MANITOBA ELECTION

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM CST, MARCH 31st, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,860 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on March 29th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and
cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.27%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.07%; Rest of
Manitoba: +/-3.4%; ; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

PCs GAIN IN WINNIPEG

March 31, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the PC party picking up support in
Winnipeg as the number of undecided voters drops. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error
of +/- 2.27%, 19 times out of 20.
Following the Easter weekend its the PC party that seems to have gained momentum said Quito Maggi,
President of Mainstreet Research. The PCs are now leading denitively in Winnipeg. While their level of
support has dropped outside Winnipeg they hold such a large lead it almost doesnt matter. If the PCs can
hold onto these numbers the NDP and Liberals will nd themselves virtually wiped out.
Among Decided and Leaning Voters (province wide): PCs 45% (+1%), NDP 23% (-1%), Liberals 24% (-),
Greens 7% (-)
In Winnipeg the PCs hold a 13% among decided and leaning voters continued Maggi. Support is being
split by the NDP and Liberals, its the perfect storm.
When we look at party support strength the PCs are leading there as well with the vast majority of their
supporters reporting they will not change their minds. Among second ballot preference for voters who
might switch their ballots its the Liberals who come out on top if there is slippage for the PCs or NDP. The
PCs are essentially tied as the second choice of Liberal supporters, essentially a wash.
The last opportunity for the NDP and Liberals is now the televised debate. After weeks of campaigning,
Brian Pallister and the PC Party have not made any signicant mistakes. The televised leaders debate will
likely be the last best opportunity to turn this campaign around, he nished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If the provincial election

were held today,which party
would you support? (Manitoba)

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan 7

Jan 27

NDP

Feb 11

PC

Feb 20

Liberal

Mar 12

Green

Mar 19

Undecided

Mar 29

A4

If the provincial election

were held today,which party
would you support? (Winnipeg)

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Jan 7

Jan 27

NDP

Feb 11

PC

Feb 20

Liberal

Mar 12

Green

Mar 19

Undecided

Mar 29

A5

If the provincial election

were held today,which party
would you support? (Rest of Manitoba)

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan 7

Jan 27

NDP

Feb 11

PC

Feb 20

Liberal

Mar 12

Green

Mar 19

Undecided

Mar 29

A6

If the provincial election

were held today,which party
would you support?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

NDP

15%

20%

18%

19%

19%

16%

PC

26%

38%

43%

42%

38%

35%

Liberal

28%

14%

14%

15%

17%

20%

Green

10%

4%

5%

3%

8%

3%

PC
Undecided

21%

25%

20%

21%

18%

26%

Sample

220

391

572

677

869

991

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

NDP

18%

22%

12%

PC

36%

33%

42%

Liberal

18%

19%

17%

Green

6%

5%

6%

Undecided

22%

21%

23%

Sample

1,860

1,021

839

A7

And which party are you

leaning towards voting for?
[Undecided Only]

9%

11%

12%

62%
6%

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

A8

If the provincial election

were held today,which party
would you support?

DECIDED & LEANING

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Jan 7

Jan 27

Feb 11

Feb 20

Mar 12

Mar 19

Mar 29

Mar 19

Mar 29

DECIDED ONLY

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Jan 7

Jan 27

Feb 11

Feb 20

Mar 12

A9

DECIDED AND LEANING

WINNIPEG

40
35
30
25
20
15
10

40%

25%

8%

27%

NDP

PC

MLP

GP

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

A10

DECIDED AND LEANING

REST OF MANITOBA

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10

53%

22%

9%

15%

NDP

PC

MLP

GP

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

A11

If the provincial election

were held today,which party
would you support?
[DECIDED AND LEANING]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

NDP

20%

25%

23%

24%

22%

24%

PC

32%

46%

53%

52%

44%

45%

Liberal

35%

21%

18%

20%

22%

26%

Green

13%

8%

6%

4%

11%

5%

Sample

184

325

499

561

759

810

PC

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

NDP

23%

27%

15%

PC

45%

40%

53%

Liberal

24%

25%

22%

Green

8%

8%

9%

1,569

836

733

Sample

A12

Support Strength

PC
Strong 76%
Might Change 16%
Not Sure 8%

NDP
Strong 60%
Might Change 29%
Not Sure 12%

Liberals
Strong 59%
Might Change 28%
Not Sure 12%

A13

Second Choice

PC Voters

NDP Voters
14%

17%

23%
31%

17%

9%
52%

37%

Liberal Voters

Green Party Voters

9%

20%

9%
34%

38%

15%

44%
31%

A14

SCRIPT

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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