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ForecastofOffshoreWindFoundation
DemandinNorthWestEuropeforthe
Period20132023
April2013Sample
OrbisEnergyCentre
WildeStreet
Lowestoft,Suffolk
NR321XH
UnitedKingdom
www.4Coffshore.com
TableofContents
1
Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................4
OffshoreWindin2013.........................................................................................................................................4
BelgiumMarketReview.......................................................................................................................................6
3.1
OffshoreWindTargetSummary.................................................................................................................6
3.2
Planning.......................................................................................................................................................6
3.3
Incentives....................................................................................................................................................6
3.4
MarketDevelopmentToDate.....................................................................................................................7
3.5
FutureMarketDevelopment......................................................................................................................7
DenmarkMarketReview.....................................................................................................................................9
4.1
OffshoreWindTargetSummary.................................................................................................................9
4.2
Planning.......................................................................................................................................................9
4.3
Incentives..................................................................................................................................................10
4.4
MarketDevelopmenttoDate....................................................................................................................10
4.5
FutureMarketDevelopment....................................................................................................................11
GermanyMarketReview...................................................................................................................................12
5.1
OffshoreWindTargetSummary...............................................................................................................12
5.2
Planning.....................................................................................................................................................12
5.3
Incentives..................................................................................................................................................14
5.4
MarketDevelopmenttoDate...................................................................................................................14
5.5
FutureMarketDevelopment....................................................................................................................15
NetherlandsMarketReview..............................................................................................................................16
6.1
OffshoreWindTargetSummary...............................................................................................................16
6.2
Planning.....................................................................................................................................................17
6.3
Incentives..................................................................................................................................................17
6.4
MarketDevelopmentToDate....................................................................................................................18
6.5
FutureMarketDevelopment.....................................................................................................................19
FranceMarketReview........................................................................................................................................20
7.1
OffshoreWindTargetSummary................................................................................................................20
7.2
Planning......................................................................................................................................................20
7.3
Incentives...................................................................................................................................................21
7.4
MarketDevelopmentToDate....................................................................................................................21
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7.5
8
FutureMarketDevelopment.....................................................................................................................22
UnitedKingdomMarketReview.........................................................................................................................23
8.1
OffshoreWindTargetSummary................................................................................................................23
8.2
Incentives...................................................................................................................................................23
8.3
Planning......................................................................................................................................................26
8.4
MarketDevelopmentToDate...................................................................................................................27
8.5
FutureMarketDevelopment.....................................................................................................................28
Summaryofcountrystrengthsandweaknesses................................................................................................30
10
EstimatingFoundationTypes.........................................................................................................................31
10.1
Turbines.....................................................................................................................................................32
10.2
WaterDepths.............................................................................................................................................32
10.3
SeabedSoilConditions...............................................................................................................................32
10.4
DynamicWindandWaveLoading.............................................................................................................33
10.5
WaterCurrentEnergy................................................................................................................................34
10.6
Installationmethods..................................................................................................................................35
10.7
HistoricalPreferences................................................................................................................................37
11
ModellingAssumptions..................................................................................................................................38
11.1
EstimatingTurbineCapacity.......................................................................................................................38
11.2
InstallationModel......................................................................................................................................38
11.3
DelayModel...............................................................................................................................................39
12
Results............................................................................................................................................................41
12.1
MonopilesinDeveloperPipelines..............................................................................................................41
12.2
JacketsinDeveloperPipelines...................................................................................................................42
12.3
GravityBasesinDeveloperPipelines.........................................................................................................42
12.4
OtherFoundationsinDeveloperPipelines................................................................................................44
12.5
EuropeanMainMarketOverview..............................................................................................................44
12.6
BelgiumFoundationForecast....................................................................................................................47
12.7
DenmarkFoundationForecast...................................................................................................................48
12.8
FranceFoundationForecast.......................................................................................................................49
12.9
GermanyFoundationForecast...................................................................................................................50
12.10
NetherlandsFoundationForecast.........................................................................................................51
12.11
UnitedKingdomFoundationForecast...................................................................................................52
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1 Introduction
RenewableenergypolicyinEuropeanmemberstateshasemergedprimarilyfromDirective2009/28/EC
oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncilof23April2009onthepromotionoftheuseofenergy
fromrenewablesources.Thislegislationwasadoptedfromtherecognitionoftheneedtodecarbonise
energysupplyalongsideconcernsoverscarcityandsecurityofenergyresources.
InresponsetothisdirectivecountriessubmittedNationalRenewableEnergyActionPlans(NREAP)to
theEuropeanCommission(EC)detailingthetechnologymixtheyexpectedtouse,thetrajectorythey
willfollowandthemeasuresandreformstheywillundertaketoovercomethebarrierstodeveloping
renewableenergy.
Offshorewindisasingularcomponentwithintheenergymixbutitsscalablerolewithintheenergy
marketmakesitanessentialelementforthemajorityNREAPs.InsomecasestheNREAPshavebeen
surpassedbynationalpolicy(e.g.UK)sincetheirsubmissionin2010,orthereisacrediblereasonto
believethatthe(nonbinding)technologymixproportionswillchange.Also,sincetheDirectivecame
intoforce,theeconomicandpoliticallandscapeofEuropehaschangedconsiderablywithmany
countriesexperiencingprolongedperiodsofrecessionandausteritywhichhasinfluencedthelikelyscale
ofoffshoredevelopment.
ThisreportprovidesaforecastoffoundationdemandforthemainoffshorewindmarketsofEurope
(Belgium,Denmark,France,Germany,Netherlands,andUnitedKingdom)fortheperiodto2023usinga
combinationofprojectbasedanalysisandmarketcontextualanalysis.Thissimultaneoustopdownand
bottomupapproachallowsconsiderationofbothdesignparameterssuchasturbinemodel,water
depthetcinadditiontopoliticalfactorssuchasregulatorychanges.Theprocessofforecastingcanbe
summarizedasfollows:
1. Themarketcontextineachcountryisreviewedandused,alongwiththestatusoftheproject
pipelinetoproposeasetofcrediblelow,mediumandhighmarketdevelopmentscenarios
againstwhichforecastsoffoundationdemandcanbemade.
2. Foreachprojectinvolvedinascenariothenumberandtypeoffoundationsisestimated.The
numberoffoundationsisestimatedfromprojectcapacitiesandlikelyturbinesizeswhere
unknown,withthetypeoffoundationderivedfromadeskstudy.
3. Wherenecessaryprojectpipelinesaredelayedaccordingtotheprojectscertaintystatusin
ordertoproduceaprojectpipelinethatfitsthescenario.Inextremecasestheprojectpipelineis
normalisedfurthertofitthescenariowhilstmaintainingtheratiooffoundationtypes.
4. Theinstallationoffoundationstobeinstalledovertimeismodelledandpresentedinthe
results.
2 OffshoreWindin2013
ThetotalinstalledcapacityofoffshorewindfarmsinEurope,includingprojectsonlypartiallyinstalled
currentlyamountsto5637.65MW.TheUnitedKingdomismarketleaderholding63%(3557.50MW),
followedbyDenmark(18%,1004.08MW)andBelgium(7%,379.50MW).TheUnitedKingdomcurrently
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generatesoverthreetimesmoreoffshorewindenergythananyothercountry(Figure1Installed
Capacity,EuropeMarch2013).
Figure1InstalledCapacity,EuropeMarch2013
ThetotalcapacityunderconstructioninEurope(Figure2)currentlyamountsto2990.70MW.Breakingdownthe
underconstructioncapacitypercountryshowsGermanyascurrentlyconstructingthemostholding63%(1879.20
MW)ofthetotalcapacity,followedbytheUnitedKingdom(22%,671.80MW)andDenmark(9%,270MW).
Figure2.CapacityUnderConstruction,EuropeMarch2013 (NotethattheSpanishprojectisanonshoretestturbine)
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