Fundamentals, Polls, and the Primary - The New York Times

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Fundamentals, Polls, and the Primary

March 10, 2016 3:24 pm

The huge polling miss in Michigan was a cautionary tale: for all its
excellence, FiveThirtyEight is only as good as the polls, which at least this time
were way, way off. Its too soon to dismiss them, but not too soon to explore other
approaches, which is what Alan Abramowitz has just done. Using data for the
Dem contests so far, he estimates a simple relationship based on just two factors
nonwhite share of the population, and north versus south that accounts for
the results quite well and Michigan is not an outlier.
If this model is right and bear in mind that until Michigan polls were doing
pretty well, so it may be a special case next Tuesday wont go as well for Clinton
as the polls predict, with Sanders quite possibly winning three states. Its
important to remember, however, that Democratic delegates are allocated more
or less proportionately, so that we would still be looking at a substantial Clinton
gain in delegates. My back of the envelope says that she would widen her lead by
80-100 if Alans model calls it right.
What about later? There arent many more Southern states. On the other
hand, after Tuesday almost half the pledged delegates will have been chosen, and
to close the gap Sanders would have to win big in what remains. The back of my
envelope says that he would need to win the rest of the primaries by something
like a 14-16 point margin, which seems unlikely. So even with this model, Clinton
remains a strong favorite.
But this could go on for a long, long time. And people who say that its good
for the Democratic party might want to look at the Sanders Twitter feed, which is,
if you ask me, getting pretty ugly in a way the Clinton feed hasnt.
Well know a lot more after next Tuesday.

11/03/2016 00:46

Fundamentals, Polls, and the Primary - The New York Times

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