EDMA310/360 Mathematics unit planner

Amy Freeman

Unit Overview
Unit title:
Whats the Chance?
Content maths area:
Probability
Grade/year level:
Grade: 6
AusVELS Level: 6
Learning Focus (ideas extrapolated from AusVELS):
Content Strand: Statistics and Probability
Substrand: Chance
Proficiency strands: Understanding, Reasoning
Rationale:
In everyday life, probability is a concept that will be encountered by children on a daily
basis. Learning probability provides a meaningful situation for students to be problem
solvers, critical thinkers, improve their communication skills, work on their number
sense, utilise computation methods and draw links to numerous other areas of
mathematics (Reys, Lindquist, Lambdin, Smith, Rogers, Falle, Frid, & Bennett, 2012).
Jones (1979) argues that without the teaching of chance, there is the prospect that
children may respond to everyday situations that necessitate a chance understanding
with predetermined ideas, instinctive judgements and little knowledge that chance
events are even occurring.
Assumed prior knowledge of students:
chance language eg. probable, impossible, certain
probabilities range between 0 and 1
independent and dependent events
probabilities in fraction form
calculation of decimals and percentages
Grouping strategies to support learning:
Throughout these lessons, students will be both working in pairs as well as working
individually, however they will be in mixed abilities rather than grouping based on same
ability levels. In a study conducted by Linchevski and Kutscher (1998), it was found that
weaker students in mixed ability groupings saw significant gains in their achievements
over those in same ability grouping, and the higher students in each setting remained at
a constant level of achievement, concluding that it is possible for students of all ability
levels to learn mathematics effectively in a mixed ability class. The challenge is to
enhance the possibilities for each student to learn while avoiding disadvantaging any
particular group or student. Sullivan (1997) argues that utilising open tasks can allow

rich learning experiences for all students, regardless of ability grouping, which will occur
throughout this unit planner.
Overview of assessment:
Teachers should ensure the purpose of assessment relates to the information required,
assess the entire scope of learning goals using multiple strategies, involve students in
the process, use assessment strategies inclusive to all, make unbiased judgements,
provide feedback to students an d reflect on the information collected to plan future
learning (Australian Association of Mathematics Teachers Inc., 2008). These priorities
are reflected throughout the unit planner.
The assessment strategy used for the first three lessons will be teacher observation,
guided by criteria. This allows for clear identification of what it being looked out for,
providing guidelines of the standards to meet.
Peer assessment is used in Lesson 4 because as a learning tool, peer assessment can
provide students with skills to form judgements about what constitutes high quality work
and can also provide students a more accurate understanding of individual performance
in group work (Van Zundert, Sluijsmans & Van Merrinboer, 2010). As the teacher may
will be roving and not one-on-one while the game is played, peer assessment allows the
teacher some insight into the occurrences also.
Self assessment is used in the last lesson, which is an open task guided by an
advertisement which outlines the expectations. This makes clear right away the
standards that need to be met. Pupils should be involved in becoming critical evaluators
of their own work and acknowledge responsibility for their learning so peer assessment
allows this to happen. Primary children in Year 6 are capable of reflecting on their work,
using initiative and being held accountable for their learning (Towler & Broadfoot, 1992).
References:
Aspinwall, L., & Shaw, K. L. (2000). Enriching Students' Mathematical Intuitions with
Probability Games and Tree Diagrams. Mathematics Teaching in the Middle
School, 6(4), 214-20.
Aspinwall, L., & Tarr, J. E. (2002). The number of trials does matter. Mathematics
Teaching in the Middle School, 8(2), 106.
Australian Association of Mathematics Teachers Inc. (2008). Position paper on the
practice of assessing mathematics learning, pp. 1-9.
Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority. (2015). AusVELS.
Retrieved from http://ausvels.vcaa.vic.edu.au/
Barnes, M. (1998). Dealing with Misconceptions about Probability. The Australian
Mathematics Teacher. 54 (1), 17-20.
Carpenter, T., Corbitt, M., Kepner, H., Lindquist, M., & Reys, R. (1981). What are the
chances of your students knowing probability?. The Mathematics Teacher, 342344.
Jones, G. (1979). A case for probability. The Arithmetic Teacher, 26(6), 37-57.

Linchevski, L., & Kutscher, B. (1998). Tell me with whom you're learning, and I'll tell you
how much you've learned: Mixed-ability versus same-ability grouping in
mathematics. Journal for Research in Mathematics Education, 533-554.
New Zealand Ministry of Education. (2010). Greedy Pig. Retrieved from
http://www.nzmaths.co.nz/resource/greedy-pig-0
New Zealand Ministry of Education. (2010). Card Sharp. Retrieved from
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/card-sharp
Peard, R. (1996). Problems with probability. In P. C. Clarkson (Ed.), Technology in
mathematics education (Proceedings of the 19th annual conference of the
Mathematics Education Research Group of Australasia, vol 1, pp.437-444).
Melbourne: MERGA.
Random.org. (2015). Playing card shuffler. Retrieved from
https://www.random.org/playing-cards/
Reys, R. E., Lindquist, L. M., Lambdin, D. V., Smith, N. L., Rogers, A., Falle, J., Frid, S.,
& Bennett, S. (2012). Helping children learn mathematics (1st Australian ed.).
Milton, Australia: John Wiley & Sons.
Sullivan, P. (1997). Mixed ability mathematics teaching: characteristics of suitable tasks.
Learning Matters, 2(3), 20-23.
Towler, L., & Broadfoot, P. (1992). Selfassessment in the primary school. Educational
Review, 44(2), 137-151.
Van Zundert, M., Sluijsmans, D., & Van Merrinboer, J. (2010). Effective peer
assessment processes: Research findings and future directions. Learning and
Instruction, 20(4), 270-279.

MATHEMATICS UNIT PLANNER

Topic: Probability
Key mathematical understandings

The likelihood of outcomes of events can be

expressed in words as well as fractions,
decimals and percentages.

Probability values range between 0 and 1

and impossible to certain.

Observed frequencies can differ from

expected frequencies of an experiment.

Year Level: 6
Key AusVELS Focus / Standard
Content strand(s):
Number and Algebra
Sub-strand(s):

Term:

Week: 5

Measurement and Geometry

Date: 3/11/15
Statistics and Probability

Level descriptions:
Describe probabilities using fractions, decimals and percentages
Conduct chance experiments with both small and large numbers of trials using appropriate digital technologies
Compare observed frequencies across experiments with expected frequencies

Proficiency strand(s):

Understanding

Fluency

Problem Solving

Reasoning

Understanding: Make connections between probability values expressed as fractions, decimals and percentages.
Reasoning: Test conjectures of theoretical probability with experimental outcomes.

Key skills to develop and practise

Key equipment / resources:

order probability values from 0 to 1 and

impossible to certain

Interactive Whiteboard

Marbles

test predicted probabilities through experimental

trials

Deck of cards x15

justify choice of chance language and values

Dice

make choices throughout probability games

Key vocabulary
probability: the likelihood of an event happening
likely
unlikely
possible
probable
certain
impossible
equal: the same in quantity, size, degree or value
dependant events: two events are dependent if the
outcome or occurrence of the first affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second so that the
probability is changed
independent events: independent events are not
affected by previous events
trial: particular performance of a random
experiment
experiment: total of all trials of performance of an
event
sample space: the set of possible outcomes of an
experiment
event

Key probing questions

Possible misconceptions
assumed fairness (Aspinwall & Shaw, 2000).
equi-probability bias (Peard, 1996).
intuitive probability (Aspinwall & Shaw, 2000).
sample size (Aspinwall & Tarr, 2002).
awareness misconception (Barnes, 2008).
dependant and independent events (Carpenter
Corbitt, Kepner, Lindquist, & Reys, 1981).

Learning
strategies/ skills

Analysing
Checking
Classifying
Co-operating
Considering options
Designing
Elaborating

MATHEMATICAL
F OCUS
(what you want the children
to come to understand as a
result of this lesson short,
succinct statement)

Session 1

The likelihood
of outcomes of

Estimating
Explaining
Generalising
Hypothesising
Inferring
Interpreting
Justifying

TUNING IN
(WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)
(a short, sharp task relating to the
focus of the lesson; sets the scene/
context for what students do in the
independent aspect. e.g., It may be a
problem posed, spider diagram, an
open-ended question, game, or
reading a story)

Brainstorm with students

the word probability.
Prompt students to think
about ideas related to this.

Links to other contexts

Why do you think that?

How do you know?
Can you explain your thinking to me?
What if
How else could you express this?

Listening
Locating information
Making choices
Note taking
Observing
Ordering events
Organising

INVESTIGATIONS
SESSION
(INDEPENDENT LEARNING)
(extended opportunity for students to
work in pairs, small groups or
individually. Time for teacher to probe
childrens thinking or work with a small
group for part of the time and to also
conduct roving conferences)

Provide students with 3

small squares of paper.
Invite students to record
three different probability

frequency: the number of times an item occurs in a

collection
expected frequency: the number of occasions on
which an event may be presumed to occur on
average in a given number of trials
observed frequency: the number of occasions on
which an event actually occurred in a given number
of trials
theoretical probability: the likeliness of an event
happening based on all the possible outcomes

Performing
Persuading
Planning
Predicting
Presenting
Providing feedback
Questioning

Reading
Recognising bias
Reflecting
Reporting
Responding
Restating
Revising

REFLECTION & MAKING

CONNECTIONS
SESSION
(WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)
(focused teacher questions and
summary to draw out the mathematics
and assist children to make links. NB.
This may occur at particular points
during a lesson. Use of spotlight,
strategy, gallery walk, etc.)

Invite the groups to share

their ordered string with the
class one group at a time.
Provide time for the

Links to everyday life events probability of events

occurring

Seeing patterns
Selecting information
Self-assessing
Sharing ideas
Summarising
Synthesising

ADAPTATIONS
- Enabling prompt
(to allow those experiencing difficulty to
engage in active experiences related to
the initial goal task)
- Extending prompt
(questions that extend students
thinking on the initial task)

Enabling prompt
Students struggling to
come up with probability
words, fractions, decimals

Testing
Viewing
Visually representing
Working independently
Working to a timetable

ASSESSMENT
STRATEGIES
(should relate to objective. Includes
what the teacher will listen for,
observe, note or analyse; what
evidence of learning will be collected
and what criteria will be used to
analyse the evidence)

Teacher to rove and record

anecdotal notes in form of
criteria checklist (see
Appendix 1).

events can be
expressed in
words as well
as fractions,
decimals and
percentages.

Probability
values range
between 0 and
1 and
impossible to
certain

Session 2

Experiments
have expected
frequencies.

Invite students to go
beyond words and
brainstorm fractions,
decimals and percentages.
Probing questions:
What other things
come to mind when we
talk about probability?
Ive noticed that were
using a lot of words
that are coming to
mind. Are there other
ways we can express
probability of events?
Somebody said 50-50
chance, how else do
you think we could say
this? Could we write it
as a percentage? A
decimal?

Provide students with a list

of situations on the IWB.
Flipping a coin and landing
on heads.
Spinning a four-coloured
spinner and landing on
yellow.
Rolling a six-sided dice
and getting a five.

words, fractions, decimals

or percentages on these
squares of paper.

viewing group to ask 2-3

questions about why they
have placed squares
where they have.

Split the class into two

groups, each provided with
a piece of string.
Assign students the task of
combining their squares of
paper and ordering them
along the piece of string.
Explain to students that
they must be able to justify
why they have ordered
their squares in the way
they have.

Teacher to lead discussion,

with probing questions
such as:
Why did you place
50% lower than most
likely?
What about if I gave
you a card that says
2/3 on it? Where would
you place that?
Is there anybody who
thinks that anything on
here could perhaps be
moved somewhere
else? Do we all
agree/disagree?
From what you have
heard us all say, are
you as a group happy
with where you have
placed everything?
Why/why not?

Ensure teacher is roving

the room, ensuring
students are on track and
also using probing
questions such as:
I see youve placed
0.4 further along the
number line than 20%.
Why have you done
this?
There seems to be
some discussion here
about whether maybe
or perhaps should be
further along the line.
What is your reasoning
for each?
Provide students with a
bag each containing 10 red
marbles, 7 blue marbles, 5
green marbles and 8
yellow marbles.
Invite students to
individually investigate and
record the expected
probability of pulling out
each of the coloured

Invite students to share

and compare their findings
with their table group. Ask
students to, in their table
groups, record the order of
each colours probability
from least to most likely.
Conduct a class discussion
surrounding these findings,
with one representative

Provide already made

squares of paper with more
simple words on them
rather than coming up with
them on their own.

Teacher to use information

to inform future planning.

Students struggling to
place their words on the
probability line Allow
students to place their
words in order on their own
individual line as a first
starting point. Teacher
assistance required in
helping guide them from
transferring their individual
line to class line.
Extending prompt
Instruct students to create
their squares with linked
words, fractions, decimals
and percentages rather
than the option of any eg.
possibly, 25%, 0.25,

Enabling prompt
Provide students
with a separate
bag with more
simple probability
out of 10 with 4 red
marbles, 2 blue
marbles, 3 green
marbles and 1

Teacher to rove and record

anecdotal notes in form of
criteria checklist (see
Appendix 2).
Teacher to use information
to inform future planning.

Ask students what they

think the probability of each
of these outcomes would
be.
Explain to students that
these are called expected
frequencies/expected
probabilities.
Probing questions:
Can we make an
assumption with these
events of what we
think will be the
likelihood of it
occurring?
Why do you think
these are called
expected
probabilities?

Session 3

Observed
frequencies
can differ from
expected
frequencies of
an experiment.

Place the website

https://www.random.org/pla
ying-cards/ up on the
interactive whiteboard. Ask
students to think about why
you might have this
website up and be drawing
cards at random.
Invite students to think
about the idea of
experiments and
conducting trials regarding
probability of an event.
Explain to students that in
pairs, they are going to
conduct their own

marbles from the bag.

Teacher to rove around the
room, asking probing
questions such as:
How many marbles
are there altogether?
What will the
probability be out of?
I can see you have
written that it is out of
30. Why did you say
this?
So you have written
that the probability of
the green marbles is 5
out of 30? I wonder if
you can record this
another way?
What do you expect
the probability would
be of getting a red
marble? Why?

from each group sharing

their outcomes.

yellow marble.

Probing questions:
Was this end result a
mutual agreement?
Did anybody
disagree?
Did anybody have a
different answer but
their thinking was
changed when
discussing with the
group?
Why do you say that
there is a 1/3 chance
of pulling out a red
marble?
Which colour was
most/least likely to be
pulled out of the bag?
Were any of the
colours equally likely to
be pulled out?
Why/why not?
Why do we refer to
this as expected
frequencies?

Extending prompt
Ask students to
record the
probability in
multiple ways. eg.
fraction/decimal/
percentage

Provide each pair with a

deck of cards.

Students to come back to

the floor with their results.

Students to conduct their

chance experiment based
upon whichever attribute
they choose.

Conduct a Think, Pair,

Share with another pair to
compare and discus their
findings.

Teacher to rove around the

room and push students
thinking.

Provide the opportunity for

students to share what
their experiment was, what
their expected outcome
was and what their results
were with the class.

Enabling prompt
Provide students with
only half the cards (all
red/black only) so that
the probability is
working with smaller
values and removes
extra attributes.

Probing questions:
I notice you have
written that the
probability is 26/52. Is
there another way you

Probing questions:
I am noticing that a lot

Extending prompt
Get students thinking
about what would
happen if the cards
were not placed back
in the deck and were
instead removed.
Would the probability

Teacher to rove and record

anecdotal notes in form of
criteria checklist (see
Appendix 3).
Teacher to use information
to inform future planning.

experiment using a deck of

cards, based on an
attribute of the cards.
Brainstorm with students
what attribute they could
investigate the probability
of.
Inform students that it can
be as broad or as specific
as they would like. For
example, the likelihood of
drawing a spade or the
likelihood of drawing a 9 of
hearts.

Probing questions:
What would your
probability be out of?
How many cards are
there in a deck of
cards?
How many red/black
cards are there?
How many of each
suit are there?

Inform students that they

are to conduct 20 trials of
the experiment and record
their results.

Session 4

Observed
frequencies
can differ from
expected
frequencies of
an experiment.

Explain to students that we

are going to play a class
game of Greedy Pig.
http://www.nzmaths.co.nz/r
esource/greedy-pig-0
Explain the rules of the
game to students A 10
sided die is rolled and the
result is recorded by the
player each time. You keep

could write this? Could

you use words,
decimals,
percentages?
I see that you said the
probability to draw a
black card is 50%.
However, you have
conducted 8 trials now
and youre yet to get
one black card. I
wonder why that is?
Do you think the
outcomes always
reflect the expected
outcomes?
When you draw a
card, youre placing it
back in the deck. What
do you think would
happen if you did not
replace the card each
time? Would the
number of cards in the
deck stay the same?
Would the probability
stay the same or
change?

Provide students time to

play the game with a
partner.

of people are stating

that their probability is
around 26/52. Can you
think of another
fraction this could
simplify to? Could we
express it in other
ways?
What would we say
the probability of that
was if we put it into
words? Maybe?
Likely?
Many of these
experiments did not
turn out exactly the
way that you all
expected them to. Why
do you think that is?
Do you think that just
because we expect the
frequency to be
something, it always
will turn out that way?
What about if we
played more trials than
20? Do you think we
might have gotten
closer to our expected
probability?
What is the difference
between expected
probability and
observed probability?

Teacher to rove the room

and provide support where
needed.

Conduct a class discussion

surrounding the games just
played in pairs.
Prompt students to think
about the expected
probabilities involved and
the observed outcomes.

Probing questions:
Does the expected
probability of rolling a 1

Probing questions:
Did you use a strategy
that you thought was

remain the same?

Would observed
frequencies still differ
from expected
frequencies?

Enabling prompt
Students use a 6 sided
dice to narrow down
the options and
simplify the probability.
Extending prompt Students use a 20
sided dice to increase
the options and

Students to complete Peer

Assessment on their
partner for the session
(See Appendix 4).
Teacher to collect and use
information to inform future
planning.

rolling until you decide not

to be a greedy pig or until
a 1 is rolled. If you do not
choose to stop rolling and
a 1 is rolled, your overall
score for the round is 0. If
you choose to stop rolling
before a 1 is rolled, your
score for the round is the
sum of all the numbers
rolled before you stopped.
There are 10 rolls in a
round, and the player with
the highest score wins.
Conduct whole class game
with students to familiarise
themselves and answer
any questions/concerns
before playing in pairs.

increase as the
number of rolls
increases? Why/why
not?
Do you have a
strategy that you are
using to ensure you
win the game? Can
you explain your
thinking to me?
I notice that each time
after 5 turns, you are
stopping your turns.
What is your thinking
behind this?

successful and would

like to share?
Is it possible to have a
successful strategy to
allow you to win the
game each time?
What part did
probability play in
this?
Were your observed
outcomes the same as
your expected
outcomes? Why/why
not?

probability.

Probing questions:
What is the expected
probability of rolling a
1?
What is the expected
probability of rolling a
number larger than 1?
Would you do
anything differently in
the next round?
Session 5

Observed
frequencies
can differ from
expected
frequencies of
an experiment

Put poster up on IWB for

students as a prompt to
begin their chance
experiment (see Appendix
5)
Explain to students that
they are going to respond
to this advertisement and
create their own chance
experiment. Explain that
there are no limitations
except the guidelines listed
on the poster.

Provide time for the

students to both create and
trial their chance
experiments.
Teacher to rove and check
that students are on track
with their creations.
Probing questions:
How did you work out
that these are the
expected outcomes?
How many trials are

Allow students to go on a
gallery walk and read
about some of their
classmates chance
experiment creations.
Instruct students to be
paying particular attention
to the expected and
observed outcomes section
of each experiment.
Gather students to the floor
for a class discussion. Use
probing questions to guide

Enabling prompt
Provide students
with a specific type
of experiment to
conduct, however,
still allowing the
choice within that
experiment eg.
give them deck of
cards as a starting
point

Students to complete Self

Assessment based on the
checklist (See Appendix 6).
Teacher to collect and use
information to inform future
planning.

Probing questions:
What are the
requirements for your
chance experiment?
What does it mean by
measureable? Can I
choose to do a chance
experiment about the
likelihood of Richmond
winning the grand
final? Is that
measureable to me
right now?
What does it mean by
trials?
Can you remind me
what the terms
expected and
observed outcomes
mean?

you going to complete?

Will this be
representative enough
for your results?
What materials are
you going to need for
your experiment?
Is the likelihood for all
outcomes equal or do
they differ?

discussion as a whole.
Probing questions:
Were there any
experiments you saw
that really stood out to
you? Why?
Were the expected
outcomes different or
the same as the
observed outcomes
from what you saw?
What did you have to
take into consideration
when creating your
chance experiment?

Extending prompt
Extend the
minimum number
of trials to 50
How will this affect
your results? Will
they become more
representative?

Appendix 1
Session 1 Assessment Criteria (Checklist)
Criteria

Achievement Level

Notes

Student able to create three squares with

decimal/percentage/fraction/word probability value
Student uses 2 or more different types of
probability values eg. 1 decimal, 2 fractions
Student correctly places values on probability line
Student coherently justifies placing on probability
line

0 = not achieved, 1 = partly achieved, 2=satisfactorily achieved, 3=exceeds expectations

Appendix 2
Session 2 Assessment Criteria (Checklist)
Criteria

Achievement Level

Notes

Student able to record expected frequencies of

choosing each coloured marble
Student coherently justifies frequencies recorded
Student explains reason for term expected
frequencies
0 = not achieved, 1 = partly achieved, 2=satisfactorily achieved, 3=exceeds expectations

Appendix 3
Session 3 Assessment Criteria (Checklist)
Criteria

Achievement Level

Notes

Student correctly identifies expected frequencies

Student systematically records observed
frequencies
Student able to explain difference between
expected and observed frequencies
Student able to identify the possibility of results
differing from expected frequencies
0 = not achieved, 1 = partly achieved, 2=satisfactorily achieved, 3=exceeds expectations

Appendix 4
Session 4 Peer Assessment

My partner

could identify the possibility of rolling a one

could identify the possibility of rolling a number larger than one
used a strategy throughout the game
could clearly explain their strategy to me
could explain why/why not the observed outcomes differed from the expected probability

My partners areas of strength are

1. ______________________________________________________________
2. ______________________________________________________________
My partners areas to improve on are
1. ______________________________________________________________
2. ______________________________________________________________

Appendix 5
Session 5 Tuning In Activity

Appendix 6
Session 5 Self Assessment

In my chance experiment, I have.

chosen an experiment that is measureable

clearly explained the chance experiment in detail
listed the expected probability of each possible outcome
trialled it with a minimum of 20 trials
recorded the observed outcomes

I am able to

explain the difference between expected and observed probabilities

define the term trials
justify what I worked out for expected outcomes
explain my observed outcomes
reflect upon the considerations I made when creating my chance experiment

Next time, I would..

________________________________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________