Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
COMING!
Too Many Cracks to Allow Much Further Delay
2/29/2016
CHART: Growth of Asian Middle Class Dominates Next 20 Years .............................................................................................................. 574
CHART: Global Domestic Demand Growth .................................................................................................................................................... 574
CHART: Fiscal Adjustments Required Deficit Reductions for Fiscal Sustainability..................................................................................... 575
CHART: Over $10 Trillion Pumped Into Global Economy by Developed Economies .................................................................................... 576
CHART: Eventually All this Debt Must be Rolled over or Paid Out................................................................................................................. 576
RESEARCH OF NOTE .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 576
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Global Liquidity Squeeze Has Begun ................................................................................................................. 577
GLOBAL OUTLOOK Biggest Worry" Is Dramatic Decline In Bond Market Liquidity, Prudential Says ...................................................... 580
GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2015 Macro Outlook Proving to be Volatile ............................................................................................................... 581
GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2015 Macro Outlook Forecasts Hinge on a Deteriorating US Economy ................................................................... 584
GLOBAL OUTLOOK 3 of 10 Largest Economies Have Fallen into Recession ........................................................................................... 585
GLOBAL OUTLOOK This is the Biggest Risk to the World's Economy ...................................................................................................... 588
GLOBAL OUTLOOK What is global market turbulence telling us? ............................................................................................................. 592
GLOBAL OUTLOOK Darker Outlook Has Bond Market Rethinking Odds of Economic Downturn ............................................................ 595
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ........................................................................................................................ 597
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ........................................................................................................................ 599
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - THE ECONOMIC ROADMAP AHEAD: It Isn't That Complicated! ............................................................................. 600
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - 20 Signs That the Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire ......................................................................... 605
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Problems Erupting Everywhere (Signs of Implosion) ................................................................................................. 607
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Global Debt Crosses $100 Trillion, Rises By $30 Trillion Since 2007 ........................................................................ 610
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The US as the Global Consumption Engine to See Sub 2% Trend Growth ............................................................ 613
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Credit Fueled Globalization in Retreat ........................................................................................................................ 616
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Rogoff's Sovereign Debt Default Levels ..................................................................................................................... 618
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Imbalances Continue to Increase Along With Financial Fragility ............................................................................... 621
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - A 67 Million Jobs Gap ................................................................................................................................................. 623
GLOBAL SENTIMENT The State Of Economic 'Misery' Around The World ........................................................................................... 729
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Highest Level Since 2007 ................................................................................................................................... 733
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent .......................................................................................................................................................... 734
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent .......................................................................................................................................................... 736
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Nielsens Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns & Spending Intentions ........................................................ 737
CREDIT CYCLE - Reversal Ahead .............................................................................................................................................................. 748
JAPAN - No Way Out But to Expand the Monetary Base ........................................................................................................................... 949
JAPAN - BOJ to "Own" 100% Of GDP In 5 Years....................................................................................................................................... 950
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history ................................................................................................... 953
JAPAN - Some Policies Have Clearly Hit the Limit ..................................................................................................................................... 955
JAPAN - Foreshadows Next Global Crisis .................................................................................................................................................. 956
JAPAN - Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world ....................................................................... 961
JAPAN - Shinzo Abes Monetary-Policy Delusions ..................................................................................................................................... 962
JAPAN - BOJ Governor Job Suddenly Available in Historical "Abenomics U-Turn" .................................................................................. 965
JAPAN - Japanese Economic Policy Goes The Full Ponzi ......................................................................................................................... 966
PBOC CHINA ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 968
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 968
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Debt at 282% of GDP in 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 968
NEW-CHARTS Change in Chinese Bank Assets Since Q4 2008 Compared to Big 4 Central Banks .................................................... 969
CHARTS Chinas Capital Inflow / Outflow ................................................................................................................................................ 969
CHARTS Chinas Falling Holdings of US Treasuries ............................................................................................................................... 970
CHARTS Cumulative % Increases in Pork Since the Start of the Cycle .................................................................................................. 970
CHARTS Severe Supply of Food Staple - Pork ....................................................................................................................................... 971
CHARTS Chinese CPI (Minus Pork) ........................................................................................................................................................ 972
CHARTS Bank Loans in China accelerating at the fastest pace since Financial Crisis. ......................................................................... 972
CHARTS China Reduces Bank Reserve Ratio ........................................................................................................................................ 972
CHARTS Speculation Takes Hold of Sky Rocketing Chinese Stock Market ........................................................................................... 973
CHARTS Falling Chinese Government Revenue Growth ........................................................................................................................ 975
CHARTS Falling National New Residential Housing Starts ..................................................................................................................... 975
CHARTS China and Asia Residential Property Tracking US Housing Bubble ........................................................................................ 976
CHARTS Real Chinese Rates versus Cuts .............................................................................................................................................. 976
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 977
CHINA MONETARY - Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion In Treasuries In The Past Two Week .............................. 977
CHINA MONETARY - China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless ........................................................... 979
CHINA MONETARY - Confusion Reigns At PBoC As Multi-Trillion Yuan Bailout Threatens To Undermine Rate Cuts ........................... 984
CHINA MONETARY - China's "Animal Spirits" May Call For "Draconian" Measures To Curb Rally, UBS Says ...................................... 990
CHINA MONETARY Is China Beginning to Panic as it Lowers Reserve Ratio ....................................................................................... 992
CHINA MONETARY - Liquidity evaporates in China as 'fiscal cliff' nears .................................................................................................. 994
ECB EU ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1000
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1000
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1001
CHARTS EU QE Results An Abject Failure ........................................................................................................................................ 1001
CHARTS Welcome to the EUs NIRP .................................................................................................................................................. 1001
CHARTS Negative Swiss Government Bonds ....................................................................................................................................... 1002
CHARTS Negative Swiss Government Bonds ....................................................................................................................................... 1002
CHARTS UK & German Total Return Indices ........................................................................................................................................ 1003
CHARTS ECBs Dilemma of Digging Up Enough Debt .......................................................................................................................... 1003
CHARTS Nearly $2T European Nonds Trading With Negative Yields .................................................................................................. 1004
CHARTS Total National Debt Germany versus Industrial Country Average (ex-Germany) ............................................................... 1004
CHARTS The Fastest Growing Asset Class NIR Products ................................................................................................................. 1005
CHARTS Euro-Area Output Still Slightly Below Pre-Crisis Levels ......................................................................................................... 1006
CHARTS 5 Year Inflation Swaps Suggests Deflation in the EU ............................................................................................................ 1007
CHARTS Euro-Area Inflation Rate on the Decline Since 2011 .............................................................................................................. 1007
CHARTS Euro-Area Inflation Expectations Decline ............................................................................................................................... 1008
CHARTS Euro-Area Private Sector Loan Creation ................................................................................................................................ 1009
CHARTS Euro-Area Money Supply, Private Sector Lending Growth .................................................................................................... 1009
CHARTS Euro-Area 10 Yr Sovereign Bond Yields ................................................................................................................................ 1010
CHARTS Slovenia May BE the Next EU Debt Hotspot .......................................................................................................................... 1010
CHARTS Spain & Portugal NPL ............................................................................................................................................................. 1011
CHARTS ECBs Turn to Expand Its Balance Sheet ............................................................................................................................... 1012
CHARTS ECBs Balance Sheet Contracted Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................................. 1012
CHARTS Expect Major ECB Policy Announcement in Q2 2014 ............................................................................................................ 1013
CHARTS ECB Set to Stay on Hold as Inflation Seen Lower ................................................................................................................. 1014
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1015
EU MONETARY - Draghi Failed: European Inflation Expectations Slide To Pre-QE Level ..................................................................... 1016
EU MONETARY - NIRP Is A Flawed Economic Concept ......................................................................................................................... 1017
EU MONETARY - NIRP ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1019
EU MONETARY NIRP - Yield scarce as the world turns negative ........................................................................................................ 1023
EU MONETARY - Draghi Key Statements ................................................................................................................................................ 1026
EU MONETARY - Draghi throws ECB door open to money printing as global prospects dim ................................................................. 1027
EU MONETARY - Economic Recovery Too Weak for ECB to Avoid New Action .................................................................................... 1029
EU MONETARY - Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points toward QE ......................................................................................................... 1031
EU MONETARY - EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases To Drive Euro Down .......................................................................... 1033
MACRO MONETARY INFLATION ................................................................................................................................................................... 1035
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1035
NEW-CHARTS US 5Y5Y Forward Swap ................................................................................................................................................... 1035
CHARTS The Fall of Hyperinflation & the Rise of Deflation ...................................................................................................................... 1035
CHARTS Falling US Consumer Price Index .............................................................................................................................................. 1036
CHARTS Global Consumer Prices are Rising Significantly ....................................................................................................................... 1037
CHARTS Global Country Inflation Rates ................................................................................................................................................ 1037
CHARTS Two Worlds if Inflation EM and DM ..................................................................................................................................... 1037
NEW-CHARTS Premium investors demand to hold EM debt over U.S. Treasuries widened to 481 .................................................... 1184
NEW-CHARTS Capital Controls Arrive In Emerging Markets China & Azerbiajan ............................................................................ 1184
NEW-CHARTS EM Credit Outstanding in US Dollars Increased $17.7T Since 2006 ........................................................................... 1185
NEW-CHARTS EM Credit Has Expanded Dramatically Compared to Developed Markets .................................................................. 1186
CHARTS Emerging Market 10 Year Shift in Share of World GDP 2004 to 2014 ............................................................................... 1187
CHARTS Emerging Market Fx in Freefall ............................................................................................................................................... 1187
CHARTS Total Economy Debt as a % of GDP India, Poland, Ireland and Spain .............................................................................. 1187
CHARTS Global FX Reserves 2000 versus 2005 versus 2015 .......................................................................................................... 1188
CHARTS GDP per Capita Income .......................................................................................................................................................... 1189
CHARTS EMERGING ASIA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 .................................................................................... 1190
CHARTS Brazil in or Near a Serious Recession .................................................................................................................................... 1190
CHARTS Collapsing Currencies in Columbia and Chile ......................................................................................................................... 1191
CHARTS The Unwind of EM Credit, Chinas Leverage and US Monetary Easing ................................................................................ 1192
CHARTS The Tale of Two Economies Chile versus Portugal ............................................................................................................ 1193
CHARTS Emerging & Developed Economy Growth Rates Converge ................................................................................................... 1194
CHARTS Emerging Market Currency Sell-Off ........................................................................................................................................ 1194
CHARTS Emerging Markets Stocks versus Developed Market Stocks ................................................................................................. 1195
CHARTS Investors Are Pulling Money From Developing Markets ........................................................................................................ 1196
CHARTS Valuation of EM Stocks is Falling Against Developed Markets .............................................................................................. 1196
CHARTS EM Capital Outflows Surge Towards $1T .............................................................................................................................. 1197
CHARTS Developing Nation Currencies Plunge After Chinas Devaluation Rattles Markets ............................................................... 1197
CHARTS Emerging Markets Facing Both Capital Out Flows and Falling Currencies ........................................................................... 1199
CHARTS Wide Spread Emerging Market Capital Out Flows ................................................................................................................. 1200
CHARTS Emerging Market Debt versus GDP - 2013 ............................................................................................................................ 1201
CHARTS Emerging Market Resilience Indicator Changes .................................................................................................................... 1201
CHARTS BRIC Countries Responsible for 43% of Global Growth ........................................................................................................ 1202
CHARTS BRIC & Emerging Market Inflation Rates ............................................................................................................................... 1202
CHARTS Emerging Market Default Probability ...................................................................................................................................... 1203
CHARTS Emerging Market versus Developed Market Public Debt and External Borrowing Positions ................................................ 1203
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows...................................................................................................................................................... 1204
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows -2 ................................................................................................................................................. 1204
CHARTS Developed versus Emerging Equity Markets 1990-2014 .................................................................................................... 1205
CHARTS Total GEM Flows..................................................................................................................................................................... 1205
CHARTS The Emerging Markets Have Been Weakening Since 2011 .................................................................................................. 1206
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1207
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Markets Running Scared with Capital Controls ..................................................................... 1207
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - For Emerging Markets, It Is Now Worse Than the Asian Financial Crisis ............................................. 1208
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Be Very Afraid: "The 3 EM Debacles" Loom, HSBC Warns .................................................................. 1211
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Market Currencies To Crash 30-50%, Jen Says ............................................................................. 1214
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Market Mayhem: Gross Warns Of "Debacle" As Currencies, Bonds Collapse .............................. 1216
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: Redrawing the world map ................................................................................................. 1222
EMERGING MARKETS - Lost Decade in Emerging Markets: Investors Already Halfway There ............................................................ 1229
EMERGING MARKETS - JP Morgan Has A "Problem" With Emerging Markets ..................................................................................... 1234
EMERGING MARKETS - Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" .............................................................. 1237
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: The great unraveling ......................................................................................................... 1239
EMERGING MARKETS - Moodys warns on EM dollar finance costs ...................................................................................................... 1244
EMERGING MARKETS - Fragile Five: The new focus of currency wars ............................................................................................. 1245
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Redux? ................................................................................................................................................... 1246
EMERGING MARKETS - Losing Their Punch ....................................................................................................................................... 1251
EMERGING MARKETS - Risk-On!........................................................................................................................................................... 1253
EMERGING MARKETS - Asia, BRIC, Emerging Markets Crater IBM Earnings .................................................................................. 1254
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted .............................................................................................................................. 1256
EMERGING MARKETS - Increasing Liquidity Problems In Selected Markets .................................................................................. 1257
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................. 1263
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................. 1268
EMERGING MARKETS - EM Crisis will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem like an Early Warning ................................................... 1272
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Deleveraging Accelerating and Developing Nations Feeling the Pain ........................................ 1275
CHINAs CREDIT GROWTH Reverses Direction ............................................................................................................................................. 1278
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1278
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1279
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Reserves Have Fallen Steadily Since the Completion of US TAPER ............................................ 1279
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Reserve Total and Monthly Change ................................................................................................ 1279
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Bank Asset Growth Dwarfs Developed Economies Central Banks .......................................................... 1280
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Official GDP Growth Rate Continues to Fall .............................................................................................. 1282
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 1282
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Inflation Rate versus Real Interest Rate .................................................................................................... 1283
CHINA LIQUIDITY Bank Loan Growth ................................................................................................................................................... 1283
CHINA LIQUIDITY Policy Rate, RRR and Loan Growth ........................................................................................................................ 1284
CHINA LIQUIDITY Declining Private Sector Fixed Asset Investment ................................................................................................... 1284
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Third of Chinese GDP Now Goes to Repay Interest and Principle on Existing Loans ............................................ 1285
CHINA LIQUIDITY Infrastructure Investment Offsets Weak Real Estate .............................................................................................. 1286
CHINA LIQUIDITY Shadow Banks Step Back Into Light ....................................................................................................................... 1286
CHINA LIQUIDITY Hopes that Credit Growth Will Spur Property Sales ................................................................................................ 1287
CHINA LIQUIDITY Transport, Construction Data Point to Slower Growth ............................................................................................ 1287
CHINA LIQUIDITY Little Impetus for Turnaround in Investor Sentiment ............................................................................................... 1288
CHINA LIQUIDITY Industrial Output & Exports Continue to Trend the Wrong Way ............................................................................. 1289
GOLD WARS Failing Developed Economies versus Rising Emerging Economies......................................................................................... 1408
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1408
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1410
GOLD WARS Plummeting Gold Holdings at NY Fed from Foreign Repatriation .................................................................................. 1410
GOLD WARS Gold : Debt Ratio Correlation Something Seriously Amiss! ......................................................................................... 1410
GOLD WARS Nominal & Real Price of Gold 1790-2013 .................................................................................................................... 1412
GOLD WARS Gold v S&P 500 Against True Austrian Money Supply ................................................................................................... 1412
GOLD WARS Swiss National Bank Gold, FX & Total Assets ................................................................................................................ 1413
GOLD WARS Sovereign Gold Holdings According to the World Gold Council ..................................................................................... 1413
GOLD WARS European Countries Gold Reserves Repatriation ........................................................................................................... 1414
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1416
GOLD WARS - Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal in Over Ten Years ........................................................... 1416
GOLD WARS - European Nations Repatriate Gold Reserves from United States Vaults ....................................................................... 1417
GOLD WARS - Gold Shortage, Worst in 21st Century, And India Just Made It Worse ............................................................................ 1420
GOLD WARS - Deutsche Bank's Modest Proposal To Central Banks: "Purchase The Gold Held By Private Households" ................... 1422
INTERNATIONAL BANKING & SHADOW BANKING ......................................................................................................................................... 1424
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1426
DEBT Growth of Financial Services ....................................................................................................................................................... 1427
DEBT REITS & CMBS Growth ............................................................................................................................................................... 1427
DEBT - GLOBAL DEBT 313% of GDP...................................................................................................................................................... 1429
DEBT - 202M GLOBALLY UNEMPLOYED DEBTORS ............................................................................................................................ 1431
FOOD PRICES & SHORTAGES Potential Disruption...................................................................................................................................... 1432
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1432
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1433
CHARTS Cost of Thanksgiving Food ..................................................................................................................................................... 1433
CHARTS Consumer Price Increases Predominately Food in Emerging Economies ............................................................................ 1433
CHARTS Sticker Shock in Isle 1 ............................................................................................................................................................. 1434
CHARTS Food Importers ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1434
CHARTS US Beef Production To Reach 5 Years of Decline ................................................................................................................. 1435
CHARTS US CPI Turns Up on Food & Energy ...................................................................................................................................... 1436
CHARTS CRB US Spot Foodstuff Index One Year ............................................................................................................................ 1436
CHARTS CRB Food Index One Year .................................................................................................................................................. 1438
CHARTS Global Food Price Change 2007-2013 ................................................................................................................................... 1439
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1440
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1441
CHARTS Retail Food Services and Drinking Place Sales ..................................................................................................................... 1441
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures .......................................................................................................................................... 1443
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures - 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 1444
CHARTS Spiking Beef Prices ................................................................................................................................................................. 1445
CHARTS Coffee Futures ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1445
CHARTS Lean Hog Futures ................................................................................................................................................................... 1446
CHARTS Ukraine Corn and Wheat Prices Up 15% Since YB ............................................................................................................ 1446
CHARTS Global Food Imports versus % Y-o-Y US$ Change ............................................................................................................... 1447
CHARTS UK Food Retailers v Commodity Food Price Index ................................................................................................................ 1447
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1448
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices Surge as Drought Exacts a High Toll on Crops .................................................................................. 1448
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices, Driver of Social Unrest ..................................................................................................................... 1451
FOOD INFLATION - Food Price Manipulation in Thailand........................................................................................................................ 1452
CYBER WARS Growing Threat & the Security-Surveillance Complex ............................................................................................................ 1454
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1454
SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - NSA Whistleblower Example: Booz Hamilton ..................................................................... 1457
SECURITY SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - Growing Without Public Control or Supervision! ............................................................... 1460
CYBER SPYING ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1461
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Lack of Capital Expenditure Has Inevitably Lead to Italian Budget Shortfalls ................................................ 1692
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Debt & NGDP Diverge ..................................................................................................................................... 1692
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bank Assets versus NGDP ................................................................................................................... 1693
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bank Loans Outstanding By Sector Households, Government & Non-Financial .............................. 1694
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Gross Investment versus France .......................................................................................................... 1694
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Falling Real Labor Productivity Per Person Italy versus France .................................................................. 1695
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Measuring Italian Bad Debt ............................................................................................................................. 1695
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Debt Maturity Profile w/ Implied Roll-Over and Estimated Deficits....................................................... 1696
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Interest Paid on the Public Debt ........................................................................................................... 1696
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Target2 Liabilities Held By Banca dItalia ........................................................................................................ 1697
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Marketable Securities Held by Banca dItalia .................................................................................................. 1697
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Real Annual Gross Wages .................................................................................................................... 1698
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Government Gross and Net Debt Comparisons as % of NGDP .......................................................... 1699
CHARTS - ITALY Non-Performing Loans by Region ............................................................................................................................. 1700
CHARTS - ITALY Gross Italian Impaired Loans..................................................................................................................................... 1701
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Government Debt ............................................................................................................................................ 1701
CHARTS - ITALY Banks Non-Performing Loans .................................................................................................................................. 1702
CHARTS - ITALY Quarterly GDP Growth .............................................................................................................................................. 1703
CHARTS - ITALY 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.3% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 1703
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................ 1705
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Core Inflation ................................................................................................................................................... 1705
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Industrial Porduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1706
CHARTS - ITALY Meal Affordability Deteriorates .................................................................................................................................. 1707
CHARTS - ITALY Falling Oil & Gas Consumption ................................................................................................................................. 1708
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bond Yields ..................................................................................................................................................... 1708
CHARTS - ITALY Slips Back Into Recession ......................................................................................................................................... 1709
CHARTS - ITALY 10 Year Bond Yields Fall to Record Low .................................................................................................................. 1710
CHARTS - ITALY - Forced Rate Cuts ....................................................................................................................................................... 1711
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1712
NEW-RESEARCH How Italy Will Fail And Drag Down The European Project ..................................................................................... 1712
RESEARCH Italy Youth Unemployment Hits Record High 44.2%, Concerns Rising "Recession Exit May Be Unsustainable"........... 1723
RESEARCH Italy Is "Willing To Temporarily Suspend Schengen" In Response To Refugee Crisis 09-02-15 Zero Hedge ................ 1726
RESEARCH Italy Non-Performing Loans Hit A New Record High ..................................................................................................... 1731
RESEARCH Demographic Devastation: Italy's Birth Rate Drops To 150 Year Low ............................................................................. 1736
RESEARCH Italy Falls Back Into Recession, Raising Concerns for Eurozone ..................................................................................... 1738
RESEARCH - Italys Downward Spiral ...................................................................................................................................................... 1742
RESEARCH - Italys Budget Failures, Weak Growth Outlook Call Debt Sustainability Into Question ..................................................... 1744
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1748
ITALIAN ELECTION - What You Need to Know ....................................................................................................................................... 1748
ITALIAN ELECTION - Europe Capitulates On Austerity- Never Had The Stomach For It ................................................................. 1750
ITALIAN ELECTION - Message Given By the People ............................................................................................................................ 1752
ITALIAN ELECTION - Bad Debt Continue to Soar .................................................................................................................................... 1756
ITALIAN ELECTION - Italians React Badly to Austerity, Elections Hardly a Surprise!........................................................................... 1759
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #1 ............................................................................................................................. 1760
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #2 ............................................................................................................................. 1762
ITALIAN ELECTION - Regional Financial Cracks in Sicily .................................................................................................................. 1765
FRANCE HOLLANDE SAYS FRANCE IN STATE OF ECONOMIC EMERGENCY AS STATE OF EMERGENCY ENSHRINED INTO
CONSTITUTION .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1767
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1767
CHARTS FRANCE Total Net Government Liabilities .......................................................................................................................... 1767
CHARTS FRANCE Industrial production stagnated in February - 15% below pre-crisis levels. ........................................................ 1767
CHARTS FRANCE Bankruptcies Soar as Profitability Slumps ........................................................................................................... 1768
CHARTS FRANCE Post Hollande Election Results Jobseekers and 10 Year Yield ....................................................................... 1768
CHARTS FRANCE French Job Seekers ............................................................................................................................................. 1769
CHARTS FRANCE Inflation Expectations ........................................................................................................................................... 1769
CHARTS - FRANCE Hollande Popularity Gap Heading for a Record Low ........................................................................................... 1770
CHARTS - FRANCE Austerity Doesnt Get You Re-Elected ................................................................................................................. 1770
CHARTS - FRANCE Worlds Worst PMI Ranking in June ..................................................................................................................... 1771
CHARTS - FRANCE Near-record high bankruptcies and record-low profitability .................................................................................. 1772
CHARTS - FRANCE Frances PMI Trend Weakness Beginning to Stand Out...................................................................................... 1772
CHARTS - FRANCE Manufacturing Divergence With Germany Widens .............................................................................................. 1773
CHARTS - FRANCE - GDP ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1774
CHARTS - FRANCE - UNEMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................................................ 1775
CHARTS - FRANCE - BUDGET DEFICIT ................................................................................................................................................. 1776
CHARTS - FRANCE - TAX v GDP ............................................................................................................................................................ 1777
CHARTS - FRANCE - BUSINESS CONFIDENCE.................................................................................................................................... 1778
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1779
NEW-RESEARCH Hollande says France in state of economic emergency .......................................................................................... 1779
NEW-RESEARCH France Just Enshrined Its "State Of Emergency" In the Constitution ..................................................................... 1779
NEW-RESEARCH France Changes Constitution to Protect "Emergency" Police Powers from Court Challenges .............................. 1780
NEW-RESEARCH France's Far-Right Party Calls For Nation To "Re-Arm Itself", Revoke Muslims' Passports .................................. 1782
RESEARCH Moody's Downgrades France, Blames "Political Constraints", Sees No Material Reduction in Debt Burden ................. 1783
RESEARCH When It Comes To Total Debt, Greece Is Not That Much Worse Than France (Or The USA) ................................. 1787
RESEARCH Economic Malaise Sparks Political Crisis in France ......................................................................................................... 1788
RESEARCH - France In "Political Turmoil" After Hollande Unexpectedly Dissolves Government .......................................................... 1790
RESEARCH Prime Minister Manuel Vall Resigns .................................................................................................................................. 1792
RESEARCH - European Voters Are Revolting; France Warns "Situation Is Grave for France, Europe" ................................................. 1792
RESEARCH - Steady Breakdown Underway ......................................................................................................................................... 1795
RESEARCH - France Loses its Coveted and NEEDED AAA Rating ................................................................................................... 1799
SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1801
FRANCE - An astoundingly high number of French people don't have faith in Hollande 05-02-15 BI ..................................................... 1801
FRANCE - French utility EDF seeks to cut workers 10-week holiday quota 05-26-15 FT ....................................................................... 1801
FRANCE - What You Need to Know ......................................................................................................................................................... 1803
FRANCE - Key Indicators .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1804
FRANCE: Sharpest Drop in Private Sector Output in Four Years ............................................................................................................ 1808
FRANCE - Quits on Austerity - Never a Doubt This Would Happen...................................................................................................... 1811
FRANCE - Socialism is Expensive ......................................................................................................................................................... 1812
FRANCE - Has Turned back to Socialism ................................................................................................................................................. 1814
FRANCE - Losing Its Way through Political Illusions and Lies ................................................................................................................. 1815
FRANCE - Uncompetitive .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1816
FRANCE - Titan Tire Calls Out French Labor ........................................................................................................................................... 1818
FRANCE - France Responds to Titan Tire ................................................................................................................................................ 1820
FRANCE - What Happens In France When Companies Fire People ....................................................................................................... 1822
FRANCE - Hollande's Economically Insane campaign Promise ............................................................................................................... 1823
GERMANY GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER WARNS OF FOUNDATION BEING LAID FOR AN ECONOMIC CRISIS ............................... 1825
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1825
CHARTS - GERMANY GDP Growth ...................................................................................................................................................... 1825
CHARTS - GERMANY 10-year Bund yields have now moved above JGB yields ................................................................................. 1826
CHARTS - GERMANY German Industrial Output -0.5% MM, +0.1% YY .............................................................................................. 1827
CHARTS - GERMANY Germany now leading the way back up in Euro Zone ...................................................................................... 1827
CHARTS - GERMANY On rolling bi-weekly basis, the 10-yr Bund yield rise of 43 bps is about as big as it gets in recent history ..... 1828
CHARTS - GERMANY - 1.179% 30 Year Bond Yield .............................................................................................................................. 1829
CHARTS - GERMANY 2 Year Sovereign Yield Goes Negative ............................................................................................................ 1829
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Sovereign Bund versus US10 Treasury .............................................................................................. 1829
CHARTS - GERMANY German & Japanese Yield Curves Are Remarkably Close .............................................................................. 1830
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Y European Yields........................................................................................................................................ 1831
CHARTS - GERMANY German Unemployment .................................................................................................................................... 1832
CHARTS - GERMANY German Core Inflation ....................................................................................................................................... 1832
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Sovereign Bund versus US10 Treasury .............................................................................................. 1832
CHARTS - GERMANY Expectations Component Peaked In January ................................................................................................... 1833
CHARTS - GERMANY Ifo Rolls-Over..................................................................................................................................................... 1833
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Bund Below 1% ................................................................................................................................... 1834
CHARTS - GERMANY - Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................... 1834
CHARTS - GERMANY - IFO Investor Confidence .................................................................................................................................... 1835
CHARTS - GERMANY - ZEW Expectations .............................................................................................................................................. 1836
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1838
NEW-RESEARCH - German Finance Minister: Expansive policies may have laid foundation of next crisis........................................... 1838
NEW-RESEARCH - Furious Germans Stage Massive Anti-Islam Protest ............................................................................................... 1838
NEW-RESEARCH - Germany Has Repatriated Over 366 Tonnes Of Gold From New York And Paris .................................................. 1846
RESEARCH - U.S. Will Station New Nuclear Weapons in Germany against Russia ............................................................................... 1853
RESEARCH - Refugee Crises At Dangerous Tipping Point As Hungary Deploys Army, Germany Loses Patience ............................... 1854
RESEARCH - Why Volkswagen Is Systematically Important For Germany And Europe ......................................................................... 1858
RESEARCH - Europe's Woes: The Escalating Cost to Germany ............................................................................................................. 1861
RESEARCH - Bundesbank Blasts Draghi For Breaking Bailout Taboo .................................................................................................... 1864
RESEARCH - Five charts that show Germany is heading into recession 10-19-14 The Guardian.......................................................... 1865
RESEARCH - Draghi signaled additional monetary easing is likely to materialize - Possibly by September .......................................... 1868
RESEARCH - Germany close to recession as ECB admits recovery is weak.......................................................................................... 1870
RESEARCH - Merkel's Third Chancellorship Challenges .................................................................................................................... 1871
RESEARCH - German Election - Merkel Begins Hunt for Coalition Partners........................................................................................... 1875
RESEARCH - Europe's Shadow Economy: As Big As Germany.............................................................................................................. 1876
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1880
GERMANY - Anti Euro AfD Party May Cost Merkel in Critical September Election ......................................................................... 1881
GERMANY - The Euro Crisis Escalation over Cyprus May Politically Cripple Merkel ..................................................................... 1882
GERMANY - Call for End of "Coercive Euro Association" ........................................................................................................................ 1884
IBERIAN PENINSULA LEFT BLOC ASCENDING AGAINST PORTUGALS SOCIALISTS ........................................................................... 1886
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1886
CHARTS - SPAIN Spains Debt-to-GDP ................................................................................................................................................. 1886
CHARTS - SPAIN Spains & Portugals Unemployment Rate June 2015 Seasonally Adjusted ......................................................... 1886
CHARTS - SPAIN Spanish Industrial Production Output +1.0% MM, +2.9% YY ................................................................................... 1886
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Share of Lower Skilled Workers ....................................................................................................................... 1887
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Non-Performing Loans...................................................................................................................................... 1888
CHARTS - SPAIN 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.5% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 1889
CHARTS - SPAIN 10 Year Bond Yield At 2.37% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................. 1889
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Yields Hit Low After BES Bailout ..................................................................................................................... 1890
CHARTS - PORTUGAL - Deficit Problem ................................................................................................................................................. 1891
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1892
NEW-RESEARCH - Did Austerity Really Win Out in Portugal? ........................................................................................................... 1892
RESEARCH - Spain's Economic Recovery Is "One Big Lie" ............................................................................................................... 1892
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ............................................................................................... 1896
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ............................................................................................... 1899
RESEARCH - Presidential Warning Spikes Yields To 8 Months Highs .............................................................................................. 1903
RESEARCH - Clear Signs of Desperation In Spain from a Growing Collateral Contagion .............................................................. 1905
CHINA: CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, FALLING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT & NOW US TREASURY SALES ................... 1931
CHINA .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1931
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1931
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Hot Money Flows ............................................................................................................................................. 1931
NEW-CHARTS Capital Outflows and Falling Foreign Direct Investment ............................................................................................... 1932
NEW-CHARTS Exchange Rates & Foreign Exchange Reserves .......................................................................................................... 1932
NEW-CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings v-China FX Reserves ....................................................................................... 1933
NEW-CHARTS Belgiums US Treasury Holdings .................................................................................................................................. 1933
NEW-CHARTS China Containerized Freight Index ............................................................................................................................... 1934
NEW-CHARTS China Fiscal Spending Y-o-Y Increase ......................................................................................................................... 1934
NEW-CHARTS GDP Growth Steady At 6.9% in Q3 2015 ..................................................................................................................... 1935
NEW-CHARTS Debt Fueled But Not Much Growth ............................................................................................................................... 1935
NEW-CHARTS Chinese New Loan Breakdown ..................................................................................................................................... 1936
NEW-CHARTS CAI Suggests China Economic Activity Below Reported GDP .................................................................................... 1936
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Bank NPLs Are Gradually Rising Every Quarter ............................................................................................ 1937
NEW-CHARTS A Tale of Two Economies ............................................................................................................................................. 1937
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Investment Share of GDP Higher than Ever in Japan or Korea ...................................................................... 1939
NEW-CHARTS China Treasury Holding Have Peaked But US Commercial Banks Taking Uo the Slack ............................................ 1940
NEW-CHARTS China 2014 Labor Force Declines First Time in at Least Two Decades ...................................................................... 1940
NEW-CHARTS Ponzi Finance: Chinese Firms Are Issuing More Debt Just to Pay Interest ................................................................. 1941
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Global Trade Index 2001 ............................................................................................................................. 1941
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Imports Exports ........................................................................................................................................... 1943
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Economic Weakness Wider Deeper In September ...................................................................................... 1944
CHARTS Sinking Li Keqiamg Index Contrasts With Stable GDP .......................................................................................................... 1945
CHARTS China is the Undisputed Engine of Global Growth ................................................................................................................. 1946
CHARTS China Has Been Consuming Mind-Boggling Amounts of Raw Materials ............................................................................... 1946
CHARTS Fixed Asset Investment & Consumption in China Y-o-Y Growth ........................................................................................ 1947
CHARTS Fixed Asset Investment Rises Least Since 2000 ................................................................................................................... 1948
CHARTS Economic Indicators Point to Lower Growth than the Headline Figures ................................................................................ 1948
CHARTS Gains of Real Estate Development Investment 1/10th of 2010 Pace ..................................................................................... 1949
CHARTS Foreign Exports to China as a % of GDP ............................................................................................................................... 1949
CHARTS Foreign Exports to China for Chinas Domestic Use as a % of GDP ..................................................................................... 1950
CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings vs China FX Reserves ................................................................................................. 1951
CHARTS Breakdown of Chinese Imports ............................................................................................................................................... 1952
CHARTS Chinese Imports Slow to 5 Year Low...................................................................................................................................... 1953
CHARTS Chinas Increasing Substitution of Imports for Made in China Products .............................................................................. 1953
CHARTS Developing Economies Exposure to Chinese Domestic Demand ......................................................................................... 1954
CHARTS Chinas GDP Monthly Tracker and Target .............................................................................................................................. 1955
CHARTS China Matters Less for US Consumers than for Stock Investors ........................................................................................... 1955
CHARTS Monthly Change in Foreign Reserves .................................................................................................................................... 1956
CHARTS Monthly FX Purchases ............................................................................................................................................................ 1957
CHARTS Chinas Estimated Productivity Growth Based on IP & Employment Shifts ........................................................................... 1957
CHARTS Shanghai Composite Index Profits% Y-o-Y ......................................................................................................................... 1958
CHARTS Corporate & Household Debt as % GDP ................................................................................................................................ 1958
CHARTS Weak Yuan Supported Much of 21-Year Export Rise to U.S. ................................................................................................ 1959
CHARTS Outstanding Balance of Margin Finance Shanghai Composite ........................................................................................... 1960
CHARTS Currency Rout Goes Global as Risk Seen of 50% Loss ........................................................................................................ 1960
CHARTS Yuan Trading Band ................................................................................................................................................................. 1961
CHARTS Historical Yuan FX Pattern...................................................................................................................................................... 1962
CHARTS China Plans to Spend Billions on Infrastructure in Pakistan .................................................................................................. 1963
CHARTS Chinas Proposed Silk Road Routes....................................................................................................................................... 1964
CHARTS China Activity Proxy & Official GDP........................................................................................................................................ 1965
CHARTS China Relaxes Commercial Bank Reserves ........................................................................................................................... 1966
CHARTS Chinese Balance of Payments ................................................................................................................................................ 1966
CHARTS Chinese Hot Money Flows ...................................................................................................................................................... 1967
CHARTS Falling Chinese Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................... 1967
CHARTS Commodity Prices % Change Since July 2014 ...................................................................................................................... 1968
CHARTS Chinese Steel Demand, Iron Ore ............................................................................................................................................ 1968
CHARTS Chinese Rail Freight ............................................................................................................................................................... 1969
CHARTS Chinese Bank Assets versus US Bank Assets ....................................................................................................................... 1970
CHARTS Chinese Leverage and Underlying Nominal GDP .................................................................................................................. 1970
CHARTS Measures of Real & Nominal GDP Growth in China .............................................................................................................. 1971
CHARTS Chinese Total Debt & Breakdown........................................................................................................................................... 1971
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts .......................................................................................................................... 1972
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts-2 ....................................................................................................................... 1973
CHARTS - JAPAN BOJs Accelerating Purchases of Equity Funds Seen as Driving Force of Tokyo Share Markets ......................... 2042
CHARTS - JAPAN More than a Fourth of Japans Population is Over the Age of 65 ........................................................................... 2043
CHARTS - JAPAN IMFs Forecast of Japanese Population Growth...................................................................................................... 2043
CHARTS - JAPAN Prefectures with More Seniors Saw Steeper GDP Losses ..................................................................................... 2044
CHARTS - JAPAN Aging Population Will Continue Dragging Down Growth......................................................................................... 2044
CHARTS - JAPAN Fewer, Older Citizens Facing Larger Debt Burden ................................................................................................. 2045
CHARTS - JAPAN 20 Years Later China Follows Japans Pattern ....................................................................................................... 2046
CHARTS - JAPAN Financial Repression Gets Heavier in Japan .......................................................................................................... 2046
CHARTS - JAPAN Inventory Build Up Keeps Q1 GDP Afloat ............................................................................................................... 2047
CHARTS - JAPAN 48 Month Trade Balance Deficit .............................................................................................................................. 2048
CHARTS - JAPAN Y-o-Y Contracting Imports ....................................................................................................................................... 2048
CHARTS - JAPAN Monetary Base versus USDJPY .............................................................................................................................. 2049
CHARTS - JAPAN Japan National Debt Rises To 1,053,357,200,000,000......................................................................................... 2049
CHARTS - JAPAN 1.174% 30 Year Bond Yield ..................................................................................................................................... 2051
CHARTS - JAPAN 2 Year Yield Goes Negative..................................................................................................................................... 2051
CHARTS - JAPAN Savings Rate Goes Negative ................................................................................................................................... 2051
CHARTS - JAPAN Stagnate Housing Starts with Historic Low 35 Year Mortgages .............................................................................. 2052
CHARTS - JAPAN Non-Resident Net Investment in Japanese Stocks ................................................................................................. 2052
CHARTS - JAPAN Shifting Demographics - Birth versus Deaths .......................................................................................................... 2053
CHARTS JAPAN Nikkei Strength is all Relative ............................................................................................................................... 2053
CHARTS - JAPAN Trade Balance .......................................................................................................................................................... 2054
CHARTS - JAPAN 10 Year Treasury Approaching Zero (12-27-14) ..................................................................................................... 2055
CHARTS - JAPAN BOJ Reserve Balances ............................................................................................................................................ 2056
CHARTS - JAPAN Macro Crisis Zones .................................................................................................................................................. 2057
CHARTS - JAPAN Demographics .......................................................................................................................................................... 2058
CHARTS - JAPAN Fiscal Deficit versus BOJ Balance Sheet ................................................................................................................ 2058
CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Economy versus the Rest of the World ...................................................................................................... 2059
CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Decline in Real Interest Rates .................................................................................................................... 2060
CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese GDP Annualized Q-o-Q ........................................................................................................................... 2061
CHARTS - JAPAN Bankruptcies Due to Depreciating Yen .................................................................................................................... 2062
CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese & German Yield Curves Are Remarkably Close ...................................................................................... 2062
CHARTS Q2 GDP Downturn Even Worse Than Though or Looks........................................................................................................ 2064
CHARTS Real Incomes Falling at Fastest Rate in a Decade ................................................................................................................ 2064
CHARTS Japan Exports Remained Subdued ........................................................................................................................................ 2065
CHARTS Past Yen Strength Pushed Production Off-Shore .................................................................................................................. 2065
CHARTS Japans Export Majors Lost Tech Battle ................................................................................................................................. 2066
CHARTS Japans Stalled Inflation Adds Pressure for Second Round of Stimulus ................................................................................ 2067
CHARTS Japan Adjusted Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................................... 2067
CHARTS Japan BoP Current Account Balance .................................................................................................................................. 2068
CHARTS 5T Yen of JGB Selling ............................................................................................................................................................. 2068
CHARTS Sovereign Debt % of Tax Revenue ........................................................................................................................................ 2069
CHARTS Public Sector Debt Issuances 2013 as % GDP ...................................................................................................................... 2070
CHARTS - GDP Trend ............................................................................................................................................................................... 2070
CHARTS - CPI Trend ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2071
CHARTS - JAPAN - GDP Resurgence ...................................................................................................................................................... 2071
CHARTS - JAPAN - BOJ Balance Sheet .................................................................................................................................................. 2072
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2073
NEW-JAPAN Safes Sell Out In Japan, 1,000 Franc Note Demand Soars As NIRP Triggers Cash Hoarding .............................. 2073
NEW-JAPAN "There Will Be Hyperinflation" Japanese Lawmaker Warns "Kuroda Got It Wrong" With NIRP .......................... 2075
NEW-JAPAN Abenomics Fails Miserably As Japan's Workers "Get Nothing" In 2015 ................................................................. 2078
JAPAN Paul Krugman Is "Really, Really Worried" That He Might Have Screwed Up Japan ........................................................ 2081
JAPAN S&P Downgrades Japan from AA- To A+ On Doubts Abenomics Will Work - Full Text .................................................. 2084
JAPAN Elderly Japanese Population Hits New Record - Demographic Death-Rattle Continues ................................................ 2086
JAPAN Bank Of Japan Buying Power Runs Dry: "If They Don't Increase Now, It's Going To Be A Shock!" ............................. 2090
JAPAN Abe Ratings Crash to Record Lows, Japan Lowers Minimum Voting Age ....................................................................... 2092
JAPAN Japan Now Spends 43% Of Tax Revenue To Fund Interest On Debt ................................................................................. 2095
JAPAN Japan Still the Worlds Top Credit? ....................................................................................................................................... 2096
JAPAN Bank of Japan Relaxing All-Out Approach to Hitting Inflation Target ........................................................................................ 2097
JAPAN Japanese trading firms to cut investments, sell assets ...................................................................................................... 2098
JAPAN The BOJ Ups The Ante ............................................................................................................................................................ 2100
JAPAN Is Japan Kaput? ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2101
JAPAN - Pace of 60 to 70 trillion yen a year May Become "Open Ended" ............................................................................................... 2104
JAPAN - Japanese Financial Repression - Changes in Allocation of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming ...................................... 2106
JAPAN - 3 Arrows of ABE-nomics Not Working ........................................................................................................................................ 2109
JAPAN - Stalled Inflation Adds Pressure for Second Round of Stimulus ................................................................................................. 2111
JAPAN - Japanese Financial Repression - Changes in Allocation of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming ...................................... 2112
JAPAN - Japan bond market liquidity dries up as BoJ holding crosses 200tn........................................................................................ 2114
JAPAN - Abe Approval Rating Plunges ................................................................................................................................................. 2116
JAPAN - What the Japanese been Buying ............................................................................................................................................. 2117
JAPAN - Japan May Matter More Than Tapering .................................................................................................................................. 2119
JAPAN - Japan Finances Worse than at Wars End ............................................................................................................................. 2122
JAPAN - BOJ: "The days of constructive ambiguity is over! ......................................................................................................... 2123
JAPAN - Abenomics Third Arrow Growth Strategy Underwhelms .......................................................................................................... 2124
JAPAN - 2nd ABE-nomics $200B Stimulus Package Approved ......................................................................................................... 2126
JAPAN - Worlds Biggest Pension Fund Sees Japan Fail on ABE-nomics' 2% Inflation Goal ....................................................... 2127
JAPAN - The Abe-nomics Failure ........................................................................................................................................................... 2130
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT & KEY NOTES .......................................................................................................................................... 2132
BRAZIL - Brazil Returns to Junk as Developing Nations Feel the Squeeze ............................................................................................. 2324
BRAZIL - China Bails Out Brazil In $50 Billion Regional Power Grab ...................................................................................................... 2327
BRAZIL - Brazils Inflation-v Interest Rates Consumer Confidence Index ............................................................................................. 2334
BRAZIL - Brazils Depressed Consumer Confidence Index ...................................................................................................................... 2334
BRAZIL - Brazils Collapsing Confidence in the Construction Sector ....................................................................................................... 2335
BRAZIL - Brazil's Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse ............................................................................................................... 2335
BRAZIL - Brazils Economy Just Imploded! ............................................................................................................................................... 2337
BRAZIL - Brazils economy slips into recession ........................................................................................................................................ 2340
BRAZIL - Inflation will remain high thanks to a "growth mismatch". .......................................................................................................... 2343
RUSSIA Russia Has Stopped Trying to Protect Ruble Has FX Reserves Depleted. ................................................................................ 2345
RUSSIA 2015 Russia Consensus GDP Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 2346
RUSSIA Foreign Exchange Reserves .................................................................................................................................................... 2346
RUSSIA Exchange and Interest Rate ..................................................................................................................................................... 2347
RUSSIA - Real GDP and Car Sales .......................................................................................................................................................... 2347
RUSSIA Inflation Rate ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2348
RUSSIA GDP Forecast versus USDRUB ............................................................................................................................................... 2348
RUSSIA WTI Crude versus Ruble .......................................................................................................................................................... 2349
RUSSIA Russian Stocks versus Ruble, Russian 10 Y Yield versus 5Y CDS ........................................................................................ 2349
RUSSIA Russian CDS Spreads ............................................................................................................................................................. 2350
RUSSIA Winners and Losers of Oil Price Plunge .................................................................................................................................. 2351
RUSSIA CDS Spreads Has Widened 250bp Since Mid-June ............................................................................................................... 2352
RUSSIA Russian 5Y CDS versus USDRUB versus Russian Stocks .................................................................................................... 2353
RUSSIA Crude Oil in Rubles .................................................................................................................................................................. 2354
RUSSIA Russian Reserves versus USDRUB ........................................................................................................................................ 2354
RUSSIA Falling Oil Price Weighs on Economy and the Ruble .............................................................................................................. 2355
RUSSIA Russian Ruble versus Reserves .............................................................................................................................................. 2356
RUSSIA Russian Breakeven Oil Prices versus Liquids Production ....................................................................................................... 2357
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-1 ............................................................................................................................ 2358
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-2 ............................................................................................................................ 2359
RUSSIA Russian Holdings of US Treasuries ......................................................................................................................................... 2360
RUSSIA Russian 9 Year Gold Buying Spree ......................................................................................................................................... 2361
RUSSIA Net YTD Gold Purchases by the Central Bank of Russia ........................................................................................................ 2361
RUSSIAN RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED THIS TRI-SEMESTER ............................................................................................................ 2363
RUSSIA Russia signs up to $100 bn BRICS fund to rival IMF ............................................................................................................... 2363
INDIA.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2364
NEW-INDIA India Imports- Exports Y-o-Y .............................................................................................................................................. 2364
INDIA CAPEX Bottom Out? .................................................................................................................................................................... 2365
INDIA Real GDP and Car Sales ............................................................................................................................................................. 2366
INDIA Inflation ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2367
INDIA - Inflation .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2368
INDIA - WPI ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2369
INDIA - Will be fine as long as it continues to reduce its deficit. ............................................................................................................... 2370
INDIA - Panic in India ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2371
INDIA - India Rupee Collapse Showing Signs of Exhaustion ............................................................................................................. 2373
INDIA - Watch Out For RE-Emergence of Food Price Inflation ........................................................................................................... 2374
SOUTH AFRICA ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 2376
US PUBLIC POLICY RUSSIA & IRAN ESCALATE SYRIAN CONFLICT ............................................................................ 2759
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2760
NEW-SYRIA RUSSIA & IRAN ENTER THE FRAY ................................................................................................................................ 2760
NEW-TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (TPP) ......................................................................................................................................... 2763
NEW-US GUN CONTROL (DEBATED AGAIN) ........................................................................................................................................ 2765
CHARLESTOWN SHOOTING ............................................................................................................................................................... 2765
BEGINNINGS OF SOCIAL UNREST & THE MILITARIZATION OF POLICE .......................................................................................... 2766
BALTIMORE RIOTS............................................................................................................................................................................... 2766
FERGUSON ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 2767
MILITARIZATION OF POLICE............................................................................................................................................................... 2767
POLLS ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2768
CORPORATE INVERSIONS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2769
INCARCERATION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2769
FLAWED TAX POLICY .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2769
MINIMUM WAGE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2769
SOCIAL CANCERS ................................................................................................................................................................................... 2770
CORRUPTION & MALFEASANTS ............................................................................................................................................................ 2770
INEQUALITY .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2770
CREEPING SOCIALISM ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2771
POLICIAL PARALYSIS .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2771
STATE OF THE UNION ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2771
NSA-SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX......................................................................................................................................... 2771
OBAMACARE ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 2773
GENERAL PUBLIC POLICY...................................................................................................................................................................... 2775
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2776
CHARTS The Cost of Healthcare By Country Spending Per Person ................................................................................................. 2776
CHARTS The Bankrupt US Healthcare System .................................................................................................................................. 2776
CHARTS Rise in Number of Homeless Children ................................................................................................................................... 2777
CHARTS One-Third of All Homeless Live in These 10 Cities ................................................................................................................ 2778
CHARTS Trends in American Public Schooling Since 1970 .................................................................................................................. 2779
CHARTS Size of US Army Since 1946................................................................................................................................................... 2779
CHARTS Lack of Trust in Government to Handle International & Domestic Problems ......................................................................... 2780
CHARTS Changing Presidential Stance ................................................................................................................................................ 2781
CHARTS Public Support to Withdraw from Union .................................................................................................................................. 2781
CHARTS - US Incarceration Rate Out of Control ...................................................................................................................................... 2782
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2783
POLICY - A 'Shadow" State of the Union .................................................................................................................................................. 2783
POLICY - Banks Remove the "Heart" of Dodd-Frank ............................................................................................................................... 2786
POLICY - Wall Street Moves to Put Taxpayers on the Hook for Derivatives Trades ............................................................................... 2790
POLICY - The Death Cross of American Business ................................................................................................................................... 2793
POLICY - The State of the Union I have a Dream! .............................................................................................................................. 2795
POLICY - A self-destructive path toward oblivion...................................................................................................................................... 2799
POLICY - Indictment of US Public, Fiscal & Monetary Policy ................................................................................................................... 2804
POLICY - The Crisis of Trust Continues to Worsen .................................................................................................................................. 2817
POLICY - The Stunning Truth about Inequality In America....................................................................................................................... 2818
POLICY - Pointing US towards Government Dependence ....................................................................................................................... 2819
POLICY - Yet another Game of Deception ................................................................................................................................................ 2823
POLICY - Obamacare A Flawed Public Policy Implementation ................................................................................................................ 2827
POLICY - Financial Repression and Manipulated Illusions ....................................................................................................................... 2830
POLICY - US Economic Decline is Obvious to Anyone Caring to Look ................................................................................................... 2834
POLICY - Policy Uncertainty and Confidence in Monetary Policy Direction is exposed........................................................................... 2837
POLICY - "What is good for GM is good for America" is no longer correct .............................................................................................. 2839
POLICY - Where is the Logic In US Public Policy ..................................................................................................................................... 2840
POLICY - What is the Real Driving Force Behind the New Immigration Law? ......................................................................................... 2843
POLICY - Crony Capitalism and How America Lost its Way! ................................................................................................................... 2846
STATE OF THE UNION - Direction & Priorities ............................................................................................................................................ 2850
STATE OF THE UNION Remarks by the President in State of the Union Address January 20th, 2015 ............................................ 2850
STATE OF THE UNION Free College Wasn't Just a Give Away It Was A Trial Balloon ................................................................... 2860
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 2863
MONETARY POLICY GLOBAL SLOW DOWN FORCES FED TO HOLD ON RATE INCREASE ......................................................... 2868
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2868
NEW-CHARTS: US Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weighs on Consumption ................................................................ 2868
NEW-CHARTS: Velocity of Money Shows Transmission System Broken ................................................................................................... 2868
NEW-CHARTS: Interest Rates Reflect Economic Growth & Inflation .......................................................................................................... 2869
NEW-CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet Change versus S&P 500 ..................................................................................................................... 2869
NEW-CHARTS: Fed Policy Initiatives versus S&P 500 Actions ................................................................................................................... 2870
NEW-CHARTS: Total US Credit Old versus New Series........................................................................................................................... 2870
NEW-CHARTS: Banks Treasuries Stash Boosts Case for Fed Delay ........................................................................................................ 2871
NEW-CHARTS: US Treasuries Purchased by Domestic Mutual Funds ....................................................................................................... 2871
NEW-CHARTS: Total Debt and Loans versus US GDP ............................................................................................................................... 2872
NEW-CHARTS: Credit Markets Instruments All Sectors- Liability Levels ................................................................................................. 2872
CHARTS: ZIRP Policy Results Compared to Previous Falling or Steady Rate Targets .............................................................................. 2873
CHARTS: Producer Price Index is Plummeting Complete Lack of Pricing Power .................................................................................... 2874
CHARTS: Liquidity Problems in Bond Market Are Only Getting Worse ....................................................................................................... 2874
CHARTS: Lending is Coming From the Fed Not the Banks ...................................................................................................................... 2875
FISCAL POLICY HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH THE DEBT CEILING CHARADE! ............................................................................ 2953
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2955
NEW-PEURTO RICO .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2955
NEW-ILLINOIS & CHICAGO ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2955
NEW-CHARTS Illinois the Biggest User of Food Stamps in Mid-West .................................................................................................. 3151
NEW-CHARTS Illinois has Regained Few Manufacturing Jobs Since the Great Recession ................................................................ 3151
NEW-CHARTS Food Stamps Outpace Manufacturing Jobs 25-1 in Illinois .......................................................................................... 3151
NEW-CHARTS Debt by Generation ....................................................................................................................................................... 3152
CHARTS US Personal Savings Rate as a % of Disposable Income ..................................................................................................... 3153
CHARTS US Corporate Profits versus US Median Household Income ................................................................................................. 3154
CHARTS Death of the American Middle Class ...................................................................................................................................... 3154
CHARTS Income Gap being Filled With Credit ...................................................................................................................................... 3155
CHARTS Peak Spending Years ............................................................................................................................................................. 3156
CHARTS Real Per Capita Sum of Corporate Profits After Tax, Disposable Personal Income and Government Receipts .............. 3157
CHARTS Real Median Household Income in the United States ............................................................................................................ 3158
CHARTS Food Stamps Number of Participants .................................................................................................................................. 3159
CHARTS Food Stamps Number of Participants per Employed .......................................................................................................... 3159
CHARTS Food Stamps Cost Per Participant per Month ..................................................................................................................... 3160
CHARTS Food Stamps Annual Program Cost .................................................................................................................................... 3160
CHARTS Education, Medical, Food, Housing Costs versus CPI ........................................................................................................... 3161
CHARTS Rising Sub-Prime .................................................................................................................................................................... 3161
CHARTS Early Delinquencies on US Car Loans Has Been Rising ....................................................................................................... 3163
CHARTS Student Loan Default Rates By Graduating Year ................................................................................................................... 3164
CHARTS Student Loan Graduating Debt Levels Class 2009 ............................................................................................................. 3164
CHARTS Student Loan Borrowing Trends ............................................................................................................................................. 3165
CHARTS Increasing Government Entitlement Dependency .................................................................................................................. 3165
CHARTS Increasing Government Entitlement Dependency .................................................................................................................. 3166
CHARTS US Household Balance Sheet ................................................................................................................................................ 3166
CHARTS Middle Class Not Sharing In Per Capita GDP ........................................................................................................................ 3167
CHARTS Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................. 3168
CHARTS Inflation Adjusted Net Worth for Typical Family Falls 36% in 10 Years ................................................................................. 3169
CHARTS Even Wal-Mart Discounting Cant Keep Up With Government Inflation ................................................................................ 3169
CHARTS Food Stamps Now Part of the American Way of Life ............................................................................................................. 3170
CHARTS Inflation Adjusted Hourly Earnings Remain Weak .................................................................................................................. 3171
CHARTS the Countrys Central Economic Challenge according to EPI ................................................................................................ 3172
CHARTS The New Sub-Prime Boom Auto Loans ............................................................................................................................... 3172
CHARTS Real Median Income Falls as Real Rates Turn Negative....................................................................................................... 3173
CHARTS Disposable Personal Income Per Capita ................................................................................................................................ 3173
CHARTS Real Disposable Income is Now Contracting ......................................................................................................................... 3174
CHARTS This is a Structural .................................................................................................................................................................. 3174
CHARTS Growing Temp Wages Impacting Real Disposable Income in America .............................................................................. 3175
CHARTS Real Disposable Income per Capita ....................................................................................................................................... 3176
CHARTS - Household Incomes a Sign of a Collapsing Middle Class ....................................................................................................... 3176
CHARTS - Food Stamps Now 14% of US Grocery Store Sales ............................................................................................................... 3177
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 3178
NEW-RESEARCH Typical male worker earned less in 2014 than in 1973. .......................................................................................... 3178
NEW-RESEARCH Why This Feels Like A Depression For Most People .............................................................................................. 3180
NEW-RESEARCH The Story of America's Debt In 6 Easy Graphics .................................................................................................... 3184
RESEARCH Fed's Household Credit Report Confirms It Is A Student And Car Loan "Recovery" ....................................................... 3189
RESEARCH How Can a 70% Consumption Have a Recovery When Real DI/Capital Falls ................................................................. 3192
RESEARCH - The Facts are clear. The US Standard of Living is Falling ................................................................................................ 3193
RESEARCH - The Facts are clear. The US Standard of Living is falling .................................................................................................. 3194
RESEARCH - Standards of Living and Artificial Expectations .................................................................................................................. 3197
RESEARCH - A Lack of Demand in US Economy .................................................................................................................................... 3199
RESEARCH - Full Time Jobs or Food Stamps & Disability? .................................................................................................................... 3200
REFERENCE - Prior Posts ............................................................................................................................................................................ 3202
STANDARD OF LIVING - Salary Compression ........................................................................................................................................ 3202
DISPOSABLE INCOME - 66M (20%) Below $28.8/Year Subsistence Level ........................................................................................... 3203
FOOD STAMPS - 46,405,204 Individuals, 22,257,647 Households below Poverty Line ......................................................................... 3204
DISPOSABLE INCOME - Bad Even in Nominal Terms ............................................................................................................................ 3206
INFLATION - It's There but the Government Doesn't Account for it. ........................................................................................................ 3206
US RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE ...................................................................................................................................................................... 3208
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3208
LATEST ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3208
CHARTS & TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 3212
NEW-POLICY US Cities with Highest Median Prices of Single-Family Homes..................................................................................... 3212
NEW-POLICY NAHB Sentiment Much Higher than Permits and Starts? .............................................................................................. 3212
NEW-POLICY Flattenening NAHB Sentiment ........................................................................................................................................ 3213
POLICY New Homes Sales versus Ave Wage Grow Y-0-Y versus MBA 30Y rate versus Real Median Inc ........................................ 3214
POLICY Mortgage Purchase Application Index versus Fed Balance Sheet .......................................................................................... 3215
POLICY Total News Home Sales v Median New Home Sale Price ...................................................................................................... 3216
POLICY San Francisco Y/Y Price Increase Indicator ............................................................................................................................. 3216
POLICY Meaningful Housing Recovery On Hold Until Spring ............................................................................................................... 3218
POLICY Housing Starts .......................................................................................................................................................................... 3218
POLICY Existing & New Home Sales ..................................................................................................................................................... 3219
POLICY Home Ownership Rate versus Rental Rate ............................................................................................................................. 3219
POLICY Mortgages Past Due and Foreclosure Starts ........................................................................................................................ 3220
POLICY Mortgage Spreads .................................................................................................................................................................... 3220
POLICY Lumber Sales ............................................................................................................................................................................ 3221
CHARTS Total Real Estate Sales Activity vs. Mortgage Rates ............................................................................................................. 3223
Plan
Release
Date
III.
Monday following
4th Saturday
of the Month
IV.
II.
Monday following
2tnd Saturday of the
Month
Tuesday following
3rd Saturday
of the Month
Service
Coverage
Tipping Points
Tipping Points
Abstraction
Global Macro
Abstraction
US Economy
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Market Analytics
Fundamental Analysis
Market Analytics
Risk Analysis
Synthesis
Commentary
Synthesis
Commentary
Thesis
Conclusions
Focus