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Unit #1
Objectives
S8-1 Carry out investigations of phenomena, using the statistical enquiry cycle:
determining estimates and confidence intervals for differences, recognising the relevance of the central limit theorem;
use methods such as resampling to assess the strength of the evidence
References:
Homework: for each hour in class, about an hour more is needed to effectively practice and process the work from that lesson, in readiness for
the next one. If you are having difficulty with something related to a lesson DO SOMETHING about it straight away.
Detail
Lesson
1 - 14
plus
homework
time
from
Lesson 7
onwards,
you will be
able to
use the
computers
to process
data sets
at school
Practise parts of the Statistics Investigation Cycle for: Making a Formal Statistical Inference
Use the booklet of data sets (Rugby, Kiwi, cars, Marathon and Babies), their statistics and their graphs to complete
the worksheets about:
Defining variables
Comparing Key Features: Middle 50%, Shift, Spread, Shape, Special Features, Centre (difference in medians)
Finding and interpreting Confidence Intervals for differences (in medians or means)
You are strongly advised to do this work and check it, to make sure you have understood the requirements of the
standard.
How to use iNZight and interpret its displays for this topic, appears throughout the workbook.
Workbook References
See pages 3 63 in
the workbook:
Writing Questions
p5-6
Centre / spread
p68
Sample variation p 9 20
Confidence Intervals p
21 - 52
Bootstrapping
P53 - 60
Ex: #61 - 68
Practice task
Pages 64 - 6
INFERENCE continued
Background - the Central limit Theorem
If all possible sufficiently large samples of the same size n are taken
from a Normal population with mean , and standard deviation
then sample means, x are normally distributed,
with mean
Read
pages 17-18
Do Questions
1-14
ksd
+ ksd
Sample proportions and the difference in sample means also follow this pattern.
The formula sheet gives a table of means and standard deviations for different sampling distributions .
Note that the standard deviation of a sampling distribution is often called the standard error.
Confidence Intervals
Because we know sample means (for example) are normally distributed, we can use ONE sample mean to generate
an interval with a known probability of containing the actual population mean.
This interval is called a confidence interval. The general formula for any confidence interval is:
(one sample statistic) k standard errors
where k is the z-score needed to give the desired centrally placed area under the normal curve.
e.g. K = 1.96 gives a 95% CI, and k = 2.58 gives a 99% CI, and k = 1.65 gives a 90% CI
1-3
plus
homework
time
A 95% Confidence Interval for a population mean, has a 95% probability of containing that mean.
It is found by:
(one sample mean) 1.96 standard errors
Notation and terminology different notation is used to distinguish between sample and population values
Sample statistics sample standard deviation s , sample variance s2, sample mean x , sample proportion p
s
X
X
n
n
are Normally distributed with mean
and standard deviation
2. Proportions p from samples of size n from a population with proportion
1 and 2
mean
X X 1 2
1
X X
1
(1 )
1 and 2
12 22
n1 n 2
s12 s 22
n1 n2
p (1 p )
n