National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Near Earth Object Program

Comprehensive report on Asteroid 2010 XB73
Vinfinity= 5.98km/s
Vimpact= 12.65km/s at exosphere
Diameter= .110km (110m)
Mass= 1.7e+9.0kg
Energy= 3.2e+1.0MT TNT Equivalent
It has been determine that the crust impact velocity will not likely be greatly affected by air
resistance. The speed at which the asteroid is moving, combined with the size and
gravitational pull of the Earth, make it so that the air resistance (F D) is significantly smaller
than the acceleration due to gravity (Ge) acting upon it. The impact velocity at ground level,
excluding air resistance, has been calculated using the following equation:

V = 2 ( Ge ) ( D )
V = 2 ( 9.81 m/s 2) ( 10000 mi )
V = 2 ( .00981 km/s2 ) ( 16093.44 km )
V = 17.77km/s
In the above equation, D is the distance from the upper edge of the Earths exosphere to
the crust. That velocity is the velocity the asteroid would have if it were to start accelerating
from a stand still at the exosphere, and fall to the crust in the absence of a fluid, in this case
the atmosphere. The air resistance was calculated using the following equation:

C A v
FD= D
2

FD=

( 1.5 ) ( 1.225 ) ( 9503.32 ) ( 15.212 )

2

FD= 2,019,905.88N (.00201990588GN)

While that is a large amount of force acting on the asteroid as it passes through the
atmosphere, the gravitational force from the Earth so greatly outweighs that of the drag
force as to make it negligible. The gravitational force was calculated using the following
equation:

F g=M GE

F g=( 1700000000 kg ) ( 9.81 m/s 2 )

Fg= 16,677,000,000N (16.677GN)
Based on that information it was determined that air resistance will not play a major role in
the impact of this asteroid. After combining the quantities for Vimpact and Vcrust it was
determined that the total velocity (Vsurface) will likely be 30.42km/s. Using the determined
velocity, as well as crater collapse factor, gravity, energy, and density, I have calculated the
likely crater diameter:
1

D=0.07 Cf ( Ge ) 6 W
1

pa
pt

D=( 0.07 )( 1.3 ) ( 9.81 ) 6 3200

1
3.4

7.3
5.513

1
3.4

D=9.35261km
Based on my calculations, the crater will be just over 9km in diameter. As it is predicted to
impact the ocean, it poses a larger risk, as it will effect a greater area of the United States
East Coast with a large tsunami type wave, as well as risk to Atlantic Coastal Europe, Africa,
and South America.
That information is based upon a 90o angle of entry. We had to do further calculations based
on the likelihood that it will follow a 45o angle of entry.

2010 XB73
1.1792419789848
e+10N
1.6677 e+10N
45o

V T = (2 W ) / ( C D A )
V T =( 216677000000 ) / ( 1.51.22512210 )
V T =13.869 km/s

Based on that information, the crater size will remain the same. It is also anticipated that a
potential impact may result in a short period of winter, no more than a month based upon
NASAs current calculations, from dust particulates expelled into the air. This is assuming
that the asteroid impacts the crust. It is a small enough object that it may explode in the
atmosphere, much like the Chelyabinsk Bolide, which would simply release large amounts of
energy.

We are fairly certain of the measurements, as well as trajectory. The Line of Variation (LOV)
is rather small. This indicates that the computers have a pretty good handle on the
trajectory. The LOV is -1.26497, indicating the uncertainty of an impact.
Overall, impact is unlikely. The asteroid will likely pass safely past the Earth and continue on
its way. We should, however, keep an eye on it. If something changes, such as a small
meteor striking it, its course may be altered, causing it to increase impact chance. For this
reason it is a good idea to be aware of the situation.
"2010 XB73 Impact Risk." 2010 XB73 Impact Risk. National Aeronautics and Space
Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratories, 15 Dec. 2015. Web. 08 Feb. 2016.
<http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2010xb73.html>.