

-300

100

2006

200

2005

200

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

120

200

2004

2011

2003

2010

140

400

2002

2009

600

2001

2008

180

160

2000

2007

800

200

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

2008 Case-Shiller Home Price Index
(New home sales)
( 3)

2

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

1 5
( 4)

4
5

(Fiscal cliff)

: %YOY
6

: %YOY

()

()

30

CBO

-1600
-1400

20

10

-1200
-1000

Fiscal
cliff

-800
-600
-400

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2002

400
2001

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

200

2008

-30

5.6
2013
4 % GDP
2007

-6

2006

-20

2005

-4

-200

2004

-10

2003

-2

: SCB EIC Congressional

Budget Office (CBO)

(Payroll tax cut) (Jobless benefits)
2001 2012
1 10 2013 Sequestration

Fiscal cliff
2012 2013 5.6 4% GDP1 ( 5)
1

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

 3/2012

2013 2.0%

(Quantitative Easing 3 QE3)

(QE3)
( Bull-Bear: QE3 ?)

2
( 2008-09)

Multiplier effect
( 6)

: SCB EIC

Dual Deficit (Fiscal deficit) (Current account deficit)

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

(Domestic demand)
( 7)


EIC (Deleveraging cycle)

GDP (Domestic Demand)

: %YOY
4%

GDP 4Q11
GDP 1Q12

2%
0%
-2%
-4%
DD 4Q11
-6%

DD 1Q12

-8%

: SCB EIC CEIC

Tighter integration Disintegration

Euro Summit
(Single European banking supervision
system)
ESM (European Stability Mechanism)
(Fiscal union)
(Eurobond)


( In Focus: ...
?)
5

 3/2012

( 8) 10 7%
( 9)
33,000

10
8
7%

: %

: %

: SCB EIC Bloomberg 24 2012

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

Jul-11

Jun-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Feb-11

Dec-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

5
Sep-10

5
Jul-10

Aug-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Jun-10

May-10

Apr-10

Feb-10

11

Mar-10

11

Jan-10

11

Dec-09

13

Nov-09

13

May-11

: %

13

Mar-11

: %

Jan-11

: %

Dec-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

10
9

: SCB EIC CEIC

7.6%YOY 2 1 2009 14
1998
(Retail sales) (Fixed asset investment)


19%

22%
2008

7.5%

 3/2012

(Reserve requirement ratio; RRR)
( 10)
20%
GDP 2008 ( 4 )

10

RRR
: %YOY; %

: %

10
8

25

1
()

RRR ()
20

6
15

4
2

10

0
-2
-4
2006

()

0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

4.7% Eco-car

50% 3

( 11) 230%
GDP
0.1%

2011
( 12) 2

12
11

(Industrial Production)

(Industrial Production)
: (2005=100)

: %YOY

120

60

40

110

20

100

90

80

-20

70

-40

2011

2008-2009

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2012

2007

2011

2006

2010

2005

2009

2004

2008

2003

60

-60

: SCB EIC Bloomberg CEIC : SCB EIC Bloomberg

30%

 3/2012

( 13)

13

GDP
EU

(: %)
80

70
60

50

()

40

30

20
10

EU
GDP

0
0

10

20

-5*

30

40

50

60

GDP
(: %)

70

* -5
: SCB EIC IMF World Bank

10

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

2011 11%
-
( 14)

14

2011

Contribution To
Growth (CTG)

36%

-12.9%

-4.7%

26%

-10.1%

-2.6%

&

24%

-10.0%

-2.4%

&

14%

-6.2%

-0.9%

100%

-10.6%

: SCB EIC 2012 Bank for International Settlement

11

 3/2012

5.6-5.8% 2012

11%
9.3%

2011

7.7%YOY
112%YOY4 ( 15)

2012
11% 2011

15

: % YOY

..

..

..

..

..

ASEAN

4.2%

21.8%

2.7%

6.7%

13.4%

Japan

-10.7%

-6.9%

-3.6%

-7.7%

5.0%

USA

-3.8%

4.0%

5.3%

-1.1%

10.9%

EU(27)

-21.5%

-13.0%

-14.9%

-12.5%

4.4%

China

-0.4%

3.4%

1.1%

16.5%

22.3%

: SCB EIC

136%YOY

12

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

3%
4.1% 11.7%

30% ( 16)
EIC 75%
3 2-3
3.5
2013

16

75%

: %
90

283

183

264

273* ()

80
70
29

60
50

32

40

45

40

30
20

50
34

41
30

10
0
FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

: SCB EIC

13

FY2012(F)

 3/2012

GDP 2017
GDP
45%
EIC 4-5 4
2-3
GDP
51% ( 17) EIC
2.27
GDP 2017

...
17
2560 (FY2017)
GDP
: %
65
60

55

...

50

2559
...
...

45

2559
...

40
35
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

*
3 2556
2559 2556 1
2559
...
2.27 2 2556

: SCB EIC

14

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

2012 EIC
3.2-3.7% 2.2-2.7%
( 18)

18

: %YOY()

: %MOM

10%

: %YOY()

( )

()

8%
6%

100%

0.8%

80%

0.7%

60%

0.6%

40%

0.5%

20%

0.4%

0%

0.3%

-20%

0.2%

-40%

0.1%

-60%

0.0%

: %MOM
3.0%

( )

2.5%

()

2.0%

4%

0%
-2%

( )

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

-4%

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

15

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12

2%

1.5%

 3/2012

3.0%

3 4 (.) 0.25%
2013


.
( 19)

19

: %

11.00

6.90

4.10

3.20

1.70

1.50

3.80

2.80

1.00

3.00

2.20

0.80

5.13

4.53

0.60

3.00

2.56

0.44

2.85

2.45

0.40

1.36

1.77

-0.41

*
1
: SCB EIC Bloomberg CEIC

16

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

30-32
Euro Summit
2-3

()
30.5

Asia Dollar Index ( 20)
5
( 21)

(Real Effective Exchange Rate; REER)

REER

17

 3/2012

20

21

Asia Dollar Index

:

:
112

114

(REER)

()

Asia Dollar Index

( )

: (2005=100)

32.0

140
31.5

130

120

116

31.0

118

30.5

110
100

120

90

80

30.0

70

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Feb-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

60
Jul-11

Jul-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

May-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Feb-12

Dec-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Sep-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

29.5

Aug-11

122

: SCB EIC CEIC

2013
EIC 4.7-5.2%

2013
CLMV6
2013
.
2013

1-2


6

18

Bull - Bear:

3/2012

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

BULL-BEAR:

(USD/)
()

2012F*

2011

2013F*

Q1

Q2

Q3F

Q4F

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

WTI

95

103

94

90

92

95

98

93

94

93

99

98

96

100

89

Brent

111

118

110

99

103

108

110

106

104

102

109

107

106

109

104

* Leading global houses

Bull

BULLs

BEAR

Bear

BEARs

2 OPEC
3.3
22
37% 1.5

28 1 2012

P5+1 (
)



185

SCB EIC

: Leading global houses ( 11 2012)

IMF
2012
3.5% ECB
Fiscal Cliff (
)
ADB

2012 6.9% 6.6%

International Energy Agency (IEA)

2012 1 88.9
2012
5.4

2012 -2.7% -1.6%
4.2
OPEC


2012 OPEC
3.8

2012

OPEC

P5+1
20

QE3 ?

3/2012

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

BULL-BEAR: QE3 ?

Bull

Bear

3 3
(QE3)

BULLs


(ISM)
2009
49.7 50

80,000
90,000-100,000

2008

8.2%

(QE) 2 Operation
Twist



1.7%

BEARs

2009


S&P/Case-Shiller home prices 2 3
0.4%
2012
-0.7% 4.4%

2 3

QE3

22

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

SCB EIC

BULL

3 (QE3)

ISM
Manufacturing (New orders) 60.1
47.8 ( 50 )

2012
(Fiscal cliff) ()
Fiscal cliff

QE3


QE3

QE3

23

In focus:
...?

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

In focus:
...?

IMF 0.3% 2012
0.7% 2013

Euro Summit

Euro Summit
1
28-29 2012

EFSF
ESM

Troika*

EFSF ESM

120,000

1%
GDP

(ECB)

(Banking Union)

* Troika European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) International Monetary Fund (IMF)
: SCB EIC

25

 3/2012

PIIGS
2
PIIGS

PIIGS

PIIGS

100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

0%

0%

: SCB EIC 2012 Bank for International Settlement

26

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

( 3)

3
2

3,300 1.5% GDP 2012

1% GDP

(primary fiscal surplus) 1.8% GDP

2013 4.5% GDP 2014

22% 10% 25

(privatization) 50,000 2015

: SCB EIC The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece,

March 2012 European Commission

1

GDP ( 126%, 90%)
2 (Primary fiscal deficit) (Primary fiscal surplus) ( 4)
()

GDP 20% 40%

(Primary balance)

27

 3/2012

(Primary balance)

: GDP (%)

: GDP (%)

6
5

-1
-2

Primary balance

-3

-4

-5

Overall balance

-6

Primary balance

-7

-1

-8

-2

-9

-3

Overall balance

-4

-10
2010

2011

2012*

2013*

2014*

2010

2011

2012*

2013*

2014*

* IMF. Overall balance Primary balance

: SCB EIC IMF Fiscal Monitor April 2012

Best case scenario

2012 Troika

2013 ESM
120,000
2013

28

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

Worst case scenario

Troika

Troika

2012 2013
(investment grade)

ESM
( 2)

Baseline scenario
Troika

2012
2013
2013 ESM
120,000 /

29

 3/2012

5
Scenarios
Baseline

Best

Worst

Troika

2013
2013
2013
2013

: SCB EIC

4
10%

30

In focus:

GSP

 3/2012

In focus:
GSP
EIC 3

GDP
19%
2012 8%
GSP (Product Graduation) 50
78 GSP
(Upper-Middle Income)
2,562

EIC 2012 8%
11%
GDP
5 11.4%YOY (EU
Summit)
(European Financial Stability Facility; EFSF) (European
Stability Mechanism; ESM)
1.2 EIC
2012 3.3%

GDP
( 1) EIC 2012 (GDP 2% 0.3%
) 2012 10.8% 3.3%

32

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

GDP
1

GDP

<30%

30-60%

>60%

* 10% GDP 1%
5%
: SCB EIC

19%
GDP
( 2)
2012 2012 8.6%
11.2%

33

 3/2012

GDP

<30%

30-60%

>60%

* 10% GDP 1%
5%
: SCB EIC

GSP
Generalised System of Preferences (GSP)

(High-income countries)
(Upper-middle income countries) 3
(Free Trade Area; FTA)
17.5% ( 14.5 %
) GSP GSP
(Product Graduation) GSP 13
GSP
2 1 2014
1 2015

34

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

17.5% ( 14.5% )
50 4
1) (MFN rate1) GSP
GSP ( 3)
2) (MFN rate) GSP
GSP ( 4)
3) (MFN rate) GSP
GSP ( 5)
4) (MFN rate) GSP
GSP ( 6)

EIC GSP Product Graduation 78

2 85.5%

1) (MFN rate) GSP

GSP 3% 3%
2)

MFN rate

(MFN rate) GSP 3 GSP

2
2 (17.3%)
2,500 (14%)

35

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

3 Product Graduation
HS Code

(MFN)

GSP

*
()

GSP*

021099

6.4%

2.9%

227,930.7

0.00%

0.04%

060120

0.0%

0.0%

10,734,825.3

0.10%

60.84%

091099

0.0%

0.0%

6,438,735

18.84%

52.83%

020600

0.0%

0.0%

7,366,210

13.95%

17.50%

210330

0.0%

0.0%

416,370

26.74%

5.12%

210390

0.0%

0.0%

78,019,683

85.30%

19.11%

360300

6.0%

0.0%

1,961,778

0.00%

13.82%

845630

3.5%

0.0%

18,677,476

0.00%

18.15%

851420

2.2%

0.0%

850,479.3

0.00%

19.33%

10

852290

85.19 85.21
()

0.0%

0.0%

130,135,176.7

0.00%

22.12%

11

852329

Magnetic media

0.0%

0.0%

6,432,882.7

0.00%

6.82%

12

852352

Smart Card

3.7%

0.0%

5,783,4494

0.00%

42.79%

13

902920

2.6%

0.0%

22,678,872

0.00%

11.47%

14

903089

0.0%

0.0%

6,349,208

0.00%

5.99%

* GSP 3 (2009-2011)
: SCB EIC , ,International Trade Center European Commission

36

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

4 Product Graduation
HS Code

(MFN)

GSP

*
()

GSP*

() GPS

200870

25.6%

22.1%

1,827,919.30

0.27%

4.69%

172.74

160300

12.8%

9.3%

1,335,487.70

0.41%

1.39%

191.64

190540

9.7%

6.2%

520,523.70

17.04%

2.86%

3,104.40

190410

3.8%

0.0%

927,117.70

17.52%

2.73%

4,914.65

081290

2.3%

0.0%

834,384.00

51.87%

12.03%

9,954.28

170290

50

12.8%

9.3%

748,165.30

85.70%

5.16%

22,441.22

190490

8.3%

4.8%

4,441,497.70

61.88%

15.89%

23,146.87

190219

7.7%

4.2%

4,890,927.70

14.89%

16.80%

25,489.07

850590

1.8%

0.0%

24,323,412.30

5.93%

6.56%

25,962.81

* GSP 3 (2009-2011)
: SCB EIC , ,International Trade Center European Commission

37

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

5 Product Graduation
HS Code

(MFN)

GSP

*
()

GSP*

() GPS

900140

2.9%

0.0%

8,834,502.30

39.69%

54.02%

101,686

391220

()

6.5%

0.0%

20,070,740.30

13.95%

32.21%

181,911.44

190230

()

6.4%

2.9%

30,787,939.00

11.51%

21.16%

188,089.96

510710

85

3.8%

3.0%

30,787,939

80.36%

61.71%

197,929.50

840721

6.2%

2.7%

12,565,230.7

53.23%

49.89%

234,096.53

611300

8.0%

6.4%

30,417,197.7

53.98%

48.37%

262,707.25

190220

()

8.5%

5.0%

8,375,923

96.54%

24.74%

283,014.06

401519

2.7%

0.0%

103,756,607.3

13.95%

30.26%

390,799.26

160590

20.0%

16.5%

16,296,192.3

82.95%

27.00%

473,119.20

38

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

HS Code

(MFN)

GSP

*
()

GSP*

() GPS

10

200892

16.0%

12.5%

18,978,546

77.02%

11.54%

511,604.66

11

200949

Brix 20

33.6%

30.1%

10,3728,278

14.89%

56.80%

540,579.92

12

230910

9.6%

6.1%

130,364,284.7

15.37%

19.03%

701,294.67

13

841510

2.2%

0.0%

232,543,378

13.95%

16.45%

713,675.63

14

190590

3.8%

0.0%

32,762,411.7

62.40%

27.61%

776,862.31

15

160420

20.0%

16.5%

74,550,792.7

44.33%

20.15%

1,156,692.82

16

401140

4.5%

0.0%

32,283,346

87.88%

16.87%

1,276,677.20

17

210690

17.3%

13.8%

76,570,960

58.81%

10.13%

1,576,098.36

18

840790

2.7%

0.0%

111,038,334.7

53.55%

25.40%

1,605,447.76

* GSP 3 (2009-2011)
: SCB EIC , ,International Trade Center European Commission

39

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

6 Product Graduation
HS Code

(MFN)

GSP

*
()

GSP*

() GPS

330210

17.3%

0.0%

19,947,761.3

96.78%

30.33%

3,339,841.71

350510

7.7%

0.0%

49,315,566.7

95.54%

9.39%

3,627,939.12

870332

1,500
2,500

10.0%

0.0%

65,121,820.3

62.46%

0.44%

4,067,508.90

870333

2,500

10.0%

0.0%

66,937,207.7

83.71%

1.10%

5,603,313.66

200820

25.6%

22.1%

195,731,739.3

88.32%

35.09%

6,050,459.53

160520

20.0%

16.5%

228,335,310.7

98.51%

14.60%

7,872,659.01

900150

2.9%

0.0%

373,356,480.3

83.46%

45.36%

9,036,496.24

852721

14.0%

0.0%

143,050,108.3

60.63%

22.17%

12,142,379.29

870421

(g.v.w.)
5

3.5%

0.0%

564,249,557.7

75.13%

15.23%

14,837,224.24

* GSP 3 (2009-2011)
: SCB EIC , ,International Trade Center European Commission

40

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

GSP 2015
(Upper-middle income)
3 2011 2013 1 2015
2011 4,420

GSP 723
64.1
723

( 7) :
1) GSP (Low-income countries)
(Lower-middle income countries)

2) (Upper-middle income countries)
FTA

2,562

(Upper-middle
income countries)
17% 2011 1%

41

 3/2012

(Product differentiation)

(Emerging Markets)
50% 2020

GSP Product Graduation

CLMV
GSP GSP

(Everything But Arms: EBA) GSP
GSP
GSP
GSP

GSP
GSP GSP
( 2.6%) Smart Card ( 3.7%)
GSP
2015
FTA GSP

42

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

2011

()
UM
15,585
UM
54,220
UM
67,786
UM
15,199
UM
21,855
UM
28,588

21%
42%
56%
42%
64%
57%

4%
-4%
-5%
-11%
-5%
13%

FTA
FTA

FTA
FTA
FTA

UM

25,324

45%

-4%

FTA

UM

437,481

58%

8%

LM
LM
LM

20,538
24,151
7,348

37%
44%
59%

-11%
-3%
-10%

GSP
GSP
GSP+

LM

57,082

48%

-5%

GSP

LM
LM
L

19,523
197
2,190

54%
N/A
N/A

-6%
N/A
N/A

244

N/A

N/A

GSP(FTA)
EBA
EBA
EBA
()

UM
LM
L
FTA
GSP
GSP+
EBA

Upper middle income 4,036 12,475

Lower middle income 1,026 4,035
Low income 1,025
4.82 %
2.84 %
> 2.84 %
> 4.82 %

SCB EIC World Bank ,International Trade Center

43

Summary of
main forecasts

 3/2012

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

SCB EIC summary of main forecasts

Key indicators
Real GDP growth
Demand-side
Private consumption
Public consumption
Investment (GFCF)
Private investment
Public investment
Supply-side
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
External sector
Export of Goods (USD)
Import of Goods (USD)
Current account
Key rates
Headline inflation
Core inflation
Policy rate (RP-1D) (end period)
THB/USD (end period)
THB/EUR (end period)
THB/JPY (end period)
THB/CNY (end period)
Oil prices Brent (period average)
International tourists

2011
Share (%)

Unit

Actual

SCB EIC forecast

% YOY

2011
0.1%

12Q1 12Q2
0.3% 3.6%

12Q3 12Q4
3.4% 16.5%

52.0%
10.1%
21.5%
16.8%
4.7%

% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY

1.3%
1.4%
3.3%
7.2%
-8.7%

2.7%
-1.6%
5.2%
9.2%
-9.6%

3.0%
4.0%
9.3%
9.1%
10.0%

3.6%
3.0%
10.8%
11.1%
10.0%

8.6%
39.0%
52.4%

% YOY
% YOY
% YOY

3.8%
-4.3%
2.9%

2.8%
-4.2%
3.4%

2.1%
3.0%
4.4%

% YOY
% YOY
USD bln

17%
25%
11.9

-3.9%
10.4%
0.6

% YOY
% YOY
% p.a.
THB/USD
THB/EUR
THB/100JPY
THB/CNY
USD/bbl
%YOY

3.8%
2.4%
3.25%
31.2
41.0
40.2
4.9
111.1
14%

3.4%
2.7%
3.00%
30.8
41.1
37.2
4.9
118
7.1%

Consensus

BOT

2012
5.6-5.8%

2013
4.7-5.2%

2012
5.3%

2012
6.0%

7.1%
7.0%
19.3%
18.0%
25.0%

4.1%
3.0%
11.0%
11.7%
8.2%

3.7%
5.0%
7.5%
5.0%
17.0%

4.1%

5.7%
4.9%

1.2%
2.6%
4.3%

1.4%
36.0%
7.4%

1.9%
7.7%
4.8%

1.7%
6.3%
5.2%

3.5%
6.9%
-0.6

4.7%
10.1%
0.1

44%
34.1%
2.5

10.8%
15.1%
2.5

15.4%
11.4%
9.5

6.4%
12.6%
3.5

7.0%
11.7%
-4.9

2.5%
2.0%
3.00%
31.6
40.0
39.6
5.0
110
10.5%

3.0%
2.2%
3.00%
31.0
38.8
39.2
4.9
99
1.3%

4.2%
2.6%
3.00%
30.5
39.4
38.5
4.9
103
25.2%

3.2-3.7%
2.2-2.7%
3.00%
30-31
39.4
38.5
4.9
108
10.4%

3.5-4.0%
2.0-2.5%
3.50%
29.5-31
39.1
37.0
4.8
106
4.0-6.0%

3.1%

3.5%
2.5%

12.3%
14.3%
17.9%

For 12Q2, actuals are reported for External sector, Key rates and Oil prices.
Sources: SCB EIC forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (July 2012), May 2012 Bank of Thailands Inflation Report, and Foreign research houses.

45

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

.
Chief Economist

. 2553
Chief Economist (SCB
EIC) .
.
(IMF),
ING, Booz, Allen, Hamilton

. (Kings Scholarship)
Harvard University
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
. 20
Asia Society 2550
.
. Assistant Professor of Economics
San Diego State University Journal of
International Money and Finance Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
. ()
University
of Michigan, Ann Arbor
. Oxford Analytica

Citigroup London
(Oxford Thai Society, 2005-6) Oxford Initiative

. ( )
()
Citibank/FCO Chevening Scholarship
University of Oxford
.
.

. ()
Policy
Economics University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign World Bank
London School of Economics
Applied Economics and Management Cornell University

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

( )

()

( )

Advanced Datanetwork Communications

Senior Network Engineer

SCB Economic Intelligence Center

()
.

Chief Economist
sutapa.amornvivat@scb.co.th
(662)544-6540

Macroeconomics
.

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Head of Sectorial Strategy

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EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

27

!::+H*&:<*; 9)3:!0A!*/<9*D0+1 <E-8 @+ <D-

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