FORMULA

Multilevel Modelling of
Formula One Driver and

Andrew Bell ,
2
James Smith ,
2
Clive Sabel ,
2
Kelvyn Jones
1

Constructor Performance
1950-2014.

FOR SUCCESS:

Who is the greatest Formula 1 driver of all time?

This is a difficult question to answer since we often dont
know whether drivers do well because of their talent, or
because they are driving a good car.

We can start to answer the question by

considering the multilevel structure of the
data race positions are affected by the
driver, and the team that races
(in a given year).

most, and consider which drivers are the

best when we take out the effect of the
teams.

Team
Driver

This is a cross-classified design, since

drivers do not always race for the same
team.

We can now use a multilevel model to

find out which of these levels matter the

Team-Year

Observation

| Michael Schumacher
| JM Fangio

These are the best drivers from a basic

results perspective, but at the moment,
we are not taking into account some
teams are better than others.

| Alain Prost

5th | Lewis Hamilton

So we dont know whether the driver or

the team is what produces these good
results.

8th | Fernando Alonso

1st

2nd

3rd

This is what happens when we remove the effects of the team

12th | Lewis Hamilton gets the 5th best results but the car
plays a big part in this - he is only the 12th best driver

9th | Alberto Ascari

(according to our model.)

3rd | Michael Schumacher has the best results, but this is at

least in part because of his car - he is not the best driver.
1st | JM Fangio

2nd | Alain Prost

76th | Alberto Ascari's results are the 9th

best but he is only the 76th best driver!

This could be because some teams have better..

Team Tactics

6th | Fernando Alonso is the best driver currently racing, even though
Hamilton's results are better - his car has, in general, been worse.

Car Design

Engine

Tires

Maintenance

We find that the Team matters 85% and the Driver 15%

''The difference between

each driver in Formula 1,
from the best to the worst
is about 20 percent driver
and 80 percent car.''

33% Changing team-year effect

52% Constant team effect

So the team matters much more than the driver, and that is
mostly because of factors that do not change year-to-year.

Nico Rosberg, a current

Merecedes driver.
1

Sheffield Methods Institute, University of Sheffield; 2School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol