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DREAMS AND NIGHTMARES

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM CST, APRIL 10, 2016


PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,844 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on April 5th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell
phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.28%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.05%; Rest of
Manitoba: +/-3.44%; ; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected


by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

WORST CASE SCENARIO RIGHT NOW FOR PCs IS A MINORITY GOVERNMENT


April 10, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) After crunching the numbers from the newest Manitoba poll released,
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After looking at the numbers from our earlier release this week we wanted to see what the best and worst
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the best case scenario we gave each party all of its voters plus leaning voters and all the soft voters who
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they would have a 10% lead.
Without a dramatic change in the next few days this race is a foregone conclusion.
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one seat they already have but they would be hard pressed to add another.
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Manitobans than ever before will be following the election campaign. There is still time for a surprise but
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$*#!+"*1)!.//++**%/$!  ##%

About Mainstreet Research


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in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
,+((%*#.)0++..!0(5,.! %0 %!.()&+.%05#+2!.*)!*0%*0$!"! !.(!(!0%+*
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

NDP DREAM SCENARIO

All Voters 24%

38%

Winnipeg 28%

36%

Rest of Manitoba 17%

42%

7% 20%
5% 22%
14%

45%

Decided RoM 21%



9%

48%

Decided Winnipeg 35%

10

6% 21%

14%

Decided Only 30%

11%

11%

54%
20

30

18%
40

%!.(

50

60

Green

70

80

Undecided

8%
9%
7%

90

100

NDP NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

All Voters 12%

44%

Winnipeg 15%

19%

43%

19%

Rest of Manitoba 8% 47%


Decided Only 15%

53%
50%



20

16%
14%

8% 18%
23%

10%

22%

Decided RoM 10% 57%


10

9%

19%

Decided Winnipeg 17%

9%

11%

23%
30

40

%!.(

50

60

Green

70

10%
80

Undecided

90

100

PC DREAM SCENARIO

All Voters 18%

46%

Winnipeg 22%
Rest of Manitoba 11%

43%



10

12%
56%

Decided Winnipeg 26%

11%

50%

Decided Only 22%

Decided RoM 14%

11%

52%
64%
20

7% 19%
7% 17%
5% 21%

14%

8%

13%

9%

15%
30

40

%!.(

50

Green

60

70

80

Undecided

90

7%
100

PC NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

All Voters 22%

33%

Winnipeg 26%

31%

Rest of Manitoba 15%

Decided Winnipeg 31%



10

8% 22%
11%

21%

46%
30

18%

22%

37%

20

20%

9%

19%
41%

Decided RoM 19%

9%

17%

36%

Decided Only 27%

18%

11%

24%
40

%!.(

50

60

Green

70

11%
80

Undecided

90

100

LIBERAL DREAM SCENARIO

All Voters 15%

36%

Winnipeg 19%

23%

33%

24%

Rest of Manitoba 10% 41%


Decided Only 19%

Decided RoM 12%


0



10

7%

29%

53%

22%
28%

41%

20

6% 19%

21%
46%

Decided Winnipeg 23%

6% 20%

7%

27%
30

40

%!.(

50

60

Green

70

7%
80

Undecided

90

100

LIBERAL NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

All Voters 22%

44%

Winnipeg 27%
Rest of Manitoba 14%

41%

7% 9%
54%

Decided Winnipeg 33%



20%
8% 11%

49%

Decided RoM 18%


10

18%

6% 8% 17%

49%

Decided Only 27%

7% 9%

8% 10%

62%
20

30

9%
40

%!.(

50

Green

60

70

80

Undecided

90

12%
100

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
!/!.$3/0$!+*(5,+((/0!. /3((0$! %!.()&+.%053%0$/1$+* !*!3!!'
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
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for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
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| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

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!(!0%+* +/0.!!*0(5 %*/0.!!03/0$!+*(5,+((%*#.)0++..!0(5,.! %0 %!.()&+.%05
government in the 2015 federal election.

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