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Pf Pa IN
Donde :
Pf: Poblacin futura.
Pa: Poblacin actual
Pa Pi
n
AOS
POBLACION
INCREMENTO
AOS/CENSOS
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
13300
1,9900
2,5670
3,4000
41600
50720
57400
TOTAL
0
6600
5770
8330
7600
9120
6680
44100
0
10
10
10
10
10
10
60
Pa= 57400
N=15
Pi=13300
N=60
CALCULO
I=(57400-13300)/60
I=735 Hab/ao
Pf(2015)=57400+735(5)
Pf(2015)=61075 hab
Pf(2030)=61075 +735(15)
Pf(2030)=72100 hab
2) Mtodo geomtrico.
a) Por porcentajes.
Consiste en registrar los porcentajes de aumento en los aos anteriores
para determinar el porcentaje anual de aumento para los aos futuros. La
expresin de clculo es:
Pa * % Pr* N
Pf Pa
100
Donde:
%Pr: Porciento anual promedio. El cual se estima por:
%
% Pr
n
Siendo:
n: Nmero de aos entre el primer censo y el ltimo.
%: suma del porcentaje de incremento en cada ao.
Pa y n: Idntico al mtodo anterior.
POBLACION
INCREMENTO
1950
13300
AOS/CENSOS
PORCENTAJES
AOS/CENSOS
49.62
28.99
32.45
22.35
10
10
10
10
10
10
1960
1970
1980
1990
19900
25670
34000
41600
6600
5770
8330
7600
0
10
10
10
10
2000
2010
50720
57400
9120
6680
10
10
21.92
13.17
44100
60
168.5
Total
60
Frmulas:
AOS
POBLACION
Log pob
1950
13300
4.1238
AOS/CENSOS
1960
1970
1980
1990
19900
25670
34000
41600
4.2988
4.4094
4.5314
4.6619
0
10
10
10
10
2000
2010
50720
57400
4.7051
4.7589
10
10
Total
Log pf log pa
Log(1+r)
0.175
0.1106
0.122
0.1305
0.0175
0.01106
0.0122
0.01305
0.0432
0.0538
0.00432
0.00538
60
Log(1+r)=(0.175)/10=0.0175
0.06351
4) Mtodo de Malthus
Pf Pa(1 x )
Frmulas:
Donde:
Pf= Poblacin futura
Pa=Poblacin actual
=La suma de porcientos entre el nmero de aos en decenas
X =Nmero de perodos decenales a partir del ao en que se realizo
el ltimo censo.
AOS
POBLACION
INCREMENTO
1950
13300
AOS/CENSOS
PORCENTAJES
AOS/CENSOS
0.4962
0.2899
0.3245
0.2235
10
10
10
10
10
10
1960
1970
1980
1990
19900
25670
34000
41600
6600
5770
8330
7600
0
10
10
10
10
2000
2010
50720
57400
9120
6680
10
10
0.2192
0.1317
44100
60
1.685
Total
60
20 aos = 2 dcadas
13300 / 100 = 6600/ X Por lo tanto X= (6600 / 13300) 100 = 0.4962
= 1.685 / 2 = 0.8425
5) Mtodo lineal
Censos
poblacio
n
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
13300
19900
25670
34000
41600
50720
57400
25935000
39004000
50569900
67320000
82784000
101440000
115374000
3802500
3841600
3880900
3920400
3960100
4000000
4040100
176890000
396010000
658948900
1156000000
1730560000
2572518400
3294760000
13860
242590
482426900
27445600
9985687300
Formulas:
p=a+b
t*P
p=-1449425+(749.5357)(2030) =72132.471
a
R=0.99825
r
( 7 )( 482426900
)( 13860)(242590)
( 7 ) ( 482,26900 )(13860)( 242590)
( 7 ) ( 27445600
)( 13860 )2
( ( 7 )( 27445600 ) ( 13860 )2) [ (7)(9985687300)(242590) ]
no lineal :
EXPONENCIAL:
Censo
s
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
poblacio
n
13300
19900
25670
34000
41600
50720
57400
13860
242590
ln p
t*ln p
(ln p)
3802500
3841600
3880900
3920400
3960100
4000000
4040100
9.495519314
9.898475011
10.15307827
10.4341158
10.63585545
10.83407559
10.95779958
18516.26266
19401.01102
20001.5642
20659.54929
21165.35234
21668.15118
22025.17716
90.16488705
97.97980754
103.0849984
108.8707726
113.1214211
117.3771939
120.0733717
27445600
72.40891902
143437.0679
750.6724523
Fomulas:
P=ae
P=6.176934797x^-17
P=15091.69907
P(1960)=19199.58
P(1970)=24425.61298
P(1980)=31074.14148
P(1990)=39532.3658
P(2000)=50292.8762
P(2010)=63982.34313
e^(0.02407437157)(1950)
InP b
e
0.02407437157(13860)
N
a
72.40891902
a= 6.176934797 x 10^-17
e
b
b
( 7 )( 143437.0679 )(13869)(72.40891902)
( 7 ) ( 27445600 )(13860)
b =0.02407437157
N ( LnP ) ( LnP )
2
N ( )
N (InP ) InP
logartmico:
Censo
s
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
poblacin
13300
19900
25670
34000
41600
50720
57400
13860
242590
ln t
ln t * p
7.575584652
7.580699752
7.585788822
7.590852124
7.595889918
7.60090246
7.605890001
176890000
396010000
658948900
1156000000
1730560000
2572518400
3294760000
100755.2759
150855.9251
194727.1991
258088.9722
315989.0206
385517.7727
436578.0861
57.38948281
57.46700873
57.54419205
57.62103596
57.69754364
57.7737182
57.84956271
53.13560773
9985687300
1842512.252
403.3425441
Formulas:
N
nIP
In P
2
N ( In ) ( In)
b=1483777.44
7 ( 1842512.252 )(53.13560773)( 242590)
( 7 )( 403.3425 )( 53.135)
P b In
N
( 242590 )(1484777.44)(53.135)
aa
=-11228403.73
7
N ( In )2
[( In) ][N P2( P ) ]
( 7 ) )( 1842512.252
N ( In
P In P ) (53.135)(242590)
r
[( 7 )( 403.342 )(53.135) ][7 ( 9985687300 )(242590) ]
r=0.997769
(ln t)
P=a+b(Ln)
P(1950)=12077.885
P(1960)=19667.55
P(1970)=27218.60
P(1980)=34731.4166
P(1990)=42206.381
P(2000)=49643.878
P(2010)=57044.279
potencial:
Censo
s
Poblaci
n
1950
13300
1960
19900
1970
25670
ln t
ln p
(ln t) (ln p)
(ln p)^2
(ln t)^2
7.575584652
7.580699752
7.585788822
9.495519314
9.898475011
10.15307827
71.93411038
75.03736706
77.01910768
90.16488705
97.97980754
103.0849984
57.38948281
57.46700873
57.54419205
57400
7.590852124
7.595889918
7.60090246
7.605890001
10.4341158
10.63585545
10.83407559
10.95779958
79.20383011
80.78878715
82.34875179
83.34381828
108.8707726
113.1214211
117.3771939
120.0733717
57.62103596
57.69754364
57.7737182
57.84956271
242590
53.13560773
72.40891902
549.6757724
750.6724523
403.3425441
1980
34000
1990
41600
2000
50720
2010
13860
P=a
e[
LnP b
N
In
]
N ( In )( LnP ) In InP
2
N ( In ) ( In)
r
N ( In )2( In)
N ( In )( InP ) In InP
2
[ N ( InP ) ( InP ) ]