SASKATCHEWAN

[FEBRUARY 16, 2016]

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,477 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR on
February 11th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/2.55%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Regina: +/-4.3%; Saskatoon: +/-4.41%;
rest of Saskatchewan: +/-4.54%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography,
age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

SK PARTY STILL DOMINATING AS NDP EDGES UPWARDS

February 16, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nd the Saskatchewan Party continues
to lead while the NDP have edged up slightly. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/2.55%, 19 times out of 20.
The Saskatchewan Party is down to 49% (-2) while the NDP is now at 28% (+4).
The change for the Saskatchewan Party is within the margin of error while the NDP seem to have gained
a little said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Well be watching to see if these trends
continue moving forward.
The election is an opportunity for the NDP and opposition parties to be on equal footing.
The strength of support for both the Saskatchewan party and NDP is roughly the same 69% of
Saskatchewan Party voters say they have made up their minds while 70% of NDP supporters say the same.
Only 42% of Liberal party supporters are strong supporters.
These are solid numbers for both the NDP and SK Party. They both have strong bases, though of course
the Saskatchewan Party base is larger, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4
SK Party

NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL
NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

Feb 11

Liberal

Green

18-34
47%
27%
5%
5%
16%
300

UD

35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

47%
50%
56% 53%
46%
28%
30%
25% 23%
32%
9%
6%
5%
9%
4%
2%
2%
1%
3%
3%
14%
12%
13% 13%
15%
337
335
505 643
834
Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
SK
41%
42%
55%
49%
30%
36%
24%
28%
5%
5%
7%
6%
8%
2%
1%
3%
17%
15%
12%
14%
518
493
466
1477

A4

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED OR LEANING)

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4
SK Party

NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
SAMPLE

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
SAMPLE

Liberal

18-34
54%
34%
7%
6%
267

Feb 11
Green

35-49
54%
32%
10%
4%
314
SK
56%
32%
8%
4%
1362

UD

50-64
55%
34%
9%
2%
306

65+
62%
29%
7%
2%
475

Male Female
58%
53%
27%
37%
11%
6%
4%
3%
608
754

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK

48%
48%
61%
36%
41%
28%
8%
8%
9%
9%
3%
2%
473
456
433

A5

And which party are you leaning towards voting for?

14%

17%

55%

10%

5%

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

UD

A6

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

SK PARTY
Strong 69%
Might Change 25%
Not Sure 7%

NDP
Strong 70%
Might Change 24%
Not Sure 6%

LIBERAL
Strong 42%
Might Change 44%
Not Sure 13%

A8

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election?

Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will
change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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