Center for Enrollment Research, Policy, and Practice

Leadership in Enrollment Management Certificate Program

Case Study: Retention at an Urban Public University

You are an enrollment manager at a large public research university in the Southwest. Although most of the
30,000 undergraduate students are from within the state, the university has a strong national and international
reputation. The majority of the students are between 18 and 24, with most first-year students living on campus
before moving into apartments and houses around the campus. About 20 percent of students are part-time
students, most of who commute. 65 percent of the students are Caucasian, 15 percent are Latino/Hispanic, 7
percent are African American, 5 percent Asian American or Pacific Islander, 3 percent Native American, and the
remainder indicated other. The SAT scores are average. A wide range of majors is available, along with many
services, student organizations, and cultural activities.
Although a flagship institution in the state, the institutional leadership is concerned about greater competition
for new students and the loss of students to attrition. The president has formed this committee of faculty and
staff to consider ways to address student retention at your institution. The president also wants to more
information on the extent to which students leave the university, transfer elsewhere and eventually complete
their degree. She has read recent works of Adelman and others and wants a better sense of how the university
plays a role in helping students to persist anywhere and eventually graduate. As part of the committee and the
enrollment manager, you have been asked to develop a strategy to maximize retention but also to look at what
happens to students who leave the university. For example, how many enroll elsewhere and eventually
graduate?
As the enrollment manager and presumably chair of the recently formed retention committee, I would focus our
efforts on the indicators of persistence outlined in the College Persistence Indicators Research Review
(Krivoshey, 2014). This review of the literature provides a comprehensive framework to assess our current
level of performance in retaining students and facilitating degree completion at our institution rather than
tracking student persistence elsewhere. Therefore, I would first have to convince the President that our role in
degree completion is enrolling transfer students from community colleges and four-year institutions rather than
tracking outcomes of those who leave the university. By improving our own retention and graduation rates,
especially among incoming transfer students, the institution can make a stronger case to the public that we are
serving the needs of the region and state. Alternatively, we would be spending resources on tracking students
who are no longer at our institution rather than using those resources to help students complete their degree at
the university.
The committee would begin by analyzing the background of students enrolled at the institution beyond the
demographics and average SAT scores mentioned above. The committee would first review incoming SAT
scores as those with high SAT scores are much more likely to graduate from college in four years than students
with low SAT scores (Ryan, 2004). Second, the university must understand how high school transcripts are
evaluated for admission since 95% of students who completed a bachelors degree also had high school
transcripts that consisted of an intense high school curriculum as identified by Adelman (2006). Beyond SAT
scores and the high school curriculum, the university should also consider scores on advanced placement exams
as those who earn less than a three on AP exams are less likely to persist (ACT, 2009; Conley, 2007).
Similar to students scoring high on the SAT, those who earn better than a C-average in high school are more
likely to graduate college in four years (Ryan, 2004). Moreover, those who participate in dual-enrolment
programs are more likely to persist in college than similar students who do not given the exposure of high
school students to the skills needed to be successful in college (DAmico et al., 2010). Given these specific
indicators of persistence and other institutional attributes such as its diversity (e.g., socioeconomic, racial and
ethnic, or geographic), tuition price and net price, residential capacity, financial assets per full-time student,
percent full-time versus part-time students, significant intercorrelations exist insofar as retention and completion
David J. Lang, PhD
April 24, 2016

Center for Enrollment Research, Policy, and Practice

Leadership in Enrollment Management Certificate Program

Case Study: Retention at an Urban Public University

rates can be statistically predicted with greater accuracy than the retention committee assumes (Kalsbeek,
2013). Since more than three-fourths of the variance in institutional graduation rates can be accounted for by
the average ACT or SAT score of the freshman class, the retention committee could predict the overall six-year
graduation rate of an incoming freshman class by just using the overall class average SAT score (Kalsbeek
2008; Zucker 2011). Consequently, the committee would be advised to conduct such analyses before
considering any adjustments to admission practices and/or intervention strategies to increase retention.
Although, there are there additional student characteristics that might differentiate the persistence of subpopulations as those who enroll part-time are less likely to persist (Adelman, 2006). Moreover, students who
are first-generation are at greater risk of not persisting in college (Dowd & Coury, 2006; Sibulkin & Butler,
2005; Yakaboski, 2010). The university should also identify sub-populations who take remedial, non-credit
bearing courses in their first year given the increased risk for dropping out of college associated with enrolling
in these types of courses (Conley, 2007; Adelman, 1999). Another differentiator between sub-populations
involves student participation in college affiliated extracurricular activities as those who do not interact with
peer groups are less likely to be retained (Berger & Milem, 1999; Kuh et al., 2008; Pascarella & Terenzini,
1980; Titus, 2004). Even though participation in extracurricular activities is an indicator of persistence, it may
be difficult for the university to measure such activity as well other potential indicators of persistence (e.g.,
students level of expectation and having strong performance goals) in an efficient manner to the extent that
resources could be devoted to other areas.
The university can expect to find lower retention rates among students who fall into certain performance
categories. Similar to high school average, students who maintain a C-average or lower do not persist to the
extent that those with higher college GPAs while those who earn less than 20 credits in their first year of college
also have a reduced likelihood of graduating (Adelman, 1999, 2006). However, students who earn four or more
credits over the summer have an increased probability of graduating (Adelman, 2006). Other behaviors that
impact students likelihood of earning a degree include stopping out for more than one semester and
withdrawing from or repeating multiple courses (Adelman, 1999, 2006). The university may also try to identify
the population of students who are single-parents and those who work more than 20 hours per week as both
characteristics are associated with a greater risk of not persisting in college (Raley & Kuo, 2011).
The committee should also focus on characteristics that have been identified with increasing retention despite
the difficulty in measuring such indicators. For example, students who have more interactions with faculty in a
formal and informal environment are more likely to persist (Berger & Milem 1999; Pascarella & Terenzini,
1980; Tinto, 1975, 1997). Another indicator that increases retention that may be difficult to measure is students
who find their classroom instruction clear and effective according to their survey responses are more likely to
persist (Pascarella, Seifert, & Whitt, 2008). As for university characteristics that positively impact retention, the
amount of financial resources invested in academic programs can improve graduation rates (Ryan, 2004).
According to the research on institutional indicators, the committee could suggest that the university further
incorporate ladder faculty into freshmen seminars and academic advisement on campus to increase the amount
of interactions between students and faculty. Likewise, additional resources for students and faculty to enhance
teaching and learning on campus would also increase graduation rates while further funding for curriculum
development, libraries, and instructional technologies can be associated with increasing retention.
As for the students who leave the university, it would be my intent to first focus our limited resources on
improving our own graduation rates that are within the campus control before tracking non-persisters through
the national clearinghouse. Students who complete a two-year degree at a community college before
transferring to a four-year college are more likely to complete a college degree than those who start at a fourDavid J. Lang, PhD
April 24, 2016

Center for Enrollment Research, Policy, and Practice

Leadership in Enrollment Management Certificate Program

Case Study: Retention at an Urban Public University

year institution (Adelman, 2006; Cejda & Kaylor, 2001; Hoachlander, Sikora, & Horn, 2003). Consequently,
the university would be better suited to make the case to campus stakeholders and the public if more transfer
students coming from the community college system earn their degree at our institution. There is much more
potential to make the case of serving the public by focusing on students who transfer to our campus than
tracking those who leave, especially since more than one transfer is negatively associated with the predictive
probability that a student will graduate (Adelman, 2006).
References
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Adelman, C. (2006). The toolbox revisited: Paths to degree completion from high school through college.
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David J. Lang, PhD

April 24, 2016

Center for Enrollment Research, Policy, and Practice

Leadership in Enrollment Management Certificate Program

Case Study: Retention at an Urban Public University

Kuh, G. D., Cruce, T. M., Shoup, R., Kinzie, J., & Gonyea, R. M. (2008). Unmasking the effects of student
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David J. Lang, PhD

April 24, 2016