Developmental Psychology

2015, Vol. 51, No. 11, 1664 1671

2015 American Psychological Association

0012-1649/15/$12.00 http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/dev0000052

BRIEF REPORT

Up, Not Down: The Age Curve in Happiness From Early Adulthood to
Midlife in Two Longitudinal Studies
Nancy L. Galambos, Shichen Fang,
Harvey J. Krahn, and Matthew D. Johnson

Margie E. Lachman
Brandeis University

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University of Alberta

Happiness is an important indicator of well-being, and little is known about how it changes in the early
adult years. We examined trajectories of happiness from early adulthood to midlife in 2 Canadian
longitudinal samples: high school seniors followed from ages 18 43 and university seniors followed
from ages 2337. Happiness increased into the 30s in both samples, with a slight downturn by age 43 in
the high school sample. The rise in happiness after high school and university remained after controlling
for important baseline covariates (gender, parents education, grades, self-esteem), time-varying covariates known to be associated with happiness (marital status, unemployment, self-rated physical health),
and number of waves of participation. The upward trend in happiness runs counter to some previous
cross-sectional research claiming a high point in happiness in the late teens, decreasing into midlife. As
cross-sectional designs do not assess within-person change, longitudinal studies are necessary for
drawing accurate conclusions about patterns of change in happiness across the life span.
Keywords: happiness, midlife, growth curve modeling, longitudinal, early adulthood

uation), happiness (positive hedonic affect), and low negative

affect (Diener, Suh, Lucas, & Smith, 1999). Age curves tend to
differ depending on the measured construct, with the U-curve
mainly found for global life satisfaction, a linear decreasing trend
for negative affect, and upward or U-shaped trends for positive
affect (Lachman, Teshale, & Agrigoroaei, 2015; Mroczek & Kolarz, 1998; Stone, Schwartz, Broderick, & Deaton, 2010). Furthermore, life satisfaction and happiness labels have been used interchangeably to describe results based on different underlying
constructs and measures, ultimately clouding interpretations of
associations with age. The current article focuses on happiness, or
the affective component of well-being.
A second source of confusion stems from heavy reliance on
cross-sectional studies, which do not observe intraindividual
change and confound age and cohort differences (Easterlin, 2006).
Even so, such data are used to draw conclusions about age-related
change in happiness over the life course (e.g., Stone et al., 2010).
Longitudinal studies extending from early adulthood into midlife
are particularly rare. Also, compared to life satisfaction, little is
known about the association between age and positive affect
(Stone et al., 2010). To address these gaps, the current study tracks
longitudinal trajectories of happiness from early adulthood to
midlife in two samples, documenting age happiness associations
for up to 25 years.

Happiness, an indicator of subjective well-being, contributes to

thriving in work, relationships, and health, as well as longevity
(Hoppmann, Gerstorf, Willis, & Schaie, 2011; Lyubomirsky,
King, & Diener, 2005). Understanding its level and age-related
changes is useful for informing government policies directed at
improving quality of life (Diener, Kesebir, & Lucas, 2008; Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD],
2013; Yap, Anusic, & Lucas, 2014). The shape of the association
between age and subjective well-being, however, is strongly debated. U-shape, inverted U-shape, and linear functions have been
proposed, with both low (U) and high (inverted U) points claimed
for midlife (late 30s50s; Ulloa, Mller, & Sousa-Poza, 2013).
One source of contradictory findings is the multidimensionality of
subjective well-being, comprising life satisfaction (cognitive eval-

This article was published Online First September 7, 2015.

Nancy L. Galambos and Shichen Fang, Department of Psychology,
University of Alberta; Harvey J. Krahn, Department of Sociology, University of Alberta; Matthew D. Johnson, Department of Human Ecology,
University of Alberta; Margie E. Lachman, Department of Psychology,
Brandeis University.
This research was funded by grants from the Social Sciences and
Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC), Alberta Advanced
Education, and the University of Alberta. Data were collected by the
Population Research Laboratory, University of Alberta.
Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Nancy L.
Galambos, Department of Psychology, P217 Biological Sciences Building,
University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2E9, Canada. E-mail:
galambos@ualberta.ca

Measuring Happiness
The social science literature on the meaning and measurement
of happiness is voluminous, riddled with differing opinions, and
extends back at least to the 1930s. Our approach to conceptualizing
1664

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AGE CURVE IN HAPPINESS

and operationalizing happiness is informed by Diener et al. (1999),

who argued that happiness is an accumulation of positive emotion.
In their view, positive or pleasant affect is distinct theoretically and
empirically from life satisfaction, but both happiness and life
satisfaction belong to the larger construct of subjective well-being.
Other scholars have characterized happiness as a balance of positive to negative affect (Ryff, 1989), positive affect experienced on
a given day (Stone et al., 2010), and happiness with life as a whole
(Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs, 2013). In attempting to sort out the
difference between happiness and life satisfaction measures, Lyubomirsky et al. (2005) concluded that life satisfaction is a
defensible proxy for chronic happiness, in cases in which no
studies exist using more direct measures of happiness (p. 822).
Furthermore, in their review of life satisfaction measures, Diener,
Inglehart, and Tay (2013) stated that global life satisfaction scales
ask respondents to evaluate their lives as a whole on a scale
ranging from very satisfying to very dissatisfying (p. 497).
Given conflicting understandings and labels in the literature, we
use the term happiness to refer to measures in studies that use the
word happy in the response scale, regardless of how the authors
label the measure (e.g., happiness, positive affect, life satisfaction,
well-being). We reserve the term satisfaction for measures in
which respondents rate the degree to which they are satisfied with
their lives (an evaluation of the quality of their lives rather than an
emotion). In our research, we ask, Thinking about your life in
general, how happy are you with your life? with options ranging
from not very happy at all to very happy. We label this measure as
happiness because it directly keys in on happy emotion in the stem
question and in the response scale and does not assess respondents
satisfaction.

Age Differences and Age-Related Change in Happiness

A large body of research has documented a positivity effect;
attention to and memory of pleasant events and positive emotions
increase from the 50s into later life, unless poor health intervenes
(Carstensen & Mikels, 2005; Mroczek & Spiro, 2005; Reed, Chan,
& Mikels, 2014; Stone et al., 2010). This work, conducted within
the context of socioemotional selectivity theory (Carstensen,
1995), suggests as adults age, they are better able to regulate their
emotions and thus experience increased happiness in later life. An
upswing in positive affect after midlife is not in dispute, but there
is some debate about whether and when happiness declines in old
age. Conclusions about happiness and positive affect in later life,
however, are frequently based on cross-sectional studies comparing younger (20s) and older (60s70s) participants (Reed et al.,
2014). To determine whether midlife is the nadir or apex in
positive affect, we must ask whether happiness is lower or higher
in midlife relative to early adulthood (Blanchflower & Oswald,
2008). Happiness growth curves in the same participants spanning
the first half of adulthood hold the answer.
U-shape proponents claim happiness is highest in the late teens
to early 20s, reaches a nadir in midlife, and the pattern is universal
(Blanchflower & Oswald, 2008; Stone et al., 2010), but this
evidence is based on cross-sectional data from the U.S. General
Social Surveys (GSS) and a Gallup survey, respectively. In contrast, Easterlin (2006), using GSS cross-sectional data on 93 birth
cohorts ranging in age from 18 89, reported a mild inverted
U-shape in happiness across the life span, with a lower level at age

1665

18 and a high point around age 50. The Midlife in the U.S.
longitudinal study (adults ages 2575 followed for 10 years) found
positive affect was stable from the mid-20s into the late 30s,
declined from the 30s into the 40s, rose from the 50s into the 60s,
and was highest at ages 60 69 (Lachman et al., 2015). Using the
German Socio Economic Panel Study, Baird, Lucas, and Donnellan (2010) reported that ratings of happiness were largely stable
throughout adulthood with a downturn in later life. The longitudinal U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
found little change in positive affect across 9 years in participants
ages 2574 at baseline (Costa et al., 1987). Positive affect was also
stable between young adulthood and midlife in a 23-year longitudinal study (Charles, Reynolds, & Gatz, 2001). These conflicting
results, along with the near absence of longitudinal studies tracking
teens into midlife, suggest conclusions about the shape of the
age happiness curve in the first half of adult life are premature.

The Present Study

The current study is guided by a life span developmental perspective (Lerner, Leonard, Fay, & Issac, 2011) focusing on the
level, shape, and determinants of trajectories as the life course
unfolds (Baltes, 1987). This perspective assumes variability (plasticity) in happiness across all segments of the life span; human
development results from a diversity of influences, including sociodemographic (gender), individual (e.g., personality), and contextual (e.g., family) characteristics, many of which change as
people age (Mroczek & Kolarz, 1998; Mroczek & Spiro, 2003).
Understanding the relation between age and happiness requires not
only tracking the same individuals over time but also accounting
for diverse influences that could alter the level and shape of
happiness trajectories (Headey, Muffels, & Wagner, 2010; Hoppmann et al., 2011). Indeed, previous studies found the age curve
becomes more linear when controlling for selection and time-inpanel effects or other variables related to happiness (i.e., getting
married, landing a job, or having a high income; Baird et al., 2010;
Frijters & Beatton, 2012; Ulloa et al., 2013).
We use data from two longitudinal studies to model withinperson change in happiness for up to 25 years, one of high school
seniors followed from ages 18 43 and one of university seniors
followed from ages 2337. Will happiness decline from early
adulthood into the 40s in accordance with the U-bend hypothesis
(Blanchflower & Oswald, 2008)? Or will happiness increase into
the 40s, consistent with an inverted U-shape (Easterlin, 2006)? Or
might it flatline across the same period (Baird et al., 2010; Costa
et al., 1987)? Given longitudinal evidence suggesting mental
health improves from age 18 into the 30s (Galambos, Barker, &
Krahn, 2006; Galambos & Krahn, 2008; Meadows, Brown, &
Elder, 2006), we predicted increases in happiness beginning in
early adulthood.
We control for several baseline predictors to account for sources
of diversity in happiness trajectories: gender, as studies have found
gender differences in happiness, although not consistent in direction (Diener et al., 1999); parents education (or family socioeconomic status [SES]), because more material resources have been
linked to higher happiness (Diener et al., 2013; Smith, Langa,
Kabeto, & Ubel, 2005); and grades and self-esteem, because
education- and self-related competencies are known correlates of
happiness (Lyubomirsky et al., 2005; Subramanian, Kim, & Kawa-

GALAMBOS, FANG, KRAHN, JOHNSON, AND LACHMAN

1666

Table 1
Means and Standard Deviations of Happiness and Time-Varying Covariates in Two Samples
Wave 1
M

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High school sample: mean age (years)

Outcome
Happinessa
Time-varying covariates
Marriedb
Unemployedc
Physical healthd
n (range across variables)
University sample: mean age (years)
Outcome
Happinessa
Time-varying covariates
Marriedb
Unemployedc
Physical healthd
n (range across variables)
b

18
2.39

SD

Wave 3
M

0.58

2.48

Wave 4

SD

19

20
0.55

2.50

SD

Wave 5
M

22
0.55

2.57

Wave 6

SD

25
0.52

2.55

SD

Wave 7
M

32
0.55

2.66

SD
43

0.50

2.63

0.53

0.01
0.09
0.00
0.00
3.91
1.21
961968

0.05
0.21
1.31
2.71
4.09
1.18
653657

0.07
0.26
1.13
2.30
3.95
1.01
542543

0.21
0.40
0.57
1.48
4.01
.92
497500

0.42
0.49
0.86
2.22
3.89
1.00
399400

0.67
0.47
0.13
0.93
3.95
0.96
504505

0.76
0.42
0.09
0.92
3.70
1.01
387403

23

24

25

27

30

37

2.55

0.55

0.14
0.35
0.00
0.00
4.08
1.19
567574

Possible range: 13.

1 married/cohabiting.
surveyed a seventh time.

Wave 2

SD

2.60

0.53

0.20
0.40
1.00
2.03
4.29
1.08
451453

2.58

0.53

0.26
0.44
0.70
1.64
3.94
0.95
417418

2.63

0.49

0.43
0.50
0.43
1.38
4.01
0.90
388389

2.68

0.48

2.72

0.47

0.61
0.49
0.48
1.48
4.06
0.91
352354

0.78
0.16
4.05

0.42
1.16
0.84

Months unemployed in previous year; fixed to 0 at baseline.

chi, 2005). We also control for important time-varying covariates:

marital status, as married people are generally happier than nonmarried people (Lucas, Clark, Georgellis, & Diener, 2003; Subramanian et al., 2005); unemployment, which can have negative
effects on subjective well-being (Lucas, Clark, Georgellis, & Diener, 2004); and self-rated physical health, which covaries positively with happiness (Mrozcek & Spiro, 2005; Subramanian et al.,
2005). Finally, because attrition can affect growth curve estimates,
number of waves of participation was also controlled.

Method
High School Sample
Participants (N 968; at baseline, 47% women, 80% born in
Canada, 15% non-White, and 26% with at least one universityeducated parent) were from the Edmonton Transitions Study
(ETS), a 25-year longitudinal study that began in spring 1985 with
983 Grade 12 students (age 18) who completed questionnaires in
classrooms in six schools representing working- and middle-class
neighborhoods in a large western city in Canada. The baseline
sample was representative of western Canadian urban youth born
in 1967 on race, immigration status, and parents education.
Follow-up questionnaires were mailed in 1986 (Wave 2; age 19;
n 665), 1987 (Wave 3; age 20; n 547), 1989 (Wave 4; age 22;
n 503), and 1992 (Wave 5; age 25; n 404) only to previous
wave respondents. In 1999 (Wave 6), a telephone survey targeted
all baseline participants (age 32; n 509; response of 52% after
14 years). In 2010 (Wave 7), telephone and web surveys targeted
all baseline participants (age 43; n 405; 41% response after 25
years). Half (51%) had participated in all waves (for details, see
previous publications; Chow, Galambos, & Krahn, in press; Johnson, Galambos, & Krahn, 2014; Vargas Lascano, Galambos,
Krahn, & Lachman, 2015).

344
Possible range: 15. not

Fifteen individuals were excluded from the current analyses

because they had no score for happiness at any wave or they had
no self-esteem score at baseline, resulting in the final sample of
968. Attrition analyses found that, compared to the baseline sample, more women participated in 2010. Participants in 2010 were
not different from dropouts on parents education, high school
grades, self-esteem, and physical health at baseline. Comparisons
of present and missing cases at each wave on happiness at prior
waves found that 1986, 1987, 1989, and 1992 participants were
happier at baseline than were nonparticipants, and participants in
2010 were happier in 1987 and 1989 (controlling for family-wise
error). Participants in 1999 and 2010 were not different in happiness at baseline. To control for attrition in the growth curve
analyses, number of waves of participation was entered as a
predictor of baseline happiness (M 4.11, SD 2.27; range:
17).

Measures
Means and standard deviations for happiness across time and for
time-varying covariates are presented in Table 1. Happiness was
assessed with an item similar to single-item measures labeled as
happiness in the GSS (e.g., Blanchflower & Oswald, 2008; Oishi,
Kesebir, & Diener, 2011), the 2000 Social Capital Benchmark
Survey (Subramanian et al., 2005), and the Seattle Longitudinal
Study (Hoppmann et al., 2011): Thinking about your life in
general, how happy are you with your life? Responses were coded
as 1 (not very happy at all), 2 (somewhat happy), or 3 (very happy).
Single-item happiness measures are sensitive to objective circumstances in individuals lives (Dolan, Peasgood, & White, 2008).
We examined construct validity by correlating our happiness item
with the felt depressed item from the Center for Epidemiologic
StudiesDepression Scale (CES-D; Radloff, 1977); concurrent
correlations for six waves in which both items were available
ranged from .38 to .50. In 2010, the happy CES-D item was

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AGE CURVE IN HAPPINESS

added to the ETS; it correlated at .51 with our global happiness

item, supporting convergent validity.
Baseline covariates. Gender was coded as 0 (women) or 1
(men). Parents education (M .26, SD .44) was coded as 0
(neither parent had a university degree) or 1 (one or both parents
earned a university degree). Self-reported senior year grades (M
3.29, SD .87) were measured by asking, On average, what have
your grades been like this past school year? Responses were
coded as 5 (mainly As; 80% or above), 4 (mainly Bs; 70%79%),
3 (mainly Cs; 60% 69%), 2 (mainly Ds; 50%59%), or 1 (mainly
Fs; under 50%). Self-esteem (M 3.87, SD .64) was assessed
with the mean of six items ( .75) from Rosenbergs (1989)
Self-Esteem Scale (e.g., On the whole I am satisfied with myself, I feel that I have a number of good qualities). Responses
ranged from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree).
Time-varying covariates. At each of seven waves, marital
status was coded as 0 (not married) or 1 (married/cohabiting).
Unemployment was indicated by number of months unemployed
(no job and actively seeking work) in the year prior to each wave
beginning with age 19 and was fixed to zero at age 18 when all
participants were in school. Self-rated physical health was assessed with a single item (McDowell, 2006) asking, In the past
few months, how healthy have you felt physically? At ages 18 and
19, responses were 1 (not very healthy), 2 (somewhat healthy), or
3 (very healthy), with 2 recoded to 3 and 3 recoded to 5
to match anchor points for responses in the remaining five waves
of measurement where physical health was rated on a 5-point scale
ranging from 1 (very unhealthy) to 5 (very healthy).
Time was coded as number of years since baseline (age 18) at
each wave: Wave 1 (baseline: age 18) 0, Wave 2 (age 19) 1,
Wave 3 (age 20) 2, Wave 4 (age 22) 4, Wave 5 (age 25)
7, Wave 6 (age 32) 14, and Wave 7 (age 43) 25.

University Sample
In parallel with the first six waves of data collection for the high
school sample, 589 graduating baccalaureate degree students age
30 and younger (48% women) from the five largest faculties at a
large western Canadian university completed mail questionnaires
in 1985 (n 589; M age 23.3, SD 1.97, range 20.130.3
years); every third graduating student from an alphabetized list in
these faculties was contacted. The baseline sample is representative of the Canadian population of university graduates from these
five disciplines in the mid-1980s. Follow-ups were completed in
1986 (n 458), 1987 (n 421), 1989 (n 392), and 1992 (n
357). In 1999, a telephone survey targeted all baseline participants
(n 349, 59% of original sample); 281 had participated in all
previous waves (for details, see Galambos & Krahn, 2008). After
excluding individuals with no score for happiness at any wave or
no self-esteem or grades score at baseline, the final sample size
was 574.
Gender, parents education (M .36, SD .48), and selfesteem (M 4.11, SD .56) were measured as in the high school
sample. Self-reported senior year grades (M 6.99, SD .77)
were on the universitys 9-point scale where 9 A or A and
13 F. Time was coded in the same manner as the first six waves
of the high school sample.
Attrition analyses found that participants in 1999 were not
different from the baseline sample on gender. Nor did the 1999

1667

participants differ from dropouts on baseline measures of parents

education, senior year grades, and self-esteem, but they did report
better baseline physical health. There were no differences in present and missing cases at each wave on happiness at prior waves
(controlling for family-wise error). Attrition was controlled in the
growth curve analyses by incorporating number of waves of participation as a predictor of baseline happiness (M 4.41, SD
1.96; range: 1 6).

Plan of Analysis
For both samples, three multilevel models (Raudenbush & Bryk,
2002; Singer & Willett, 2003) were constructed using HLM 7.01.
First, an unconditional means model with no covariates at Level 1
(within-person level) and no predictors at Level 2 (betweenpersons level) partitioned the proportion of total variance in happiness to within-person and between-persons factors. Second, an
unconditional growth model estimated the intercept (happiness at
baseline) and the linear time slope or rate of change in happiness
across time; a quadratic time slope was also tested. Third, a final
model (a) examined between-persons predictors (gender, parents
education, senior year grades, self-esteem) of the intercept and
linear time slope, (b) controlled for number of waves of participation on the intercept, and (c) added time-varying covariates
(marital status, unemployment, physical health) to Level 1. The
intercept in all models was estimated as randomly varying across
persons, as was the linear time slope. The quadratic time slope and
all time-varying covariates were specified as nonrandomly varying. Full-information maximum likelihood was used to generate
parameter estimates and to preserve cases containing withinperson missing values. Dichotomous predictors at baseline (gender, parents education) were uncentered, and grades, self-esteem,
and waves of participation were grand centered. Time-varying
covariates (marriage, unemployment, physical health) were person
centered.

Results
The unconditional means model determined that for the high
school sample, 34% of the total variance in happiness was between
persons and 66% was within person (38% and 62%, respectively,
in the university sample). In the high school sample, the unconditional growth model revealed a linear increase in happiness (B
.027, p .05) and a quadratic slope (B .001, p .05). On
average, happiness rose in the first 14 years of the study, with a
faster rate of change between ages 18 and 25 than between ages 25
and 32, followed by a slight decrease by age 43. The inflection
point was at 35.71 years. The correlation between the intercept and
linear time slope was .61: happiness rose faster for the less happy
at baseline.
The unconditional growth model for the university sample also
revealed a linear increase in happiness (B .021, p .05) but no
quadratic change (B .001, p .05); the intercept and linear
time slope were correlated at .68. The model-implied quadratic
trajectories for the high school sample (panel a) and the linear
trajectories for the university sample (panel b) appear in Figure 1,
illustrating the variability both across and within persons. There
was sufficient variation in the intercept and linear slope to justify
exploration of between-persons predictors of both parameters in
the next set of models for both samples.

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GALAMBOS, FANG, KRAHN, JOHNSON, AND LACHMAN

rise in happiness among those with lower baseline self-esteem, and

(d) marriage and physical health covarying positively over time
with happiness. In contrast to the high school sample, parents
education was not related to the intercept or linear slope, unemployment covaried negatively across time with happiness, and a
quadratic trend was not observed. Finally, the pattern of results did
not change when chronological age was also controlled in the
university sample analysis.
The contrast in the average trajectories of happiness in the high
school (quadratic) and university (linear) samples led us to examine
the shape of the happiness trajectory more closely in the high school
sample by considering whether these participants eventually obtained
a university degree: no (n 418) or yes (n 240). The addition of
interactions between university degree status and the growth parameters (intercept, linear slope, quadratic slope) in the final model
revealed that the quadratic trend remained regardless of university
degree acquisition (no interactions were found).

Discussion

Figure 1. Individual growth trajectories for random 5% of participants in

high school (a) and university (b) samples, overlaid by the average trajectory (based on unconditional growth models or unadjusted for covariates).
Panel a shows quadratic growth, whereas panel b illustrates linear growth.

Table 2 presents the final models for both samples. Controlling

for the effect of waves of participation and all other predictors in
the high school sample, baseline happiness was higher among
women and participants with more highly educated parents and
higher self-esteem. Also, individuals with less educated parents
and lower baseline self-esteem increased faster in happiness.
Time-varying covariates showed that in years when participants
were married and reported better physical health, they were also
happier. Notably, the linear and quadratic trends were significant
after controlling for all predictors. The inflection point was at
33.34 years.
The final model for the university sample replicated (a) the
rising linear slope in happiness, (b) higher baseline happiness in
women and those with higher baseline self-esteem, (c) the faster

We modeled growth trajectories in happiness from early adulthood to midlife among high school graduates followed from ages
18 43 and university graduates followed from ages 2337. In the
former sample, happiness increased from age 18 into the early 30s
and then turned slightly downward by the early 40s, a quadratic
trend evident in the unadjusted analyses (unconditional growth
model) and remaining after controlling for baseline (gender, parents education, grades, self-esteem) and time-varying (marriage,
unemployment, self-rated physical health) predictors as well as
number of waves of participation. In the university sample, happiness increased to age 37, with or without controls. Thus, both
data sets document a linear increase in happiness from the late
teens and early 20s into the early (high school sample) and late
(university sample) 30s, contrasting with arguments (e.g., Blanchflower & Oswald, 2008; Stone et al., 2010) that happiness decreases from early adulthood into midlife. Both studies also contradict Ulloa et al.s (2013) conclusion that the concavity
hypothesis, which necessarily includes an upward trend from
early adulthood to midlife, can most likely be dismissed (p. 240).
The slight downturn between ages 32 and 43 in our high school
sample did not reverse the earlier 14-year gains in happiness.
We believe the core difference between our results and others
lies in our longitudinal design. Cross-sectional studies (e.g.,
Blanchflower & Oswald, 2008; Stone et al., 2010) naturally confound age and cohort differences and cannot logically lead to
conclusions about intraindividual change, although some authors
are comfortable in drawing them. In both our longitudinal samples,
two thirds of total variability in happiness was within-person and
one third was between persons, demonstrating considerable intraindividual change. In contrast, all of the variability in crosssectional data is necessarily between persons; conclusions about
within-person change based solely on between-persons data are
fundamentally flawed. Additionally, as shown by Frijters and
Beattons (2012) research on life satisfaction, selection effects
inherent in cross-sectional data significantly affect results and are
much reduced in longitudinal analyses that account for the fact that
happier people are more likely to experience happiness-increasing
events such as marriage. Even accelerated designs, in which longitudinal slices are strung together to generate a life span picture of

AGE CURVE IN HAPPINESS

1669

Table 2
Final Models Predicting Happiness Trajectories in Two Samples
High school sample (n 968)

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B
Fixed effects
Intercept
Participation
Gender
Parent education
Grades
Self-esteem
Linear term
Gender
Parent education
Grades
Self-esteem
Quadratic term
Time-varying covariates
Married
Unemployed
Physical health
Random effects (variance)
Intercept
Linear term

2.470
0.029
0.103
0.093
0.030
0.315
0.010493
0.004
0.005
0.000
0.011
0.000342
0.184
0.010
0.089

ES

4.989
3.858
3.103
1.900
15.264

0.16
0.12
0.10
0.06
0.44

1.916
2.076
0.107
6.212

0.06
0.07
0.00
0.20

7.073
1.895
9.065

0.16
0.04
0.20

0.087
0.000

University sample (n 574)

B
2.590
0.008
0.091
0.058
0.011
0.367
0.020595
0.002
0.005
0.003
0.012
0.000759
0.062
0.026
0.062

ES

0.881
2.719
1.664
0.531
11.299

0.04
0.11
0.07
0.02
0.43

0.412
1.251
0.968
3.296

0.02
0.05
0.04
0.14

2.072
3.870
5.323

0.06
0.10
0.14

0.093
0.000

Note. B unstandardized regression coefficient; ES effect size (t to r transformation).

p .05.

change (e.g., Frijters & Beatton, 2012) are not ideal, as they
assume individuals tracked longitudinally early in life will follow
the same path as individuals whose growth trajectories speak to
later portions of the life span, again confounding age and cohort
differences.
Our evidence of substantial intraindividual change across early
adulthood and into midlife conforms with theoretical predictions
of plasticity in human development (Baltes, 1987) and with research demonstrating mental health improvements from the teens
to early 20s (e.g., Meadows et al., 2006). It is important to
remember that, although the average trajectory of happiness increased into the 30s, individual trajectories (and random effects for
the intercept and linear slope) reveal differences across persons in
intraindividual change (see Figure 1), similar to the diversity
observed by Hoppmann et al. (2011). This is another reason why
general patterns of growth could differ from one study to the next.
For example, stable trajectories in positive affect found for earlier
portions of the adult life span (Charles et al., 2001; Costa et al.,
1987) likely obscure numerous trajectories flowing in opposite
directions. We know from our results that diversity in individual
growth trajectories begins early as a function of gender, socioeconomic background, and self-esteem, predictors that influence the
level of happiness and alter the rate of growth. Additional diversity
emerges from important life events such as changes in marital
status, unemployment, and physical health, which raise or lower
happiness when they occur. There may be an average happiness
trajectory across the life span that longitudinal studies can discern but there is no single trajectory.
With respect to predictors of happiness, women were happier in
both samples, a small but significant effect. Subramanian et al.
(2005) also found higher happiness in women in a sample of
24,118 U.S. residents. Diener et al. (1999) concluded that women
and men generally do not differ in global happiness but where

women are happier, it may be due to experiencing more extreme

emotions. Consistent with previous findings (Lyubomirsky et al.,
2005), self-esteem and happiness were positively associated at
baseline in both samples, a rather large effect. However, lower
baseline self-esteem was associated with a steeper increase in
happiness. This faster increase might be due to a ceiling effect;
given the 3-point response scale, participants with lower initial
self-esteem had more room to increase over time.
Also in both samples, participants were happier in years when
they were married and in better physical health. The boost in
happiness associated with marriage is well documented (Diener et
al., 1999; Lucas et al., 2003), and there is strong evidence for the
importance of physical health as a correlate of happiness at the
individual and community levels (Subramanian et al., 2005). Unemployment is a strong correlate of lower well-being (Lucas et al.,
2004), an association found only in the university sample. Perhaps
the import of unemployment for happiness is stronger in participants who might assume that postsecondary education would
provide more job security. In contrast, higher parent education (or
family SES) was a predictor of higher baseline happiness and a
slower rise in happiness only in the high school sample. The
material and cultural advantages that higher SES families provide
children likely account for the association of parent education with
happiness (ORand, 2002). The slower rise in happiness among
participants with more highly educated parents might be due to a
ceiling effect. Selectivity of the university educated participants
(older at baseline, likelihood that they came from more advantaged
families, and higher educational attainment) would explain why
parent education was not a significant predictor of their happiness.
It would be interesting to further explore baseline and time-varying
predictors of happiness trajectories in future longitudinal research.
Our single-item measure of happiness bears some discussion.
Although similar items are frequently used, a multi-item instru-

GALAMBOS, FANG, KRAHN, JOHNSON, AND LACHMAN

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1670

ment showing measurement invariance across time is preferable

(McDowell, 2006). We are reminded that the literature on happiness and life satisfaction is replete with multiple definitions and
operationalizations of both constructs, so conclusions about trajectories of change must be considered carefully in the context of
conceptual and measurement issues (Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development, 2013). The findings of an upward
trend in our measure of happiness are consistent with others who
have found increases in positive affect into midlife (Lachman et
al., 2015; Mroczek & Kolarz, 1998; Stone et al., 2010). Regardless
of labeling, our results suggest improvements on average in one
indicator of subjective well-being in the first decades of the adult
life span.
Turning to possible limitations, the high school sample after 25
years was biased toward women, and there was evidence that
baseline happiness was higher among participants in Waves 25.
The use of all available data (all present at baseline) and inclusion
of gender and number of waves of participation as control variables help to offset selectivity. Furthermore, there was little evidence of attrition bias in the university sample, which had strikingly similar results. Generalizability, too, is an issue. Although
the samples were representative of the populations from which
they were drawn and likely representative of cohorts of youth from
the same era in other similar North American cities, nationally
representative samples are preferable. Our longitudinal studies
followed a single cohort (the class of 1985); younger cohorts may
not necessarily follow the same trajectory. Like other studies of
happiness, however, this sample was generally happy, with average scores between somewhat happy and very happy.
Longitudinal research on age-related change in happiness in the
early part of the adult life course should be a future priority.
Cross-sectional studies have reached the point of diminishing
returns and possibly even misleading conclusions. The current
study and others (e.g., Lachman et al., 2015; Mroczek & Spiro,
2005) provide strong evidence that longitudinal designs and associated analytic strategies are likely to generate more valid knowledge about levels, changes in, and sources of happiness across the
life span. Governments around the world increasingly rely on
social indicators such as happiness to shape public policies and
social programs, and researchers have been urged to generate
systematic accounts of well-being (Diener et al., 2008; Helliwell
et al., 2013). Hence, it is more important than ever to ensure study
designs and analyses are appropriate to the aims. Developmental
science has a role to play.

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Received January 12, 2015

Revision received July 24, 2015
Accepted August 3, 2015