3007ENV Climate Change Adaption 2014

Assignment Adaption Case Study (New

England N.S.W.)
Joseph Allan Gagie 2865630
Word count 1 091

The New England region in north-eastern NSW is home to contrasting

environments and a large number of people. The primary industry in the
area in agriculture and rising temperatures and drier conditions will have
negative impacts on the sector. Both government and private sectors
must work together in financing research, implantation of said research
and adaptions at the farm lever in order to keep agriculture prosperous in
the New England Region.
The New England region is located in north-eastern New South Wales. The
region comprises of a temperate climate and includes mountain ranges,
wetlands and semi-arid zones (Department of Environment and Heritage
2011). The current population of the area is 202 160, spread across 59
344 sq km with a number of major towns. Due to the size of the area
temperatures vary greatly, annual mean range between 9C in the high
mountains and 17C on the plains. Average annual rainfall varies falling
between 653mm on flats and 1765mm in national parks however, some
areas receive as little as 31mm monthly average (Department of
Environment and Heritage 2011). Land uses within the region are mostly
agricultural related as this is a main industry.

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Figure 1 (Source: Department of Environment and

Climate Change 2008)

The Department of Environment and Climate Change (2008 pp. 2) predicts

the most critical influence climate change will have on the New England
region will be the combination of increased temperatures and a drier
climate. Temperatures are predicted to increase throughout the New
England Region. An increase of 2C 3C is predicted through winter and
spring and an equal increase in night temperatures (Department of
Environment and Climate Change 2008). Summer and autumn
temperature increases fall between 1.5C 3C (Department of
Environment and Climate Change 2008). The predicted amount of rainfall
is expected to be less frequent with higher intensity (Department of
Environment and Climate Change 2008, CSIRO 2008). This combined with
hotter conditions results in a drier climate. This climate will have number
or repercussions as expressed in figure two.

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Figure 2 (Source
Author)

The consistency of hotter drier conditions will have a devastating impact

on the agricultural sector. The altered climate inhibits the ability of crops
to develop (Abrol and Ingram 1996, Schlenker and Roberts 2009).
As figure three displays, there is a relationship between temperature and
the ability for crops to develop however, once a threshold is surpassed a
significant decline in crop development is observed (Abrol and Ingram 1996,
Schlenker & Roberts 2009). With the changing climate, livestock numbers
will decline thanks to a combination of heat stress, diminishing food and
water scarcity (Thorton et al 2009, Andrews 2010). As the total gross
value of agricultural production in the New England region is $319.4
million a serious problem is presented (ABS 2014).

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Figure 3 (Source: Abrol and Ingram

1996)

The most probable scenario predicted for the region is the A1B scenario
(Kingwell 2006, CSIRO 2001). This scenario equates to a loss of $50 784
000 by 2030 to the regions agricultural sector (Kingwell 2006, CSIRO
2001). Figure four demonstrates the rise in average temperatures
throughout Australia under various scenarios. It can be concluded that
under a scenario other that A1B will be catastrophic for agriculture in the
New England region as the effects outlined prior will be amplified.

Figure 4 (Source: Modified From

CSIRO 2007)

People employed within the agricultural sector of the region stand to lose
a significant amount of crops, livestock and money. People employed in
the sector may lose employment having a significant effect on mental
health and placing strain on local economies that rely on agriculture. Due
to the changing topography of the region some areas such as the south
western are will experience a small rise in mean temperatures. This will
result in a widening of the growing season (Department of Environment
and Climate Change 2008).
As the temperature increases so too will the demand for electricity as
people will use air conditioners, fridges and freezers. Although 88% of
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Australias electricity is generated from fossil fuels this will contribute to

the positive feedback of co2 emissions (Origin Energy n.d.). With
increased profits companies may invest in sustainable production.
Moreover as communities become more aware they may take it upon
themselves to reduce emissions such as solar panels.
In order to adapt there is a need for the following three responses, firstly a
rise in agricultural research and development investment. The focus
should be on increasing the productivity and yields of crops and livestock
in order to offset climate change effects (Howden et al 2007). While the
effect of climate change on crops occurs locally it is a world-wide issue.
For this reason it is recommended public investments in agricultural
research are not limited to Australia by including international institutions
(Howden et al 2007). Resources should be provided to the sectors
including breeding programmes, biotechnology, cropping systems
management and sectors increasing productivity such as horticulture and
viticulture (Howden et al 2007). The Australian government has a
responsibility to provide funding as there are such heavy economic ties
with exports combined with the production of local food resources.
Although due to the size of the industry throughout Australia private
contributions and private institutions are encouraged to take part.
Farm level adaption responses include the diversification of crops to more
heat tolerant species and varying planting times to accommodate the
early and later seasons, the capturing of rainfall through damns and
irrigation trenches during intense rainfall, altering breeds of livestock to
suit the conditions over time (Howden et al 2007). Although if breeds of
livestock and crops are changed this can crash the price for these
species while raising the prices for the previously used species which will
be suited for other regions.
Lastly, incentives of these adaption responses are needed in order to kick
start the changes. Monetary incentives should be granted for adopting
newer technology and other adaption methods mentioned beforehand.
Additionally Nossal and Gooday (2009) recommend government policies
are needed improving labour skills, education, health (physical and
mental) and most importantly communication infrastructure in agricultural
communities.
These adaption methods will be taken up due to the number of benefits
agriculture brings to the region of New England. If adaption is not taken up
crop and livestock yields will decrease leading to food shortages,
unemployment, economic down turns, unstable mental health and a drop
in Australian exports lowering GDP. The adaption methods mentioned
beforehand encourage engagement in the agricultural sector such as
employment, research and industry expansion.
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The hotter and drier conditions brought on by climate change will have
damaging impacts for the agricultural sector in the New England region of
New South Wales. These impacts will lead to social, environmental and
significantly the economy of this region. The Australian government must
work in conjunction with private companies in developing and
implementing adaption responses.

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References
Abrol Y, Ingram K (1996). Direct and Indirect Effects of Changing
Hydrological, Pedological and Plant Physiological Processes. In:
Global Climate Change and Agricultural Production, F Bazzaz, W
Sombroek (ed.). Pages 123 140, John Wiley and Sons Ltd,
Chichester, England.
ABS (2011). National Regional Profile: Northern Tablelands (Statistical
Subdivision), The Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, ACT, Australia,
Available online via:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@nrp.nsf/Previousproducts/130
15Industry12005-2009?
opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=13015&issue=20052009&num=&view=
Andrews T (2010). Climate change impacts on northern NSW beef
producers. Australian Farm Business Management Journal 7(2): 7083. Available online via:
http://search.informit.com.au.libraryproxy.griffith.edu.au/fullText;dn=
821267822324782;res=IELBUS
CSIRO (2001). Climate Projections for Australia, Commonwealth Scientific
and Industrial Research Organisation Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Available online via: http://www.cmar.csiro.au/eprint/open/projections2001.pdf
CSIRO (2007). Climate Change in Australia Technical Report (Chapter 5,
Regional Climate Change Projections). 27 pages. Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Canberra, ACT,
Australia. Available online via:
http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/documents/resources/T
R_Web_Ch5i.pdf
Department of Environment and Climate Change (2008) Summery of
climate change impacts New England/North West NSW region, NSW
Climate Action Plan, 4 pages. Department of Environment and
Climate Change, South Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Department of Environment and Heritage (2011) New England Tableland
Bioregion, available online via:
http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/bioregions/NewEnglandTablelan
dBioregion.htm
Howden MS, Soussasa JF, Tubiello FN, Chhetri N, Dunlop M, Meinke H
(2007). Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proceedings of the
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National Academy of Sciences, 104(50), 19691-19696. Available online via:

http://www.pnas.org/content/104/50/19691.short
Kingwell R (2006). Climate change in Australia: agricultural impacts and
adaptation. Australasian Agribusiness Review 14(1). available online
via: http://www.agrifood.info/review/2006/Kingwell.htm
Nossal K, Sheng Y (2010). Productivity growth in broadacre and dairy
industries in ABARE Australian farm survey results 2007-08 TO
2009-10. Technical Report. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and
Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra ACT, Australia.
available online via:
http://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/economy/economy_10/af
sr_2010.pdf
Origin Energy (n.d.). Energy In Australia. Available online via:
http://www.originenergy.com.au/4224/Energy-in-Australia
Schlenker W, Roberts J (2009). Non linier temperature effects indicate
severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change.
Precedings of the National Academy of sciences 106(37): 15 59415598.
Thorton PK, van de Steeg J, Notenbaert A, Herrero H (2009). The impacts
of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing
countries: A review of what we know and what we need to know.
Agricultural Systems 101(3): 113-127. Available online via:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X0900058
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