Topic3 Human Population 2016 1

Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth
Students will be able to:

-describe the nature and explain the implications of exponential growth in
human populations.
-Calculate and explain, from given data, the values of crude birth rate, crude
death rate, fertility, doubling time and natural increase rate.
Human population
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
growth
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

human populations.
For most of human history the population

grew slowly. But for the last 200 years the
human population has experienced rapid
exponential growth.
1999
1975
domestication of
plants, animals
9000 B.C. (about
11,000 years ago)
agriculturally
based urban
societies
beginning of
industrial,
scientific
revolutions
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

human populations.
3 factors account for increase in

Humans have developed
therate:
ability to expand into
growth
diverse new habitats and different climate zones.
The emergence of early and modern agriculture
has allowed for more people to be fed for each
unit of land area farmed.
The development of sanitation systems,
antibiotics, and vaccines.
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

human populations.
Geographically this growth is unevenly distributed.

- developed countries are growing by 0.1% a year.
faster)
Population (billions)
- developing countries are growing at 1.5%.

4.5
Developing
Countries
3.0
Developed Countries
1.5
0
1950
Projections
1970
1990
Year
2010
2030
(15 times
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

human populations.
What is the carrying capacity of Earth for humans?

(how many humans can the earth support
indefinitely)
This question is difficult to answer.
Some say 2 billion while others say
30 billion.
Estimates are usually based on
food, but advances in technology
can increase available amounts.
Human population growth rate has
been growing more than
exponentially.
We will reach the Earths carrying
capacity if
corrective actions are not made.
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

human populations.
Measuring
Population change = (natality + immigration)
Population
Growth
( mortality+ emigration)
However demographers do not measure populations in
this way.
They use the Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) (annual
percentage rate).
RNI
Crude birth rate crude death rate

= -----------------------------------------------10
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

human populations.
Measuring
Crude birth rate = the number of births per
Population
Growth
thousand individuals (chosen at random) in a
population per year.
Crude death rate = the number of deaths per
Fertility = the potential of reproduction exhibited
in a population.
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

human populations.
Measuring
Crude
birth rate = the number
of births per
Population
Growth

Crude death rate = the number of deaths per
Fertility is the natural capacity to reproduce

and
fertility rate is defined as the offspring per
couple.
It is to be differentiated from fecundity which
is described by scientists and doctors as the
potential to reproduce which is dependent
upon many other factors such as fertilization of
eggs by sperms and the ability to successfully
carry the term of pregnancy.
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

human populations.
Doubling Time
Doubling time = the number of

years it would take a population to
double its size at its current
growth rate.
Doubling time (T) =
70
.
rate of natural increase(g)
Doubling time (T) = 70 . = 50 years
long will it take for the population of the United Sta

ouble?
Crude birth rate = 13
Crude death rate = 8
RNI = (13-8)/10
Doubling time = 70/.5
140 years
w long will it take for the population of Zimbabwe

double?
Crude birth rate = 33
Crude death rate = 9
RNI = (33-9)/10
Doubling time = 70/2.4
29 years
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

human populations.
Population size has limits

beyond which even
humans
can
control:
The
availability
of easily
food and
water
Invasion of parasites, pathogens, or
disease
Over-crowding
Severe or sudden climatic
changes
Pollution of air, soil and water.
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

human populations.
If we do not take
steps to control
human
population
growth, it is
likely that one
or more of
these growthlimiting factors
will eventually
kick in to
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

-Analyze age/sex pyramids and diagrams showing demographic transition
models.
-Discuss the use of models in predicting the growth of human populations.
Age/Sex Pyramids
Show the
proportion of
the
population (or
of each sex)
at each age
level.
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

models.
Demographers usually plot % or #

of male and females in the total
population in each of three
categories:
Male Female
1. Pre-reproductive (0-14)
2. Reproductive (15-44)
3. Post-reproductive (45 and up)
Ages 0-14
Ages 15-44
Ages 45-85+
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

models.
How does Age Structure Affect

Age/Sex
Pyramids help
Population
Growth?
demographers determine the
potential for future growth of a
specific age group as well as that of
the total population .
The overall shape of the pyramid
indicates potential growth.
Age structure diagrams not only
reveal a populations growth trends,
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

models.
MaleFemale
Mal Femal
e
e
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 0-14
Male Female
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Ages 15-44
Male
Female
Negativ
e
Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Ages 45-85+
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

models.
Why would a countrys leaders want to

know the proportion of the population in
different age groups?
What difference does the age of the
people in a country make?
What kinds of products do young people
use?
Older people?
Is it important for a government leader or
planner to knowChina
thevideo
age of population
they are serving?
Russia video
Infant deaths
per 1,000 live births
<10
<10-35
<36-70
<71-100
<100+
Data not
available
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

models.
Demographers have developed a

hypothesis known as the
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.
It describes the changes that take
place as countries become
developed (industrialized).
4 stages of Demographic
Transition:
1. Pre-industrial:
birth rate and
death rate are
both high =
little growth.
2. Transitional: death rate falls due to

improved living and birth rates stay
high = rapid growth.
3. Industrial: fertility falls and closes

gap between birth and death rates
= low growth.
High
80
Relative population size
Birth rate and death rate

(number per 1,000 per year)
4. Stage
Post-industrial:
birth rate
fallsStage
below
1
Stage 2
Stage 3
4
Preindustrial
Industrial
Postindustrial
death rateTransitional
= zero growth.
70
60
Birth rate
50
40
30
Death rate
20
10
Total population
0
Low
growth rate
Increasing
growth rate
Very high Decreasing

Low
Zero
growth rate growth rate growth rate growth rate
Time
Low
Negative
growth
rate
Stage 2
Transitional
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
High
80

Stage 1
Preindustrial
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Low
0
Low
growth rate
Increasing
growth rate

Low
Zero
Time
Negative
growth
rate
4 stages of Demographic
Transition:
Stage 2
Transitional
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
80
70
60
Birth rate
50
40
30
High

Stage 1
Preindustrial
Death rate
20
10
Total population
0
Low
growth rate
Increasing
growth rate

Low
Zero
Time
Low
Negative
growth
rate
What affects fertility

Reasons for
increased fertility
rates?
rates
Importance of children to labor force

Religious beliefs, traditions and culture
Reasons for decreased

fertility rates
Urbanization
Cost of raising and educating children
Education and employment options for
women
Average age of marriage
What affects death

rates?
Reasons for decreased death rates

Higher food supplies
Better nutrition
Improved medical and health
technology
Improved sanitation
Safer water supplies
Topic 3
Human
Population
Growth

models.
Fertility Rates
Replacement level fertility = # of
children a couple needs to produce to
replace themselves
Total fertility rate = estimate of the
average # of children a woman will
produce during her childbearing years
(15-49)
U.S. Households by Size, 17902006

The following table shows the number of U.S. households, the percent distribution of the number of people in those households, and the average population per household
for select years from 1790 to 2006.
1. Covers related persons only; therefore, not strictly comparable with other years.
2. Based on Census 2000 and an expanded sample of households.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Web: www.census.gov .
Percent distribution of number of households

Number of
households
7 or
Avg.
(in
1
2
3
4
5
6
more pop. per
Year
thousands) person persons persons persons persons persons persons household
1790 (Mar.)
558
3.7%
7.8%
11.7% 13.8% 13.9% 13.2% 35.8%
1890 (June)
12,690
3.6
13.2
16.7
16.8
15.1
11.6
23.0
4.93
1900 (Mar.)
15,964
5.1
15.0
17.6
16.9
14.2
10.9
20.4
1930 (Apr.)
29,905
7.9
23.4
20.8
17.5
12.0
7.6
10.9
4.11
1940 (Apr.)
34,949
7.1
24.8
22.4
18.1
11.5
6.8
9.3
3.67
1
1950 (Apr.)
43,468
10.9
28.8
22.6
17.8
10.0
5.1
4.9
3.37
1955 (Mar.)
47,788
10.9
28.5
20.4
18.9
11.1
5.4
4.9
3.33
1960 (Mar.)
52,610
13.1
27.8
18.9
17.6
11.5
5.7
5.4
3.35
1965 (Mar.)
57,251
15.0
28.1
17.9
16.1
11.0
5.8
6.1
3.32
1970 (Mar.)
62,874
17.0
28.8
17.3
15.8
10.4
5.6
5.1
3.14
1975 (Mar.)
71,120
19.6
30.6
17.4
15.6
9.0
4.3
3.5
2.94
1980 (Mar.)
80,776
22.7
31.3
17.5
15.7
7.5
3.1
2.2
2.76
1985 (Mar.)
86,789
23.7
31.6
17.8
15.7
7.0
2.6
1.5
2.69
1990 (Mar.)
93,347
24.6
32.2
17.2
15.5
6.7
2.3
1.4
2.63
1995 (Mar.)
98,990
25.0
32.1
17.0
15.5
6.7
2.3
1.4
2.65
2000 (Mar.)
104,705
25.5
33.1
16.4
14.6
6.7
2.3
1.4
2.62
2
2003 (Mar.)
111,278
26.4
33.3
16.1
14.3
6.3
2.3
1.2
2.57
2
2004 (Mar.)
112,000
26.4
33.4
16.0
14.3
6.4
2.2
1.2
2.57
2005 (Mar.)2
113,300
27.0
33.0
16.0
14.0
6.0
2.0
1.0
2
2006 (Mar.)
114,400
27.0
33.0
17.0
14.0
6.0
2.0
1.0
Crude birth rate crude

death rate
RNI =
-----------------------------------------------10 of
Crude birth rate = the number
births per thousand individuals in a
Crude death rate = the number of
deaths per thousand individuals in a

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Topic 3

Students will be able to:

Students will be able to:

For most of human history the population

Students will be able to:

3 factors account for increase in

Students will be able to:

Geographically this growth is unevenly distributed.

- developing countries are growing at 1.5%.

Students will be able to:

What is the carrying capacity of Earth for humans?

Students will be able to:

Crude birth rate crude death rate

Students will be able to:

Students will be able to:

thousand individuals (chosen at random) in a

Fertility is the natural capacity to reproduce

Students will be able to:

Doubling time = the number of

long will it take for the population of the United Sta

w long will it take for the population of Zimbabwe

Students will be able to:

Population size has limits

Students will be able to:

Students will be able to:

Students will be able to:

Demographers usually plot % or #

Students will be able to:

How does Age Structure Affect

Students will be able to:

Students will be able to:

Why would a countrys leaders want to

Students will be able to:

Demographers have developed a

2. Transitional: death rate falls due to

3. Industrial: fertility falls and closes

Relative population size

Birth rate and death rate

Very high Decreasing

Relative population size

Birth rate and death rate

Very high Decreasing

Birth rate and death rate

Very high Decreasing

What affects fertility

Importance of children to labor force

Reasons for decreased

What affects death

Reasons for decreased death rates

Students will be able to:

U.S. Households by Size, 17902006

Percent distribution of number of households

Crude birth rate crude

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