Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
1 PRONOSTICOS
INSTRUCTOR
GERMAN CASTRO BERNAL
CDIGO
ENE
10103010
GRUP
O
G1
2010
2010
10103020
G2
6,578
5,427
2010
10103110
G3
1,690
2010
10103120
G4
2010
10103210
2010
4,779
FEB
MAR
12,523 12,500
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AG SEP
O
11,619 3,385
OCT
NOV
DIC
4,120
12,721
9,710
15,119
8,656
6,654
8,483
4,534
11,253
9,406 4,681
5,775
9,311
8,164
5,558
2,381
4,669
6,320
7,195
7,349
6,310 2,813
3,630
2,237
4,652
1,690
5,558
2,381
4,669
6,320
7,195
7,349
6,310 2,813
4,024
2,237
4,652
G5
4,129
1,191
4,092
3,793
3,507
4,263
3,802
4,164 3,200
2,405
1,841
3,308
10103310
G6
4,129
1,191
4,092
3,793
3,507
4,263
3,802
4,164 3,200
2,405
1,841
3,308
2009
10103010
G1
4,445
13,456 15,388
11,067
11,172
8,715 2,945
3,456
9,160
7,963
2009
10103020
G2
5,855
4,776
8,310
4,791
6,532
3,174
7,990
6,773 3,605
4,101
8,194
7,675
2009
10103110
G3
1,589
4,225
1,715
3,269
4,614
6,476
5,733
6,058 2,392
3,522
2,103
3,955
2009
10103120
G4
1,319
3,891
2,239
4,249
5,436
6,332
7,056
5,995 1,970
3,179
1,947
3,908
2009
10103210
G5
3,634
894
2,988
3,452
2,981
3,368
3,498
3,706 2,784
1,997
1,768
2,515
2009
10103310
G6
2,973
1,132
3,151
3,680
3,297
3,709
3,270
3,915 3,104
1,973
1,639
2,945
2008
10103010
G1
3,468
10,827
8,282
12,245 14,927
8,965
9,273
6,188 2,415
3,111
8,428
7,008
2008
10103020
G2
5,036
4,108
7,978
3,737
4,899
2,794
7,032
6,299 2,596
3,404
6,064
6,064
2008
10103110
G3
1,303
3,127
1,458
2,452
3,830
6,217
5,447
4,423 1,986
3,311
1,578
3,006
2008
10103120
G4
1,214
2,763
2,150
3,995
4,512
5,573
5,081
4,916 1,773
2,385
1,733
2,971
2008
10103210
G5
2,617
716
2,720
2,451
2,534
2,796
2,764
2,965 1,977
1,538
1,556
1,786
2008
10103310
G6
2,082
1,087
2,427
3,423
2,968
3,598
2,551
3,641 2,980
1,776
1,476
2,445
2007
10103010
G1
3,018
9,745
6,626
11,511
11,046
6,366
8,624
5,693 1,763
2,427
8,091
6,238
2007
10103020
G2
4,785
3,451
7,659
3,551
4,067
2,320
5,696
5,985 2,103
2,485
5,094
5,216
2007
10103110
G3
1,121
2,721
1,342
2,305
2,796
5,036
4,630
3,185 1,748
2,649
1,168
2,495
2007
10103120
G4
1,105
2,156
1,505
3,276
3,384
4,403
4,878
1,387 2,645
2007
10103210
G5
2,330
674
2,068
1,741
1,774
2,713
2,046
1,276 1,286
2007
10103310
G6
1,853
914
2,039
2,705
2,464
3,347
2,220
2,622
2,116 1,652
1,196 1,932
2006
10103010
G1
2,415
8,966
5,699 10,936
8,837
5,284
7,935
5,988 4,679
2006
10103020
G2
3,781
2,796
6,664
3,090
3,132
1,856
4,899
4,738 4,278
2006
10103110
G3
841
2,313
980
2,167
2,293
4,432
4,029
935 2,246
2006
10103120
G4
929
1,919
1,250
2,851
2,742
3,919
3,903
1,277 2,460
11,396 11,345
2006
10103210
G5
2,191
493
1,614
1,567
1,704
2,198
1,555
1,723 1,274
989
1,238 1,055
2006
10103310
G6
1,798
851
1,632
2,219
1,750
3,046
2,021
1,077 1,449
2005
10103010
G1
2,295
6,277
5,244
9,624
8,219
3,911
6,825
4,192 4,352
2005
10103020
G2
2,912
2,014
6,465
2,967
2,694
1,782
4,753
3,554 3,851
2005
10103110
G3
791
1,620
824
1,951
1,904
4,167
3,788
795 1,775
2005
10103120
G4
809
1,382
1,150
2,623
2,194
3,724
3,084
1,137 2,264
2005
10103210
G5
1,950
449
1,550
1,317
1,313
1,693
1,431
1,431 1,109
960
954 1,013
2005
10103310
G6
1,277
758
1,551
2,131
1,365
2,285
1,860
830 1,406
2004
10103010
G1
2,135
4,771
4,510
9,047
6,658
2,738
5,392
3,731 3,395
2004
10103020
G2
2,709
1,793
4,591
2,433
2,479
1,711
4,611
2,986 3,312
2004
10103110
G3
760
1,151
759
1,366
1,505
3,709
2,804
1,657
826 1,220
740 1,580
2004
10103120
G4
599
1,272
817
2,414
1,756
3,278
2,375
3,433
935 1,161
819 1,653
2004
10103210
G5
1,755
405
1,333
1,159
1,143
1,609
1,045
1,389 1,032
2004
10103310
G6
1,035
728
1,102
1,982
1,311
1,691
1,544
2003
10103010
G1
1,623
3,960
4,014
7,238
5,993
2,519
4,745
2,310
877 1,421
2,799 2,852
2003
10103020
G2
2,574
1,686
4,086
2,215
1,835
1,660
3,735
2,628 2,484
2003
10103110
G3
654
1,117
699
1,271
1,189
3,339
2,328
1,177
587 1,050
607 1,185
2003
10103120
G4
456
1,031
646
2,342
1,282
2,951
1,877
3,296
870
964
615 1,158
2003
10103210
G5
1,317
393
1,120
858
1,063
1,288
857
1,209
774
555
631
717
2003
10103310
G6
766
576
838
1,428
1,010
1,438
1,483
841 1,312
986
449
968
2002
10103010
G1
1,234
3,446
3,172
5,719
5,334
2,217
3,986
2,195
746 1,251
2,240 2,282
2002
10103020
G2
1,854
1,400
3,760
1,595
1,322
1,544
3,250
1,840 1,913
2002
10103110
G3
615
1,039
595
1,144
880
2,872
2,119
930
552
924
438 1,079
2002
10103120
G4
415
753
537
2,155
1,180
2,538
1,352
3,132
618
675
456
869
2002
10103210
G5
1,001
276
997
678
1,000
1,070
789
1,040
666
400
600
603
2002
10103310
G6
675
519
646
1,300
748
1,280
1,409
606 1,194
908
414
756
2001
10103010
G1
938
3,205
2,855
4,690
3,894
1,885
3,468
1,669
914
1,815 2,054
2001
10103020
G2
1,539
1,204
3,497
1,548
1,098
1,406
2,373
1,546 1,856
2001
10103110
G3
486
936
435
1,064
704
2,097
1,971
661
409
786
368 1,047
2001
10103120
G4
391
648
376
1,746
1,086
2,310
1,001
2,663
439
621
393
800
2001
10103210
G5
731
235
698
536
700
782
632
760
567
352
462
501
2001
10103310
G6
540
395
517
1,209
614
909
1,226
552
860
809
381
704
720
627
678
770
623 1,125
Ella piensa que una previsin precisa de las ventas le ayudara a planificar sus
necesidades de transporte. Empleando los primeros cuarto aos como datos base
para la estimacin, y reservando los del ltimo para comprobar la precisin de los
resultados:
a. Efectuar un anlisis de la demanda, a fin de garantizar la veracidad de la
informacin.
Realizando un anlisis de la demanda en primera instancia se observa que el
perodo para calcular es un ao, que los datos deben anidarse por grupo y por ao
para obtener los consolidados y as prepararlos para aplicar el mtodo ms
conveniente en este caso.
Datos Consolidados
AO
2001
2002
2003
2004
2010
VENTAS
67.144
81.288
95.948
114.487
189.615
GRAFICA 1
GRAFICA 2
VENTAS
2001
67.144
2002
81.288
2003
95.948
2004
114.487
2010
189.615
2011 y = 27814(6) + 26254
AO
2001
2002
2003
2004
2010
2011
VENTAS
67144
81288
95948
114487
189615
193138