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Unit title:
Exploring Probability
Content maths area:
Strand: Statistics and Probability
Sub-Strand: Chance:
Level Descriptors:
Identify practical activities and everyday events that involve chance. Describe outcomes
as likely or unlikely and identify some events as certain or impossible (ACMSP047)
Elaboration: classifying a list of everyday events according to how likely they are to
happen, using the language of chance, and explaining reasoning
(Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority, 2012).
Grade/year level:
Grade 2
Learning Focus (ideas extrapolated from AusVELS):
Exploring Probability explores the content strand of statistics and probability focusing
in on the sub-strand of chance. This mathematical unit will show great attention to the
proficiency strands of understanding and reasoning aiming to provide ample
opportunities for students to develop their ability to explain and justify their thinking and
increase their understanding of likelihood as a continuum and basis for predictions.
Rationale:
Probability is difficult topic for students to grasp (Barnes, 1998), however it is a
beneficial mathematical concept to explore as students will be constantly encountering
aspects of probability in everyday life without recognition of its mathematical
component (Burgree, 1999). The ability to understand probability and possess
probabilistic reasoning is an important asset in the real world as many daily tasks
incorporate chance, such as weather, sport, gambling and many others (Moritz &
Watson, 2000). Due to high interactions with probability embedded games, students
often begin to develop a range of ideas about the likelihood of events that can be
labelled as Subjective Probability (Nisbet, 2011), there early exposure to this topic can
aid in avoiding common misconceptions and build strong foundations of chance.
Overview of assessment:
During this unit of work both formative and summative assessment will be utilized.
During the first 4 sessions formative assessment will take place. Observational
assessment will be the assessment of choice with the teaching looking for students
expressing understandings of the key mathematical ideas for that particular lesson. The
teacher is encouraged to take notes of observations, especially of students moving
beyond the expected level or falling below standard. These notes can be used to inform
future lessons and reporting (Clarke, 1994). During this topic the teacher will also take
detailed observations of 3 preselected students (refer to appendix 1) each lesson, and
develop an action that can be implemented in the next session to aid in either enabling
or extending that students knowledge. Observational assessment in mathematics is
praised as an effective form of assessment as it allows the teacher to assess
mathematical content, processes and disposition whilst still providing attention and
support to all students (Clarke, 1994). Teachers spend much of their time in a maths
lesson wondering the class observing students behavior, so it is the perfect way to
perform assessment without interfering (Clarke, 1994).
The topic will be concluded in session 5 with a summative assessment. Students will
hand in their end products as an artifact expressing their knowledge about probability.
This piece, along with observational notes made throughout the unit, will be used for
reporting.
References:
Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority. (2012). Mathematics scope
and sequence: foundation to year 6. Retrieved September 22, 2015, from
http:// www.australiancurriculum.edu.au/mathematics/curriculum/f-10?layout=1
Clarke, D. (1994). Valuing what we see. The Mathematics Teacher, 87(7), 542-545.
Barnes, M. (1998). Dealing with misconceptions about probability. Australian
Mathematics Teacher, 54(1), 17-20.
Hawera, N. & Taylor, M. (2015). Calculating for probability: He koretake te rima (five is
useless) In M. Marshman, V. Geiger, & A. Bennison (Eds.). Mathematics
education in the margins (Proceedings of the 38th annual conference of the
Mathematics Education Research Group of Australasia, pp. 293-300). Sunshine
Coast: MERGA.
Jones, G., Langrall, C., Thornton, C., & Mogil, T. (1997). Framework for assessing and
nurturing young childrens thinking in probability. Educational Studies in
Mathematics, 32(2), 101-125.
Lidster, S., Watson, J., Collins, K., & Pereira-Mendoza, L. (1996). The relationship of the
concept of fair to the construction of probabilistic understanding In P. C. Clarkson
(Ed.), Technology in mathematics education (Proceedings of the 19th annual
conference of the Mathematics Education Research Group of Australasia, pp.
352-359). Melbourne: MERGA.
Moritz, J., & Watson, J. (2000). Reasoning and expressing probability in students
judgements of coin tossing In J. Bana & A. Chapman (Eds.), Mathematics
education beyond 2000 (Proceedings of the 23rd annual conference of the
Mathematics Education Research Group of Australasia, Fremantle, pp. 448 455). Sydney: MERGA.
2(3), 20-23.
Year Level: 2
Term: 4
Week: 5
Date:
02. 11. 15 -
06. 11. 15
Key mathematical
Key AusVELS Focus / Standard (taken directly from AusVELS
understandings
documents):
(2-4 understandings only; Content strand(s): Number and Algebra
Measurement and
written as statements
Geometry
Statistics and Probability
believed to be true about Sub-strand(s): Chance
the mathematical idea/
topic):
Level descriptions:
Students can accurately Identify practical activities and everyday events that involve chance.
Describe outcomes as likely or unlikely and identify some events
use a wide range of
as certain or impossible (ACMSP047)
probabilistic vocabulary
to accurately describe
Elaboration: classifying a list of everyday events according to how
the likelihood of events
likely they are to happen, using the language of chance, and
Students can accurately
explaining reasoning
draw connections
between probability and
Proficiency strand(s):
Understanding
real life events
Fluency
Problem Solving
Reasoning
Students demonstrate
an understanding of the
- Students demonstrate and provide evidence of understanding through
terms fair and unfair.
They are able to provide their ability to explain the likelihood of an event using accurate
reasoning and evidence mathematical vocabulary and make accurate predictions about possible
outcomes.
about the
characteristics
- Students can explain and justify their mathematical thinking, and can
concerning both forms
consider and evaluate the ideas proposed by others.
of events.
experiences. Show an
understanding of how
probability impacts daily
tasks. Skill will be explored in
session two and evaluated
through students abilities to
recall events with different
likelihoods.
(Lidster, 1996)
- Randomness
Highlighted as most difficult
concept to understand in
probability. Students can be
confused when experimental
results do not mirror theoretical
results due to being unaware of
variability (Lidster, 1996)
- Sample size
Students struggle to understand
that the larger the sample the
more likely experimental result
will reflect theoretical
expectations. Students will often
exhibit a representative
heuristic belief that small date
should always closely correlate
with parent population (Moritz &
Watson, 2000)
Lea
rni Analysing Estimating
Listening
ng Checking Explaining
Locating
str Classifying Generalising information
ate
CoHypothesisin
Making
gie operating
g
choices
s/ Considering Inferring
Note taking
skil options
Interpreting
Observing
ls Designing Justifying
Ordering
Elaborating
events
Organising
Performing
Reading
Seeing
Testing
Persuading Recognising
patterns
Viewing
Planning
bias
Selecting
Visually
Predicting Reflecting
information representing
Presenting Reporting
SelfWorking
Providing Responding assessing independentl
feedback
Restating
Sharing
y
Questioning Revising
ideas
Working to a
Summarising timetable
Synthesising
ADAPTATIONS ASSESSMENT
STRATEGIES
- Enabling
prompt
(should relate to
(to allow those
objective.
experiencing
Includes what
difficulty to
the teacher will
engage in active
listen for,
experiences observe, note or
related to the
analyse; what
initial goal task)
evidence of
- Extending
learning will be
prompt
collected and
(questions that what criteria will
extend students
be used to
thinking on the
analyse the
initial task)
evidence)
Observe
students to
assess how well
they:
- demonstrate
knowledge of
words
- Ability to order
words from
certain to
impossible
- Can verbally
reason why a
word is placed
in a certain
position on the
probability
continuum
During this unit
of work 3
students will be
individually
targeted each
lesson for close
evaluation. Refer
to Appendix to
view checklist.
10
11
Dice Game
Key
Knowledge:
-Gather students on
the floor in a large
circle.
- Pass out the
individual
whiteboards and
markers (one per
student)
FOCUS
QUESTIONS (for
class reflection
and during
- In pairs students will independent
working time)
participate in a
Explain the
likely hood
of an event
occurring
within a
chance
experiment
using
appropriate
probabilistic
language
After 2 or 3 rounds
discuss with
students why they
chose particular
numbers. Identify
that all numbers
have an even
chance of being
rolled because they
appear on the dice
one time each.
ENABLING
Observe
PROMPT:
students to
(For students
assess how well
struggling
they:
explain why one
outcome is more - explain the
chance experiment
likely than
likelihood that
using unfair coloured
another)
an event will
dice.
- How did you
The game involves
- How many
occur
make your
students taking turns predictions?
sides are there
rolling the dice and
What information on a dice?
- explain the
recording the colour
did you use to
- How many
relationship
that is landed on.
sides are
between the
Once one colour has help you?
been rolled 10 times
white?
dice and the
- How do you
the game is over.
How
many
likely outcome
know if one event
In their mathematic
sides
are
of the game
books, students need is more likely
black?
(e.g., white
to first make a
than the other?
prediction about
- Which is the
will likely win
which colour is most - What other
bigger number? because most
likely to be rolled. A
words could you - What does that of the dice is
table for recording
mean?
white;
results also needs to use to describe
the likelihood of
be constructed.
During explanation of landing on black/ EXTENDING
white?
the games rules,
PROMPT:
teacher needs to
(For students
draw an example
capable of
table on the white
board for students to CONCLUSION OF extending
Play the game
follow.
beyond the task)
LESSON
again, except this - Students should aim
time use the large
to complete the game
classroom dice that two times and then Students return to - Can you record
has been covered
record a concluding the floor with their the likelihood of
with coloured paper statement about the results from their
events using
(4 sides white, 2
likely hood of
experiments. Ask
numbers? If
sides black).
possible outcomes a select few
there are 6
using vocabulary
students to share
sides
on
a
dice
After 2-3 rounds
from their
their predictions,
discuss which
continuums created results and
and 4 side are
colour is more likely in session 1.
white what is
conclusions.
Pay
to be rolled and why
the likelihood of
close attention to
TEACHER GROUP
landing on
choice
of
** During this class
Blue group will
vocabulary and
white? Can you
discussion pay close complete the first
attention to
round together on the refine define
write a
probabilistic language floor under teacher
words for
description of
used by the students supervision. Teacher consolidation.
the outcome
and be sure to
should discuss
using that
actively demonstrate predictions with the
key language
students and talk
fraction you just
explored in the
through final findings.
created?
previous 2 sessions. Students can take in
turns rolling the dice
QUESTIONS TO
with everyone
PROMPT
recording each result.
DISCUSSION:
After round one
- Why did you make students can play the
that prediction?
next game in partners.
- If the colours on the
dice were different, QUESTIONS TO
would your
PROMPT
prediction change? DISCUSSION:
- Can you use
- can you describe the
different vocabulary likelihood of landing
to describe the
on black?
same likelihood?
- Which colour is more
(refer to continuum) likely? How do you
know?
Exploration
using dice
inspired
from tutorial
10 and
Burgree,
(1999)
research on
the
positives of
games to
learn
probability.
describe
probability
using
appropriate
language (e.g.,
impossible,
likely, unlikely,
equally likely,
good/poor
chance).
3 different
students from
past sessions
will be
individually
evaluated
using
evaluation
sheet. During
this lesson the
past 3 targeted
students
should be
revisited and
an action plan
should be
implemented
for assistance.
12
QUESTIONS TO
PROMPT
DISCUSSION:
- How could you
change your
spinner to make it
fair?
- How could you
change your
spinner to make it
unfair?
- Why have you
made that
prediction?
- How did you
decide which
colour was more
likely to be landed
on?
13
language is a key
probability on the
factor to this task. whiteboard
Make sure teacher recording all new
models an extensive knowledge
variety of vocabulary students have
in discussion
learnt. Use focus
questions to evoke
QUESTIONS TO
thought and
PROMPT
prompt discussion.
DISCUSSION:
- Whats the
likelihood on
landing on the
green section of
your spinner?
- How do you know
that you have
made a fair
spinner?
- How do you know
that you have
made an unfair
spinner?
What other
sentences can
you formulate
about the
probability of
landing on a
certain colour?
Can you make
a statement for
each colour on
your wheel.
14
Name
Difficulty or
extended skill
Identified
Plan of Action
Date action
implemented and
outcome
15
possible
very likely
unlikely
certain
impossible
likely
might happen
16
Tomorrow is Friday.
Christmas is in December.
I will be taller than my Dad
when I'm older.
Im going to turn into a dog.
We are going to Mars for our school
excursion tomorrow.
I will be a teacher when Im older.
I will go to university when Im older.
18