PROBABILITYWORKSHOP

Let'sstartwithsomebasics..
Whatisasamplespace?thesetofpossibleoutcomesforarandomvariable
Whatisthesamplespaceofacointoss?heads,tails
Whatisthesamplespaceofdrawingaparticularcardfromafulldeck?Aceofclubs,Kingofclubs,Queen
ofclubs,Jackofclubs,9ofclubs,etc.etc.etc.throughallthesuits
Whatisthesamplespaceofdrawingaheartfromafulldeck?heart,notheart
Whatistherangeofprobabilityforasamplepoint(or"simpleevent")?0to1
Whatisthesummedprobabilityofallsamplepointsinasamplespace?1
Howdoyoufindtheprobabilityofaneventmadeupofseveralsamplepoints?(rephrasethisquestionin
yourownwordsfirst)IfyouwantedtheprobabilityofAorBorC,youwouldusetheadditionrule
Whenameteorologistsaysthat"theprobabilityofrainthisafternoonis.4"doesitmeanthat40%ofthe
timeduringtheafternoon,itwillberaining?Whatdoesitinfactmean?Ifwethinkthatmeteorologistsuse
probabilitiesasmathematiciansdo,thiswouldmeanthatthereisa40%chanceofrainsometimeduring
theafternoon.4timesoutof10,whenameteorologistsaysthis,itshouldactuallyrain(speakinginthe
longrun).
WhatistheprobabilitythatitrainedyesterdayinNewYork?1.Eventsthathavealreadyhappenedarenot
random
Whatistheprobabilitythatitdidn'trainyesterdayinNewYork?Whatisthisprobabilitycalled,when
relatedtothepreviousquestion'sprobability?0.Thisisthecomplementofthepreviousanswer.

Findingonewayprobabilities
UsingaComplement
1. Adieisrolledfourtimes.Findthechanceofnotgetting4sixes.
1295/1296=.999
2.

Kevinflipsacoinfourtimes.Whatistheprobabilitythathegetsheadsonatleastoneofthefour
flips?
15/16
3.

OPTIONALTenstonetileswithnumbersfrom0to9areplacedinabowl.Franktakesonetilefrom
thebowl,recordsthenumber,thenreplacesthetileandtakesanothertilefromthebowl.Ifitis
possibleforthesametiletobetakenfromthebowlbothtimes,whatarethechancesthatatleastoneof
thenumbersFrankrecordsisa7?Twowaystosolve:
1(.9*.9)=.81
(.1)+(.1)(.01)=.19
ORproblemsrequiringuseoftheadditiverule
Takeamomenttoreviewtheadditiveruleofprobability!!!Thengoon.
Brown
Blue
Green
Other
.65
.20
.10
.05
Youhaveplacedabetwithyourspouseontheeyecolorofyoursoontoarrivefirstchild.Youwillwin
thebetifthechildhasblueorgreeneyes.Whatistheprobabilitythatyouwinthebet?.30
1million
1.5million
2million
4million
10million
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.1
4. RotterPartnersisplanningamajorinvestment.Theamountofprofitisuncertainbutaprobabilistic
estimategivestheabovedistribution.WhatistheprobabilitythatRotterPartnersmakesover2million
dollars?Whatistheprobabilitythattheymakeunder10milliondollars?
a).30
b).90
OPTIONALTwocoinsaretossed.Youwillwinthegameifthefirstisheadsorthesecondistails.What
istheprobabilitythatyouwillwin?.75
ANDproblemsrequiringuseofthemultiplicativeruledoyourememberthemultiplicativerule?
5.

Joshflipsacoin4times.Whatistheprobabilitythathewillgetheadsonthefirst2throwsandtails
onthelast2throws?1/16

6.

Thereareatotalof10marblesinajar,ofwhichfivearegreenmarblesand5areblue.If2marbles
areremovedfromthejaratrandom,whatistheprobabilitythatthe2marblesremovedfromthejar
willbothbeblue?2/9

7.

OPTIONALAdeckofcardsisshuffledandthetoptwocardsareplacedfacedownonatable.Trueor
false,andexplain.
a) Thereis1chancein52forthefirstcardtobetheaceofclubs.
b) Thereis1chancein52forthesecondcardtobetheaceofdiamonds.
a)true,becauseinonedrawthereisoneaceofclubsand52cardstotal.1/52

b)true,BUTFORADIFFERENTREASONTHAN(A).thisistheevent
P(firstcardisNOTaceofdiamondsandsecondcardISaceofdiamonds).
Thisis51/52*1/51=1/52.
Findingtwowayprobabilities
ConditionalProbability
What'stheformulausedtoconditionalprobability?
HighestEducation
Didnotfinishhighschool
Highschoolbutnocollege
Lessthanabachelorsdegree
Collegegraduate

Employed
11,139
35,137
31,975
36,269

Unemployed
16,186
22,084
13,496
11,112

8. Whatistheprobabilitythatapersonisacollegegraduate,giventhathe/sheisemployed?
.32
9. Whatistheprobabilitythatapersonisemployed,giventhathe/sheisacollegegraduate?
.77
10. OPTIONALTheprobabilityofapersonlikingchocolateicecreamis60%.Theprobabilityofa
personlikingvanillaicecreamis80%.Theprobabilityofapersonlikingbothchocolateandvanilla
icecreamis50%.Createatablethatshowstheseprobabilities.Whatistheprobabilitythataperson
chosenatrandomwilllikechocolateicecream,giventhathe/shelikesvanilla?
.63
11. OPTIONALAtacertainsportsclub,60membersplaytennis,30playgolf,15playbothgolfand
tennis,and25playneithergolfnortennis.Whatistheconditionalprobabilitythatamemberchosenat
randomwillplaygolf,giventhathe/sheplaystennis?
.25
StatisticalIndependence
Whatarethestepstotaketodeterminestatisticalindependence?Reviewthembeforeattemptingthe
followingproblems.
12. Inproblems10and11above,aretheeventscollegegraduateandemployedstatistically
independent?
No.Manyreasonspossible.OnereasonisthatP(A|B)doesnotequalP(A).AnotherreasonisthatP(B|
A)doesnotequalP(B).AnotherreasonisthatP(A|B)doesnotequalP(B|A).AfinalreasonisthatP(A
andB)doesnotequalP(A)P(B).
13. Examinethetablebelow.Aretheeventsmarriedandage3064statisticallyindependent?
Age
Married Unmarried
1829
7,842
14,670
3064
43,808
18,881
65+
8,270
10,399
No.Manyreasonspossible.Seeanswerto12.

14. OPTIONALAmongagroupofclassmates,4liketowakeupearly,24liketostayuplate,3liketoget
upearlyandstayoutlate,and7likeneithertowakeupearlynortostayuplate.Depictthisinatable
orinaVenndiagram.Aretheeventsliketowakeupearlyandliketostayuplatestatistically
independent?
Yes.Manyreasonspossible.OnereasonisbecauseP(AandB)=P(A)P(B).Anotherreasonisbecause
P(A|B)=P(A).andsoon.
ProblemsthatcombineANDandOR
15. Anordinarydeckof52cardsisshuffled.Whatistheprobabilitythatthetopfourcardshavedifferent
suits?(hard)
Thereare24differentwaystoget4cardsofdifferentsuits(H,S,C,DorH,S,D,C,orH,C,S,D
...).Eachcombinationisequallylikely,sowellfindtheprobabilityofoneofthem,andthenmultiplyitby
24togettheanswer.TheprobabilityofH,S,C,Dis(13/52)*(13/51)*(13/50)*(13/49)=.0044.So
multiplyby24toget.105
16. UrnAcontains3redand3blackballs,whereasurnBcontains4redand6blackballs.Ifaballis
randomlyselectedfromeachurn,whatistheprobabilitythattheballswillbethesamecolor?
P{(redandred)or(blackandblack)}=.50
17. Inthegameofmonopoly,aplayerrollstwodice,countsthetotalnumberofdots,andmovesthat
manysquares.Findthechancethattheplayermoves11squares(nomoreandnoless).
P{(6and5)or(5and6)}=1/1
Mixingitup!
18. Asixsideddiewithfacesnumberedonethroughsixisrolledtwice.Whatistheprobabilitythatthe
facewiththenumber2onitwillnotbefacingupwardoneitherrole?
P(firstisnota2andsecondisnota2)=25/36
19. Asixsideddieistossedtwice.Whatistheconditionalprobabilityofgettinga4onthesecondtoss,
giventhatyougota4onthefirsttoss?
Theeventsareindependentso1/6
20. Youhavetornatendonandarefacingsurgerytorepairit.Theorthopedicsurgeonexplainstherisks
toyou.Infectionoccursin3%ofsuchoperations,therepairfailsin14%,andbothinfectionand
failureoccurtogetherin1%.Whatpercentoftheseoperationsbothsucceedandarefreefrom
infection?
Total=infection+failureboth+neither
Soneither=84%
21. Vivian,anadequateblackjackplayeratbest,hasa25%chanceofwinningeachhandofblackjackshe
plays.Ifshehas$300,andbets$100ahand,whatistheprobabilitythatshewillstillhavemoney
afterthethirdhand?
Usethecomplement.Whatistheprobabilitythatshelosesallhermoney?P(L,L,L)=27/64.Sothe
probabilitythatshestillhasmoneyis37/64
22. Apokerhandisdealt.Findtheprobabilitythatthefirstfourcardsareacesandthefifthisaking.
23. Twowaystosolve:
P(firstcardisqueenORsecondcardisqueen)=P(firstqueen)*P(secondqueen)P(both)=.15

24. Twocardswillbedealtfromawellshuffleddeck.Whatistheprobabilitythatatleastoneofthetwo
cardsisaqueen?
P{(Queen,NotQueen)OR(NotQueen,Queen)OR(Queen,Queen)}=.15
1P(NotQueen,NotQueen)=.15
25. Ifxistobechosenatrandomfromtheset{1,2,3,4}andyistobechosenatrandomfromtheset
{5,6,7},whatistheprobabilitythatxywillbeeven?
P{(even,even)OR(even,odd)OR(odd,even)}=2/3
1P(odd,odd)=2/3